Economist ‘extremely confident’ bull cycle is not over, expects less volatile super cycle
Economist Alex Krüger dismissed concerns about the crypto bull cycle ending, arguing that widespread bearish sentiment creates a contrarian buying opportunity as markets prepare for recovery.
In an Aug. 30 X post, Krüger noted that “most crypto charts now look so broken and bearish that is bullish,” citing significant long liquidations as evidence of capitulation.
The economist positioned bullishly for the coming week after experiencing losses earlier in the trading session.
Krüger observed that the recent market decline primarily affected Bitcoin and Ethereum, while altcoins stopped crashing earlier in the session. He added that such divergence often signals upcoming strength,
He emphasized that optimal buying opportunities emerge “when everybody is panicking, and not when we are all celebrating.”
The economist expects market volatility to persist until the Federal Reserve’s next meeting, noting that a rate cut remains incompletely priced into current valuations. Even with potential downside risks, Krüger expressed “extreme confidence that this is not the end of the cycle.”
No blow-off tops for now
When questioned about the longevity of the cycle without a blow-off top, Krüger explained his “super cycle” thesis. This framework envisions key assets continuing higher with “smaller dips and a lower slope” rather than traditional manic runs followed by major corrections.
Krüger does not anticipate a blow-off top in 2025, citing insufficient conditions for major manic moves except possibly for Solana due to accumulating demand.
Furthermore, he projected that changes in the Federal Reserve’s composition in 2026 could trigger the next major bull market peak.
Contrary to bearish commentators who suggest excessive optimism requires crushing, Krüger assessed the current sentiment as balanced, with both bullish and bearish perspectives fairly represented.
‘Statistical nonsense’
He dismissed September’s bearish seasonality as “statistical nonsense” from pattern-seeking behavior rather than meaningful market conditions. He expects trading to alternate between long and short liquidations until Fed policy decisions establish a clear trend.
While acknowledging that a 25 basis point cut would not surprise markets, he questioned whether it could serve as a catalyst that may trigger the blow-off top that many analysts predict.
Krüger then highlighted options skew data showing puts trading at premiums to calls, indicating fear-driven positioning. This technical setup, combined with liquidation-driven selling pressure, creates conditions favoring contrarian positioning.
The economist’s analysis suggests that the current market weakness represents temporary volatility rather than a structural breakdown, positioning the market for recovery as liquidation waves clear weak hands.
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