#LongYields5%NewNormal
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Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
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JPMorgan Asset Management: US Treasuries have fallen to the "maximum pain point," it's time to bottom-fish long-term government bonds
Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer of JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that his team has begun purchasing long-term government bonds from the U.S., Japan, and Australia, believing that current prices are "simply too cheap" and that the bond market has reached a "critical point of extreme pain."
On Wednesday, Michele told Bloomberg Television that multiple positive factors are converging: starting with the European Central Bank's rate hike last week, through the Federal Reserve, and up to th
#FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 The first Fed hike since 2023 matters. But the bigger signal may be what comes next 👀
The Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, ending five straight holds. More importantly, its September projections show the median policy rate at 4.1% for end-2026, with most officials clustered above today's midpoint. Inflation is still projected at 3.7% this year.
What caught my attention is how quickly the market narrative has flipped. Not long ago, investors were debating when easing might return. Now the question is how long this renewed tightening phase lasts.
That matters when the 10-year yield is already above 5%. Higher rates don't just pressure stocks. They raise the hurdle rate for AI spending, corporate borrowing, housing and leveraged crypto positions.
The Fed and White House may debate where rates should go. Markets have to price where they actually go.
If inflation stays sticky, the bigger risk may not be this 25bps hike. It may be investors realizing that expensive money is sticking around.
-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
Market consensus
The bearish side believes that the attractiveness of US Treasuries has increased, causing funds to withdraw from risky assets like crypto; others think that the main reason is the excessive US fiscal issuance pushing up rates, a short-term pulse shock that may not sustain high levels.
Underlying logic analysis
US Treasuries are the global asset pricing anchor. With yields breaking 5%, the opportunity cost of holding BTC rises. Funds will prioritize the certainty of US Treasuries, risk appetite declines, and the crypto market is likely to face pressure. The focus will be on the FOMC meeting statements going forward.
Personal view (personal opinion only, not investment advice) #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
TODAY: The Fed is widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 basis points today, a move that would mark its first increase since 2023.
$BTC
In the past decade, Bitcoin told its story through the "halving cycle."\n\nIn the next decade, Bitcoin will tell its story through the "fiat credit collapse."\n\nAnd today,\n\nThe US 10-year Treasury yield has broken 5%, the last time was in 2007.\n\nThe Japanese 10-year government bond yield has broken 3%, the last time was in 1996.\n\nThe US and Japanese bond markets are handing the script directly to $BTC.\n\nThe question is: can you endure the darkest moment before dawn?
🚨 THE MARKET IS HUNTING LEVERAGE AGAIN
Yesterday’s sell-off wiped out hundreds of millions in crypto longs.
BTC fell toward the $75K area, while ETH dropped toward $2,400.
And now comes the bigger test:
With the U.S. 10Y yield recently moving above 5%, risk assets are facing a much tougher macro environment.
❌ No FOMO
❌ No revenge trades
❌ No oversized leverage
✅ Wait for BTC confirmation
✅ Keep dry powder
✅ Let the market show its hand first
#BTC #ETH #Crypto #Trading #OKX
#DailyOrbit