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$BTC did not fall following BitMart's shutdown news, but trending posts on the square have already labeled the event as a "chain of exchange closures." The official announcement confirmed a phased withdrawal, and withdrawals are still open.
The timeline is also clear: new registrations, deposits, and new orders will stop on July 26, trading will stop on August 26, and the official shutdown will begin on January 31, 2027.
The platform's own risks are indeed quickly priced in, with the BitMart page showing BMX prices falling by about 55%. However, BTC has still risen 1.25% in the past 24 hours, while contract open interest has dropped by about 2.8%. This is more like an orderly exit by a single platform combined with deleveraging, and there hasn't yet been a market-wide run.
Next, watch whether BitMart withdrawals remain smooth and whether BTC can remain stable as holdings decline. If the former shows abnormalities and the latter weakens simultaneously, it indicates that risks are beginning to spill over into the market.
#BTC #BitMart#FOMCRateWatch FOMC decision drops Thursday 2am Beijing time, and the macro setup heading in couldn't be more mixed 🎯
Oil sharply lower on US-Iran ceasefire hopes — takes the energy inflation pressure off. Jobless claims 187K, below expectations — labor market still holding up. One dove, one hawk, both landing this week 🤔
Same week: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings Wednesday and Thursday with capex guidance as the main event. And FTX's fifth round of $900M creditor repayments kicks off July 31 — $900M hitting the market while everything else is in motion 👀
BTC back above $65K to open the week. Fear & Greed recovered to 30 — highest this month. Sentiment shifted fast 📈
FOMC + three mega-cap earnings + FTX repayments all in the same window. This is the kind of week where you either ride the wave or get caught on the wrong side of it 🫠
Oil down, jobs resilient, BTC warming up — do you think Warsh leans dovish or hawkish Thursday? And are you reducing risk into this stacked week or staying in? 👇近期RWA现实资产代币化热度不断扩散，但资金不再只盯着耳熟能详的标的，开始挖掘面向传统金融、实体企业的底层公链。沉寂许久的$HBAR 走出大幅反弹行情。和主打散户生态的公链不同，HBAR的核心受众是机构，赛道逻辑具备独特性，今天好好拆解。 先说底层背景： 很多公链设计优先考虑散户交易、DeFi、Meme玩法，而Hedera（HBAR）路线完全不一样，定位面向传统大企业、金融机构的商用公链。 网络转账速度快、手续费极低，治理由多家跨国企业联盟共同参与，合规框架相比多数公链更加完善。项目长期深耕机构市场，重心承接债券、不动产、供应链金融这类实体资产上链需求，是RWA赛道重要基础设施之一。 过去很长一段时间市场目光集中在AI、MEME热点，偏向To B端的HBAR缺少短线炒作话题，长期横盘被资金遗忘。 当下盘面现状： 随着RWA叙事不断升温，板块赚钱效应扩散。资金开始高低切换，寻找长期横盘、估值还未充分修复的二线公链。 HBAR结束漫长区间震荡，迎来放量拉升。市场开始重视一条关键逻辑：传统金融想要入局链上资产，大概率优先选择合规属性更强、企业联盟背书的底层网络。 本轮上涨核心逻辑拆解： 越来Don't just focus on AI in the US stock market tonight.
What could truly change the strength of sectors is the gap in crude oil.
WTI crude oil has quickly fallen from around $90 to $84.8, as the market is giving back the risk premium caused by geopolitical conflicts.
This has three layers of impact on the US stock market tonight.
1. The energy sector faces profit-taking pressure
Short-term resistance for crude oil is between $85.5 and $86.
As long as the price does not close back above $86, the bullish logic for energy stocks will weaken, and $XOM and $CVX are likely to see profit-taking at high levels.
If crude oil falls below $84, the next support is around $83.
2. The airline and transportation sectors see cost relief
The most direct beneficiaries of falling oil prices are airlines.
But even if $UAL strengthens in pre-market, I wouldn’t chase it right at the open. The key is to observe whether it can stay stronger than the broader market in the first 30 minutes after the open, while oil prices remain below $85.5.
Only if oil prices fail to rebound above $86 will the relative advantage of the airline sector be easier to sustain.
3. Tech stocks still depend on three events this week
This week includes the Federal Reserve meeting, inflation data, and major tech company earnings.
The drop in oil prices helps ease inflation pressure but does not directly translate to a broad tech stock rally. The real drivers remain interest rate expectations and earnings guidance.
Key observations for tonight:
Crude oil resistance: $85.5–$86
First support: $84
Second support: $83
Logic invalidation: regaining and holding above $86
If crude oil stays below $85.5, energy is weak, while airlines and consumer sectors relatively benefit.
If crude oil regains and holds above $86, the sector rotation logic for tonight needs to be reassessed. #CXMTMemoryIPO CXMT (ChangXin Memory) just debuted on China's STAR Market at a 3.31 trillion yuan valuation — now the largest stock on China's A-shares 🔥
The global memory story just got a third player. A week ago: Anthropic signed chip supply deals with Samsung and SK Hynix, Nvidia invested in Korea's Naver. AI orders were concentrating around the Korean duo. Now CXMT's listing brings Chinese capacity officially into the pricing system 👀
The timing is deliberate. KOSPI even rose 1.7%+ early morning then reversed — the market felt the new competition entering the room 📉
DRAM contract prices and expansion pace are now the two numbers to watch. More supply sources = potential pricing pressure on Samsung and SK Hynix's premium 🤔
Anthropic's orders went to Korea. A-share capital went to CXMT. Is there enough AI memory demand for three players to win — or does one get squeezed out as the market matures? 🫠
Does CXMT's entry actually reshape global DRAM pricing, or is this another domestic champion story that stays contained within China's market? And are you positioned in this trade anywhere — Korean ADRs, tokenized US chips, or A-shares? 👇Today, the entire tech circle and capital market focus is on Changxin Storage, which just debuted on the STAR Market.
The opening was explosive, soaring 471.59% compared to the 8.66 yuan issue price, with an opening price fixed at 49.5 yuan. The intraday highest increase once exceeded 530%, with extremely fierce battles between bulls and bears, a price difference of over 17 yuan, and a trillion-yuan market cap instantly formed. Single winning users earned over twenty thousand yuan per share.
This extreme profit effect has fully ignited the entire storage sector's heat.
But I noticed a very common misunderstanding.
The vast majority of retail investors only focus on the soaring market sentiment,
follow the hype shouting bull market and tenfold gains, but they can't distinguish the underlying logic of the storage track at all.
The companies casually mentioned daily like Changxin, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk
seem to all be storage companies, but in fact, their tracks are completely separate, their profit logics vastly different, and the benefiting market trends totally distinct.
Mindlessly mixing them together to follow speculation will most likely result in buying at the top.
Setting aside market heat, let's talk about the core industry fundamentals.
The storage industry has never been a single category; it is fundamentally divided into two major parts:
DRAM operating memory, which clears data when powered off, supporting phones, computers, and AI servers;
NAND flash storage, which retains data long-term, suitable for hard drives, USB drives, and memory cards.
The gap among all storage companies starts from these two categories, which is also the root cause of their different stock price trends and market logics.
Let's first talk about the market-exploding protagonist, Changxin Storage.
Many are misled by the IPO surge, mistakenly thinking it covers all storage dividends.
In reality, its business is extremely focused, deeply cultivating the DRAM memory track, and completely avoiding NAND flash.
As the only domestic IDM leader that has independently developed and produced DRAM chips, its core value is not about following AI hype,
but a solid domestic substitution logic.
In recent years, overseas giants have continuously cut general DRAM production, crazily shifting capacity to high-profit AI high-end HBM memory.
A large gap has appeared in global general memory capacity.
Changxin just fills this gap, supplying DDR5 and LPDDR5X in batches, steadily securing stable orders from consumer electronics and basic servers.
Here, I must warn everyone about the biggest pitfall.
Changxin currently does not have mass production capability for HBM; related products are still in the R&D sample delivery stage.
It cannot yet benefit from the most profitable and core HBM dividends in this AI storage boom.
Its rise logic is domestic substitution growth plus industry cycle resonance,
distinct from overseas storage giants violently boosted by AI, representing two completely different valuation systems.
Next, let's look at the most familiar SK Hynix.
It is the absolute core beneficiary of this AI storage market and the true track leader.
Unlike Changxin's single focus, Hynix runs dual lines, covering both DRAM and NAND.
Its real trump card is the monopolistic HBM high-bandwidth memory capacity.
Most of the HBM used in Nvidia's high-end AI graphics cards and AI servers comes from Hynix.
The extremely high premium and supply-demand imbalance have supported its super market performance over the past two years.
For Hynix, ordinary memory and flash business are just the basics.
The real driver of stock price and profit ceiling has always been HBM capacity and pricing.
This is the fundamental difference between it and Changxin: one benefits from domestic substitution, the other from AI high-end computing power dividends.
Next is Micron Technology.
As the only US original storage manufacturer, it is the most versatile yet unstable player in the industry.
It also runs dual lines DRAM+NAND, covering general storage, HBM, automotive-grade, and industrial-grade flash.
Its product line covers all niche scenarios, with a much more balanced business layout than the other two.
But its biggest risk is not the industry cycle but geopolitical policies.
Import-export controls and supply chain restrictions can affect its shipments and performance anytime, causing extreme stock price volatility.
Its HBM progress is between Hynix and Changxin.
It lacks the Korean company's monopolistic capacity and the domestic company's policy protection.
Its trend follows the global storage cycle and international situation more, with maximum uncertainty.
Finally, the most confused SanDisk.
A serious reminder: SanDisk must never be compared to Changxin or Hynix.
This is the most common rookie mistake.
SanDisk never does DRAM memory business; it only does NAND flash.
Our daily-used USB drives, TF cards, and consumer SSDs are its core business.
It was acquired by Western Digital early on, later spun off independently, focusing deeply on the consumer storage track.
It is completely disconnected from AI memory, server DRAM, and HBM markets.
It does not benefit from AI dividends or domestic substitution dividends.
Its trend only follows the consumer flash supply-demand cycle.
Mixing it with the first three original storage manufacturers is a fundamental misunderstanding of the track.
After discussing the core differences of these four companies, let's look back at Changxin's explosive market performance today.
Objectively, a large part of today's surge is driven by speculative sentiment.
Extremely low float, scarce domestic DRAM leader status, and extreme bullish market sentiment
combined to create a market detached from the usual industry cycle.
Currently, the market shows very clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Retail investors are crazily chasing high, gambling on tenfold gains, while institutions remain rational and restrained on valuation.
High turnover at the top, subsequent volatility and differentiation are inevitable trends.
Don't blindly go all in on the storage track just because the sector is broadly rising and new stocks are surging.
Different tracks, logics, and dividends mean individual stock trends will continue to diverge.
Short-term speculative sentiment will eventually fade.
Those who can stand firm at high levels will always be those with pure logic, realized capacity, and real performance support.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Let me share the story behind the creation of this article:
The topic was actually quite accidental. That day, I saw the Korean KOSPI open high and then turn down, and I thought the reaction behind this was interesting—what were Korean institutions trading? After figuring it out, I realized this was a variable in the global storage landscape, so I wanted to write about it.
The hardest part of writing was "not turning it into a financial press release." How much it rose on the first day, market cap, and data are easy to pile up, but no one reads just data. I kept asking myself: What does this mean for Samsung and SK Hynix? What does it mean for Nvidia, the buyer of storage? Pulling out this logical chain made me feel the article was somewhat interesting.
What I most want to express is: these are actually signals of the global competitive landscape. Storage pricing power is shifting from a duopoly to a three-party game. This change won't happen in a single quarter, but the starting point is today.
After publishing, someone asked me, "So should I buy Samsung or short it now?" This question made me realize many people, after reading, are still looking for a simple trading instruction. I think this is exactly what I want to avoid. Analysis is not the answer; it helps you think through the problem clearly.
DYOR!This could be a pivotal week for $BTC . History suggests FOMC weeks often bring heightened volatility. Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable Bitcoin pullback, with an average decline of around 10% in the week that followed. Interestingly, before last month's meeting, BTC was trading near $66K—almost the same level we're seeing now. It later dropped nearly 12% to $58K, marking fresh cycle lows. The only exception came in May, when Bitcoin defied expecta📊Tonychoo | Crypto Institution Daily (2026.07.27)
📰 Today's highlights
1️⃣ ETF spot withdrawals diverge sharply from derivatives volume expansion:
On July 24 Eastern Time, BTC/ETH spot ETFs saw over $310 million in outflows in a single day, but the 24-hour trading volume of derivatives across the network surged to $107.753 billion (an increase of 57.84%), with liquidations surging by 164%. The market is entirely driven by futures leverage, and spot funds remain sluggish in buying positions.
2️⃣ East Coast and South Korea spot prices are relatively cold:
Coinbase's premium index was -0.09, and South Korea's premium dropped to -0.3, reflecting weak spot buying by institutions and retail investors in Europe and the US.
3️⃣ Key fixes for on-chain structures:
Small whales (100~1k BTC) have returned to unprofitable positions, MVRV is forming a golden cross pattern, but the Bull Score (30) remains at the boundary between bear and neutral markets.
4️⃣ MicroStrategy (Saylor) Reserves:
Holding 884,377 BTC, total value $54.36 billion, average cost $75,653 (current unrealized loss -14.84%). Saylor tweeted that "another color is needed," and the market speculates it may introduce new asset reserves.
5️⃣ Macro and Policy Correlations:
The US and Iran confirmed the continued communication of information;
Charles Schwab has recognized the Clarity Act as the industry's most critical catalyst.
📊 Institutional Funding's Moves (Data from Friday, July 24, Eastern Time)
BTC ETF
🔴 Net outflow for the day: -$240.1 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (IBIT): -$212.2 million
• Fidelity (FBTC): -$27.9 million
Historical Data:
The cumulative net inflow of BTC ETFs across the entire network was $51.439 billion (IBIT cumulative +60.394 billion / GBTC cumulative -27.416 billion yuan).
ETH ETF
🔴 Single-day net outflow: -$70.7 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (ETHA): -$52.8 million
• Fidelity (FETH): -$27.8 million
🟢 Major counter-trend inflows: • Grayscale (ETH): +$9.9 million
Historical data: Total net inflow of ETH ETFs across the network was $11.211 billion (ETHA cumulative +11.41 billion / ETHE cumulative -5.337 billion).
📈 Market sentiment and macro indicators
Coinbase Premium Index: -0.09 (US institutional spot selling pressure is high)
Korean kimchi premium: -0.3 (retail sentiment is lukewarm)
Panic and Greed Index: 29 (in the "Panic" range)
Counterfeit Season Index / Total Network RSI: Counterfeit Season Index 54 (Neutral) | Overall RSI Average 51.96 (Neutral)
The DXY US Dollar Index retreated to 101.32, while spot gold remained fluctuating near $4,099/oz
📉 Derivatives and long-short game data
Total transaction volume across the entire network in 24 hours: $107.753 billion (+57.84%)
Total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours: $218 million (+164.15%)
Total Open Interest (OI): $115.252 billion (+0.60%)
BTC
Price: approximately $65,380.2 (+1.41%)
Funding rate: 0.0070%
Total Open Interest (OI): $48.359 billion
24-hour liquidation: $37.7472 million
Distribution of long and short positions: 24-hour long-short ratio across the network 50.72% / 49.28%;
Binance's large account long-short ratio is 1.63.
Depth and order wall: Currently breaking through the previous sell order wall and consolidating at $65,280, accumulating a score of 73 (bullish), with core resistance above at the $66,000 sell order wall.
ETH
Price: approximately $1,957.47 (+4.13%)
Funding rate: 0.0074%
Open interest (OI) across the entire network: $28.022 billion
24-hour liquidation: $92.3682 million
Depth and suppression: Touching the native sell order wall, with three strong resistance levels distributed between $2,125 and above.
🔍 In-depth on-chain and technical observation
1️⃣ Severe Divergence Between Spot and Futures Demand:
BTC futures demand indicators have turned positive, but spot demand remains negative. Because spot selling exceeds futures buying, overall demand is in negative territory. This round of rally is essentially derivatives squeeze rather than genuine buying. In terms of liquidity, USDC maintained net inflows (US institutions are holding up defense), while USDT saw slight outflows (low non-US activity).
2️⃣ Cycle pattern and RSI recovery:
The 30MA and 90MA of the MVRV ratio are rapidly converging, and after the June death cross, a low-level golden cross is about to occur. The Bull Score Index rose to 30 (having escaped the extreme bear zone of 10); The LTH/STH SOPR ratio has broken through 1, and the relative profit ratio between long-term and short-term holders has returned to balance.
3️⃣ On-chain Tokens and Physical Activity:
"Little whales" holding 100~1,000 BTC have returned to unrealized profits, which historically has been one of the signals confirming a rebound.
4️⃣ ETH/BTC Structure Analysis:
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has converged to the end of a nearly 9-year cycle.
💬 In short
Derivatives leverage and on-chain technical indicators are recovering at low levels, but ETF outflows and negative spot demand have exposed the weakness of a lack of buying capital. Before the $66,000 resistance hit, blindly chase the rally is avoided.
💵 Understanding capital trends is more important 💵 than predicting prices
$BTC $ETH
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Changxin Technology's push for a STAR Market listing signifies that China's DRAM industry is moving toward a larger capital market. With its local supply chain, massive domestic demand, and pricing strategy, Changxin may indeed capture more of the mid- to low-end market, and may even force Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to readjust their pricing. However, low prices are only part of the competitive edge; the real battles in the memory industry also include manufacturing processes, yields, HBM technology, customer certifications, and equipment acquisition. Especially under the Trump administration's emphasis on "America First," semiconductor policy may still focus on protecting American manufacturing and supply chains. In the past, the U.S. has imposed a 50% Section 301 tariff on Chinese semiconductors, and has provided Micron with subsidies up to about $6.165 billion through the CHIPS Act, while imposing export controls to restrict the flow of advanced semiconductor equipment and HBM-related technologies to China. If Changxin rapidly expands its global market share in the future, the U.S. may still raise tariffs, expand the restricted list, or further tighten equipment and technology exports. My View: Therefore, I believe Changxin will be a major variable in the global storage market, but in the long run, Micron, $SAMSUNG, and $SKHYNIX still have advantages in technology, customers, and supply chains. If you are optimistic about AI driving memory demand but don't want to put all your eggs in one basket, you can consider $DRAM to diversify across multiple global memory companies and reduce policy and technical risks for a single company.
The above content reflects only personal views and market observations and does not constitute any investment advice. Investments should still be made based on your own risk tolerance, financial situation, and research decisions$SKHYNIX The Q2 earnings report will be released on July 29. The core contradiction lies in the battle between extremely high fundamental expectations and the pressure to sell positions with high leverage. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode.
Institutions forecast single-quarter operating profit of 64.1 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of nearly 600%, surpassing its total profits for the full year 2025 and establishing the explosive potential of the HBM structural cycle. An estimated operating margin of 75%-77% confirms the strong pricing power of high value-added products; however, the stock price has already drawn more than 30% from its peak, reflecting market concerns about the clearing of capital leverage.
The transmission path of event risk mainly focuses on rebalancing position structure and risk appetite. Retail investors' high-leverage funds enter concentriously before the earnings report milestone, amplifying short-term volatility and intensifying the short-term disconnect between price trends and fundamentals.
If the profit margin remains steadily above 75% after the earnings report and high leverage does not trigger a stampede, the stock price is likely to trigger a rebound scenario. This scenario requires observing the absorption of selling pressure on the day of the earnings report. If the volume volume breaks through the pullback trendline without liquidation stamping, the high valuation clearance phase will end.
If the earnings report is realized and triggers profit-taking exit and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, the stock price will trigger a second bottoming scenario. At this point, it is important to closely monitor the degree of stampede by high-leverage funds. If the pullback further expands and breaks below key support, the deleveraging process will be forced to prolong.
The signal of the upward scenario fails is that after the positive financial report materializes, turnover rates surge, but prices have not reached local highs, indicating that long funds are unable to absorb profit-taking. The downward scenario failed, with selling pressure being absorbed by strong buying immediately after the earnings report was released, with leverage ratios dropping rapidly and prices stabilizing after a stabilization.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the speed of leveraged capital deposition and turnover rate before and after the July 29 earnings release.
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Positive Moments or Shortcoming?A month or two ago, those who asked on the timeline whether Google, Micron, and Intel were already out of stock have gone silent now. When prices rise, they are bullish; when prices fall, they are bearish. What should be done?
The odds are indeed not as high as during the US-Iran conflict three months ago, when I straightforwardly said buy the dip.
Now it’s the left side; the closer to the valuation floor, the more worth buying in batches. Valuation and investment strategies have been shared in the subscription.
No leverage, no all-in, no all-out. Skin in the game.
Last April, when $GOOG was 140, $INTC 20, and $MU 70, no one could clearly say how these companies would make money three years later. Now it’s clear, the valuation multiples haven’t changed, but people are afraid to buy.
This is the definition of cognitive difference. The same valuation multiples last year meant uncertainty. Now buying means buying something already validated. The visibility of the denominator is completely different, yet the market demands the same or even higher discounts. The risk premium that should be compressed hasn’t been compressed.
So what is falling now? It’s the leverage from the excess returns between late March and May. Crowded trades clearing out, quarterly balancing, mid-year locking in floating profits.
These things have nothing to do with the company’s cash flow over the next three years. Investing in Capex now is infrastructure; airports must be built first before tickets can be sold one by one. I have shared that cash flow is very likely positive by 2028.
But institutions are assessed quarterly and must deliver relative returns within the window. Retail investors don’t have to play by these rules; time is the only structural advantage for retail investors, emotion is the biggest shortcoming, and the vast majority don’t understand the companies they invest in—this is what Burry rightly said.
Take a look at the articles I’ve shared about company fundamental analysis, which also include valuation and buyer records. Most people happen to give up on it when prices get cheap.
A stock price drop after a good earnings report doesn’t mean the fundamentals have been falsified. Strong stocks entering high-volatility consolidation don’t mean the long-term trend is over.
The long-term value of many excellent companies is precisely what keeps increasing during the decline.
Skin in the game. True investing is not about avoiding all volatility but knowing why you deserve to endure this volatility.From a medium- to long-term geopolitical perspective, both the US and Iran have strong economic incentives to ease tensions. Coupled with the implementation of a ceasefire memorandum and ongoing multilateral mediation, a phased reconciliation is an inevitable trend, and the geopolitical premium on crude oil will continue to decline.
The core anchor for global asset pricing remains the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Considering the current sticky inflation, resilient non-farm payrolls, and the latest dot plot guidance, there are only two possible policy paths within the year: maintaining the current high interest rates or resuming rate hikes; there is absolutely no basis for rate cuts.
The new chairman, Waller, sent a clear hawkish signal in his debut. His monetarist philosophy and tough anti-inflation stance are consistent over the long term. Even if there is no rate hike in this round of meetings, the tone remains hawkish. Market expectations for easing should not be overly relied upon. This is my personal opinion for reference only. 海峡双航道、乌克兰贸然袭击伊朗资源船只，今天的信息密度还是可以的
这也与我上周的分析基本吻合，美伊局势发展至今，要么All in 打一个昏天暗地，俄乌与美伊战争混战，S3概率提升
要么偃旗息鼓，双方各退一步，回归技术性谈判，进入长期的外交斡旋阶段
只要不是疯子，都不会选择all in，特朗普虽然癫了点，但是也不是战争疯子，这是可以预见的！
能源价格快速回落是预料之中，不过细节处可以发现，国际原油与美油之间的价差在快速缩减
这意味着美国本身的能源价格压力实际上更大！#美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 With today's market situation, I finally feel like I'm catching my breath.
The US-Iran conflict has temporarily cooled down, oil prices have plunged sharply, Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000, and Ethereum has rebounded even more fiercely. To put it simply, the market hasn't suddenly strengthened, but rather that the war and inflation expectations that had been weighing on have temporarily eased a bit.
But right now, I really don't dare get too excited.
Because this week still includes the Fed meeting, US GDP and PCE data, plus tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon releasing earnings reports, any result that falls short of expectations could further dampen the sentiment that has just returned.
Moreover, although Bitcoin broke through $65,000, its trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that many people are still watching and have not truly started chasing aggressively.
So my current attitude is still the same as always:
The rebound is worth watching, but hold on for chasing highs.
Do you think you can hold onto 65,000 this time, or will it come back in a couple of days? $BTC #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌
Breaking news: oil prices dropped 6%, the market is rushing ahead, and a bit too hastily.
The 6% drop in oil prices is a rush, not a fair valuation. The US military's pause in airstrikes is a fact; Brent crude briefly fell below $90 intraday, but there's a huge difference between "pause" and "ceasefire." Iran's stance is "more skeptical than optimistic," and the White House has clearly stated that if negotiations don't progress, a full-scale war resumption will definitely be considered. More critically, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed; fewer than 10 bulk commodity ships pass daily over the weekend. The oil price plunge is more about emotional release and short covering; the geopolitical risk itself has not eased in any substantive way.
Prediction markets give a 75% probability, but I am much more pessimistic than that. Polymarket's 75% seriously overestimates the likelihood of an agreement by the end of August. The US-Iran conflict has lasted nearly five months, mutual trust is almost zero, and two weeks is not even enough time to get both sides to the negotiating table. Prediction markets tend to amplify short-term optimistic expectations during extreme sentiment, so their reference value is limited.
A 6% drop in oil prices will not change the wording of the FOMC decision on Thursday. The Federal Reserve meets July 28-29, with the probability of a rate hike once approaching 40%. A single-day oil price fluctuation will not make the Fed reverse its judgment within three days—they focus on trends, not noise. Maintaining rates unchanged remains the most likely outcome, but the statement wording will likely lean hawkish.
My position is waiting for the FOMC decision statement early Thursday morning. BTC has returned above 65,000, Nasdaq futures opened higher, and risk assets are rebounding, but this is a news-driven emotional recovery, not a trend reversal. What I am waiting for is the Fed's official characterization of inflation and geopolitical risks—if the wording is dovish, it means the oil price drop carries weight in their eyes and they can raise rates; if hawkish, it means they don't consider this fluctuation significant, and this rebound is a chance to escape.
Jumping in now is betting on a ceasefire agreement within two weeks—that's too big a gamble, I won't take it. Do you like to gamble? 2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapsed, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapsed, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC $63,000, bottoming out in 2-3 weeks?
Every time, the market says, "This time is different."
Every time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: the market caps of BTC in the first three rounds were $2B, $20B, and $300B respectively. Now it's $1.3T.
Same rules, but on a larger scale. $BTC $ETH $SOL🚨 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently stated that this round of Bitcoin adjustments may be nearing its end.
He believes the market has completed this important bottoming process, with BTC holding steady near $70,000 recently, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. For true long-term investors, short-term fluctuations are simply the market norm, not trend reversals.
Armstrong stated that institutional funds continue to flow into the digital asset market. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract stable funding, with many listed companies continuing to increase their holdings of BTC as reserve assets. Many countries around the world are accelerating the improvement of their crypto asset regulatory frameworks, bringing a clearer development environment to the industry.
Meanwhile, there are several other important recent positive developments worth noting:
📈 The U.S. market continues to focus on the Fed's future policy path, and the market generally expects the liquidity environment to further improve.
🏦 Several international financial institutions announced plans to expand their digital asset and stablecoin-related businesses, accelerating the construction of blockchain payment infrastructure.
⚡ Enterprise-level Bitcoin adoption continues to rise, with more institutions viewing BTC as an important component of long-term asset allocation.
🤖 New tracks such as AI, RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization), and on-chain finance continue to attract capital attention, injecting new growth momentum into the entire crypto market.
Although short-term market volatility may still occur, Armstrong believes the fundamentals driving Bitcoin's rally remain solid. Each reasonable pullback feels more like gathering strength for the next rally, rather than a signal to panic about.
$BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #Crypto #FOMC #AI #RWA Micron vs Kioxia, has the storage cycle reversed?
Micron's earnings just came out, market reactions are polarized.
The AI computing power chain is the biggest beta from 2024 to 2026.
HBM revenue year-over-year +60%. The most direct beta for AI computing demand.
Micron vs Kioxia. Both companies' cycles have reversed, and the storage sector is collectively rising.
HBM unit price. HBM3E 12-layer is 5 times more expensive than DDR5.
These data are not isolated; resonance must be considered.
No one knows the bottom, so don’t rush.
📌 Three things to watch beyond revenue for AI demand
Quarterly earnings reports of semiconductor companies are important, but you can’t just look at revenue growth. You also need to see if HBM capacity can be delivered, whether gross margin improvements are sustainable, and if customer capital expenditures will shift from training to inference. Strong demand doesn’t mean all suppliers can convert it into free cash flow.
🧭 How I track this
First, look at order visibility and capacity utilization. Second, check the alignment of product prices, yields, and capital expenditures. Third, cross-verify company performance with peers, upstream equipment suppliers, and downstream cloud service providers. If only the stock price rises without fundamentals catching up, I treat it as a trade, not a long-term position.
⚠️ Risk reminder
AI narratives tend to price in long-term expectations prematurely, and supply increases or delayed customer spending can cause sharp volatility. Observing earnings is not investment advice; decisions should be based on your own time horizon and risk tolerance.
🎯 Final execution framework
First, observe if performance is validated for two consecutive quarters, then control volatility with phased and capped positions; don’t ignore valuation and exit conditions just because of a hot label.
I break this topic into three layers. The first layer is directly observable data—record values, timing, and direction to avoid drawing conclusions from a single chart. The second layer is market reaction—data improving but prices stagnant, or data weakening but prices still rising, which have completely different implications. The third layer is your own action—write down the maximum tolerable loss before deciding whether to adjust your position. This sequence may seem slow but reduces being swayed by a single headline.
For me, order visibility, capacity utilization, and valuation should be compared on the same chart. Each update only changes parts with new evidence; don’t flip your entire judgment because of one number. If the three observation directions conflict, I downgrade the conclusion to "waiting for confirmation" rather than forcing a bullish or bearish story. The most overlooked cost in the market is prematurely locking in assumptions and then unwillingness to admit they have failed.
In execution, I first test with an observation position; when volume, price, and fundamentals align in at least two aspects, I consider increasing exposure; if volatility expands or liquidity thins, I reduce the position first. Any backtesting, historical cases, or KOL opinions can only be used to build hypotheses, not replace current risk checks. This content is my research notes, not guaranteed buy or sell instructions.
In the next update, I will re-examine four things: whether the news is still valid, if price reactions are confirmed, if liquidity is sufficient to execute, and if the original risk assumptions have been broken. If it’s just social media hype without volume or capital support, I treat it as a signal to watch; if data direction changes, I will also revise the original script rather than holding on for face.
The benefit of this approach is separating "views" from "actions." Views can hold multiple possibilities, but actions must have clear triggers. For short-term trades, I set a time limit; for mid-to-long-term positions, I check fundamentals and cost of capital. Regardless of the outcome, I record entry reasons, exit reasons, and actual slippage so the next time there is real material for improvement.
If data sources conflict, I mark the conflict and wait for original announcements or the next time point for confirmation, not replacing evidence with social media sentiment. This also means sometimes the best action is to stay out and wait, because not trading is also managing uncertainty.Another exchange collapsed. Yesterday, BitMart announced its closure. In the past 24 hours, only 58 wallets were able to withdraw, with a total withdrawal amount of about $805,000, and no withdrawals processed in the past 8 hours.
In recent years, there have been too many contract gurus figures with the image of stable profits multiplying dozens of times a year. They package their trading curves, showcase screenshots of sudden wealth, and then guide users to small platforms with no guaranteed liquidity or risk control
During bull markets, all problems are covered by price increases, but in bear markets, after liquidity fades, true strength is proven. Small firms' problems don't erupt overnight; they accumulate gradually during bear markets, with declining trading volume, reduced income, and increased capital chain pressure
So often, don't be tempted by stories about guaranteed profits doubling your investment. Those people usually end up with some little scam firm, and when you can't withdraw your funds, you'll be in tears.$ETH
Still hesitating for Ethereum under 2000?
Time to get in the car!
Currently, the price of Ethereum is about 1950!
The first major event, and the most tangible signal: the number of people queuing for staking and exiting has been completely wiped out!
To give you an analogy, staking is like a fixed deposit—you have to deposit 32 ETH to participate, and you have to queue up to withdraw your money.
Last year, when the market was bad, a bunch of big players lined up to withdraw money, with long lines waiting dozens of days to withdraw. At that time, the big players were all fleeing, and the market definitely fell.
Now, on the other hand, no one is lining up to withdraw money; they can take it anytime they want, which shows that the big holders stockpiling ether have no intention of selling at all.
Not only did no one leave, but a pile of funds lined up to deposit it—over 2.4 million ETH waiting to be pledged, with the queue taking more than forty days to deposit.
To put it simply: smart people are quietly hoarding, and no one wants to sell or dump, making it hard for the market to drop sharply.
The second issue is that the U.S. regulatory bill has failed, and it won't be resolved before the August holidays.
Previously, many people hoped for this bill to be implemented, hoping that once official rules were established, big institutions would flood in and buy coins.
Now, with no short-term hope, many retail investors are anxious, afraid the market will continue to stall.
But just look at the big players' actions—if they were really afraid of trouble, they'd have lined up to withdraw money and run off, but instead, they locked up their holdings and didn't move.
Simply put, retail investors are startled by rumors, while truly wealthy investors only care about long-term value and remain unfazed.
Third, the conflict in the Middle East has eased a bit. Previously, people were afraid of wars and sold their coins to exchange for US dollars as a safe haven.
It's not as tight now, and the market is a bit looser, which has helped Ethereum hold up some of the bottom; otherwise, prices would have continued to decline today.
Now, let me share my honest opinion:
1. Don't expect big surges or drops in the short term; right now it's just a tempting fluctuation. The price below 1870 is hard support and will be hard to break below
2. No need to panic and sell losses every day; big players hold onto their funds. Opportunities to sell ETH are becoming scarce and scarce. A big drop is a chance to buy bargains—don't panic and sell your positions just because it drops.
3. Avoid those messy meme coins and meme tokens; all price movements rely on hype, resetting zero at will. The risk is too high, so focus on mainstream reliable Ethereum stocks.
4. If you can hold long-term, don't panic. Most of Ether is now locked and pledged, and fewer coins circulate in the market. If there's any positive news in the future, the price will be strong.
One last piece of advice: Don't follow news and trade frequently; if you keep struggling, you'll lose a lot on fees. Only by holding onto the bottom chip can you make money! The rise in BTC dominance and ETH/BTC falling below 0.05 indicate that the market appears to be structurally differentiated, and real pricing is laying the groundwork for a systemic decline.
Is the market shifting from a "selective counterfeit rebound" to a "full-line liquidity exhaustion"?
- Original fact: BTC dominance is 56.8% and is rising; ETH/BTC fell below 0.05; altcoin 20-day moving average volume is 18% below the average. The original text divides the market into four stages: BTC/ETH/SOL leading the gains; Some altcoins (JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP) followed the rise; Weak coins (BEAT, COAI, SPACE, VIRTUAL) only rebounded slightly; The final stage is a reversal of leading coins and triggering a sell-off. Currently, the third phase is underway.
- Structural changes: altcoin volume has shrunk by 18% and is below the 20-day moving average, indicating that buying is exhausting rather than rotational. The rise in BTC dominance means funds are flowing from altcoins to BTC, but the institutional signal that ETH/BTC fell below 0.05 indicates that BTC's capital inflows are not from new buying but from existing safe-haven assets. The market is undergoing a defensive position adjustment of "selling offcoins, not buying ETH, holding BTC cash equivalents."
- Pricing impact: Altcoins lack new buy orders, so the rebound depends on BTC's sustained rise to drive risk appetite. However, the rise in BTC dominance itself suppresses altcoin valuations, creating negative feedback. If BTC fails to break through the current high, the altcoin will be directly under pressure; If BTC pulls back, altcoins are likely to fall even further. ETH/BTC falling below 0.05 indicates reduced institutional willingness to allocate ETH, further weakening overall market liquidity.
- Bullish path: BTC maintains high volatility and drives a decline in dominance. When altcoins recover trading volume above 30% and ETH/BTC returns to 0.05, they may start a catch-up rally before the fourth phase. The 30% increase in trading volume mentioned in the original text for LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP is a local observation point.
- Bearish risk: BTC dominance continues to rise to around 58%, ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.045, and altcoin volume can further shrink to below 25% of the 20-day moving average. At this point, the fourth phase (the leading coin reversal sell-off) will be triggered, and the market will enter a full-scale decline. The original warning that "just one bad piece of news will lead to a sell-off" is a reasonable expectation.
- Conclusion: The current market is not rotating, but rather a one-way contraction of liquidity from altcoins to BTC to cash. Holding cash is currently the most effective position.
Risk: If altcoin volume remains below more than 20% of the 20-day moving average, the rebound structure will fail.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #加密货币 #市场分析Bitcoin $BTC is very likely to follow a recurrent oscillation pattern similar to February to May. At this stage, there will not be unilateral sharp rises or falls, but rather repeated sideways movements. Altcoins may actually have opportunities for rotational momentum recently.
I think it's hard to call it a major bottom right now. The timing and magnitude of the adjustment haven't been in place yet, and with no expectations for rate cuts at the time, there's a lack of upward catalyst. Moreover, historically, during U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has mostly experienced varying degrees of correction, so the probability of a direct bottom here is very low.
History never fully repeats itself, but trends will always be highly similar. The real bottom often appears when the market is panicked and everyone is hesitant and doubtful.[Graphic Observation | Oil Price Transmission] At 12:45 Beijing time, WTI was $83.4750 (-6.41%), Brent was $87.5200 (-6.06%), with a price difference of about $4.05 per barrel.
Observation perspective: Here, it's not just about oil price fluctuations, but about their transmission to inflation expectations, dollar liquidity, and risk asset valuations. If oil prices rise but the dollar strengthens in tandem, crypto assets may actually come under pressure.
Background of Golden October: Why have the US dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? | Gold October futures heat chart—breaking traditional logic! With the US dollar strengthening, gold and crude oil should be under pressure to fall. But in reality, why have the dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? A chart to understand.
Verification point: WTI holds above the 20-day moving average and the spread is stable, showing a range-bound consolidation; If the spread widens and falls below the moving average, demand pressure will be priced in again.
Risk warning: If OPEC+ caliber, inventory, or geopolitical events exceed expectations, the above transmission observations may need to be revalued. For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
Changxin Technology debuted on the STAR Market with a strong opening on its first day, reaching a market value of ¥3.31 trillion, instantly becoming the largest stock by market cap in the A-share market. This figure is not a bubble; it reflects the market pricing a fact: China's storage production capacity has officially entered the global competitive pricing system.
The timing is very precise and deliberate.
Just one week before the listing, Anthropic locked in Samsung and SK Hynix, NVIDIA invested in South Korea's Naver, and the narrative of AI orders concentrating on the Korean giants had just taken shape. Changxin's listing at this moment is not about riding the hype; it is signaling to the market that the storage war is not yet decided, and Chinese production capacity is the third variable.
The KOSPI index rose more than 1.7% in early trading today but then turned down, indicating the market is re-pricing the competitive landscape. Samsung and SK Hynix secured large orders from Anthropic and NVIDIA, but Changxin's entry is loosening their pricing power, giving buyers an additional bargaining chip.
I believe the real highlights are not the first-day gains but the two variables ahead.
First is the DRAM contract price.
After Changxin scales up mass production, the negotiation logic for contract prices will change. The Korean giants' current pricing advantage is based on relatively concentrated supply; with Chinese capacity entering, this foundation is loosening. It won't be a cliff drop, but the direction is clear.
Second is the pace of capacity expansion by each player.
Will Samsung and SK Hynix accelerate HBM capacity expansion to reinforce their high-end barriers because of Changxin's entry? If they choose to move upward and let Changxin occupy the mid-to-low end, the entire storage market will see clear stratification, and valuation logic will diverge accordingly.
XNVDA rose 0.35% today, Samsung fell 0.55%, and XSKHY dropped 0.79%; this divergence itself is the answer. NVIDIA is not afraid of intensified storage competition because computing power demand is expanding, and falling storage prices actually reduce its procurement costs. The pressure is on Korean storage manufacturers, especially the pricing space for mid-to-low-end DRAM.
Changxin's listing is a starting point, not an endpoint. The dual-giant structure is becoming a three-party one; this won't complete in a single quarter, but from today, the global storage pricing model needs to add a new variable.
DYOR Not investment advice 比特币目前卡在64,300美元附近窄幅震荡，方向感极度缺失。真正值得警惕的是资金面的暗流——过去两天比特币ETF净流出超过4.65亿美元，机构不是在抄底，而是在有序撤退。这根本不是蓄力上攻的信号，而是主力在借震荡悄悄派发筹码。📉
以太坊相对稳一些，靠着ETF资金流的持续支撑，周末回落后反弹至1,860美元附近，暂时守住了阵地。但宏观环境并不友好：原油价格持续走高，美国10年期国债收益率同步上行，双重压力推升避险情绪，理论上对风险资产是利空。另一边，CLARITY法案的监管推进与特朗普被曝出的加密货币利益问题，又让市场对政策解读变得异常谨慎，多空情绪被拉锯到极致。🔥
技术面上，当前关键支撑在64,253美元，阻力在64,409美元，区间极度狭窄，多空双方都没有发力迹象，典型的“等消息”型盘面。这个阶段的比特币不是要涨，而是在等——等下周货币政策会议的结果，等ETF资金真正转为净流入，等油价与地缘风险降温。在趋势确认之前，与其猜方向，不如盯着真金白银的流向。DYOR。🧠
#加密货币 #btc #ethHBULL has just seen a change more alarming than the price drop: the creator's direct position rose from about 6.20% to 8.70%, while an address that originally held 2.50% exits the front line. The exact number on both sides matches perfectly, indicating that a lock of tokens likely returned to the creator's disposable wallet.
Contract: 7V6Sk63y8Rr1MvcN5mYNp61wgFhy4EeQg5gUASk9pump
The total source of the project tokens remains about 23.70%, but the risk structure has changed—previously 17.50% was spread across seven locked addresses, but now only six, and the share directly controlled by creators has become 8.70%. At current prices, the nominal value is about $122,000, slightly higher than the main pool's total depth of about $117,000; The impact when actually sold would be much greater than this simple conversion.
Next, let's look at three things: whether the project team disclosed the source and use of this 2.50% loan; Whether these coins have been re-locked and cannot be freely withdrawn; Did the creators transfer the coins to the trading pool? If the creator starts selling, continues to receive locked positions, or multiple project wallets are pooled simultaneously, I will give up on observing.
FAL also had its ups and downs: cumulative burns within two hours increased from 2.515% to 2.808%, and total supply continued to decrease; But prices fell about 24%, and Chishen dropped about 14%. Newly obtained holdings data show that after excluding pool custody contracts, the top ten account for about 22.86%, which is neither safe nor out of control. Just because the product mechanism is working doesn't mean the market will definitely buy it.
There is also an early web game called GridClimb, which already has open beta, daily tournaments, sprint sessions, leaderboard pages, and contracts like DyFGNzidqg1CJtUNfXkLd9mQ5BsoxKUxiBHx54vDpump. However, it only has 89 token-holding addresses and about $3,200 in curve reserves, lacking independent player evidence, and is only suitable for further verification. High-risk research records, not trade advice.The party holding the authority to submit amendments relented and decided to open the proposal channel between both parties, finally giving the encrypted clarity bill a chance to be voted on.
Most bills were not rejected by opposing votes, but were simply shelved because they couldn't enter the voting process. The Democrats, premised on bipartisan cooperation, demanded the submission of Loomis's amendment, and thus both sides returned to the negotiating table. The initiation of the process itself was a key step forward.
Previously, there were no clear legal provisions in the industry, and the definition of securities and commodities depended entirely on regulatory discretion and litigation, so capital had long flowed to countries with transparent rules. Now, both sides have proposed amendments, not to abolish the bill, but to openly refine the clauses, putting the rules on paper and no longer relying on personal subjective judgment.
Setting rules requires pushing for the implementation of votes, while a state of disorder that can be left unchecked can continue. The previously arbitrary pattern has finally started to reverse this time, and signals of bill advancement have appeared. #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? 海力士这波杀跌，别扯基本面，就是一场血腥的“卸杠杆”
今天收盘176,500韩元，又跌了快8%。算上今天，一个月跌掉40%。
有人问：海力士怎么了？HBM不卖了？AI不搞了？
别扯了。什么都没变，变的是人心和仓位。
说白了，这轮下跌，就是一场血腥的卸杠杆游戏。
第一，市场终于回过神来了——投AI也是要算账的
谷歌、微软财报都看了吧？数字漂亮，但市场不买账。为什么？因为大家突然发现，你们投了那么多钱，自由现金流反而绷紧了。
之前市场是傻子逻辑——谁投AI多，我就买谁。现在是稍微清醒了一点——你投100块，到底能赚回多少？什么时候赚？
这个“稍微清醒”，对海力士这种卖铲子的，是致命打击。不是铲子不好卖了，而是矿主们开始掂量口袋里的钱了。
第二，涨价游戏玩不下去了
上半年HBM涨、DDR5涨、NAND涨，什么都涨。市场已经把未来两年的涨价预期都交易进去了。
然后TrendForce这种机构开始吹风——部分NAND需求正常化。正常化？翻译成人话就是：涨不动了。
股价里已经装了100分的涨价预期，现在现实可能只有85分。那15分的落差，谁来买单？当然是追高的散户和杠杆党。
第三，这才是最关键的——韩股那帮杠杆资金在互相踩踏
韩国散户有多猛，不用我多说。单股杠杆ETF、杠杆基金，堆了多少？跌了就要砍，砍了继续跌，跌了再砍。
这不是基本面定价，这是流动性绞杀。
外资和机构上周卖了2.6万亿韩元。谁接的？没人接。那就只能自由落体。
至于什么崔泰源离婚要卖股票——别信那个鬼故事。他根本不直接持股海力士。这纯粹是下跌时候媒体找的“背锅侠”，让散户有个能骂的对象而已。
技术面，我就说一句人话：
175万这个位置，是最后的体面。守住了，还能喘口气。守不住，下面168万见。
往上？先站回190万再跟我谈止跌。200万以上？那是多头做梦的地方。
最后说句实在话。
我不会因为跌了40%就觉得便宜。A股港股那种“越跌越买”的思维，在韩股杠杆盘面前，容易被反复收割。
但我也不同意那些说“AI存储周期结束”的鬼话。HBM的供需缺口还在，英伟达的订单还在，海力士的技术优势还在。
什么都没变，变的是价格里已经装了多少预期。
现在的问题是：预期从“极度乐观”拧到“极度悲观”，这个过程还没走完。
7月29日财报，要么是止血针，要么是第二刀。
我个人偏向前者——但不妨碍我现在先站着看，不伸手。
记住：真正的底部，是那些杠杆爆仓的人割完肉之后，才出现的。现在，还没听见响。#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced. This is the biggest macro event for the global risk markets this week, and the crypto market is very likely to experience a sharp wave of volatility.
Current market expectations are clearly divided. The baseline judgment of the vast majority of institutional economists is to maintain the current interest rate range unchanged, but CME interest rate futures have already priced in nearly a 30% chance of a rate hike. This level of uncertainty is very high compared to previous monetary policy cycles, indicating that both bulls and bears are cautious. On one hand, the June CPI data showed a significant decline and nonfarm payroll data weakened, providing reasons for the Fed to hold steady; on the other hand, the Middle East situation repeatedly disrupts oil prices, which could rebound at any time, posing a risk of inflation resurgence. Hawkish officials continue to keep the possibility of restarting rate hikes open. It is worth noting that this meeting will not update the dot plot, so the chairman's remarks at the post-meeting press conference will become the biggest trigger for the market, with every statement directly stirring the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
For the crypto market, the Fed's policy is always the underlying command baton that cannot be ignored. Interest-free risk assets like Bitcoin have valuations highly tied to the U.S. dollar liquidity environment. If this decision leans hawkish, signaling concerns about inflation and implying room for future rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, directly suppressing risk appetite for crypto assets and likely causing price pressure and pullbacks; conversely, if the speech signals dovishness, acknowledging economic weakness and completely dismissing the possibility of rate hikes, risk assets will see a short-term emotional recovery.
However, we cannot simply bet in black and white terms. The current situation is prone to "reversal upon landing": even if rates remain unchanged, a tough tone in the press conference will still be interpreted as hawkish; conversely, even if policy flexibility is retained but concerns about the economy are expressed, funds may interpret this as positive. Many traders have suffered losses by focusing only on the rate decision and ignoring the verbal signals afterward, ultimately being caught in the back-and-forth market swings.
At the same time, external variables cannot be ignored. The oil price fluctuations caused by the U.S.-Iran situation will indirectly constrain the Fed's actions. If oil prices surge again and inflationary pressure returns, even if the Fed holds steady this time, the probability of future rate hikes will increase, and this long-term shadow will hang over the market.
From a practical perspective, it is not suitable to take heavy one-sided positions before and after the decision. Instant spikes and sweeping orders back and forth are normal when the news breaks. Spot holders should focus on changes in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to judge whether the market is undergoing genuine recovery or just a short-term emotional pulse. Do not bet on a fixed outcome; prepare plans and have corresponding responses ready whether the tone is hawkish or dovish.
Macro factors will not directly determine price moves over a few days but will define the broader market environment for the coming period. The statement early Thursday will set the tone for global markets in the weeks ahead. We patiently await the signal to land.
$BTC $ETH Changxin goes public with a big listing! It will have a significant impact on US tech stocks. Changxin: Only makes DRAM memory chips (computers, servers, car system RAM), not NAND flash, USB drives, or solid-state drives; Micron: Across all tracks, DRAM as the main focus, also considering NAND, automotive-grade storage, and AI high-end HBM; SanDisk: Pure NAND flash memory track, mainly selling USB flash drives, mobile solid-state drives, and consumer-grade SSDs, with almost no DRAM production capacity; Tesla: Downstream storage automaker, purchasing Micron DRAM for autonomous driving and in-car computing power. Micron: Medium- to long-term negative factors, short-term sentiment under pressure (biggest impact) Direct impact logic: Changxin raised tens of billions to fully expand DRAM production and lay out automotive/server DDR5 and HBM high-end memory; Currently, 90% of the global DRAM market share is monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Changxin's 2028 global market share target is 17%, directly dividing Micron's global DRAM base. Domestic government, enterprises, and cloud providers (Alibaba, ByteDance, automakers) prioritize purchasing of domestic Changxin, Micron lost massive domestic server and consumer electronics DRAM orders, significantly weakening its pricing power. The three overseas giants can no longer jointly control production and drive up memory prices, the storage price hike cycle has peaked, suppressing Micron's gross margin. Short-term market reaction: On the day news of Changxin's listing was announced, the US storage sector plunged across the board, with Micron dropping nearly 7% in a single day, as funds priced in in the expectation of "domestic expansion squeezing overseas market share." Buffer and Hedging Point: Micron's strengths lie in high-end HBM and automotive-grade storage🧵 BTC long-bear extreme battle! ETFs have seen large outflows for two consecutive days, with the fear index hitting a low of 29. Are institutional players picking up chips or preparing to dump?
Market segment: BTC is currently quoted at $65,218, up 1.16% in 24H. Today, after hitting a low of $64,236, it rebounded strongly and reached a high of $65,461, with fluctuations exceeding $1,200. Currently, the price is repeatedly tuggling around $65,200, which serves as the support level of the daily Bollinger middle band, with a significant divergence between bulls and bears. On the hourly chart, after a short break from $65,100 to $65,460 in early Asian trading, there was a clear pullback, indicating considerable selling pressure above.
On-chain segment: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows over the past two consecutive trading days—$225M outflow on July 23, and another $240M outflow on July 24. This is not a good sign. But looking at July as a whole, net ETF inflows for the month still reached $970M+, indicating institutional bottom-ups. On the Solana side of smart money, CBBTC (Coinbase Wrapped BTC) led with a net inflow of $970,000. CBBTC is the core channel bridging BTC into the Solana ecosystem, indicating that on-chain funds are accumulating. JIMOTHY and CRCLX also saw net inflows exceeding $700,000, and sentiment on the Solana chain has clearly warmed up.
My judgment: The fear index of 29 is still hovering in the Fear range, so short-term ETF outflows are more like a temporary profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. Remain bullish until $64,200 is not broken, but $65,600 is a key resistance level this week; if it fails to break through, a pullback to $63,800 is highly likely. Medium- and long-term holders should actually be happy at this point—when others panic, their chips are cheaper. Short-term traders should pay attention to controlling leverage, as volatility is clearly amplifying.2026年7月27日（周一）以太坊今日分析——承接上周“1,836低点→1,900分水岭失守→周末地缘缓和反弹”的节奏，今天亚盘强势突破1,920–1,950阻力区，现报 约1,948–1,954美元（24h +3.7%~+4.3%），表现明显强于BTC，属于上升笔延伸+资金向ETH轮动的修复阶段，但FOMC（7/29-30）前仍按“反弹”而非“反转”处理。
一、实时盘面（截至午间12:30）
现价：≈ 1,950 美元，24h +3.7%~+4.3%，日内高 1,954–1,967、低 1,885–1,900 一带
结构：自1,836低点反弹，已实体突破1,920–1,950前阻区；小时MACD零轴上金叉放量，日线MACD零轴下绿柱急剧萎缩、快慢线粘合，中期空头压制减弱但未转多。
情绪：恐慌贪婪 26–30（恐惧边缘，未过热）；ETH/BTC比价回升至0.0298–0.0300附近，资金从BTC向ETH轮动迹象明确。
资金：7/24 ETH ETF单日净流出7,062万（结束5连入），但周度仍净流入1.039亿、月度累计流入3.38亿，现货ETF偏好阶段性偏向ETH；链上质押率33.6%新高、退出队列归零，抛压被结构性压缩。
二、今日核心驱动
地缘降温（直接催化）：特朗普暂停对伊扩大打击+霍尔木兹谈判进展→布油从100+跌回86–92→通胀/加息叙事缓和，10年美债4.66%高位边际回落，无息资产机会成本下降，ETH高β属性弹性释放。
ETH独立利好：质押锁仓创纪录（250万ETH排队进场）+ CLARITY/GENIUS法案参议院冲刺预期，ETH供给端+监管端双托底，弹性强于BTC。
BTC带节奏但未压制：BTC收复65,200，ETH/BTC回升说明不是纯跟涨，有自身买盘；但FOMC前机构仍防御，反弹高度受限于宏观悬剑。
技术过热：1小时指标钝化、4h靠近超买，1,950–1,967是近期前高压力区，直接追多盈亏比差。
三、今日关键价位（沿用前几日框架上移）
上方阻力：1,960–1,967（近期前高压力区）→ 1,980–2,000（整数关+多空转换带，站上才中期修复）→ 2,030–2,050（前密集成交区）
短线支撑：1,920–1,950（刚突破的阻力转支撑，回踩不破则结构健康）→ 1,900–1,915（小时均线共振+整数关）→ 1,885–1,890（昨夜低点/强支撑）
多空分水岭：1,920 小时线收盘——站稳偏上升笔攻1,960；有效跌破1,900则反弹结构受损看1,885。
四、今日（日间+晚间）思路
主基调：1,950上方不追多，等回踩1,920–1,940企稳低多；1,960–1,967无量短空。FOMC前仓位≤10%、杠杆减半。
回踩 1,920–1,940 缩量企稳、15min收下影→轻仓试多（≤8%），止损1,908下，目标1,960 / 1,980。
反抽 1,960–1,967 缩量长上影→小仓短空（≤5%），止损1,978，目标1,940 / 1,920。
放量1h站上 1,980→右侧看2,000–2,030；放量破 1,900→不接飞刀，等1,885 / 1,850承接。
今晚盯：美股开盘纳指方向、布油是否再冲90、10年美债能否落回4.60下，三者决定1,920是真支撑还是假突破。
基于公开行情与多源研报整理，仅供参考，不构成投资建议；ETH波动大于BTC，严控止损。
今晚ETH就盯一条线：1,920小时线能否收住，配合ETH/BTC能否稳0.030、BTC 65,200分水岭判断上升笔延续性。$ETH ETH's current bearish logic: after rebounding around 1966 over the weekend, bullish volume clearly weakens, making it hard to sustain the rise without volume; Combined with dense resistance above 1960-1970, short-term overbought means increase pressure to revert to the mean. On-chain data shows that if it falls below 1818, the liquidation strength of mainstream CEXs long positions will reach $720 million, potentially opening up the lower limits.
· Entry reference: Short on rallies around 1960-1970
· Stop-loss reference: above 1982-1988 (conservative above 1975)
· Take-profit reference: look at 1900, 1860-1850, break out at 1820-1800, aggressive move can reach 1650Changxin is aiming for a valuation of 3 trillion to 3.3 trillion yuan. I can only say: watching the show is fine, but be cautious about taking the baton.
Hynix's Q1 net profit is about 8 times that of Changxin, yet its market cap is less than double; Changxin's profit is roughly 13.6% of Hynix's, but its valuation has already exceeded a 30x PE. This is not just a bit expensive; it's a clear valuation inversion.
More importantly, the gap is not just in profits.
Changxin has crossed the mainstream DRAM mass production threshold, but its main products are still concentrated in DDR4, DDR5, and LPDDR; Hynix has already taken the lead in HBM3E and is pushing forward with HBM4 mass production and customer adoption. Technology, orders, certifications, packaging capabilities, and moat are not even in the same league.
So the question is straightforward:
Profit is 8 times different, technology is far behind, moat is much weaker, so why is the market cap less than double?
Of course, a small float, capital driving, and the Chinese characteristic valuation system could indeed continue to push it higher, even to more exaggerated levels.
But that looks more like a chip game, not profit realization.
If you buy in at 3 trillion, rising to 5 trillion is a story; falling back to 1 trillion means nearly a two-thirds drop.
For cyclical stocks, the biggest danger is not that they can't rise, but that one day the market suddenly stops telling stories and re-prices based on performance and cash flow.
Whether it can rise and whether it should be bought are two different things.
Focus on logic, not opinions.
Do you think Changxin is worth 3 trillion, or has it already overdrawn many years of future growth? #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 ❓ Why is it that the S&P has barely fallen, yet the tech stocks in your holdings may have dropped significantly? Because right now, the US stock market isn't a broad rally, but rather capital is reselecting investors within tech stocks. As of 12:27 Beijing time on July 27, 2026, US stocks were still closed for the weekend. The latest effective closing data was: Stock's daily closing price change: SPY $738.93 +0.10%, QQQ $684.23 -1.12%, DIA $518.76 +0.48%, AAPL333.02 USD +3.53%, NVDA206.84 USD -0.92%, MSFT381.70 USD +0.03% META595.19 USD -1.80%, TSLA313.03 USD -2.08% 🍎 Apple won, but the tech sector did not. Apple closed at $333.02, just about 0.59% away from the 52-week high of $334.99. But QQQ fell 1.12%, while Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla all weakened. This shows that funds are not withdrawing from US stocks, but are instead betting more heavily on a few strong companies. The index is still trading sideways, and individual stocks have already started to stratify: Apple represents strong capital grouping, Microsoft represents temporary sideways trading, Nvidia and Meta represent absorption at high levels, Tesla continues to release volatility risks 🔍. What to watch for next trading day? First, can Apple break through $335? If other tech stocks follow the rally after the breakout, it will be considered a sector recovery. Second, can QQQ reclaim $690? It won't hold backThis is going to be a very interesting week for $BTC.
Over the past 12 months, eight of the last nine FOMC meetings have been followed by a relatively large sell-off.
Across those eight flushes, $BTC declined roughly 10% on average over the following week.
During last month’s meeting, price was trading in almost exactly the same region as it is today.
$BTC traded around $66K, then dropped roughly 12% to $58K, setting new cycle lows.
The one exception was the previous meeting in May, when $BTC produced the opposite reaction and rallied roughly 5%.
So another bearish reaction is not necessarily guaranteed. We have already seen this pattern fail once during the current bear market.
But 8 out of 9 is still not a statistic I am interested in betting against.
If the same reaction plays out again, we’re likely to see a key test of the range lows.
I’m personally watching whether $61K can hold as support.
That level is the gatekeeper between another pullback inside the current range and a potential flush to new lows.
$BTC #DailyOrbit $ETH 's relative move today warrants a closer look. At roughly three times BTC's 24-hour gain, with the Iran strike pause pulling risk appetite back into markets, the outperformance looks positioning-driven rather than narrative-driven. Rotation into ETH ahead of broader alt momentum is a known pattern; whether this is that setup or just a one-session catch-up is still unclear.
The macro backdrop adds friction. Jobless claims dropping gives the Fed less reason to move quickly on cuts, keeping real rates elevated and limiting the liquidity tailwind crypto needs to sustain a rally. Google and Tesla earnings this week matter more than most traders expect; a growth miss there could reprice the whole risk-on move. I'd want more confirmation before treating this bounce as structural.
Just my read, not advice.
#DailyOrbit Forma Chain关停回迁以太坊$ETH ，这四类赛道币种的机会来了
Forma Chain 作为依托 Celestia + Astria 搭建的模块化应用链宣布停运，核心资产全部回迁以太坊，核心事件会分层影响模块化赛道、NFT赛道、新兴应用链相关代币，我们按照影响强弱划分：
一、直接承压：中小型模块化DA层 & 依附型应用链代币
1. Celestia 系中小依附型应用链代币
Celestia曾经靠「模块化数据可用层」叙事催生了一大批跟风搭建的L3应用链，Forma 的倒闭会让市场重新质疑：单纯蹭Celestia架构、没有真实生态的小应用链到底有没有长期价值。
那些仅依托Celestia开发、以NFT、艺术为单一业务的冷门小众L3代币，会遭遇资金避险出逃，市场会担心它们成为下一个关停回迁的项目。
2. Astria 生态原生代币
Forma 是Astria生态比较有代表性的落地案例，项目直接终止运营，会削弱Astria在应用链扩容赛道的叙事说服力，短期压制其代币的炒作热度，资本会暂缓对Astria生态新项目的投流。
二、间接走弱：主打NFT叙事的独立小众公链币
很多冷门侧链、自建L2公链，当初的核心卖点就是「NFT铸造手续费更低」，用来抢夺以太坊的艺术品NFT用户。
现在Forma把全套NFT资产迁回以太坊，会让用户形成共识：小众链的NFT随时会因为公链倒闭彻底失去流动性。
因此下面两类币会持续承压：
- 主打NFT交易、数字藏品赛道的非主流独立公链代币
- 主打低成本mint NFT，但是日活低迷、团队现金流薄弱的二层网络代币
这类币种会流失NFT项目方资源，新项目不会再选择在冷门链发行藏品。
三、迎来利好：以太坊生态核心赛道币种
资金避险抱团会向以太坊原生资产倾斜：
1. 以太坊$ETH
更多小链项目遇到生存危机后的最优解就是回迁以太坊，持续加固以太坊作为资产“最终归宿”的地位，长期夯实以太坊的价值底座。
2. 以太坊NFT基础设施代币
OpenSea相关生态代币、以太坊NFT确权、版税工具类代币会受益，更多NFT藏品迁移过来之后，链上交易、确权需求会上涨。
3. 以太坊官方L2龙头代币
用户放弃冷门模块化L3之后，扩容需求会集中涌向成熟的以太坊二层网络，头部L2代币会分得更多生态流量。
四、估值降温：蹭模块化概念的空气山寨币
前一轮牛市批量诞生的、只包装「模块化、分片、应用链」概念，没有实际产品、没有NFT/DeFi真实用户的山寨代币，会迎来估值挤泡沫。
投资人会更加谨慎区分：真正做底层模块化基建的项目，和单纯套壳蹭热点发币收割的项目，这类空气币会持续被市场抛弃。
补充客观总结
这次事件并不会彻底击垮整个模块化赛道，只会淘汰掉没有现金流、依靠叙事续命的中小型应用链。未来模块化赛道资源只会集中向 Celestia 这类头部底层基建，以及以太坊体系聚拢，行业两极分化会越来越明显。
⚠️风险提示：以上内容仅为行业客观分析，不构成任何买入、卖出的投资建议，请勿参与虚拟货币相关交易炒作。Today's Core Judgment: Today is Monday, and US stocks will resume trading tonight. There is no new spot closing data for SPCX; the latest price remains at $115.07 on July 24; the real new risk comes from the Middle East shipping situation. The U.S. and Iran have paused their attacks for two consecutive days, leaving room for negotiations, but Hormuz's traffic remains at a three-week low, and alternative export routes in the Red Sea are also under threat. This creates a contradictory environment: diplomatic ceasefire expectations favor a rebound in risk assets, but actual shipping and energy supplies have yet to recover, and any breakdown in negotiations could cause sharp volatility again in oil prices, tech stocks, SPCX, and cryptocurrencies. ⸻ I. Key News 1. SPCX: Market enters the waiting phase before earnings reports and unlocks. Confirmed facts $SPCX closed at $115.07 in the most recent trading day, with an intraday range of $110.25–$118.10. It is still about 14.8% below the issue price of $135, and has drawn nearly half from its post-listing high. Approximately 911.5 million shares will gradually gain trading qualifications, but obtaining sale qualifications does not mean the relevant shareholders will immediately reduce their holdings. SpaceX is expected to announce its first quarterly results after listing on August 4; Subsequently, about 911.5 million shares may qualify for trading. At recent prices, this batch of potential unlocked shares is worth over 1,000On July 24, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice numbered 2026 No. 21, effective that day. Assets placed in offshore trusts by Chinese people will now be subject to tax. Over the past twenty years, placing assets in a Cayman or BVI family trust has been a standard move for Chinese tycoons: putting equity in, no tax on appreciation, no tax on dividends, and no tax on passing on to children. China's announcement on offshore trust personal income tax has broken the unspoken rules of this wealthy circle. The rules themselves are not complicated, mainly taxed at three times: Establishment: At the moment the property is placed in the trust, 20% is paid at the market price minus the cost—at this time, the property hasn't been sold, the money hasn't arrived, and taxes must be paid first. Sustainability: From then on, the trust earns annually, regardless of whether it is distributed to the settlor, is paid at 20% annually. Management and attorney fees cannot be deducted, and losses cannot be offset. Termination: When the trust is terminated, the settlor changes nationality, or passes away, a final liquidation is conducted based on the market value at that time. Looking at the tax rate alone, twenty percent is considered moderate. In the United States, trusts pay up to 37%, while in Japan, the tax on trust beneficiary rights is as high as 55%. The weight of this announcement does not lie in the tax rate; it comes in two places: first, the timing of tax collection is moved forward before the value is realized. Second, old debts need to be restored—those deposited after 2023 will be taxed in retroactive installments; money earned by the trust before 2025 will be bundled and paid within ninety days. Late fees will not be charged now, and fees will be calculated separately if overdue. There is now a lot of information circulating online about wealthy individuals paying taxes, so we will follow the State Taxation Administration's guidelinesHehe 😁, thanks to the staff for their recognition—the topic direction was inspired by the staff's templates, and while farming data, I noticed something: the queue exit queue went from 2.67 million ETH backlog straight to zero. This twist was too extreme. At the time, I felt something was off, so I dug down. At the entry point, nearly 2.5 million coins were lined up. So many were coming in and out, which was very unusual.
While writing, I thought of making the technically technical thing of "validator queues" understandable to everyone. Finally, he used the comparison of "a network no one goes to vs. a threshold many people want to enter," translating the data into emotions. Vitalik's proposal and ETF inflows were added later, to make the logic more complete—no one exited, queued up to enter, institutions were buying, money was shrinking, and all directions pointed to the same conclusion.
What I most want to say is actually one thing: on-chain behavior reveals true expectations earlier than candlesticks. Exiting to zero doesn't mean no one wants to sell; it just means long-term funds feel it's not worth selling now. Many people's first reaction when seeing Ondo Chain is: Will there be an airdrop? Can ONDO be staking? Can ordinary users run nodes? However, as of July 2026, the Ondo Chain mainnet has not officially launched, and specific applications, parameters, and participation rules may still be adjusted. At this stage, what is more suitable for discussion is not specific operations, but what entry points it might provide in the future, and what risks each entry point carries. 1. What is Ondo Chain's positioning? Ondo Chain is a public PoS Layer 1 aimed at institutional-level RWA. It is not simply copying meme, NFT, and blockchain game ecosystems on ordinary public blockchains, but aims to provide a more dedicated environment for issuance, trading, collateralization, and settlement of tokenized stocks, US Treasuries, funds, and other real financial assets. It plans to adopt a "network open, validators permissioned" model. In principle, regular users and developers can use the web or deploy applications, but validators are expected to be mainly involved by organizations that meet requirements and are subject to ongoing supervision. This means that a more realistic entry point for ordinary users to participate is through the network and applications, rather than directly running validator nodes. The official plan also includes price data, proof of reserves, cross-chain communication, and compliance tools. Simply put, Ondo Chain aims to solve not just "issuing assets as tokens," but also whether the price is trustworthy, whether the asset is sufficient, whether the issuer can set holding and transfer qualifications at the contract layer, and more75% believe a ceasefire can be achieved before the end of the month; I bet they are completely wrong
Guys, when I woke up this morning, the whole market felt like a different world.
The US military bombed Iran for 13 consecutive nights, but suddenly stopped last Friday. Then Iran immediately made its statement: 'You stop, so shall we.' For two consecutive nights, no one fired.
And then?
Brent crude oil plunged sharply at the open, dropping more than 7% within minutes and briefly dropping below $90. It is now hovering around $91. WTI crude fell below $84.
Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher. Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000. Gold rose nearly 1%.
The market forecasted a figure: the probability that the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire agreement before August 31—75%.
75%。 Three-quarters of people believe this can happen.
I just want to ask: Did you forget that this script was just performed last month?
In June this year, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, the US and Iran just signed a memorandum of understanding containing 14 articles. And then? On July 8, Trump announced the end of the ceasefire and the resumption of bombing. 14 clauses, tear them apart at will.
Now, once again, there's a pause in bombing, and another 'leave room for diplomatic negotiations.' You believe it?
Iran itself has said—"We are skeptical of the US intentions." Even the people involved didn't believe it, and you bet 75% on the prediction market?
Let me tell you why this 75% is an illusion.
First, Trump's "pause" was never a "stop." The original words of the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Waltz, were to "pause military strikes." What does 'pause' mean? You can keep fighting whenever you want. Even the commander of U.S. Central Command himself admitted that the bombing operations "have reached the limit of effectiveness." Calling a timeout when you can't keep up is a completely different matter from wanting to ceasefire.
Second, traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered at all. Data shows that fewer than 10 bulk commodity ships pass through the strait daily over the weekend. The shipowners dared not move. Oil prices have fallen, but has supply risk disappeared? No.
Third, the Houthi forces in Yemen are still fighting. Over the weekend, Saudi Aramco facilities in the Red Sea were struck. This conflict has long been no longer just a matter between the US and Iran; the entire Middle East has been drawn into it.
So my judgment is: the probability of a formal ceasefire agreement reached before the end of August is far below 75%.
Be optimistic, 30%. To be pessimistic, 10%.
The current market rebound is purely a recovery in sentiment, not a fundamental reversal. Oil prices fell for several days, inflation concerns temporarily eased, and risk assets caught their breath. However, U.S. Treasury yields remain at a high of 4.63%. The Federal Reserve is scheduled for a meeting on Thursday. The high interest rate environment hasn't changed at all.
Bitcoin has reached 65,000, so what next?
This position is a psychological checkpoint and a key technical battle zone. The bulls are holding their ground, the bears are waiting. If something else happens in the Middle East—Trump tweets again, and Iran makes another harsh statement—65,000 could become the ceiling at any time.
Guys, I've seen through this market.
Good news arrived, and it rose for a day. Bad news arrived, and the price fell for three days.
Oil prices fell, BTC rose. Oil prices rose, BTC fell.
You're always chasing, always taking over, always waiting for a breakthrough.
Don't be fooled by the 75% figure. Don't be fooled by the 65,000 rebound.
The only certainty in this market is that nothing is certain.
Hold your cash properly. Position control. Let the bullets fly a little longer.
Wait until the day of a true ceasefire—if it really does—before you can enter the arena.
$BTC $BZ $CL
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower 🇰🇷 Korea got hit with Friday’s chip selloff today.
KOSPI opened -4%+ after the market was closed during the global semi rout. $Samsung and $SK Hynix both dropped over 5% intraday and sentiment cooled off fast.
But Korea isn’t driving AI anymore. The next real signal comes from US Big Tech earnings. I’m watching Microsoft and Google specifically.
It’s not about profits now. It’s about AI CapEx. If MSFT, GOOGL, and Meta keep pouring into data centers and buying GPUs + HBM, then this chip drawdown is just a healthy correction in a bull. Sentiment recovers.
If they slow spending or AI growth misses, semis get another leg down on valuations.
📉 Short term: cautiously bearish. 2 years of huge gains + geopolitical noise + rate pressure = more downside tests during earnings.
🚀 Long term: still very bullish on AI. The war is for compute. As long as data centers keep being built, demand for GPUs, HBM, and advanced packaging isn’t going away. I’m treating this as a reset, not the end of the AI rally.
Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH #DailyOrbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO $SOL is the sol that trapped retail investors the most severely in this round. What will the subsequent trend be?
SOL fell from $295.83 in 2025 all the way down to $60.13 in June this year, with a maximum drawdown of nearly 80%. This round definitely trapped a lot of retail investors. But the most deceptive thing about SOL is here: when it rises, it seems to have no ceiling, and when it falls, it looks bottomless.
If you buy a coin and can't even understand its trend, why bother buying it? Many people still fantasize about it rising to 500 or even 1000. You might as well first look at the market cap. This coin has been continuously issued; the market cap at the high point is the same as a few years ago. Whether it can return to the highest point in the next bull market is also a question. So why did it rise so sharply this round? One reason is the ETF approval, and the other, of course, is hype.
So what will the subsequent trend look like?
Undoubtedly, the big trend will still have another big drop. The bear market is not over yet, and the three big downward waves are not finished.
However, the long liquidation volume within 5% below the current price is about $4.25 million, which is about 4.6 times the short volume above, mainly concentrated between $71.4 and $73.3. This means SOL could completely first squeeze out a round of shorts upward, then come back to test the longs; or it might not give a rebound and directly clear the longs below.
So where is the big bottom for SOL?
In the last round, SOL fell from $259.90 to $8, with a maximum drawdown of 96.9%. But that round was compounded by the FTX collapse, so it can't be mechanically copied. More importantly, SOL's history is still very short; strictly speaking, it only has one complete bull and bear cycle, far fewer samples than BTC or ETH. This round fell from $295.83 to $60.13, already a 79.7% drawdown. So $60 itself qualifies as the first big bottom, rather than needing to be halved again to be called a bear market.
If BTC has one last deleveraging round in Q4, I would place SOL's secondary bottom observation zone between $45 and $60, with special attention around $50. $30 to $40 can only be considered an extreme scenario under systemic risk and should not be regarded as a price that will inevitably be reached for bottom fishing.
So where are the opportunities for ordinary people?
Many retail investors said they would hold long-term at $200, but when it dropped to $60, they found they didn't have a penny left. So the most important thing now is not to guess the bottom every day, but to preserve your principal, keep your patience, and keep the qualification to dare to act during the next market panic.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision early Thursday morning — tonight could be more exciting than expected, as this week's biggest macro event is coming.
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on July 30 (Thursday), the Fed will release its July rate decision, followed by a press conference with the new chair, Waller. Originally, everyone thought the Fed would definitely hold steady, but in just one week, the script has completely changed.
A week ago, the market priced only a 13% chance of a rate hike in July. Now, CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike has surged to 36%-38%. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists all expect no change.
Economists are betting on no change, but traders are aggressively hedging for a rate hike — such a split is extremely rare. PGIM's chief economist even described this meeting as almost a 50-50 split. Why the sudden reversal in expectations? Three fires are burning simultaneously:
① Brent crude oil has broken through $100/barrel — the ongoing Iran conflict is pushing energy prices higher, sharply increasing inflation rebound risks. Oil prices have risen about 25% since the Fed's June meeting.
② The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged to 4.69%-4.7%, and the 2-year Treasury yield has already exceeded the Fed's 3.75% rate cap, indicating the bond market is pricing in a rate hike in advance.
③ New tariffs have been implemented — last Friday, the US imposed new tariffs of 10%-12.5% on 60 trading partners, with a legal basis that is harder to challenge.
These three factors combined have pushed market anxiety about inflation to the max.
What does this mean for the crypto market?
The logic chain is clear:
Rising oil prices → inflation expectations rebound → market bets the Fed won’t ease → US Treasury yields rise → US dollar strengthens → global liquidity tightens → risk assets (including Bitcoin) come under pressure.
If there is an unexpected 25 basis point hike early Thursday — although the probability is less than 40% — if it happens, global risk assets could face a sharp adjustment.
If rates hold steady but Waller signals a hawkish stance — for example, hinting at a September hike — the market will also struggle. The market has already fully priced in a 25 basis point hike in September.
The most troublesome part is that after taking office, Waller has clearly abandoned forward guidance, emphasizing that each meeting is a "real-time" decision. This means he is unlikely to give clear signals tonight, and the market will have to read between the lines.
No matter the outcome tonight, volatility will be high. The sustainability of oil prices, the direction of the Middle East situation, and Waller’s attitude toward inflation are the core variables for the coming months.Changxin opened with a surge of over 500%, experiencing volatile fluctuations, with its market value peaking at 3.4 trillion yuan, then falling back to 2.6 trillion before rebounding, and it still tops the A-share market.
South Korea's SK Hynix surged then fell, erasing its opening gain of over 2%, but this is not simply a case of "China's storage beating Korea's storage," rather it is a direct clash between two pricing systems.
One prices based on the narrative of "domestic substitution + scarcity," the other prices based on "global cyclical profitability."
1/ The valuation gap is very clear
Changxin: 3.4 trillion yuan market value, with the issue price corresponding to a static PE of about 300 times; even using the annualized profit from the first half of this year’s surge (H1 net profit about 55 billion yuan), it is still nearly 30 times.
SK Hynix: about 16 times PE, with approximately 30% global DRAM market share.
Changxin holds the fourth largest global DRAM share (about 4–5%), yet its market value was once more than twice that of SK Hynix, which holds the second largest share. This cannot be explained by fundamentals; it is the A-share scarcity premium plus T+1 liquidity squeeze.
2/ The "bloodletting theory" is just surface logic
Funds selling other storage stocks to chase the leader put pressure on SK Hynix and Samsung. But this is a one-time liquidity event, not a trend. A giant IPO’s first day high open and subsequent pullback is almost a fixed script—don’t treat the opening price as a valuation anchor.
3/ The real signal lies beneath the surface
Changxin’s revenue in the first half was 110–120 billion yuan, net profit 50–57 billion yuan. This is the first time a domestically produced DRAM leader with real profits has entered the capital market. The story of China’s storage self-sufficiency now has a tradable target. The supply landscape is changing—this is the long-term variable that should keep SK Hynix awake at night.
4/ SK Hynix’s decline is half emotion, half warning
Half is "bloodletting" panic, half is a reminder: if Changxin continues to expand production, the risk of DRAM oversupply in the second half of the cycle will increase. Morgan Stanley in July shifted the storage pricing anchor from "price elasticity" to "profit sustainability"—Changxin’s capacity is precisely the new variable in this equation.
5/ Crypto players entered early
On Hyperliquid, CXMT perpetual futures have been steady at $6–7 (about 43 yuan / 2.88 trillion yuan market value) for two weeks pre-market, with the largest short continuously increasing positions to the tens of millions of dollars. The on-chain market has long been signaling: this premium is unsustainable. Today’s 440% rise in the A-share market is, to some extent, catching up to and then overextending this expectation.
Conclusion
A 3 trillion yuan market value is the peak of sentiment, not a valuation anchor. What is worth remembering is not how much Changxin rose today, but that China finally has a storage leader that can go public and truly make profits. Prices will return to normal, but the change in the landscape will not.Changxin is another SpaceX opportunity. Now most people know that SpaceX has a high FDV and low circulation supply, so it has been steadily declining from 200 to 113.
So what about Changxin?
- High FDV: currently valued at 49, 3.3 trillion RMB
- Low circulation: currently almost 80% of circulation is from new issuance, 6.73%
And that's it, the rest is the unlock after 6 months.
So the key point is from now until the unlock in 6 months. It was difficult to trade before, but now with Hyper, institutional investors have a strong "hedging demand".
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