#LongYields5%NewNormal
About LongYields5%NewNormal
Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
رائج
الأحدث
LongYields5%NewNormal المنشورات الشائعة
-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
أحدث البيانات
تجاوز عائد سندات الخزانة الأمريكية لأجل 10 سنوات حاجز 5٪، محققا أعلى مستوى له منذ عدة سنوات. ارتفعت العوائد الخالية من المخاطر، وبيتكوين تحت ضغط في الوقت نفسه، وصناديق صناديق المؤشرات المتداولة الفورية تستمر في التدفق للخارج.
إجماع السوق
يعتقد الجانب السلبي أنه مع تزايد جاذبية عوائد سندات الخزانة الأمريكية، ستنسحب الأموال من الأصول الخطرة مثل العملات المشفرة؛ ويعتقد آخرون أن المشكلة الرئيسية هي أن الإفراط في إصدار السندات المالية دفع أسعار الفائدة للأعلى، وقد لا تبقى الصدمات النبضية قصيرة الأجل مرتفعة لفترة طويلة.
تحليل المنطق الأساسي
تعد سندات الخزانة الأمريكية ركيزة عالمية لتسعير الأصول، حيث تتجاوز العوائد 5٪، وتزداد تكلفة الفرصة البديلة لحمل البيتكوين. ستعطي الصناديق الأولوية لسندات الخزانة الدقيقة، وشهية المخاطر تتناقص، وقطاع العملات الرقمية معرض للضغط. في المستقبل، سيكون التركيز على بيانات اجتماعات لجنة السوق المفتوحة الفيدرالية.
آراء شخصية (آراء شخصية فقط، ليست نصائح استثمارية) #本周FOMC揭晓 يمكن أن تتحقق زيادات في الفائدة؟
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
TODAY: The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points today, a move that would mark its first increase since 2023.
$BTC
In the past decade, Bitcoin told its story through the "halving cycle."\n\nIn the next decade, Bitcoin will tell its story through the "fiat credit collapse."\n\nAnd today,\n\nThe US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the last time was in 2007.\n\nThe Japanese 10-year government bond yield has broken 3%, the last time was in 1996.\n\nThe US and Japanese bond markets are handing the script directly to $BTC.\n\nThe question is: can you endure the darkest moment before dawn?
🚨 THE MARKET IS HUNTING LEVERAGE AGAIN
Yesterday’s sell-off wiped out hundreds of millions in crypto longs.
BTC fell toward the $75K area, while ETH dropped toward $2,400.
And now comes the bigger test:
With the U.S. 10Y yield recently moving above 5%, risk assets are facing a much tougher macro environment.
❌ No FOMO
❌ No revenge trades
❌ No oversized leverage
✅ Wait for BTC confirmation
✅ Keep dry powder
✅ Let the market show its hand first
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Trading #OKX
#DailyOrbit
#LongYields5%NewNormal Long-term Treasury yields held near 5% even after the Fed’s September 16 rate hike. The 10-year yield dipped toward 4.95% before returning close to 5%, while the 30-year yield stayed above 5%. Chair Walsh attributed long-end pressure to stronger growth, AI-related capital expenditure and geopolitical risk, but did not directly address fiscal deficits.
If the 2-year yield stabilizes near 4.73% while the 10-year and 30-year remain elevated, the market may be pricing a structural increase in capital demand, inflation risk and term premium. That could establish a higher floor for borrowing costs and create continuing pressure on high-beta assets. Technology companies, private AI firms and crypto markets will need stronger cash-flow growth to offset the higher discount rate.
