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#BTC spot ETF net inflow nearly $3 billion for 7 consecutive days #US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure intensifies
Bitcoin's "weight" is judged not by price fluctuations but by chip accumulation; who is hoarding is the real signal
Many people watch the market until dizzy, getting excited with a slight rise and panicking with a slight fall. Candlesticks jump around, and emotions follow suit.
But what really matters is not the price, but who actually holds the coins.
The answer is: they are moving from exchanges into "cold storage."
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges have dropped back to 2019 levels, about 2.7 million coins, with hundreds of thousands flowing out since the beginning of the year. This is not retail traders flipping coins, but spot ETFs and listed companies continuously accumulating. BlackRock alone holds over 740,000 coins, Strategy has 840,000, and the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund has made IBIT its top holding.
Chips are transferring from short-term traders to allocators, moving from hot wallets to custody accounts. ETFs and corporate treasuries combined have locked up over 2 million bitcoins, nearly one-tenth of the total supply.
But don't get carried away: hoarding coins does not equal pumping the price. The Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund did not move a single share last quarter; holding without moving does not mean adding more. Moreover, on-chain data shows that coins did flow out of exchanges this week, but it was just a concentrated withdrawal of 19,000 coins on one day, with little activity on other days. With US Treasury yields still hanging, no institution, no matter how deep their pockets, will blindly rush in.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC The crypto market stabilizes, with the altcoin season index surging to 56, a three-month high. In the CoinDesk 100, 93 coins are up, with funds clearly overflowing from Bitcoin. BTC is stuck at 84000, with a total liquidation amount of 93.15 million; longs and shorts are roughly balanced, with shorts slightly more, indicating bears are being passively beaten. Bitget was hacked for 350 million, yet the market barely reacted, showing strong sentiment. On the macro side, news of negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz lifted European stocks at the open, risk appetite is warming up.
I squatted in the guard booth, finished reviewing this round of data, and casually opened my thermos to take a sip of herbal tea.
ETH current price is 2690.69. The 2700 to 2720 range above is a dense liquidation zone for longs; liquidation size above 2700 is much larger than at 2680, so a spike up is just giving away heads. Below, 2660 to 2640 is a thick accumulation of shorts, serving as short-term real support. EMA moving averages are tangled, MACD green bars are shrinking, RSI is approaching overbought; bullish momentum is visibly weakening, making a pullback more likely than a breakout.
Trading bias is bearish. Enter shorts in batches between 2690 and 2705, with stop loss above 2725. First take profit at 2660, second at 2645. If 2640 is broken down with volume, target 2600 directly. Defense point is 2725; if broken, admit the mistake and exit. Don't be greedy; this position is just a choppy grind.
$ETH
#特朗普拒绝伊朗7天方案，霍尔木兹重开受阻
@OKX星球 Welding the load-bearing walls of seven US stocks directly into the DeFi foundation beams—that's what Aave V4 did on September 25th—not just renovation, but structural modification.
I've worked in super high-rise construction for twenty years, and the thing I fear most is hearing the client say, "Show me the renderings first." The whitepaper is the rendering. What truly determines whether this building can withstand an 8-magnitude wind and 20 years of settlement are the geological survey report, pile foundation depth, and concrete grade. Stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft are ready-made steel frames poured over decades of real trading; turning them into token collateral is equivalent to moving the cast-in-place framework of Manhattan's core directly onto the blockchain as the foundation. This time, it's not about putting stocks on the shelf to sell, but transforming stocks from "decorative surfaces" into "load-bearing components." The initial collateral cap of $29 million is, frankly, the first stage of pile testing—after pile driving, a static load test is conducted, first checking single pile bearing capacity before discussing the main structure.
The linkage with the XINTC line is more like an integrated pipeline network for an entire district. US stock market opens during the day for pouring, while on-chain lending is like nighttime curing; previously, these two shifts never interacted. Now that tokenized stocks have entered the collateral pool, it's like connecting two independent pipeline networks. Daytime stock price fluctuations flow through token prices directly to the on-chain liquidation line; on weekends, US stocks are closed but the chain never rests. This time difference is a structural seam filled with leverage seepage. As the designer, I must say: if the node lacks flexible handling, thermal stress will eventually crack the beam ends.
What’s truly worth pondering is not how much USDC can be borrowed, but the "qualified non-US user" red line. This is the fire compartment on my blueprint. The compliance boundary determines how far the building grows; if the firewall is misplaced by even one meter, the entire evacuation system must be redrawn. Aave selecting seven stocks as qualified collateral means choosing seven columns with the clearest load paths, but each column’s axial compression ratio and eccentricity must be calibrated with real transaction and liquidation data later.
There’s another structural risk: valuation anchors. The on-chain oracle reads US stock intraday prices, but DeFi operates 24/7. When US stocks are static at night and on-chain prices freeze, this "static" itself is a weak layer. The biggest taboo in old building renovations is inserting a layer with sudden stiffness change into the load-bearing system—when an earthquake hits, that layer fails first. Whether tokenized stocks as collateral become that stiffness-change layer in the entire DeFi building depends on whether the price feed mechanism can provide damping.
In the long run, this is the first formal reinforcement diagram integrating traditional equities into the on-chain balance sheet. If the static load tests of the seven columns pass, the next step will inevitably be scaling to more assets and higher limits. Then it’s not just about lending demand; the entire on-chain asset load distribution will be rewritten.
But the design institute has a saying: the shorter the load path in a building, the less it can tolerate a single column cramping. The concentration of seven stocks is exactly those seven columns. Now all are under the same collateral ratio and liquidation logic—this is called uniform column stiffness on the same floor, good for torsion resistance, but if one column has a material defect, the whole floor will shift laterally.
My judgment is: this is not an addition, it’s laying the foundation. The value of the foundation is not in today’s load tonnage, but in how tall a building it can support in the future. And the vertical deviation of each pile in the foundation must be measured using liquidation data. #tokenizedstocksonaaveI’m starting to pay more attention to relative strength.
BTC and ETH can rise without the whole altcoin market participating.
That’s why I’m comparing charts instead of watching one coin in isolation.
$BTC → market direction
$ETH → major confirmation
$SOL → L1 momentum
$SUI → ecosystem strength
$LINK → infrastructure
The interesting question isn’t:
“What is pumping?”
It’s:
“Which assets are holding strength when the market cools down?”
That usually tells a much better story. The chart shows a sharp surge in the share of AI-related bond issuance (Broader AI-related IG and *Hyperscalers) which now surpasses the share of the Big 6 Banks in the credit market. The massive capital required for AI infrastructure expansion has led tech giants (hyperscalers) to rush to issue debt to finance data centers and energy needs. This marks a structural shift where the AI sector becomes the main driver of growth in the global investment grade market. What is the impact on the Market? BTC doesn’t need to break out today to give us information.
$BTC is still around $84K after trading above $87K earlier this week.
What interests me now is the behavior around the level.
Are buyers defending it?
Is volume returning?
Are sellers actually gaining control?
I’d rather read the reaction than predict the next candle.
Sometimes the most useful market signal is what price refuses to do.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading$ONE is up 14% around $0.002679, but the displayed volume is only about $1.87M, so I’m not chasing this spike. I’m watching $0.00260–0.00265 for a controlled retest. If buyers defend that zone and reclaim $0.00270 with stronger volume, I’d consider continuation. Entry: $0.00260–0.00265. SL: $0.00250. TP1: $0.00275, TP2: $0.00282, TP3: $0.00290, TP4: $0.00300. R:R can reach 1:4+. If $0.00250 breaks, I’m out. Low volume means confirmation matters even more here. I won’t chase the first spike.While browsing the market today, I noticed a coin, NEAR. Current price is $5.54, up 15.07% in 24 hours, with a high of $5.54. But look at the weekly chart — just a week ago it was $3.6, now $5.54, nearly an 80% increase in a week. Why this surge? It's not hype, there's real substance behind it. First, Zcash chose NEAR. $2.4 billion worth of ZEC trading volume flows through the NEAR Intents network. To translate: Zcash's own on-chain trading data is insufficient, so it directly uses NEAR's privacy layer for transactions. This isn't cooperation, it's a migration. Second, on September 17, NEAR launched Confidential Intents — all perpetual contract trades are private by default. Using Trusted Execution Environment (TEE) to separate users' wallet addresses from their trading actions. Others can see that you traded, but not who traded. Third, NEAR has been deployed on the Hyperliquid spot market. Hyperliquid is currently the hottest decentralized perpetual contract exchange; NEAR being on its spot market means it has entered the largest DeFi traffic pool. The data side is also cooperating. NEAR Intents cumulative trading volume has reached $29.3 billion. TVL hit an all-time high of $256 million. VWAP has maintained $3.33 for three consecutive days, and milestone rewards have been distributed. Bitwise also released a report, with a baseline scenario predicting NEAR to 2My favorite chart today might not be the one with the biggest move.
It might be the one that refuses to give its move back.
That’s the difference I’m watching.
BTC around $84.5K.
ETH around $2.7K.
SOL around $122. :contentReference[oaicite:5]{index=5}
Crypto traders love the breakout candle.
I’m more interested in what happens 10 candles later.
Does strength remain?
Does volume follow?
Do buyers defend the level?
That’s where a chart starts telling a story.
What are you studying today? 剛刷到星球這一頁幾乎被 ZEC 佔滿——空單被磨的截圖、平完兩小時又被拉一截的懊悔，刷得比標籤還密。比較能對上產品節奏的是另一句：Grayscale 的 Zcash ETF 排著要按 3 拆 1 後的價錢開交易，不少人把這當敘事燃料。 廣場熱度上升欄也掛著它。盤面吵歸吵，我比較在意拆股標籤過完之後這股討論還剩多少——還是週末把情緒掛熱、過完就散，標籤自己不保證路徑。Altcoin season is late, or has the script changed? My analysis:
1. Capital: BTC spot ETF has had net inflows close to $3 billion over 7 consecutive days; the money hasn't left but is more selective. Buy the leaders first, then talk about spillover.
2. Market: UNI broke 10, NEAR holds above 5, ZEC consolidates high around 1600, HYPE approaches 100. Some segments have already gone bullish, just without fanfare to notify everyone.
3. Macro: Long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure heats up, cheap money is being suppressed. A full altcoin season requires liquidity, not just shouting.
4. Sentiment: You keep asking when altcoin season will come, but strong coins are answering: first look at narratives, chips, and support. By the time everyone confirms, usually only relay risk remains.
However, ETF net inflows still signal a bottom. If long-term yields fall, rotation will spread; if they continue rising, the strong get stronger and the weak decline quietly. Don't ask about the season, first watch the liquidity level. $BTC is a thermometer, not the only answer.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 QNT's current price of 199.12 has already reached the upper edge of the dense liquidation zone between 193.5 and 200.4. This position is either a consolidation or a breakout point. The SEC's update on the crypto asset FAQ including innovation exemptions has made market sentiment short-term bullish. The expected coin-stock correlation provides a liquidity backdrop for institutional narrative tokens like QNT.
From the liquidation structure perspective, there is a strong liquidation zone near 189.88, but more importantly, there is a bidirectional accumulation of longs and shorts between 193.5 and 200.4. Shorts will have very dense stop losses above 200. As long as the price breaks through 200.4 with volume, short stop-loss orders and profit-taking buybacks will be forced to chase, instantly amplifying upward momentum. Although short-term indicators are overbought, the EMA is still in a bullish alignment, indicating the trend has not deteriorated.
I just parked the car by the roadside, my phone kept buzzing with order reminders. I glanced at the market and decided to take this trade.
Operationally, do not chase highs; enter on a pullback between 197.5 and 198.3, with a stop loss at 194.7—if it breaks below, admit defeat and exit. First take profit at 204.6, second take profit at 208.5. If it breaks through 200.4 with volume and holds above, lightly add to longs, move stop loss up to 200.1, target 207.2.
$QNT
#特朗普拒绝伊朗7天方案，霍尔木兹重开受阻
@OKX星球 $ONE The most unusual detail today is not the +26.59% increase, but the funding rate dropping to -0.2653% — the price stands above the upper Bollinger Band at 0.0026843, yet shorts are still paying longs. This "price up, fee negative" divergence indicates that shorts have not conceded during the rally; instead, they are continuously adding positions to resist, with the long-short battle at a critical squeeze point.
From a technical perspective, MA5=0.0024932 has clearly crossed above MA20=0.0022579, signaling a bullish trend structure; the MACD histogram +7.955e-05 maintains bullish momentum. However, RSI=76.3 has entered the overbought zone, with a 30-candle amplitude of 29.19%, indicating a non-negligible short-term spike risk. On the funding side, the negative rate means short position costs are continuously accumulating. If the price holds above MA5, short covering could trigger a second upward push; conversely, a rapid drop below 0.0025 would signal profit-taking by longs and a return of the funding rate.
The Fear and Greed Index is 70 (Greed), showing a somewhat heated but not extreme sentiment. Combined with the negative funding rate, capital currently remains on the long side. I don't dare to short this funding rate; I've suffered losses with lab. Except for the last drop, those who shorted lab barely managed to recover the funding fees, and they might not even break even $ONE Nearly $2.4B flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs last week — the strongest weekly inflow in almost a year. Even more interesting:
• BTC ETFs: ~$2.4B inflows
• ETH ETFs: ~$690M
• SOL: ~$188M The important part isn't just the size of the numbers. It's the type of money. Retail-driven pumps can move fast and disappear just as quickly. ETF buying is different: it represents continued demand through regulated investment channels rather than leverage or perpetual-futures funding. But here's the key queBTC is stuck around the 83,000 mark, with intraday volatility as thin as paper; ETH is dozing around 2,600, and short-term traders are too lazy to watch. Platform tokens are even more straightforward—when the market doesn't move, they don't even bother to flip the script.
But beneath the ETF channel, there’s a silent undercurrent: funds have been flowing in net for several consecutive days, like stacking sandbags in a corner—quietly, but steadily thickening the base. What about retail investors? They’re fixated on geopolitical news and options expiration dates, hands hovering over the keyboard, hesitating to act.
The market is thus twisted: there’s support below, but no chase above; volume contracts, yet contract open interest quietly climbs. Both bulls and bears are enduring, waiting for the other to blink first, waiting for a volume breakout candle to tear open the gap.
Don’t be fooled by low volatility. The quieter the pond, the more likely it hides a swift current. Once the direction is chosen, the catch-up rally or sell-off won’t be gentle.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC Double-edged liquidity: 86K and 82K become short-term trigger points
Bitcoin leverage is accumulating at both ends. Near the upper 86,000 USD level, about $843 million in short positions face liquidation risk; near the lower 82,000 USD level, about $843 million in long positions are also under pressure. The symmetrical amounts mean that once the price hits these levels, it can easily trigger a chain liquidation, but the liquidation zones are merely volatility amplifiers, not inevitable targets.
Capital flow is relatively warm: This week, BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of about $2.4 billion, and ETH spot ETFs also attracted nearly $690 million. The incremental funds provide confidence for the bulls but do not mean that leverage won't be swept first in the short term. The key remains at 86K and 82K: a breakout upward requires volume confirmation, while a breakdown downward may trigger long stop losses.
Strategically, don't treat liquidation charts as roadmaps. Wait for volume, structural breakouts, or false breakout recovery signals before deciding on positions. Leave enough buffer for leverage, set clear stop losses, and stay flexible. The most dangerous times in the market are often not when there is no direction, but when both sides think they are safe.
$BTC
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 PONS: Major Positive News + Massive Burn, Why Does It Still Struggle to Avoid Decline?
Core Summary: Burning is a slow supply contraction (long-term logic), while the coin price in the short term is determined by buying and selling forces; positive news has long been priced in, and the realization of positive news is a window for profit-taking.
1. Positive news has been fully priced in by the market in advance; buying on expectations, selling on facts
80% of PONS protocol revenue is used for buyback and burn, and the tokenized stock RWA narrative were all factored into valuation during the early rally phase.
When daily revenue data and large burn announcements are officially released, they no longer come as surprises beyond market expectations.
- Early low-entry investors wait for positive news to attract bullish capital to take over, using the opportunity to sell and realize profits.
- Simply repeating “high burn, high revenue” cannot bring incremental funds, only triggers old capital to cash out.
2. The biggest pain point is the chip structure: almost fully circulating, huge profit-taking selling pressure
Almost the entire supply of PONS is circulating with no large lock-up buffer. Early chip costs were extremely low, with substantial unrealized gains:
1. Whenever the price slightly rallies on positive news, whales and early investors continuously sell;
2. Burning is a passive, gradual deflation; the speed of burning chips cannot keep up with the speed of whales selling chips;
Burning can only slowly reduce long-term supply, and cannot immediately offset short-term large sell pressure.
3. Revenue foundation highly depends on Meme hype; RWA is still a long-term story
1. Currently, the vast majority of platform fee income comes from Meme coin issuance and trading. Meme market cycles are strong; once the sector cools down, platform fees will quickly decline, and buyback and burn funds will shrink accordingly.
2. Tokenized stock RWA currently contributes almost no revenue and is a future narrative. The market will not sustain high valuations for distant stories.
Simply put: burn data looks good, but the underlying cash flow foundation is unstable.
4. Small-cap coin attributes, weak risk resistance, easily suppressed by the overall market environment
PONS is a small-cap coin with limited capital capacity.
Even if the project itself has positive news, if the overall crypto market risk appetite declines, capital will prioritize withdrawing from small-cap targets.
During market pullbacks, small-cap coins often fall much more than large-cap leaders like BTC and UNI; single project positives struggle to counteract overall market capital outflows.
5. Distinguish two things: fundamental value ≠ short-term coin price
- Fundamentals: buyback and burn, protocol revenue, RWA layout determine the long-term value ceiling;
- Short-term market: determined by chip structure, whale behavior, incremental capital, and market sentiment.
Therefore, it is possible for fundamental data to continuously improve while the coin price keeps weakening. Fundamentals represent the long-term logic, while the candlestick chart reflects the short-term result of capital competition.HYPE 93, BICO 0.019, BEAT 0.10, RE 0.47, which small coins are moving?
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
Early Monday, the market was weak. Let me talk about the four oversold small coins one by one.
$HYPE around 92.96, up 1.2% in 24h, 97% protocol revenue buyback supports it, 90 is the lifeline, the strongest bottom, the anchor.
$BICO around 0.019, up 2.3% in 24h, account abstraction AA core, weakly consolidating at the bottom, 0.018 is support; if it breaks 0.018, stop loss and follow the repair.
$BEAT around 0.0996, up 4.5% in 24h, oversold micro market, thin liquidity, reduce immediately on impulse, 0.10 is resistance, don’t catch the falling knife.
$RE around 0.471, up 3.9% in 24h, RWA small coin recovering to resistance at 0.48, 0.45 is support.
HYPE 93 supports the bottom, BICO 0.019 and RE 0.47 follow, BEAT 0.10 up 4.5% on impulse, all small coins are rebounding from oversold conditions. Don’t chase if resistance is not broken; reduce BEAT immediately on impulse.Starlink | Key Focus This Week: No Gambling on Monday, Wait for the Trend
This week, I'm not in a hurry to judge which way BTC will ultimately go.
First, let's see how the news and macro variables unfold.
What the market really needs to focus on now is not the daily swings of several hundred points, but the following key factors:
1. Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens
This is the most direct variable affecting oil prices and geopolitical risk.
2. Whether there is substantive progress in US-Iran negotiations
Not just "preparing to talk," but whether concrete conditions have truly been established.
3. Whether oil prices can continue to decline
Oil prices are the bridge connecting the US-Iran situation and US inflation.
4. The next batch of US inflation and employment data
These data will affect the market's repricing of the Fed's subsequent policies.
5. The 10-year US Treasury yield
If yields remain high, the pressure on risk assets will be hard to completely dissipate.
6. Whether BTC can truly break through the 83100–85200 consolidation range.
The first five are macro factors,
The last one is the answer given by the market.
So the approach this week is simple:
If the news hasn't landed, trade the range;
If the structure hasn't broken, trade the position;
Only after a real breakout, trade the trend.
Especially on Monday, first watch how the news unfolds, as the current situation is prone to fluctuations. Only after the news settles will there be a true big direction $BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普政府拟推海外稳定币计划 Altcoin season hasn't arrived yet, but rotation has already started?😠😠
BTC hasn't experienced a deep pullback, yet ETH has begun to recover first, with SOL, SUI, and OKB heating up alternately. The market is not broadly rising; rather, funds are rapidly switching between strong narratives.
Three key points to watch:
1️⃣ Can BTC digest selling pressure through sideways movement instead of breaking down?
2️⃣ Can ETH spread its local strength to resonate across the sector?
3️⃣ Will incremental funds cluster around the leaders or spread to second- and third-tier coins?
If the first two hold true and volume expands simultaneously, altcoin season may sprout from a structural market; if only a few coins surge without volume follow-through, the rebound may still become a window for reducing positions.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $SUI $OKB
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
(This does not constitute investment advice)Bitcoin is holding near $84,702, up 4.29% over the past 7 days. The next move could test how strong this recovery really is. 📊 What stands out: * Hyperliquid: $1.091B in perp volume vs. $22M spot — nearly 49x the imbalance. * ETF flows: Friday saw $134.5M in net inflows after $504.6M in cumulative outflows since May 1. * Options bias: +30, with $82K as a key price magnet and $88K as the upside target. 🔥 My take: If ETF demand returns and BTC holds above $84K, short covering could fuel a move t#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
Brothers, something big has happened with U.S. Treasuries, possibly more important than the K-line charts we watch every day.
The multi-year inversion of the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields has finally completely ended. Long-term yields are soaring, and the yield curve is steepening sharply. In plain terms: global big money no longer trusts the long-term purchasing power of the dollar, so lending to the U.S. for 10 years requires a higher risk premium. This is not a small matter; it is the deepest sign of cracks in trust toward the paper currency empire.
More importantly, there is a second layer of logic. The Wall Street "60% stocks + 40% bonds" safety model has now completely failed. Treasury prices keep hitting new lows, and traditional safe-haven funds must find new uncorrelated, hard assets to fill their positions. After searching around, $BTC has become that option. Its code rules are transparent, there is zero counterparty risk, and the worse sovereign credit gets, the more it stands out.
So this time is different from before. It’s not just the crypto community calling a bull market; big money outside is reallocating. Independent pricing power is shifting toward $BTC. I’m still holding my base position, bought around 75,000, trailing my stop profits, not rushing to add. Once the big market fully digests this macro narrative, the direction will be clearer. What do you think—can this crack in U.S. Treasuries force funds into crypto?
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $BTC 🔥
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta demand.
If activity fails to follow price, the structure becomes less convincing.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC strengthen Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC weaken Divergence#USTYieldsPressure #TokenizedStocksOnAave Friday night, a worker who got counterattacked by crude oil shorts.🤡
Recently, Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish one after another, pushing US Treasury yields higher and raising funding costs. Crude oil, a commodity influenced by both macro and geopolitical factors, is indeed wildly volatile.🌞
——————
Last night I still felt confident:
$AAVE long position, entered at 138.55, exited at 00:50, +15.84%, earned $10.36;
$ZEC long position, closed at 23:42, +2.88%, earned $0.52.
Almost $11 total, turned off the lights and went to sleep, dreaming of extra chicken legs.
This morning when I opened my eyes:
$CL crude oil short at 90.9, brutally pulled up to 93.94.
Unrealized loss -33.44%, lost $9.72.😭
The hard-earned money from staying up late watching the market all went to fill the crude oil pit. Truly "trading fierce as a tiger, returns stuck in place."
——————
💡 Trading insight:
Why does this always happen?
Quickly take profits on altcoins, but stubbornly hold a 33% loss on crude oil shorts.
Frankly, it’s just wishful thinking, always feeling "it’s risen so much, it should pull back," only to be crushed by a one-sided market.
Shorting commodities in unclear macro conditions is really risky.
💬 It’s Friday, I wanted to have a good weekend.
This -33% crude oil short, should I cut losses today or hold on waiting for a pullback?
Advice welcome in the comments.👇
#原油CL #AAVE #ZEC #欧易 #交易心得 #加密货币
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $CORE $CORE Why do ordinary retail investors treat the token as a “mentor"?
Sunk cost hostage: Retail investors have already invested money at positions of 5U, 4U, 3U, 2U, 1U, and they cannot accept the fact that they have lost 99.9%.
At this point, as long as someone tells them "it will rise back," they will cling to these "mentors'" words like a lifeline, refusing to believe the truth.
Cognitive defense mechanism: Admitting that they were scammed means admitting that their faith, time, and money invested over the past few years have all become a joke, which is a devastating blow to a person's self-esteem.
Therefore, they would rather believe the "mentors" saying "the project is still progressing" than look down at the abyss beneath their feet. The market never lacks stories; what it lacks is memory.
$LAB's recent comeback is like a veteran suiting up again—its former momentum hasn't faded; instead, it precisely counterattacks when the bears are at their strongest. Those who got off early can now only watch the candlesticks in silence. But the same question remains: why can't $CORE learn? The 60-day moving average has been broken through 11 times, each time seeming ready to rise, yet each time falling just short of holding steady. Even Xiao Ku can't stand it anymore, and that's no lie.
Ultimately, not every coin has the resilience of $LAB to "get back up after being knocked down." Some projects' breakouts are a buildup of strength, while others are just struggles. Standing above the 60-day moving average 11 times but failing to hold it indicates that selling pressure hasn't been fully absorbed, or no one genuinely wants to push it up.
Looking at the broader market: BTC spot ETFs have seen nearly $3 billion in net inflows over seven consecutive days, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, increasing financing pressure. Capital is repeatedly jumping between crypto and traditional markets. With the MicroVision earnings report approaching, AI storage demand is becoming a focal point—hot money has destinations, but they aren't necessarily the saviors of every altcoin.
$BICO, even Xiao Ku can't stand it, and the market is running out of patience. What truly "crushes the bears" has never been sentiment but chips and consensus. $LAB understands this; $CORE does not yet.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC - Higher Lows
The shift in sentiment is becoming more apparent:
Altcoins are surging, greed is returning, and conviction is being rebuilt.
My current argument reflects a corrective move downward to form higher lows.
If anything, the greed sentiment in altcoins can create a crowded position/sentiment backdrop, which is exactly the kind of environment that allows the corrective move to be larger than people expect.
-> I can see the same situation in the comments, where conviction turns into certainty
The key points of my original post still hold:
Higher lows don’t have to be shallow.
The market can remain structurally bullish on a larger scale, while the correction magnitude may still far exceed the current consensus expectations.
So I still take the downside levels from the previous post seriously.
Not because I’m bearish on the overall structure—but because sentiment + positioning can easily overextend before higher lows truly form.
Thanks to @FurkanCCTV—his post triggered this follow-up from me."Dogecoin, wait for the next pullback"
$BTC has lacked direction these past two days, with wide fluctuations disrupting the rhythm; altcoins have been trying to rise one after another, with $DOGE among them. I hesitated at 0.091, afraid of chasing a high; later, seeing it stabilize, I followed in at 0.097 and made a small profit. Now it feels more like a tug-of-war up and down, so I chose to withdraw first, willing to re-enter if it falls back again.
I can't say I'm obsessed with $DOGE, but I have an inexplicable fondness for it.
The macro environment is still chaotic: after Bitcoin's pullback, there's no decent rebound; oil prices, Trump's Taco, and US Treasury yields haven't given any signals yet. The wind hasn't come; the market will likely continue to grind. Let's wait, wait for the wind, and also wait for Dogecoin to give another chance to get on board.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 BTC has a "institutional cost line" that is worth paying close attention to.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)
Holds about 846,000 BTC
Comprehensive average cost is about $75,416/BTC
US spot BTC ETFs
Hold a total of about 1.29 million BTC, but ETFs do not have an official unified "average purchase price": different ETF launch times, capital flows, and GBTC historical holdings vary greatly.
Among them, the largest BlackRock IBIT's historical capital flow cost has already entered the $75K+ range, very close to Strategy's cost center.
This indicates a phenomenon worth observing:
Around $75,000 is becoming an important cost area for large institutional BTC holdings.
If BTC returns to this range, it is not just a matter of technical support, but also means a large amount of Strategy and ETF-related funds are near their cost zones.
When looking at BTC now, besides price and daily ETF inflows, one should also keep an eye on one more line:
The institutional average cost line.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #IBIT #Strategy #MSTRMany people are still asking about $CORE
Whether $CORE can still rise
But I think a more worthwhile question is
When the next round of BTCFi truly explodes
Can CORE become one of the value capture beneficiaries
The current logic of Core is no longer just
Building a Bitcoin ecosystem chain
But moving in one direction
$BTC generates revenue
The ecosystem generates income
Income drives CORE buybacks
Plus BTC Staking
LST
BTCFi
Neobank
RWA and other applications continue to be implemented
If this flywheel really starts running
The valuation logic of CORE will also change
In the past, people might have viewed it as
A public chain valuation
In the future, the market might see it as
Bitcoin financial infrastructure + income + buybacks
Of course
There is still a long way to go
And in early September, Core just completed an emergency hard fork to fix validator reward anomalies
In the short term, the focus is still on whether network stability and user confidence can recover.
But if I were to preemptively put it on a long-term watchlist
CORE still deserves a spot
Not because of whether it rises now
But because I value $BICO more
When the next round of Bitcoin liquidity truly starts seeking yield
Whether CORE can catch that money
That might be the biggest story for CORE in the next phase.
#BTC spot ETF net inflows nearly $3 billion for 7 consecutive days Today, the high Beta assets show clear divergence again: WLD surged from around 0.40 to 0.48, LINK steadily holds near $14, while DOGE is once again capped at 0.10. One is entering an accelerated sentiment phase, one is following a steady trend, and one is still waiting for Meme funds to truly return—three completely different states.
#HighBetaContinuesToDiverge
#RiskOfChasingHighRisesAgain
$WLD is currently about 0.48, with the previous peak having touched around 0.512. The 0.455–0.46 zone is now the first support level; if it holds, we continue to watch 0.50–0.513; only after firmly holding 0.513 can we look toward 0.53–0.55. After several days of strong gains, this is no longer a low level.
$LINK is currently about 14.1, with 13.65–13.8 having formed the first support. Resistance is expected at 14.35; only after firmly holding above that can we look at 14.5–14.8. Its advantage now is not the largest gain but the steadily rising lows.
$DOGE is currently about 0.098, with 0.096–0.097 as the first defense, and 0.10 remains the most important psychological level; only after firmly holding above that can we look at 0.104–0.106.
This lineup: don’t chase WLD straight to 0.50, wait for LINK at 14.35, and wait for DOGE at 0.10. The hotter high Beta gets, the more important it is to watch for support after breakouts, not just the gain rankings.In the lively bull party, what I'm watching is that increasingly heavy contract bill. Is ZEC really stable this time? Looking at the derivatives structure of $ZEC, it seems very lively on the surface, but the underlying is a bit subtle. The unrealized profits of the bulls have surged to nearly 150 million U, with a profit-loss ratio skewed to 84% versus 18%, creating an imbalance like a table full of people who are all full but no one leaves. The problem has never been how much it has risen, but who will take these floating profits. On the perpetual side, if the funding rate continues to be positive and the open interest remains high, it can easily turn into a game of who runs first wins. The bull camp looks united, but everyone is actually calculating the same question in their hearts: should I take profits first? As long as a decent position reduction hits, the squeeze chain could ignite, forcing leveraged bulls to liquidate and instead fueling the bears. This is what I think is the most fragile point. But we can't look at only one side. The bullish path also exists: if $ZEC spot support is strong enough, funding rates are moderate, and positions are not extreme, then floating profits can be slowly digested, prices can use sideways movement to gain space, and altcoin sentiment can stabilize accordingly. What really needs attention is the change in open interest and the direction of funding rates, not slogans. My own rhythm is not to chase emotional highs but to wait for signals from the structure. Derivatives have never been oracles; they just amplify human nature. Floating profits that are not realized are just paper fireworks. This does not constitute any trading advice. $ZEC #ZEC #derivativesCrypto Divergence Amid the US Treasury Storm: BTC and ETH Under Pressure, $ZEC and $SOL Move Against the Trend
The US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.223%, hitting interest-free assets first. Bitcoin is currently at $83,924, showing clear short-term pressure; Ethereum dropped to $2,683, structurally fragile, and if it falls below $2,562, the cumulative long position liquidation intensity on major exchanges could reach $944 million, marking a critical zone for the bulls and bears battle.
However, institutions have not exited. Morgan Stanley increased its BTC holdings by 42.9 coins again, with a total position of 9,261 coins, valued at about $779 million, indicating their recognition of the current price level.
Meanwhile, ZEC and SOL are quietly rising against the trend. ZEC is at $1,534, slightly down 0.70%, but a whale scooped up 6,000 coins within 15 minutes, opening a $9.35 million long position at an average price of $1,558.90, betting on the "privacy narrative" and institutional layout. SOL is at $120.61, up 0.39%, with on-chain processing speed exceeding 1,800 TPS, ecosystem use cases continuously growing, currently testing the key $120-$124 range; a breakout would open upward potential.
Macro interest rates suppress the overall market, but funds are migrating from mainstream coins to assets with independent narratives. BTC and ETH are closely watching macro and liquidation risks, while ZEC and SOL quietly build strength through whales and fundamentals. Divergence may be the most authentic footnote of the current crypto market.
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Next 72 Hours
Hyperliquid perp volume $1,091M vs $22M spot. A 48.9x skew
ETF flows flipped +$134.5M Friday after a $504.6M drawdown since May 1
$BTC holding $84,702, 7d +4.29%, options bias +30
Call: $BTC grinds to the $88,000 options target within 72h
Dealers pinned near the $82,000 magnet get squeezed higher as Friday's ETF bid returns Monday, forcing perp shorts to cover into thin spot.$BTC Overall, the plan has played out very nicely. Breaking out from accumulation, consolidating below the previous highs, then expanding into the next target. Aside from 89.2K to 90.6K being a nice LTF area where we could see a rejection, the ideal extension for this leg sits around 92K to 94K. If this is a genuine impulse breakout and we are transitioning into a higher range, I would expect momentum to continue rather than see a new range form here. The market should capitalise on the momentZECUSDT Trend Forecast (Current Price 1586.86)
Overall Conclusion: Leading privacy sector token, driven by dual narratives of ETF + NU7 upgrade, has broken through previous high resistance zone. Short-term short squeeze rally continues, but the risk of a sharp tail rise increases as price goes higher; mid-term positive catalyst realization window is approaching, beware of a pullback after a surge.
Short-term (1~5 trading days)
- Resistance range: 1600~1620 (round number resistance), strong resistance 1650~1680
After breaking previous highs and retesting, as long as BTC holds above 84000 and privacy sector sentiment remains, there is still momentum for further upside; however, contract funding rates continue to rise, leverage longs accumulate, and a single-day 8%~12% correction could occur anytime.
- Support range: 1560~1570 (previous resistance turned support), 1490~1520 (strong support zone)
A break below 1560 with volume decline indicates short-term short squeeze momentum exhaustion and entry into profit-taking phase.
- Trading strategy: Holders should take partial profits in the 1650~1680 range, keeping a small position to speculate on 1700+; lightly buy the rebound if price stabilizes near 1560, never chase highs.
Mid-term (2~4 weeks, until November NU7 upgrade launch)
Key event: NU7 mainnet upgrade (expected November 5), price has largely priced in expectations in advance, typical "buy the expectation" scenario.
1. Optimistic scenario: smooth upgrade + BTC continues bull run, oscillating in a large 1500~1750 range, testing 1750 with repeated profit-taking digestion;
2. Cautious scenario: upgrade benefit realization + market weakness, large-scale profit-taking escape, deep pullback to 1300~1400 range, completing correction of this rally.
Long-term (3~6 months)
Bullish logic
1. Grayscale ZEC spot ETF ongoing, institutional funds provide long-term support, new ETF approvals still have room for imagination;
2. Post-NU7 launch, privacy assets and shielded smart contracts go live, expanding privacy sector application boundaries;
3. Fixed total supply of 21 million, inflation continues to decline post-halving, scarcity logic holds long-term.
Major risks
4. Regulatory risk: privacy coins remain under global regulatory pressure, targeted policies could trigger crashes;
5. Market risk: highly elastic altcoin, BTC mid-term corrections cause larger drops than the market;
6. Narrative exhaustion: ETF and NU7 core positives mostly priced in, lacking major catalysts afterward.
Long-term price range forecast
- Bull market continuation + regulatory friendliness: upper limit $1800~2000;
- Market correction + benefit realization: pullback to $1100~1350 range.
Swing trading reference
- Long liquidation zones (triggered by drop): 1560~1580 (moderate long liquidations); 1490~1520 (large-scale long liquidations); below 1420 excessive long liquidations
- Short liquidation zones (triggered by rise): 1650~1680 (moderate short stop-loss); above 1720 large-scale short liquidations
- Trading principles: avoid heavy positions and holding through losses, focus on swing trading, take profits in batches on rallies, buy in batches on dips; strictly control leverage positions.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 Here's some data for those who have been shorting these past two days, explaining why you're feeling frustrated. In the past 24 hours of liquidations, the majority of liquidations were shorts—$BTC short liquidations were more than twice that of longs, and $SOL is even more extreme, with short liquidations nearly two and a half times that of longs. A classic short squeeze.
In plain language: $BTC has been hovering around 84,000 without moving, looking like it might drop, but every time it dips, buyers step in to catch it, wiping out the stop losses of those chasing shorts one after another. In this low-volume sideways market, the price action loves to clear out leverage on both the long and short sides alternately.
This is exactly why I stay flat on perpetual shorts—I have a directional view, but naked shorting in this kind of choppy, stagnant market is like playing with real money against the house. Just because you understand it doesn't mean you have to jump in now. Are you still chasing shorts here? The 4 AM candlestick, and a biological clock reshaped by Bitcoin
At 4 AM, the whole city is asleep, only the candlestick on my screen remains awake. Bitcoin has forcibly twisted my schedule into New York time, turning day and night upside down as the norm.
BTC is currently hovering around 84,000, having touched 87,000 a couple of days ago, but it was slapped down before it could hold. Holiday trading is thin, funds ebb like the tide, and prices are pushed back and forth by small waves. If you hesitate, it crashes down; if you cut losses, it turns back and smiles at you. In this liquidity-dried pond, every fish thinks it's hunting, but in fact, they're all being toyed with by the currents.
Interestingly, the US spot ETF side is bustling, attracting over 2 billion USD in a week, with institutions rushing in like clockwork. The Fed just finished its meeting, rate anxiety is cooling down, and the September curse didn't materialize this year. Is the ETF a tentative entry or the new normal? No one dares to conclude.
The real starting gun is still held by PCE data and rate expectations. As for Trump rejecting the seven-day plan and new uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz—these distant thunderclaps will sooner or later reach this thin market.
When I turn off the screen, dawn is breaking outside. A day in the crypto world often starts at someone else's 4 AM.
#BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元 #BTC现货ETF连续7日净流入近30亿美元
The ETF has seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling nearly $3 billion. Of course, there are also bearish factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have reduced net inflows, which is a significant negative.
Currently, the single-day net inflow has dropped from 999 million to 134 million, shrinking for four consecutive days. If this trend continues, buying momentum will weaken, and the price will lose its most critical support.
From a macro perspective, long-term interest rates remain high, rate hike expectations have not receded, and the opportunity cost of zero-yield assets is too high. Funds are willing to enter BTC because the long-term logic is strong, but short-term prices still depend on Federal Reserve rates.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 $SOL is once again the strongest card on the field — four consecutive cycles lined up in a full bullish pattern, still leading with a slight gain in the last 24 hours, leaving $BTC and $ETH behind. The catch-up crowd in the comments is already itching to jump in.
Here’s a cold splash of water: the daily RSI has already touched the overbought zone near 70, while the overall market volume ratio is still lying on the ground at just a few tenths — extremely low volume. Strong + overbought + low volume, these three combined are the most deceptive mix. It’s not that it can’t rise further, but chasing it at this position has a poor risk-reward ratio: to gain those three points, you risk a five-point pullback.
Strong coins can be watched and held, but don’t chase their overbought zone during the low-volume tail end of Sunday trading. The biggest fear when chasing strength is catching the last baton. Would you chase $SOL here? Seeing the Iranian Speaker mock the US on Twitter: "Congratulations on reaching a 5.1% yield on the 10-year Treasury, this is the floor for the next two years, enjoy the nostalgia of the 70s." Harsh words, but he inadvertently hit on something everyone playing risk assets should watch closely — interest rates.
What does a 5% 10-year US Treasury yield mean? It is the anchor for global asset pricing. When the anchor rises, various valuations have to be pushed down, and assets like $BTC that generate no cash flow are the first to be hit. This is also the reason I've remained cautious about risk assets lately — not because of chart patterns, but because of the looming cloud of interest rates overhead.
That said, oil prices have recently cooled off, and dovish officials have started to ease up, letting some light peek through the clouds. So my approach is to keep long positions in spot holdings and avoid naked exposure in contracts. Do you trust the pressure from interest rates more, or do you believe in this cooling trend?BTC liquidity update. Yesterday price was sitting around $84K between two pretty clear liquidity pools. The upper side got attacked first. $BTC ran to $85.15K, right into the area we were watching, before pulling back. But that upper liquidity isn't completely gone. The 24h, 48h and 3-day maps still show a heavy concentration around $85.3K-$85.9K. Zoom out and there's another larger area around $87K-$87.5K. Liquidity around $82.7K-$83.3K is still sitting below too. Yesterday the map looked almosDon't fool me with renderings—I only look at the foundation. $ATH This building has only risen 0.44% in 24 hours, but the short-term RSI has already dropped to 31.1, and the long-term RSI is just hanging at the neutral line of 48.2. This is not a topping celebration; this is a foundation pit inspection.
First, look at the structural grid. In the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price is pressed at -6%, while the lower band is only at -0.1% and the upper band at +1.7%—the working surface left for it is as thin as a layer of leveling mortar. Any slight vibration, and the load-bearing wall will be grounded. The mid-term is a bit better, positioned at 25% of the span, with a clearance of +2.4% from the lower band and the upper band waiting at +7.3% to cap the beam. Putting these two numbers together, my judgment is straightforward: the main structure has no cracks, but temporary supports must be reinforced.
Next, look at the construction schedule. The current price has only 3.5% room downward, which is my entry point—equivalent to digging one more layer below the foundation cushion, waiting for the load-bearing layer to be exposed before pouring, rather than erecting columns directly on backfill soil. Upward, the first beam position is at +5.4%, the second at +7.3%, both within the reasonable span of the mid-term upper band, able to be closed without adding braces. What really needs to be written into the construction handover is this: the -13.2% stop-loss line has already crossed the mid-term lower band. Once broken through, it’s not a repair, it’s a total collapse, and the plan must be redone.
I have done too many projects that died because "the drawings looked good, but the foundation was unstable." This one’s drawings aren’t stunning, but the load-bearing logic holds.
📈 Long:
Entry: 3.5% below current price (-3.5%)
Take Profit 1: 5.4% above entry (+5.4%)
Take Profit 2: 7.3% above entry (+7.3%)
Stop Loss: 13.2% below entry (-13.2%)
The foundation pit inspection is done, the rebar should be tied—but this building only allows one perfect pour, no tolerance for a three-millimeter error.Capital inflow, privacy coins in the spotlight
Crypto market sentiment warms up. Bitcoin is priced at $84,530, firmly holding above the 84,000 mark and achieving the third strongest historical performance in Q3. Spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive days, totaling approximately $2.98 billion, with cumulative inflows for 2026 turning positive again. Technically, BTC has reclaimed the 365-day moving average and crossed above the 50-week moving average; if the weekly close stays above $83,000, Q4 is expected to remain bullish.
Ethereum is priced at $2,706.49, showing initial signs of technical recovery from a year-long downtrend, but faces heavy resistance near $2,800. If it falls below $2,561, about $501 million in long positions face liquidation; if it breaks out with volume above $2,807, the target could be $3,063, whereas a drop below $2,627 may trigger another pullback.
ZEC is the center of attention, rising 7.28% in a single day to $1,664, hitting a new stage high, with a one-year increase of about 19 times and a market cap surpassing $20 billion. Since the launch of the Grayscale Zcash spot ETF, it has attracted over $233 million, with the ETF buying for 16 consecutive days totaling over $500 million; combined with whale withdrawals locking tokens and a sharp reduction in circulating supply, these three forces jointly push the price higher. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC Overall, the plan has played out very nicely. Breaking out from accumulation, consolidating below the previous highs, then expanding into the next target. Aside from 89.2K to 90.6K being a nice LTF area where we could see a rejection, the ideal extension for this leg sits around 92K to 94K. If this is a genuine impulse breakout and we are transitioning into a higher range, I would expect momentum to continue rather than see a new range form here. The market should capitalise on the moment$BTC Price is currently trading between two larger liquidity clusters. The one to the upside spreads from the recent highs around $87k all the way up toward $90k. Meanwhile, the much larger cluster below sits around the $80k–$81k region, right where BTC would retest the recent breakout from the previous range. With a new monthly open approaching, I could imagine a manipulation move at the start of the month into one of these clusters, followed by a larger reversal to target the other side later Closing Sunday night, let me share my stance for next week: no contract positions, only net long spot holdings, with zero leverage.
Some ask, next week is a data bomb week, shouldn't you have positioned contracts earlier? It's the opposite. Precisely because of the many bombs, I avoid overnight leverage—GDP, core PCE, and nonfarm payrolls all packed in one week, any single data point can swing the market back and forth twice. Entering with high-leverage contracts is like leaving the table to luck.
My spot longs are based on judgment; if it drops, no liquidation, I can sleep well; contract leverage is a heartbeat, once data hits, you have to react passively. The core of low-frequency big bets is never about betting big, but having bullets left in the most chaotic times. $BTC What do you think, will the bomb week start with a rise or a fall? The Fear and Greed Index has reached the greed zone at 70. Is the 8.36% surge in $PYTH driven by sentiment or the start of a trend? The answer leans toward the latter, but the process will have fluctuations.
At the market level, BTC maintains strength, driving altcoin rotation. Under greedy sentiment, capital is willing to pay a premium for high-volatility assets. $PYTH current price is 0.08541, with MA5 crossing above MA20 and the price stabilizing above both moving averages, indicating a bullish mid-term structure. However, two signals require caution: the MACD histogram is still at -0.0002999, momentum has not fully turned positive; the funding rate is +0.0050%, indicating increased long crowding and a short-term need for a pullback to shake out positions. RSI at 59.8 is not overbought, Bollinger upper band at 0.0880474 is the nearest resistance, and the lower band at 0.0812756 forms the support anchor for this cycle.
In terms of operation, buying near the MA5 pullback offers better cost-effectiveness. Entry reference is the 0.0835–0.0850 range, close to MA5=0.085308 and the Bollinger middle band, with RSI having room to rise after a pullback. Take profit 1 is at 0.0880, corresponding to the Bollinger upper band resistance; take profit 2 is at 0.0910, the measured extension after a breakout. Stop loss is set at 0.0808; falling below the Bollinger lower band at 0.0812756 indicates the bullish structure is broken.I opened a short position on $ETH at 2532 and have been stuck for a week. I thought this was my most stable trade because at that time the US raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and Japan also raised rates by 25 basis points. I assumed the rebound was over and that only endless crashes would follow. But I placed the short at 2532, and who would have thought it wasn’t the end at all? It rose 8.84% in 30 days, climbing all the way to 2,690. What bothers me now isn’t the 158 points lost, but that my logic was wrong. Rate hikes don’t actually cause a drop; they’re just a smokescreen to trap shorts. I’m waiting for a pullback, but it’s moving like an old lady climbing a hill, slowly and shakily. I’m also waiting for a breakdown, but it seems to be consolidating at the bottom. 2,650 is its recent support level, and I’m watching it closely. If it breaks, I can cut my losses by more than half. But it doesn’t seem to want to go down at all. Why is that? Is a market without pullbacks just a no-brainer to go long, where you can just stuff your money in a snake-skin bag?