Last time during SanDisk's earnings report, we even did an all-night live stream to watch it. At that time, there was a question: why did SanDisk's stock fall despite a good earnings report? SanDisk's earnings on August 5th were actually very strong, but the stock still fell nearly 8% after hours. The main reason was that some data agencies had higher expectations for profit guidance. The market's real concern was whether NAND prices and profit margins have already peaked. However, at yesterday's investor conference, management directly addressed this core concern. The adjusted gross margin is expected to remain around 80%, and the adjusted operating margin is expected to be about 75%. The adjusted free cash flow rate is about 50%, with plans to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders. These profit margin and cash flow targets clearly exceed the valuation framework of traditional cyclical storage companies. The market is beginning to reprice SanDisk from a "cyclical stock" to a "high-profit AI infrastructure platform." Additionally, SanDisk has signed new long-term commercial agreements with eight customers, covering about 50% of production for FY2027 and about two-thirds of production for FY2028. The macro environment is a booster, not the main reason, as mentioned yesterday when discussing gold. Whether it's this month's non-farm payrolls or CPI, including last night's PPI, all are positive data. Although the PPI decline is mostly due to lower energy inflation (crude $oil), service sector inflation remains but has partially eased market concerns about further Fed rate hikes. Currently, the short interest ratio exceeds 70%, shorts are clearly crowded, waiting for a pullback to go long! #闪迪投资者日后，长期目标成焦点 $SNDK

Actually, this month's data has little impact on the crypto market; the biggest impact is on gold. Whether it's the non-farm payroll data missing expectations or the CPI data meeting expectations, it all points to a cooling down that reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. With the decline in rate hike expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields fall, and gold tends to benefit in the short term. As always, the capital market is always about speculating on expectations. Before the CPI release, the market had already bet on inflation cooling down. After the data is realized, a typical pattern emerges: buying on expectations → no significant expectation gap → data release spike → profit-taking. The current pullback does not necessarily mean a trend reversal; it looks more like waiting for tonight's PPI to provide a second confirmation. Now, why hasn't the crypto market reacted much despite the lowered rate hike expectations? Whether it's BTC or ETH, the main reason is the risk asset logic. What is needed is not just a halt in rate hikes but also clearer liquidity expansion and risk appetite. Therefore, in the current macro environment, gold simultaneously serves as an interest rate trade and a safe-haven trade. Currently, gold's strong 4-hour support is around 4300-4320; pay attention to tonight's PPI data. If it is below expectations, gold will likely retake 4400 to challenge previous highs. If there is a clear upside surprise, the US dollar and US Treasury yields may rebound, possibly testing the 4320 support level. If it basically meets expectations, the volatility will be moderate. After all, it's not a major data release; it still depends on whether there is a significant expectation gap. #7月CPI平稳落地，9月加息预期降温 $XAU

I've already cried a lot these past few days, so why make me cry again? What else can I say? Congratulations on your successful landing.

The non-farm payroll data that came out was really scary. I expected the data might be lower than anticipated, but I didn't expect negative growth. Looking at the specific data, the main reason for the negative growth is still government layoffs. Before the data was released, the probability of a rate hike in September was 55%, but it dropped to 40% after the data was published. Maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has once again become the market benchmark, and the rate hike expectations have been significantly weakened. The US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and the USD/JPY exchange rate have all been falling, gold is taking off, and the US stock market is also up nearly 1% in pre-market trading. Although this is clearly positive, I still feel something is a bit off....#联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？

Since the entire market broke through 1880 on Wednesday, it has reached a high near 1930 It has been oscillating in the 1895-1920 range for two days It seems that the non-farm payrolls report tonight needs to deliver something strong to stimulate this market There are several important points to watch in tonight's non-farm data Market funds and liquidity are very poor Therefore, ordinary levels of below-expectation data may not bring a big rally Instead, stronger-than-expected data could cause greater damage to the crypto market The market has already traded in advance, with gold rising more than 6% this week The ADP data from the past two days has already shown cooling employment and a reduced probability of rate hikes This has caused the probability of a September rate hike to drop from 67% to 55% Only if tonight's data continues to be unexpectedly weak can the expectation of a September rate hike continue to decline According to the US market control logic, if the market is too enthusiastic, they start a war and block the strait, causing oil prices to rise and signaling rate hikes If the US stock market falls too much, they negotiate and open the strait, fabricate some fake data, and release rate cut expectations My position determines my stance. Data can be faked, but I firmly remain bullish on #黄金4200美元拉锯，BTC为何没跟涨？

I've held long positions for several days now. Is there still a chance for a breakthrough? Brothers, please recharge my faith. I'm about to break down. The market outside is full of bears. Can we really make it to the other side?#以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议

Why did SPCX's earnings report, which met expectations after the market closed at midnight, still cause a sharp drop and then start to decline? It's obvious that recently, US stocks related to AI generally show large capital expenditures in their earnings reports. We've been discussing in the live room that when looking at US stocks, you need to consider earnings reports, ETF inflows, cash flow, capital expenditures, and finally the candlestick charts. SPCX's revenue and losses are indeed very impressive, but what the market really worries about is that the company is spending too much on AI computing power, data centers, Starship, and satellite deployment, but hasn't provided sufficiently clear future cash flow and profit guidance. The market feels that you won't be able to make that much money so quickly in the short term. On August 6th, a new round of unlocking will begin. Could there be negative sell-offs? If the unlocking coincides with concentrated sales by major shareholders, a weakening Nasdaq, or negative Starship news, the sudden expansion of the circulating supply could lead to continuous declines. The trading volume on that day will be huge. So, as soon as I woke up this morning, I immediately shorted one rocket at market price, holding it until tomorrow's unlocking to see. #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量

The market's intense volatility never picks favorites. It won't go easy on you just because you've studied hard or made careful judgments. The hardest thing right now isn't actually money, but emotions—the feeling of not even daring to face reality. I understand it all. I've also been liquidated and suffered big losses. But especially at times like this, don't rush to prove yourself with the next trade. Don't force yourself to immediately pull yourself together either. Stop for a moment—really stop. Detach yourself from the market's emotions. Money lost can be earned again. But if a person is crushed by emotions, that's truly irreversible. You are still the same person who once analyzed carefully and made thoughtful decisions. It's just that this time the market is more extreme and ruthless than you. The market won't end just because these few days are over; it will continue to exist. Whether it's liquidation or heavy losses, get a good night's sleep and have a meal. Keeping yourself steady is more important than anything. As long as you're still here, there's a chance to start over. Many people take the crypto circle's tricks—drawing a few lines, finding some indicators—and dare to take you to play the US stock market. To be honest, they might not even know what the stock or token is really about. Some people don't even know what the hell SanDisk is and think it's some kind of altcoin. And you dare to play along, dare to follow these people. Better block and stay away early, brothers.

Currently, Bitcoin holdings are very high, continuously oscillating at high levels And there is a lot of money chasing in. In the short term, the bulls are a bit crowded There are still many bears merging in, and honestly, it's easy for a major pullback to occur Clear out the short-term bulls, then continue upward Looking at CVD, the incremental spot positions are starting to catch up Here, real money is driving the market to break through However, if the holding sentiment here does not continue, a large drawdown is likely to occur It's best to wait for a major pullback before going long; this will actually help the market rally better I'm more optimistic about the 65,400-65,500 range. If it goes deep, it might only be around 65,000. #Crypto market warms up, Bitcoin rises