#PCEAndPayrollsWeek

A packed US macro calendar could reset rate expectations and volatility this week. First, August JOLTS arrives Sept 29 at 10:00 AM ET, offering an early read on labor demand through job openings, hiring and quits. Then August Personal Income and Outlays lands Sept 30 at 8:30 AM ET, including headline and core PCE inflation. This release also begins BEA’s annual update of the national accounts, so markets may watch not only the latest inflation print but also revisions to the historical path for income, spending and prices. September nonfarm payrolls follow Oct 2 at 8:30 AM ET. August payrolls rose by 162K, while unemployment held at 4.1% and labor-force participation edged up to 61.6%. This time, the headline jobs number will be only part of the story. Wage growth, unemployment, participation and revisions to prior months could all shape the market reaction. The Fed raised the target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% on Sept 16. Its latest projections showed a 4.1% median policy rate for year-end 2026, leaving another move possible, but not guaranteed, before the next FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28. Fed communication could add context. Governor Michael Barr discusses the economic outlook on Sept 29, Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller speak on Sept 30, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson discusses the US economy and monetary policy on Oct 1. Potential market setups: · Sticky PCE + resilient hiring could reinforce higher-for-longer expectations, lifting yields and the dollar while pressuring rate-sensitive assets. · Softer inflation + weaker labor data could reduce near-term tightening expectations, though details and revisions will matter. · A mixed outcome, such as softer payrolls but firm wages, could produce a less straightforward reaction across Treasuries, US stocks, gold and BTC. BTC remains sensitive to shifts in real yields, dollar liquidity and risk appetite, so the Fed’s interpretation of the data may matter as much as the headline numbers. Which matters most for BTC this week: inflation, jobs or the Fed’s reaction function? #PCEAndPayrollsWeek

#PCEAndPayrollsWeek This week feels like a two-part test for the Fed’s next move 🗓️ August PCE arrives on September 30, followed by September payrolls on October 2. With inflation still elevated, the economy holding up and Treasury yields already high, both reports could shift expectations quickly. The tricky part is that strong data may not feel entirely positive right now. Persistent inflation could support further tightening, while another resilient jobs report might give the Fed more room to keep rates restrictive. On the other hand, softer numbers could ease pressure on yields but raise fresh questions about economic momentum. Fed officials Barr and Jefferson are also scheduled to speak, so markets will be interpreting both the data and the messaging around it. I’m curious which report ends up carrying more weight this time: inflation or employment 👀

Inflation first. Jobs next. This could be a big week for the Fed narrative. PCE and payrolls are two reports I’ll be watching together rather than separately. PCE tells us whether inflation pressure is improving, while payrolls give us a clearer picture of how much strength is left in the labor market. Personally, I think the most interesting scenario would be sticky inflation combined with strong jobs. That would make it much harder for the Fed to justify easing policy anytime soon. On the other hand, softer inflation together with weaker hiring could completely change the rate conversation again. For BTC and equities, I’m less interested in guessing each number and more interested in how Treasury yields and the dollar react once both reports are out. One report can create a headline. Two reports pointing in the same direction can change the whole macro story. 👀 This week, I’m watching the combination not just the individual numbers. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek $BTC

The Week Ahead: Monday: Start of the @BTCtreasuries Conference in NY. @Cryptonomista keynote at 11.55 AM Tuesday: Australian Central Bank expected to raise rates by +0.25% to 4.60% Wednesday: U.S. Core PCE Friday: BTC mining difficulty expected to increase by +1.6% to 134.9T Catch the full details in our Bitcoin Economic Calendar for the week of September 28th:

PCE and payrolls will test whether markets can keep treating resilience as benign. Elevated inflation alongside high Treasury yields leaves little room for a soft reading in either release: stronger data may sharpen policy sensitivity, while softer data must be convincingly broad to ease it. For BTC, the cross-asset reaction may matter more than the headline alone. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek

Two macro events could set the tone for markets this week. 📅 Sept. 30: August PCE inflation 📅 Oct. 2: September jobs report With inflation elevated, yields high and the Fed back in tightening mode, both releases could move Treasuries, equities, gold and BTC quickly. Fed officials Barr and Jefferson are also speaking. Will the data reinforce higher-for-longer—or shift the rate narrative? #PCEAndPayrollsWeek

#PCEAndPayrollsWeek could decide BTC’s next move. Hot PCE + strong jobs, yields/DXY, pressure on $BTC $Cool PCE weak jobs ,rate pressure, supportive for $BTC Hot PCE + weak jobs = the tricky one. If inflation stays hot but jobs weaken, what reacts first: BTC selling off on risk-off, or BTC rallying on easier-policy expectations? $BTC $CL $BZ

🚨 CRYPTO MARKET OPEN — SEPTEMBER 28, 2026 | WEEKLY MARKET RADAR 📊 The new trading week begins with Bitcoin holding its recent gains while Ethereum and Solana remain in focus for potential momentum shifts. 🟠 $BTC | $84.5K–$86K Watch Zone 🟣 $ETH | $2.70K–$2.80K Watch Zone 🟢 $SOL | $120–$125 Key Battle Area 📈 Market Structure & Momentum • $BTC — Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can maintain its recent strength and challenge the $87K–$88K resistance region. • $ETH — The $2,700 area remains an important reference point. A sustained move above $2,800 could strengthen the recovery structure. • $SOL — Holding above $120 keeps the breakout discussion alive, while $125 remains a level to monitor for renewed buying pressure. 📰 What's Driving the Market? 🔥 Bitcoin's recent rally has coincided with strong spot ETF demand, renewed institutional interest, and improved risk appetite across technology stocks. 💰 Strategy's reported purchase of 950 BTC, worth approximately $75.7 million, has also kept institutional accumulation in the spotlight. ⚠️ Macro Events to Watch 📅 September 30 — U.S. PCE inflation data 📅 September 30 — ADP employment report 📅 September 29 — JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence These releases could influence Treasury yields, dollar strength, and short-term crypto volatility. 📌 FOMC Calendar Update: The September 15–16 meeting has already concluded. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is October 27–28. 🎯 This Week's Trading Focus BTC: Can buyers reclaim $87K? ETH: Will $2.8K turn into support? SOL: Can price sustain a move above $125? 💬 Which asset are you watching most closely this week — $BTC, $ETH, or $SOL? 👇 #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #PCEInflation #ETFFlows #MarketRadar

📅 Markets are pricing a 64.2% chance of another 25 bps Fed hike in October That number is the whole story this week Four data points land in four days — JOLTS Tuesday, Core PCE and GDP Wednesday, ISM Manufacturing Thursday, NFP and Unemployment Friday $BTC Inflation and jobs decide it. If the prints come in hot, those hike odds don't stay at 64.2% $ETH

What could move US stocks this week? PCE inflation and the September jobs report return to focus, while Micron earnings will test whether AI infrastructure demand remains strong. • Sep. 29: US JOLTS job openings • Sep. 30: US PCE inflation + Micron earnings • Oct. 1: Accenture + Nike earnings • Oct. 2: US September jobs report Can AI stocks stay strong if Treasury yields rise again, and will consumer demand remain resilient? Read the full outlook: