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The Strait of Hormuz situation is starting to look less like a negotiation and more like a carefully managed standoff. 👀 Trump has once again taken a hard line, claiming the U.S. has “full control” of the Strait and describing the blockade as a “steel wall.” Yet just days earlier, U.S. officials were suggesting an agreement was close, with Trump saying negotiations were making “overall progress.” Iran’s foreign minister then pushed back, saying Tehran was negotiating with Oman — not directly with Washington. So where does that leave us? Iran and Oman appear to have made progress on the technical side of navigation, including revised route coordinates. But Tehran’s position remains firm: agreeing on shipping routes does not mean the Strait is reopening. Iran continues to demand that the U.S. lift the blockade and meet additional conditions before normal passage resumes. The situation became even more complicated after U.S. forces reportedly took military action in the Gulf of Oman against a Panama-flagged cargo vessel heading toward Iran, claiming the ship ignored warnings and attempted to breach the blockade. That makes the current messaging difficult to reconcile: negotiations on one side, military pressure on the other. For now, both sides appear to have reasons to keep the standoff going. Iran controls a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments, while the U.S. wants a resolution without appearing to make major concessions. That creates plenty of room for pressure, threats, and headlines about a potential deal — without an immediate breakthrough. The next major date to watch is August 18, when the previous memorandum’s 60-day window expires. Expect plenty of headlines and potentially sharp market reactions around that deadline. 🌍 Market impact As long as uncertainty around Hormuz remains elevated, oil and gold have a fundamental source of support. $BZ Brent crude recently closed around $88.90 and briefly touched $90, while gold pushed above $4,400. #CPIEasesHikeBets #AIInfraEarningsWatch