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Bitcoin has returned to $65,000, but what truly determines the market may not be the market that has finally caught its breath these past two days. With the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran, international oil prices fell about 5% in a single day, risk aversion cooled, and Bitcoin climbed back above $65,000, clearly reviving market risk appetite. To put it bluntly, this rally is mostly due to the macro environment helping the market, rather than the crypto market suddenly receiving some super positive news.
However, compared to how much it rose today, I'm more concerned about another issue in the U.S.—the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
With less than two weeks left until the U.S. Congressional summer recess, this may be the last window for the bill to pass this year. If they miss this and later encounter political agendas like midterm elections, the chances of success this year will drop significantly. The biggest disagreement now is no longer about whether to regulate crypto, but about ethical clauses such as conflicts of interest among government officials, with all sides still locked in a tug-of-war.
I think this is actually a positive sign. A few years ago, the market debated whether cryptocurrencies should exist; The current discussion is "how to regulate it." The direction has changed. As long as the regulatory framework is finally implemented, traditional institutions like banks and funds will feel more confident entering the market, which is a long-term positive for the entire industry.
In the short term, Bitcoin will continue to be affected by macroeconomic factors such as oil prices and the Federal Reserve; But in the long run, what truly determines the industry's ceiling is whether regulation is clear.
If the Clarity Act is ultimately postponed until next year, do you think the market will take the opportunity to adjust, or will you think it's just a matter of time before the bull market continues? Feel free to share your thoughts.Prices have fallen below the 5-day moving average at 0.0101u and the 20-day moving average at 0.0103u, with all short-term moving averages shifting from support to strong resistance; the medium- to long-term 200-day moving average at 0.0091U serves as key support below. Contract funds: Short-term long contracts accumulated in the 0.0099U-0.0105u range. After the price broke below the 0.0100u support, long orders stopped losses. The total 24-hour long liquidation across the network exceeded 190,000 USD, and the funding rate shifted from positive to bearish. On-chain Tokens: Early private equity holdings split small tokens and transferred them to exchanges to take profits, while cold wallet hoarding completely stopped; Spot inventories on exchanges continue to rise, long-term funds are cautious and exiting, with no new funds supporting the market. 1. Monthly token unlock expectations are priced in advance, with selling pressure continuously suppressing (core trigger). On August 9, community private placement shares will be unlocked, with a total of 3.75 million OFC flowing into circulation. The market anticipates early investor cashing after unlocking; Short-term bottom-fishing funds actively took profits to avoid subsequent selling pressure, causing incremental funds to cut off inflows and triggering price pullbacks. 2. World Cup Theme Heat Completely Fades, No New Narrative Support Previously, the rise was entirely driven by football tournament traffic, but after the tournament cycle ended, daily active users declined, with no new tournaments or collaborations taking effect; The token is only used for fan membership benefits, with no high-frequency on-chain consumption scenarios, and lacks long-term buying support. 3. Ecosystem implementation progress falls short of market expectations, cooperation functions limited. Polymarket predicts that due to European regulatory policies, the market linkage feature cannot be widely opened, resulting in expected token trading🚨 $BTC Money Flow Index Points to a Familiar Cycle—But That Doesn't Necessarily Mean the Bull Market Is Over.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is once again forming a pattern that closely resembles the major correction phases seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. In each of those cycles, the market followed a similar sequence: a euphoric top, a sharp selloff, a relief rally that restored optimism, another deeper liquidity flush, and finally an extended accumulation phase before the next major uptrend.
This cycle stands out because the MFI has already entered levels historically associated with bear markets, yet Bitcoin continues to trade at much higher price levels than in previous cycles. That divergence may suggest capital is rotating within the market rather than leaving it entirely. Long-term holders appear to be absorbing supply while leveraged and speculative positions continue to unwind.
If history remains a useful guide, another period of volatility and consolidation could still lie ahead before the market establishes a lasting bottom. Major bear markets rarely end after a single sharp decline—they typically conclude through months of reduced volatility, fading speculation, and steady accumulation as weaker participants exit and larger investors quietly build positions.
For traders, this is a market that rewards discipline over emotion. Chasing every short-term bounce can be costly, while waiting for confirmed trend shifts often provides better opportunities. For long-term investors, periods like these have historically laid the groundwork for the next major expansion.
History doesn't repeat exactly, but Bitcoin's market cycles have consistently shown similar characteristics. The greatest opportunities often emerge when liquidity dries up, sentiment reaches extreme pessimism, and most participants believe the trend is finished.
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch 1. Overall judgment: The current market has shifted from a weekend of shrinking volume to recovery, with ETH leading the rally, BTC following, and SOL catching up with high beta. BTC rose about 1.42% in the past 24 hours, ETH rose about 4.43%, and SOL rose about 2.06%; AKE once rose from 0.002810 to 0.006900, then quickly pulled back, with a 24-hour gain still close to 29%. This round of rally cannot be simply understood as four products entering a healthy trend simultaneously. ETH is the most complete combination of price, trading volume, and open interest; When BTC and SOL rise, open interest actually drops significantly, resembling short covering and leveraged exits; AKE, on the other hand, combines extreme volume expansion, two-way liquidations up and down, and a sharp drop in open interest, making its volatility completely different from the previous three products. Binance's market overview shows the total crypto market capitalization is about $2.23 trillion, up 1.43% from the previous cycle; Turnover was about $49.5 billion, up 28.11%; The Fear and Greed Index stands at 39, still in the fear zone. Volume and price improved compared to the weekend, but market sentiment has not entered a phase of consistent optimism, and rally funds have yet to fully spread. There has been a short-term easing at the macro level. After the U.S. paused its military strikes on Iran, the US dollar index returned to around 101.21, Brent crude fell about 4.2% to $92.74, and Asian stock markets, U.S. stock index futures, and bonds all found support. However, this is only a temporary ceasefire, and Red Sea oil and gas facilities still face attack risks, so the geopolitical premium has not completely disappeared. Over the weekend, the market continued to rise, reaching a high near 65,700. Monday afternoon stretches are often hard to sustain. At the same time, multiple top divergences appeared at the 15-minute level. A correction is currently occurring to repair the situation. However, the price movement is slow, suggesting there is still room for further decline. Below is an important watershed, watch around the 64,200 level. If it breaks down, it is believed that the pushing wave will break down. So just control the subsequent rebound
Controlled within the 652-655 range.
Below the 64,500-64,200 range, see a breakout to see 633# Changxin Technology listed, adding variables to global storage competition #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon hold the AI narrative? $BTC $MUU MUUSDT | Current price 958.49, increase +1.57%
Storage concept stocks continued their strong rebound. Resistance above is 986, support below is 930, and the sector's momentum remains strong. #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落 ⚠️ $XAG LONG LIQUIDATIONS HIT THE MARKET! ⚠️
A $5.92K long liquidation at $59.18 suggests bullish traders were forced to exit as silver (XAG) moved lower. Long liquidations can increase selling pressure in the short term, but they may also remove excess leverage and create opportunities once the market stabilizes. Trade with patience and wait for confirmation.
Spot: $59.18
Support:
$58.80
$58.20
Resistance:
$59.60
$60.00
Next Target (Bearish):
$58.20
Entry Zone (Short):
$59.20–$59.50 (after a rejection)
Stop Loss (SL):
$59.90
Take Profit (TP):
TP1: $58.80
TP2: $58.20
TP3: $57.60
Pro Tip: Don't enter a trade based only on liquidation data. Wait for price confirmation, follow the trend, and always use a stop loss to manage risk.
This is market commentary for educational purposes, not financial advice.
#FOMCRateWatch #OilDropsOnCeasefire #FOMCRateWatch Regulatory uncertainty spreads, market breadth tightens sharply. Only 8 compliant alts resist sector-wide selling.
Regulatory sentiment A/D ratio at 0.33, most small-cap tokens facing panic selling. Only 8 compliant, institutional-friendly tokens hold bullish volume structure. All unregulated niche coins bleed heavily.
The 8 regulatory safe plays:
$LTC, $DOGE, $TRX, $ONDO , $ZEC , $POL , $ARK, $FXS
The 92 high-risk regulatory laggards:
$MEME, $ALT, $NICHE, $DEGEM, $LOWCAP, $ANON, $RARE, $HIDDEN, $NEW, $TREND and dozens of risky tokens.
Regulatory risk market = prioritize compliance and liquidity. These 8 tokens avoid panic downside pressure.$DOGE consolidating near support after the correction.
Demand continues supporting current price action.
EP
0.198–0.205
TP
0.214
0.225
0.238
SL
0.191
Price remains above a key support area despite recent weakness. A reclaim of nearby resistance could trigger expansion toward higher targets.
Let’s go $DOGE
#CXMTMemoryIPO Ethereum ecosystem breadth weakens, Layer2 tokens show selective strength. Only 6 L2 alts maintain strong trend structure. L2 Advance/Decline ratio at 0.22, majority of layer tokens bleeding sideways. Only 6 projects display sustained user growth and on-chain accumulation divergence. The rest lack fundamental and technical support. The 6 high-grade L2 plays: $ARB, $OP, $BASE, $LINEA, $SCROLL, $ZKsync The 94 low-quality L2 laggards: $METIS, $BOBA, $IMX, $RONIN, $SKALE, $CELO, $MOONBEAM, $ASTAR, $Changxin Technology's first day trading volume reached ¥141.187 billion, Hyperliquid "predicted" it half a month ago
Today (7/27), Changxin Technology officially debuted on the STAR Market, opening at ¥49.5 per share, up 471.59%; the intraday high reached ¥55.03, the low fell back to ¥38.11, with a daily amplitude of 195.38%. After intense fluctuations, it closed at ¥49, up 465.82%, with a total market capitalization of ¥3.3 trillion. The total turnover for the day was ¥141.187 billion, with a turnover rate of 66.40%—the freely tradable shares on the first day accounted for only 6.73% of the total 66.88 billion shares outstanding. Achieving over ¥140 billion in turnover with such a small float indicates extremely active trading.
What’s even more interesting is that this result was "rehearsed" half a month ago.
On the eve of the subscription, Trade.xyz deployed a Pre-IPO perpetual contract for Changxin Technology (CXMT) through Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework, with an initial reference price of $5, up to 5x leverage, settled in USDC. After launch, the price steadily rose from $6 to $7.2, peaking at $8.64, implying a market value of about ¥3.5 trillion RMB at one point—roughly the same scale as today’s A-share closing market cap of ¥3.3 trillion and the higher intraday range. Compared to the neutral expectations previously given by domestic institutions (240%-420% increase), the pricing of this on-chain contract was actually closer to today’s real outcome.
The logic behind this is the same as Polymarket: when traditional channels’ thresholds (such as the STAR Market’s ¥500,000 asset requirement and QFII quotas) block most participants, a freely tradable on-chain synthetic contract naturally evolves into a "real money voting" prediction market. In the future, when there is a scarce narrative and overseas capital is blocked by thresholds for large IPOs, checking whether Hyperliquid has pre-listed contracts is itself a free read on market sentiment.
What’s even more worth watching is what happens next: after this contract lists, it will switch to external oracle pricing referencing the A-share spot price. This means—during A-share trading hours, the contract price will closely follow the real stock price; but after A-share market closes, especially on weekends, the on-chain order book remains open 24/7. The price at that time reflects global capital’s immediate expectations for "how the A-share market will move on the next trading day." Essentially, this contract creates a 24-hour non-closing "overnight futures market" for Changxin Technology.
What do you think—after tonight’s A-share market close, will the CXMT contract on Hyperliquid significantly deviate from today’s ¥49 closing price, giving an early signal of tomorrow’s movement?
$CXMT $Changxin Technology BTC 与山寨之间的分化正在加速：SOL 系跑赢，AI/Meme 系持续跑输
原文给出了一个清晰的 Alt/BTC 交易对表现对比：SOL/BTC 过去一段时间上涨 8%，LAB/BTC 上涨 15%，BSB/BTC 上涨 12%；而 BEAT/BTC 下跌 20%，COAI/BTC 下跌 25%，SPACE/BTC 下跌 30%。这组数据直接指向一个结构性问题——资金并非在整体轮动，而是在有选择地集中。
- 原文确认的事实是：以 BTC 为计价基准，SOL 及其生态内项目（LAB、BSB）录得正相对收益，而 AI 概念币（COAI）、Meme 币（TRUMP、SPACE）以及部分虚拟资产类代币（VIRTUAL）录得显著负相对收益。
- 这里没有提供具体时间窗口，但数据形态表明这不是日内波动，而是持续一段时间的相对强弱积累。
从资金行为的角度看，这组数据揭示了三类资金的分化：
- 被动配置资金：仍在 BTC 内部，未明显外溢至山寨，因为大部分山寨/BTC 仍在下跌。
- 真实需求资金：集中在 SOL 链生态，表现为 SOL 本身及生态内基础设施/应用代币的主动买入。这可能对应 SOL 链上活跃度、DeFi 或 NFT 活动的真实增长，而非单纯投机。
- 短期投机资金：在 AI 和 Meme 赛道中快速撤离，表现为这些币种/BTC 的持续走弱。这暗示该赛道的叙事新鲜度下降，或前期获利盘正在退出。
市场结构上，BTC 目前扮演的是"资金锚"——所有山寨的相对强弱都需对比 BTC 来定义。SOL 系的走强意味着它正在挑战 ETH 之外的第二层资产地位，而 AI/Meme 的走弱则表明这些赛道的流动性溢价正在被压缩。
偏多路径：如果 SOL 系继续维持或扩大对 BTC 的相对收益，可能吸引更多真实需求资金从其他山寨回流至 SOL 生态，形成局部正反馈。条件是 SOL 链上基本面（如 TVL、交易量）同步改善，而非仅靠价格驱动。
偏空风险：如果 BTC 自身出现调整，山寨/BTC 的下跌可能加速，因为弱势山寨的杠杆和流动性更脆弱。AI 和 Meme 赛道的持续走弱可能引发连锁清算，进一步压制市场风险偏好。
结论：当前市场不是"山寨季"，而是"精选资产季"。SOL 系的表现可能反映真实需求，而 AI/Meme 的疲软表明投机资金正在撤离。交易者应区分被动持有与主动选择的资金流向，避免在弱势赛道中逆势持仓。
核心风险：SOL 系的相对强势可能已部分定价，若链上数据未能跟上价格，存在回调风险。关注 BTC 价格稳定性和 SOL 链基本面数据。
$BTC $SOL $AI $MEME$COMP is showing renewed bearish momentum after a $1.218K long liquidation at $17.30. EP: 17.15–17.35 | TP: 16.80 / 16.30 / 15.80 | SL: 17.75. The long liquidation indicates bulls are being forced out of their positions, giving sellers the upper hand. Unless price quickly reclaims the liquidation zone, the short-term structure favors further downside with increasing bearish momentum. 📉
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch 📊 $SUI Liquidation Overview
Liquidation Scale
· 1 hour: $409.82
· 4 hours: $200,200
· 12 hours: $290,200
· 24 hours: $337,000
Long and Short Distribution
Period Long Liquidations Short Liquidations Long Ratio
1h $105.95 $303.87 25.9%
4h $196,200 $3,977.45 98.0%
12h $235,000 $55,200 81.0%
24h $274,600 $62,400 81.5%
Long and Short Analysis
Long liquidations overwhelmingly surpass short liquidations across all periods (24h long ratio at 81.5%), indicating a sustained one-sided downtrend. The 4-hour window is the harshest for longs, with a long ratio as high as 98.0%; the 12-hour and 24-hour long ratios remain stable around 81%~81.5%, with almost no resistance from shorts. The ultimate winner: shorts — prices show a violent one-way drop, with longs continuously stop-lossed out.
Time Distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.12% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 59.4% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 86.1% of 24 hours
Liquidations are extremely concentrated in the 12-hour period (over 86%), indicating the main down wave concentrated and basically completed within 12 hours; the increase from 12 to 24 hours is very limited, signaling the late stage of the short squeeze in the last 12 hours. Currently, the market is in the tail end of a short-dominated sustained decline, with long positions mostly cleared out. Short-term, a signal of volume contraction is needed.
One-sentence Summary
$SUI 24-hour long liquidations total $274,600, accounting for 81.5% of total volume, with the main down wave concentrated in 12 hours; shorts decisively win.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narrative entering the "validation season" — from the valuation frenzy of domestic storage, to the Fed's interest rate decision, to the tech giants' earnings tests, the market is re-examining whether the high investment model in AI can deliver high returns.
📈 ChangXin Technology IPO: The 3.66 trillion yuan "Domestic Substitution" Frenzy
On July 27, domestic DRAM leader ChangXin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan/share, opening with a surge of 471.59%, and a market cap briefly surpassing 3.66 trillion yuan, overtaking ICBC as the largest A-share market cap. The IPO raised 66.6 billion yuan, the largest since the STAR Market's inception.
ChangXin Technology is the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, expected to net over 50 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, with global market share rising from 3% to 8%. Nomura Securities set a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of about 7.76 trillion yuan, roughly 30% higher than current SK Hynix.
However, controversy is significant: SK Hynix's quarterly revenue is already more than three times ChangXin's half-year revenue; ChangXin still lags behind US and Korean giants by about two generations and three years technologically. Whether the 3.66 trillion yuan market cap marks the start of a super cycle or a peak moment is sharply debated.
🏛️ Fed Interest Rate Decision Early Thursday: Rate Hike Expectations Stirring
The biggest macro variable this week — the Fed will hold its meeting from July 28 to 29. Economists almost unanimously expect no change (all 104 surveyed economists predict rates will remain unchanged), but interest rate futures market prices in a 36% chance of a hike.
The divergence stems from oil prices — Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, and ongoing US-Iran tensions continue to push up geopolitical risk premiums; combined with tariffs and massive AI spending, inflation pressures are rising again. This is Fed Chair Powell's second meeting in office, and whether it will be the stage for a "surprise rate hike" will be revealed early Thursday.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings: AI "Burning Money" Model Under Test
This week Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon release earnings, with market focus aligned: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue?
Microsoft expects revenue around $87.4 billion; whether Azure growth can maintain about 40% is key. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125-145 billion; Q2 earnings will test if AI investments erode ad profits. Amazon AWS growth is expected to exceed 30% for the first time since 2022, but the market worries about negative free cash flow.
Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with their first-ever negative cash flow — AI is burning faster than expected. These three earnings reports this week will decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core market contradictions today: ChangXin Technology's 3.66 trillion yuan market cap is an extreme valuation of "domestic substitution + AI demand"; the Fed's rate decision is a tense game over "whether inflation will return"; the tech giants' earnings are the ultimate test of "whether AI spending can be profitable." When valuation frenzy, policy shifts, and earnings validation converge in the same week, the AI narrative is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ ETH本轮上涨延续性较强，15分钟级别连续放量突破，最高触及1982一线，目前出现小幅回踩，属于快速拉升后的正常修正，多头结构暂未遭到破坏。
从盘面来看，EMA7、EMA25、EMA60继续保持标准多头排列，价格仍稳稳运行在EMA25上方，均线系统向上发散，市场整体趋势依旧由多头主导。短线虽然出现高位回落，但成交量并未出现明显放大抛压，资金更多是在高位进行换手，而非恐慌离场。
目前重点关注前高压力，若后续放量突破，将有机会进一步冲击2000整数关口，突破失败，看1950-1955附近支撑，只要回踩不跌破EMA25，多头节奏仍有望继续延续。
不要高位追涨，等回踩找低吸机会，顺势跟随主趋势，盈亏比会更加合理。
📈 伏杀对象：偏多
🚗 伏杀据点：1945-1955
🙂↕️ 掉头回家：1920
🎯 伏杀目标：1985-2000
👀 突破上看：2015-2035
$ETH U.S. crypto regulation has officially entered its final countdown.
On July 22, 2026, Senate Republicans released a new draft of the CLARITY Act, integrating the versions from the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee, and, for the first time, adding crypto ethics provisions for senior government officials.
Key Timeline:
July 17, 2025
The U.S. House of Representatives passed the CLARITY Act with 294 votes in favor and 134 against.
January 29, 2026
The Senate Agriculture Committee is advancing relevant versions of digital commodity regulation, focusing on expanding the CFTC's regulatory authority over the digital commodity spot market.
May 14, 2026
The Senate Banking Committee passed its version of the Market Structure Act with 15 votes in favor and 9 against.
July 22, 2026
Senate Republicans released the new draft after the merger, with main contents including:
• Clarifying regulatory boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC
• Establishing a federal registration system for exchanges, brokers, and custodians
• Strengthen anti-money laundering, customer identification, and asset isolation requirements
• Clarify that tokenized securities are still subject to securities laws
• Provides protection for some non-managed developers
• Inclusion of senior officials' crypto ethics clauses for the first time
The morality clause proposes to restrict the issuance or sponsorship of digital assets for profit, with these restrictions expected to last until January 20, 2029.
However, officials can still hold and invest in crypto assets, and since enforcement is mainly handled by the Department of Justice, Democrats believe there are obvious loopholes in the provisions.
August 3 to August 7, 2026
This is currently the most critical potential voting window. The Senate may initiate a procedural vote this week, but the official date has not yet been set, and advancing the bill usually requires at least 60 votes in favor.
Current Status:
❌ It has not yet passed the full Senate bill
❌ It has not yet become U.S. law
❌ August 3 is not the confirmed voting day
If it ultimately passes, the biggest change in the U.S. crypto industry will not be an immediate rise in coin prices, but a formal shift from "regulation relies on enforcement" to "regulation with rules."
The real long-term beneficiaries may be compliant exchanges, custodians, RWAs, stablecoin payments, and crypto projects capable of accepting institutional funds. $BTC $ETH $SOL This Wednesday's major milestone: the market turning point has arrived
This week is the most intense trading window for macro information recently—the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and initial jobless claims, all of which are concentrated within 30 hours. High density means high volatility, with both opportunities and risks.
Node 1: July 30, 02:00 Federal Reserve interest rate decision
The market generally expects rates to hold steady, but a 36.3% probability of a rate hike means the market remains wary of a sudden shift in Walsh. The key suspense is: GDP and PCE will be released less than 24 hours after the decision—is the Fed laying the groundwork for the data in advance, or is it waiting for the data to begin? This sets the tone for this week's direction.
Node 2: July 30, 20:30 Q2 GDP + June PCE + Initial Request
With three layers of data combined, oil prices have already surpassed $100. If GDP confirms economic resilience and PCE exceeds expectations again, it is only a matter of time before rate hikes shift from an "option" to an "action." The destructive power of this combination should not be underestimated.
Node 3: The probability of Clarity bill passing within the year plummets to 37%
The positive news had already been fully traded before, and after expectations were cleared, the impact of negative news could actually turn into the "last drop." The Bitcoin market is still tugging around 65,000, not because there is no bullish or bearish momentum, but because the chips are changing hands at an accelerated pace.
Sister Yue's judgment:
Among these three nodes, I believe the direct impact of the rate decision may be limited—the real direction is determined by the combined results of GDP and PCE. The Fed is very likely to maintain the status quo, but any change in wording in the statement will be magnified and interpreted. The data after 18 hours will be the key to victory: if the economy overheats + inflation persists, the market will shift directly from "waiting" to "countdown to rate hikes," and the pressure to adjust risk assets will be concentrated.
For operations, this window is not about betting on size, but about equal certainty. Before a decision, it's best not to heavily bet on one side; real opportunities come after the data is realized and emotions are fully expressed. The 65,000 direction side selection is about to be completed; patience is more important than courage. $ETH $BTC #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables 我是刺哥，微软、Meta、亚马逊财报扎堆在本周，周三周四连炸三颗。谷歌和特斯拉上周已经用盘后暴跌给市场打了样，谷歌资本开支超预期盘后跌超4%，特斯拉单周跌近20%。现在轮到三大云巨头交卷，AI叙事是就此稳住还是彻底崩塌，就看这一轮。
数据先摆出来，自己看
微软周三盘后披露，市场预期营收874亿美元，同比增长14.3%。全年资本开支规划1900亿美元，上季度已经砸了319亿，自由现金流从257亿大幅下滑到158亿。Azure增速能不能守住40%，是判断AI投入有没有回报的核心指标。
Meta同步登场，2026年资本支出预测已上调至最高1450亿美元。市场预期广告营收年增超25%，但核心问题是AI算力投入能不能转化为广告收入增长，而不侵蚀利润率。
亚马逊周四压轴，市场预期营收1962亿美元，同比增长17%。AWS增速和2000亿美元的全年资本开支目标是最大看点。KeyBanc分析师预计2027和2028年资本支出将分别达到3310亿和3560亿美元。
三家的共同问题是同一个：钱烧了，回报在哪
谷歌已经用负自由现金流给了答案。摩根大通估算2026年AI相关资本支出接近8700亿美元，其中超大规模云厂商约占7500亿。三大云厂商坐拥大量待执行订单，云业务营收持续提速，算力需求具备基本面支撑。但市场当前预期门槛不断抬升，投资者对不及预期财报的容忍度显著下降。
微软盘后已经跌了5.3%，说明市场在财报出来之前就已经在定价“营收不错但烧钱更猛”的组合。如果微软Meta亚马逊也给出同样的剧本，科技股二次承压是大概率事件。
对BTC的传导链条
短期看，如果三家财报超预期，AI硬件链条会被重新定价，存储和半导体板块情绪修复，BTC有望测试65700到66000的空头清算区。如果不及预期，科技股继续承压，BTC被拖累回踩64000到64500。
中期看，AI资本开支还在加速，四巨头合计资本开支预计超6500亿美元。烧的是法币信用，强化的是BTC的非主权资产叙事。每一次财报季的“营收不错但烧钱更猛”，都是在给BTC的长期逻辑添砖加瓦。
操作上
65922的空单逻辑依然成立。财报前别重仓赌方向。如果财报超预期，空单及时止损反手；如果不及预期，拿住等64000以下再加仓。方向没变，但波动会放大。
刺哥说完了。你细品。#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ $BTC $ETH $SHIB This week, the most important event in the market is about to arrive—the Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
I believe the biggest focus of this meeting is not whether there will be a rate cut, but what kind of signals the Federal Reserve will release.
From the current market expectations, the Fed is very likely to keep rates unchanged, which has basically been priced in by the market.
What will truly determine the short-term trends of Bitcoin, U.S. stocks, and gold is likely the post-meeting statement and Powell's press conference.
Why is this meeting so important?
In the past week, the U.S. released CPI and PPI data that were both lower than market expectations, and the market has resumed trading on rate cut expectations.
At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract capital inflows, and institutional allocation enthusiasm remains high.
Therefore, the market's main concern now is no longer "whether there will be a rate cut this time."
Instead, it is:
• Will the Federal Reserve acknowledge that inflation is improving?
• Will it signal a possible policy shift in the coming months?
• What is the latest assessment of economic growth and the labor market?
These factors could directly affect market expectations for future liquidity.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
If the Fed's overall tone is dovish, acknowledging continued cooling of inflation and hinting at a gradual easing of policy in the future, risk asset sentiment is likely to improve further, and Bitcoin may continue to attract capital.
If the tone remains hawkish, emphasizing that inflation risks still exist or implying that high rates will be maintained longer, the market may experience short-term volatility, and Bitcoin could face some downward pressure.
My advice:
Don't rush to heavily bet on a direction before the rate decision is announced.
Historical experience shows that around major macro events, market volatility usually amplifies significantly, with prices possibly surging or dropping quickly first, then choosing direction again based on the press conference content.
For traders, rather than guessing the outcome, it's better to wait for the market to confirm the direction and then follow the trend.
This Federal Reserve meeting may have no suspense regarding the rate itself, but the signals Powell releases will likely determine the trend of global risk assets in the coming weeks. What truly affects Bitcoin is not whether the rate remains unchanged, but whether market expectations for future liquidity change. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $BTC #美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Market expectations have undergone a significant shift! Previously, widespread rumors spread that the U.S. would impose a blanket restriction on open-source AI solutions, causing the probability to decline rapidly. Nvidia led several tech companies in issuing a joint open letter strongly opposing it, while Silicon Valley startups collectively voiced pressure on regulators, significantly cooling panic over tightening policies. Let's talk about the underlying logic and market impact.
Previously, closed-source AI companies continued lobbying regulators, calling for restrictions on open weighted models, and the market once worried about the introduction of strict bans. However, the recent situation has reversed, with giants like Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft jointly signing an open letter warning that premature restrictions on open-source AI will weaken the overall innovation competitiveness of the United States; A large number of small and medium-sized AI companies have followed suit, making resistance to one-size-fits-all control measures sharply increased.
Key reminder: The expected decline ≠ complete abandonment of regulation only greatly reduces the likelihood of strict bans, and the moderate regulatory framework is still being advanced.
1. Risk premiums in the technology sector are declining
Ban fears have subsided, easing market concerns about tightening AI industry policies. The stable development of the open-source ecosystem means that AI adoption is expected to accelerate, the long-term demand logic for computing power is consolidated, and this will benefit risk appetite in the US semiconductor and AI hardware sectors. The warming of tech sentiment has indirectly provided emotional support for highly volatile risk assets such as BTC and ETH.
2. The long-term contest between the two major camps in Silicon Valley has continued
The market must recognize the root causes of disagreement:
Open source camp: Open source models expand AI application scenarios. No matter what model runs, GPU computing power is needed, leading to long-term hardware demand;
Closed-source camp: Concerned that low-cost open-source models will impact their commercialization returns, they continue to push for control.
The rivalry between the two major factions will not end, and regulatory news will continue to surface, which could easily trigger short-term market volatility.
3. Distinguish between short-term emotional catalysts and long-term main themes
This news is a secondary positive trend at the industry level and is unlikely to drive mainstream coins to a major trend rally on their own. The medium- to long-term trends of BTC and ETH remain dominated by expectations of Fed rate cuts and the CLARITY crypto bill.
Sector differentiation remains unchanged: computing power infrastructure targets continue to benefit; Themes driven solely by concept speculation without real-world scenarios remain under valuation pressure.
Personal Market Analysis:
In the short term, don't rely solely on this news to chase the rally; be wary of sentiment realizing after positive news materializes.
Continue to track two key signals:
(1) Official U.S. Subsequent Draft Regulation Text;
(2) Can the US US computing power sector maintain its upward trend?
From a medium- to long-term perspective, continuous expansion of the open-source AI ecosystem is the main direction, and the computing power industry chain repeatedly presents strategic opportunities. The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting will kick off early Thursday morning, and every wording adjustment in the policy statement will have a huge impact on the crypto market. A somewhat accommodative outlook can drive the market higher; if the tone is hawkish, Bitcoin has a chance to quickly pull back and test 62,000. At this stage, various economic data are tugging at each other. Expectations of easing geopolitical pressure have pushed oil prices lower, and market concerns over persistently rising inflation have cooled. However, initial jobless claims data performed better than expected, and the labor market remained strong. The Fed faces a very prominent challenge: rate cuts easily trigger a resurgence of inflation, and maintaining high rates also carries the potential risk of economic downturn. Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release their earnings reports successively on Wednesday and Thursday. Currently, funding is no longer just empty AI development stories; the focus is on corporate capital expenditure planning and when related investments translate into actual profits. If earnings guidance falls short of market expectations, the Nasdaq will be the first to come under pressure, making it difficult for Bitcoin to break out of its standalone rally. Immediately following the policy meeting, FTX will begin a $900 million compensation payment on July 31. The final flow of these funds is highly uncertain. Some victims permanently exit after receiving the funds, while others return to the market. The proportion of these two will affect subsequent market liquidity. Currently, BTC holds above the 65,000 level, with the Panic and Greed Index reaching 30. Compared to previous figures, market panic has somewhat eased, but investors still have concerns. This can be understood as a short-term extreme downturn risk$BTC Going up under passive buying. Spot CVD is trending down, BUT price is up. Most likely someone big is TWAP selling into chasing bids.
Also, shorts closing helped to push the price. Look how OI from Friday that came at the lows has been wiped out.ETH DIDN'T DIE. WE DID.
We never got a real bull market.
We got Saylor buying $1.28B of BTC and CT rotating into SOL memecoin trenches.
Retail rugged itself.
Now look at the flows:
July 2026:
$ETH ETFs: $5.41B in inflows. Best month ever
$BTC ETFs: $175M in outflows
Last week:
BlackRock ETHA: +$254M in 1 day
ETH futures OI: $10B+ first time ever
Corporate treasuries: 17 firms now hold 1.75M ETH = $7.53B
33% of all ETH is now staked.
ETH TVL: $41B. But 24h NFT volume: $648K
The "world computer" became the "institutional settlement layer".
Stablecoins. RWAs. Payments. All building on ETH.
The institutions love ETH.
The people left.
Ironic and sad.
NFA.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch #波动雷达: Monitor currency fluctuations
Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to 0.42, with a historical average of 1.7—a difference of more than four times. The market is indeed in an undervalued range, but analysts have not called for "bottom-fishing"; instead, they added: there have been no signals of surrender yet.
What is the MVRV Z-Score?
Simply put, it measures the degree of deviation from Bitcoin's current price relative to the average cost of all holders. Higher values mean more expensive; lower values mean cheaper. 0.42 means Bitcoin is indeed not expensive, but historically, it is the true cycle bottom, and this indicator usually only counts when it drops to negative territory. The fact that it's still above zero means it's not yet in the extreme panic state where "everyone is cutting their losses."
Another signal is also confirming this judgment.
$BTC 7, the realized profit and loss have turned positive, currently about $239 million. This means that those who sold in the past seven days have generally made money, and on-chain selling pressure is easing. But relief does not mean a reversal; it only indicates that the most feared wave of selling may have already passed and buying has not truly returned.
The market is now stuck in an awkward position.
Cheap is really cheap, but lacks a reason to make everyone rush in. Oil prices remain high, the FOMC has yet to be finalized, and the CLARITY Act hangs in the air. A Fed that doesn't provide signposts, plus a pile of unresolved macro variables and no clear catalyst, underestimation can last a long time.
My view:
The indicator says "it's worth watching," but it's not yet "time to rush." The overestimated range ≠ immediately rebounded. Wait for the FOMC to take place, for oil prices to stabilize, and for a real catalyst to emerge. Before the direction is clear, not increasing positions is the bottom line. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
I think the Federal Reserve will most likely hold steady in July, but the post-meeting statement will be more hawkish than everyone expects.
The real rate hike window is in September; this meeting is just a warning shot. Previously, the market was still fantasizing about rate cuts within the year, but now with oil prices and employment both exceeding expectations, the easing expectations have been completely wiped out. So don’t trade based on old assumptions; the high interest rate environment will last longer than anyone thinks, and growth assets will remain under pressure in the short term.
According to data: CME’s latest pricing shows a 63.7% probability of holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in July, and a 36.3% probability of a 25bp hike — this hike probability was only 13% a week ago, nearly tripling in just a few days. More importantly, the probability of a rate hike in September has surged to 55%, with the market basically assuming action at the next meeting.
Brent crude has surged past $100, pushing inflation rebound risks to the max; initial jobless claims last week were only 187,000, hitting a new low since April, showing the labor market is tighter than expected. Both of these key Fed indicators are strengthening simultaneously, so there is absolutely no reason for rate cuts, but rather ample confidence for rate hikes.
Therefore, I believe holding steady in July is highly likely, but hawkish remarks are unavoidable, and the September rate hike window officially opens. It’s safest to control your position size and keep enough cash on hand to handle volatility. ETH staking data sends a positive signal—is Ethereum undergoing a new round of value revaluation?
Recently, I've noticed an interesting phenomenon: Ethereum validator exit queues have dropped to zero, and staking can be unstaked without waiting; Meanwhile, about 2.48 million ETH are lining up for staking.
Many people may worry that the "exit queue has been cleared to zero" means funds are leaving, but I believe more attention should be paid to changes in the combination of capital flows. The return of exit channels to normal indicates healthier network liquidity, and the proactive staking of a large amount of ETH reflects that holders still have confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.
Additionally, according to DefiLlama data, several Ethereum ecosystem protocols have recently shown net inflows, and DeFi activity is rebounding. Whether it's staking demand or ecosystem capital accumulation, both indicate that ETH remains one of the core foundational assets in the crypto market.
I believe the market may still be affected by sentiment in the short term, but what truly determines ETH's long-term value are network usage, ecosystem growth, and institutional fund recognition.
As more ETH is locked in staking and ecosystem applications, market supply decreases, which may form stronger value support in the long run.
Ethereum's story has never been just about price, but about the ongoing expansion of the entire on-chain economic system.📉 FIFA chọn $AVAX để triển khai hạ tầng blockchain, nhưng vì sao AVAX vẫn giảm hơn 70% từ đỉnh?
Nhiều người cho rằng việc FIFA hợp tác với Avalanche sẽ giúp $AVAX tăng mạnh. Nhưng thực tế, giá lại không phản ứng như kỳ vọng.
😱Những điểm đáng chú ý:
📌 Tin tốt không đồng nghĩa với giá tăng.
Thị trường thường phản ánh kỳ vọng trước khi tin tức chính thức được công bố.
📌 Nguồn cung vẫn tiếp tục được mở khóa.
Áp lực cung tăng khiến giá khó bứt phá nếu lực mua không đủ mạnh.
📌 Dòng tiền ngắn hạn chưa quay lại.
Dữ liệu cho thấy dòng tiền lớn vẫn chưa có dấu hiệu tích lũy rõ ràng, trong khi áp lực bán vẫn hiện hữu.
📌 Long đang chiếm ưu thế.
Khi quá nhiều nhà đầu tư cùng nghiêng về một phía, thị trường luôn tiềm ẩn nguy cơ xuất hiện một cú quét thanh khoản nếu giá giảm.
FIFA là một đối tác lớn và là tín hiệu tích cực cho hệ sinh thái Avalanche. Tuy nhiên, giá AVAX vẫn phụ thuộc vào dòng tiền, cung cầu và tâm lý thị trường, chứ không chỉ dựa vào một tin tức hợp tác.
Công nghệ tốt chưa chắc tạo ra lợi nhuận. Trong crypto, dòng tiền mới là yếu tố quyết định giá.
Bài viết thể hiện góc nhìn phân tích cá nhân, không phải lời khuyên đầu tư. #QuantumDeadline2031BTC Changxin is listed, it feels a bit like SPCX, sucking blood from the entire big A market. I didn't dare to participate, the biggest reason being that the big A market is damn T+1.
Guess what happens next?
Because of low circulation, it's very likely that the market cap will fomo rise to over 4 trillion in the first two days of opening, but going higher than that would be too much fomo. Hynix still has a better cost-performance ratio.
This kind of hot opening is played by few; I only participated in Xizhi Technology and SPCX openings, and managed to sneak a little profit because of T+0 trading, allowing me to take a little and leave.
Later, wait for Changxin to suck blood from the entire big A market, then gradually bottom-fish the STAR 50, hold STAR 50 for the long term, choosing to believe in China's technology.
To be honest, the government is the most powerful. The Hefei government holds more than 30% of Changxin shares. Just one Changxin equals more than ten years of Hefei's fiscal revenue. This kind of situation may become more common in the future. Previously, the government relied on land sales for fiscal revenue, but there may be a shift in thinking going forward.
Believe in the nation's fortune, believe in technology. Of course, I also bought a lot of old Deng stocks to hedge.... In fact, the nature of @BitMEX and @BitMartExchange closures is different and should not be confused.
BitMEX is more like orderly cleaning up its business—closing positions where needed, withdrawing what needs to be withdrawn, and finally completing the final stage with dignity. This is called bankruptcy. If they didn't do anything wrong, at least everyone could part ways on good terms.
However, BitMart is very likely unable to properly repay user assets, with large withdrawals delaying arrival.
If it is ultimately confirmed that the funds are insufficient and the user's withdrawal cannot be repaid and many users lose money, that is called running away and ending on bad terms.#美国禁止开源AI的预期大幅回落
Ban on open-source AI expectations sharply declined: not that regulation is unregulated, but that bans are no longer effective. Around July 20, the White House was still reassessing the ban on Chinese open-source models, but the situation changed drastically in less than a week:
On July 24, 25 U.S. giants including Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, IBM, and Hugging Face jointly issued an open letter, bluntly declaring: Do not ban open weight models; banning them is equivalent to handing the ecosystem back to a handful of closed-source giants
Nearly 200 Silicon Valley startups co-branded earlier: cutting off China's open source = startup costs exploding = disguised supply to OpenAI/Anthropic
The AI executive order signed by the White House in June centers on a 30-day security evaluation window + voluntary government-enterprise collaboration—not a ban on publication, nor a ban on downloading. The new framework ideas leaked in mid-July are more practical: using Chinese open-source models as the capability benchmark, rapid release for those not over-the-limit, strict review for over-the-limits, essentially replacing bans with tiering.
Therefore, the narrative of the U.S. completely banning open-source AI has been crushed by three forces over the past two weeks:
1. Industry votes with their feet (Chinese models on OpenRouter account for nearly 60% of US enterprise token usage, banning Silicon Valley and shutting down first)
2. Within the government, there are already advocates for the US to open up and prioritize authority. Sacks/Kratsios argue that the US must win in open source, not just shut down open source.
3. Limited administrative resources, prioritize computing power export controls + advanced model security reviews, and globally downloadable open-source weights—bans won't stop them
What does this mean for the crypto world? Previously, AI x Crypto was suppressed by the black swan ban on valuations, and now this discount layer is being withdrawn:
For DeAI/privacy computing/decentralized computing power like FET, PHA, TAO, RNDR, and GRASS, the logic shifts from regulatory extinction risk back to a practical competition.
But don't get carried away: expectations fall and ≠ all the positive news has been exhausted. The market will follow a structured market of tiered regulation + US liberalization and weight replacement, and miscellaneous AI coins will still be washed out.
In a market with shrinking volume, the AI sector is experiencing emotional recovery rather than a trend reversal; waiting for a pullback to confirm is more comfortable than chasing a bullish candle.
My judgment: banning open source will drop from a 40% probability to below 10%, but the long-term main theme is to manage cutting-edge closed-source + card hash power exports. The market is leading the way in the wave of policy extremism, not the disappearance of AI regulation.$ETH is quite firm when it's tough, and soft when it's soft. Take today, for example: it pushed north to 2000, but the hard ones weren't good, and the pullback was only a slight pullback. Everyone has been hoping to break through 2000 these days, but the resistance is still quite strong—unless it can hold above 1980. Moreover, news has been flying everywhere lately, with the 7.30 FOMC meeting being especially crucial. Trump has paused military strikes against Iran, and the US and Iran have begun negotiations through Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, making progress. International oil prices have plunged more than 5%. The logic of "Middle East conflict + oil prices breaking 100 + rate hike expectations" that previously suppressed risk assets was weakened, capital flowed back into crypto, and BTC/ETH rebounded simultaneously. • ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $103.9 million last week, marking three consecutive weeks of positive inflows, and the largest of the four ETFs (BTC only $33.79 million) • On July 27, ETH ETFs saw net inflows of tens of millions of dollars for several consecutive days, while BTC ETFs saw net outflows during the same period—institutions rotated internally, tilting their holdings toward increasing ETH holdings • With staking exit queues zeroed, over 2.5 million ETH queued to enter, and a staking rate of 33.6% hit a record high, Supply is structurally compressed. ETH surged strongly northward today, hitting 1982.29, directly wiping out the upper short stop loss and facing huge selling pressure. For the remaining 2.5 days, it will keep oscillating within this range. The earliest it could exceed 2000 by the 29th, but it will soon be pushed back down. If it can't break through, it will have to return to 1850Long-term small gains with occasional big losses versus long-term small losses with occasional big profits: which strategy should you choose?One of the biggest problems with traditional international forex trading is that funds are not settled immediately after the transaction is completed.
Chainlink collaborated with several multinational banks to promote Project Pangea,
Research is underway to shorten the settlement time in the international foreign exchange market to T+0.
That is, transactions and settlements are usually completed on the same day whenever possible.
If this model is truly implemented, it will reduce more than just waiting time,
It also includes counterparty risk, capital occupation, and complex backend reconciliation costs.
LINK's next battle is not just about the crypto oracle market,
Instead, it is the location of data and settlement infrastructure after traditional financial assets enter the chain.
$LINK$OKB, its performance was relatively flat amid broad market gains. As the platform token of OKX Exchange, OKB's value mainly depends on usage within the OKX ecosystem and market demand. Recently, OKB's performance has been driven more by overall market sentiment—when the market weakens, funds flee from the exchange sector, putting pressure on it, while when the market recovers, funds cluster together to buy platform tokens for safe havens. OKX previously conducted large-scale token burns, significantly reducing the supply of OKB and providing long-term price support from the supply side. In addition, OKX's ongoing expansion and institutional collaborations have also brought positive sentiment to OKB. Against the backdrop of current geopolitical easing, if market risk appetite continues to rise, OKB, as the platform token of a leading exchange, is expected to benefit from increased overall trading activity. In the short term, attention should be paid to a breakout near $85. If the market continues to strengthen, OKB is likely to follow the rebound.: Today's SNDK rally is largely a correction of last Friday's sharp drop in the US stock market SanDisk/Hynix.
Tonight, the US stock market opens (21:30 Beijing time). If tech stocks cannot maintain their strength, SNDK futures are very likely to weaken early on $SNDK #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
I'm Ci Ge, and this week the financial markets are truly welcoming a super week. The Fed's rate decision, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon earnings, FTX's fifth round of compensation—these three events all happen in the same week, each capable of igniting the market on its own. Now, when combined, the direction will be released in a concentrated manner early Thursday morning.
Federal Reserve decision: probability of rate hikes soars from 13% to 38%
A week ago, the market was still holding a solid position, with only a 13% probability of a rate hike. Now, CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has soared to 38%, and the rate swap market data is similar, with a rate hike probability of about 30% and a steady rate of about 70%. Economists, on the other hand, are holding steady on all their expectations. With such a huge divergence between officials and the market, one side inevitably has to admit fault.
The drop in oil prices is the biggest variable. Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire have pushed WTI down to $85, causing geopolitical risk premiums to fade rapidly and easing inflation concerns. However, Goldman Sachs analysts have made it clear that the impact of this decision largely depends on how Federal Reserve Chairman Washi explains the decision and future policy path.
Tech giants' financial reports: The AI money-burning battle is facing a major test
Microsoft released its earnings report on Wednesday, with market expectations for $87.4 billion in revenue, up 14.3% year-over-year. The full-year capital expenditure plan is $190 billion, with last quarter's capital expenditure at $31.9 billion, and free cash flow has sharply declined from $25.7 billion to $15.8 billion. Whether Azure can maintain around 40% growth is key to justifying AI investment.
Meta also announced on Wednesday that its 2026 capital expenditure forecast has been raised to a maximum of $145 billion. Bank of America expects Q2 revenue of $60.6 billion and earnings per share of $7.50, both exceeding market expectations. Core advertising business is strong, but AI return on spend remains the biggest question mark in the market.
Amazon closed on Thursday, with market expectations for $196.2 billion in revenue, up 17% year-over-year. Capital expenditures for 2026 are already targeting about $200 billion, and free cash flow may even turn negative. AWS growth rate and AI investment return are the core variables influencing market sentiment.
Last week, Google and Tesla set an example for the market with their after-hours plunge. Google's capital expenditures exceeded expectations, falling more than 4% in after-hours trading; Tesla's profits have declined, dropping nearly 20% in a single week. If Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon also offer a "decent revenue but burns even harder" portfolio, tech stocks could come under pressure again. If cloud business growth exceeds expectations and capital expenditure guidance is moderate, the entire AI hardware chain will be repriced.
FTX's fifth round of compensation, $900 million, began on July 31
FTX will initiate the fifth round of creditor distributions on July 31, amounting to approximately $900 million. Some creditors can recover claims ranging from 103% to 120%. Since bankruptcy, nearly $10 billion has been repaid. A significant portion of the $900 million will flow back into the crypto market, providing buying support.
How does BTC move?
The short position logic at 65922 still holds. The probability of a Fed rate hike surged from 13% to 38%, and tech giants' earnings reports may fall short of expectations—these are short-term constraints. However, if the Fed remains inactive and takes a dovish stance, combined with better-than-expected earnings and FTX recovering compensation funds, BTC could quickly test the short liquidation zone between 65,700 and 66,000.
The outcome of the bullish and bearish showdown will be revealed this week. Hold your positions, and don't heavily bet on directions before the data comes out. Ci Ge finished speaking, take a closer look. $BTC $ETH $DOGE After squatting at the site of the ruins for a long time, you'll realize that every dynasty that undertook massive construction and forcibly requisitioned gold from across the land to build temples often left only two things for future generations: either an immortal miracle or a towering, mountain-heavy tombstone.
Today's new stories will be tomorrow's unearthed artifacts. Each wave of frenzy claimed to be unprecedented; when they opened the stratigraphic records, they were all photocopies.
Take a look at the recently unearthed "stratum fragments": Google's massive capital spending led to a massive price crash, and Tesla plunged from its deepest cliff since 2022. Now, it's the turn of the three massive computing power empires—Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—to stand in the test of history. Explorers and gold seekers across the market are watching this week's capital expenditure guidelines from these three giants—everyone anxiously awaits a judgment: will the real silver being swallowed up be forging the Tower of Babel for the next era, or hollowing out the empire's granaries?
In archaeology, we never heed priestly prophecies, only recognizing carbon-14 dating and physical stratigraphic evidence. The true growth of cloud business and the efficiency of monetizing computing power commercialization are the only evidence to test whether this $10 billion arms race is a "real cash grab" or a "mirage." If you can't provide sufficient proof of output, those giant data centers that have risen from the ground are nothing more than the ruins of heated capacitors dug out from sand and dust decades later.
Even more intriguing, this struggle over imperial fortune had long broken the traditional law of day and night alternation. In the never-ending digital night market, tokenized US stock stocks represented by $XAMZN have achieved seamless 24/7 circulation. Even late at night when traditional markets are closed, people still use stablecoins to engage in real-time debates and price pricing for the fate of these business giants. $XAMZN's volatility is like early warning relics unearthed underground, transmitting anxiety and turmoil in the main board market to every nerve ending of on-chain assets without delay.
All the frenzy and collapses in history ultimately cannot escape the first law of stratigraphy: strata do not lie, and time will settle everything. As storms sweep past ancient dunes, the digital tokens traded late at night and the vast bills of computing power have already carved dense marks of greed and fear into the layers of history. #AIEarningsWatch ETH climbed from $1846 all the way to $1982, surging nearly $140 over the weekend. Some longs have made some losses, but those who cut losses at 1850 probably regret it deeply. The direct trigger for the rebound is clear—a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. After 13 consecutive nights of airstrikes against Iran, the U.S. military suspended its strikes on the evening of July 24, and Iran's previous nightly retaliations ceased. A senior Iranian official made it clear: as long as the U.S. stops, Iran will stop too. The temporary cooling of geopolitical risks has had immediate effects. Oil prices plummeted more than 5% to around $96.7, with safe-haven funds flowing back from the dollar into risk assets, making ETH one of the biggest beneficiaries. Market concerns about worsening inflation have temporarily eased, which in turn dampened expectations for aggressive rate hikes, giving crypto assets some breathing room in the short term. But don't celebrate too soon—how long you can breathe depends entirely on the Fed's early Wednesday morning meeting. Currently, the market pricing in this rate decision has become extremely divided. According to CME federal funds futures data, the market is betting on a 25 basis point rate hike in July with a probability of about 36%-38%, compared to 13% a week ago. On the other hand, a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists shows that all expect rates to remain unchanged. Why are there such big divisions? Fed Chair Wash has completely abandoned "forward-looking guidance," making it clear that he will no longer communicate policy direction with the market in advance, and that every meeting is a "real-time" decision. PGIM's chief U.S. economist bluntly stated that the meeting was "almost fifty-fifty." Even more life-threateningChina's breakthrough in artificial intelligence is stimulating the US-led high-tech blockade and the "island economy" model, breaking the dollar siphon — this is also the issue the US government worries most! Previously, on July 19, I wrote that China's continuous breakthroughs in artificial intelligence are challenging the U.S. blockade on cutting-edge AI technology, putting greater pressure on US Q2 earnings reports! The core of my view is not that China's AI has completely caught up with the US, but rather that the powerful production capacity and high efficiency expectations brought by China's breakthroughs are breaking the US tech blockade. Especially in the global mass AI market, which is cost-sensitive, allows for local deployment, pursues sufficient use rather than absolute strength, and has low regulatory barriers, this will accelerate market transformation and bring more challenges to US tech companies! 1. Changxin Technology's boss: The rise in market value essentially represents a breakthrough in China's AI supply. 1. In the AI era, computing power competition has shifted from the GPU frontline to the storage field. 2. What did the market focus on in the past? It's NVIDIA's GPUs, TSMC's advanced packaging, Broadcom's switching chips are optical modules, and now another has been added—DRAM/HBM and other storage components. 3. GPU computing power + memory capacity + bandwidth are the three essential elements for AI training. China has previously tried various ways to break technological blockades through amplification, while Changxin Technology represents a breakthrough on the storage side. 4. Changxin's listing means the capital market is beginning to reprice the domestic AI hardware chain, accelerating breakthroughs and financing capabilities in the industry chain. This means the AI supply chain is no longer possibleIf your impression of Solana is still stuck at "ten thousand Dogecoins popping up every day, and all the animals in the zoo are released once," then you might need to update your version. Solana's Q2 report left me a bit dazed—the transaction volume of tokenized on-chain equity surged 114% quarter-on-quarter, reaching $4.8 billion. Note, it's not a full year, but a quarter, and it's a real equity asset, not some Shiba Inu or Toad Coin. Compared to the first quarter, this figure has quadrupled. It's like the small skewer stall downstairs at your house selling skewers every day, suddenly hanging a Michelin sign and starting private dinners—the atmosphere is moving a bit fast. From Zoo to Wall Street Transformation: In the past, the market's stereotypes about the SOL ecosystem were extremely solid: meme-driven, a playground for local dogs, and a new narrative every day. Indeed, in the past two years, Solana became a hotbed for grassroots projects thanks to its extremely low gas fees and rapid speed, with various meme coins playing wildly on it and attracting a large amount of speculative capital. But honestly, this ecosystem has a fatal flaw—it's lively, but it comes and goes quickly. Capital comes like a tide, withdrawing at any moment. And now, with $4.8 billion in tokenized equity trading volume, we know that a completely different group of players is entering the market. These people care not about which coin's dog head is cuter, but about how to conveniently allocate on-chain assets like private equity and startup shares—assets with high barriers in the traditional world. After tokenization, the equity that was originally locked in Excel spreadsheets has become...At the close of US stocks on Monday, the $BTC 63,300 level had been sideways all day. ETF data is out—net outflow of 43 million, but strangely, the price hasn't dropped much. To me, this deviation is a signal.
After six years of navigating this market, my deepest takeaway is: news is fragile against the market. Last year, news of ETF outflows would have been a $BTC drop long ago, but this week it clearly hasn't fallen.
On-chain data is even more interesting: BTC balances on exchanges have declined for the fourth consecutive day, while stablecoins continue to flow in. This shows that some people are accumulating shares at low prices, rather than fleeing in panic. $ETH is also starting to gain volume. If this breakthrough breaks previous highs, it could be the horn for the knockoff season.
Only those who can hold hold deserve to eat the meat. $BTC $ETH $SOL#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
In recent years, the global storage market has been dominated by the "big three": Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.
But with ChangXin Memory Technologies entering the capital market, a new competitor has officially stepped onto the stage.
The significance behind this is not just the addition of a listed company, but it represents that China's storage industry chain is entering a new phase.
The storage industry is essentially cyclical.
Over the past two years, DRAM and NAND prices have experienced significant fluctuations, with manufacturers shifting from aggressive expansion to proactive production cuts, completing a cycle of inventory clearance.
Now, AI is reshaping the demand structure of the storage market.
Previously, storage mainly relied on mobile phones and PC consumer electronics.
Now, AI servers and high-performance computing are becoming new growth engines.
Especially HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), which has become a key resource in AI chip competition.
Why are NVIDIA GPUs so powerful?
Besides computing power, they also rely on the support of high-speed storage.
Future storage competition will no longer be about who has the largest capacity, but who can master advanced processes, high-end products, and the AI supply chain.
The listing of ChangXin Memory Technologies also means that global storage industry competition may enter a new stage:
From the past "big three monopoly" gradually evolving into multi-party competition.
But challenges are equally evident.
The storage industry doesn't make money by stories, but through technology, scale, and the ability to navigate cycles.
Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, after decades of accumulation, still hold huge technological advantages.
For ChangXin, going public is just the starting point; the real test is whether it can prove its competitiveness in the next storage cycle.
For investors, a core change needs to be recognized:
The biggest opportunity in the AI era may not only lie in AI applications.
Chips behind computing power, advanced packaging, and storage could all become key links in the next round of industry competition.
But caution is also needed:
Every industrial revolution sees the market speculating on the future in advance.
The companies that truly survive are not those telling the loudest stories, but those that can continue investing in R&D even during cyclical downturns.
The new war in the storage industry has only just begun.Last week, Google and Tesla gave everyone a lesson.
Google Cloud revenue surged 82%—the best performance ever. Tesla's revenue hit 28.2 billion, a historic high.
And then?
Google dropped 7%, Tesla dropped 14%.
The reason is two words: burning money.
Google's Q2 capital expenditure was $44.9 billion, with free cash flow turning negative for the first time since going public, at -$5.9 billion. They also raised their full-year capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion.
The market turned hostile immediately. It used to be "the more the better," now it's "the less the better."
Now it's Microsoft's, Meta's, and Amazon's turn.
Microsoft and Meta report on Wednesday, Amazon on Thursday.
How much will these three burn this year? According to analysts' average estimates, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta will spend about $724 billion in capital expenditures this year, approaching $950 billion by 2027.
What does $724 billion mean? It's more than Sweden's annual GDP.
And the returns? Institutions predict that in 2026, Google and Amazon will still have negative free cash flow for the full year, and Meta's full-year cash flow may shrink by 95.7%, leaving only $1.85 billion.
Let's start with Microsoft—the most dangerous one.
Microsoft's stock price has retreated nearly 30% from its high. This year, it ranks second to last among the seven giants, down 21% cumulatively.
The market is watching two numbers:
Azure growth—management guidance is 39% to 40%. If maintained, the AI story can continue; if not, the $190 billion capital expenditure is a bottomless pit.
Capital expenditure guidance—last quarter was already $31.9 billion, this quarter over $40 billion. The fiscal year 2027 expectation is about $22 billion, seen as a "discipline" threshold. If it far exceeds this, free cash flow pressure will increase further.
Microsoft's problem is that Azure must serve external customers and support internal Copilot and AI R&D. Computing power is never enough, and money is always burning. Copilot has become a standard feature from an add-on, but can monetization keep pace with the burn rate?
Next, Meta—the purest stress test.
Meta has no cloud business to sell computing power; AI investment can only be absorbed internally: improving ad targeting and enhancing user engagement.
The company has already raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125 billion to $145 billion. The stock price has dropped 9.7% year-to-date.
The advertising business is indeed strong—Q1 ad revenue was $55 billion, up 33%. But how much can AI spending erode profit margins?
Meta is the purest AI investment stress test among the four. Without a cloud business to back it, AI returns rely entirely on ad monetization. If this earnings report doesn't significantly boost ad revenue through AI, Meta's valuation support will be the weakest.
Finally, Amazon—the biggest card.
Amazon's script is different from the others. It has AWS.
AWS growth rebounded to 28% in Q1, a three-year high, with backlog orders exceeding $360 billion. Analysts expect AWS growth to possibly exceed 30% in Q2.
A $200 billion capital expenditure plan has yielded AWS's highest-ever operating margin of 13.1%. CEO Jassy said the self-developed chip Trainium "saves hundreds of billions in capital expenditure annually."
Amazon's problem is its size.
Free cash flow over the past twelve months is only $1.2 billion. With $200 billion spent, can AWS growth sustain? If the answer is no, the market won't be lenient—the stock once dropped 8% in a single day when the capital expansion plan was announced.
On Wednesday and Thursday, the three answers will be revealed.
Which number will you look at first?
I will first look at the capital expenditure guidance—will it be raised or maintained? If it continues to increase like Google, another sell-off will come.
Then look at cloud revenue growth—can Microsoft's Azure and Amazon's AWS meet expectations?
Finally, look at free cash flow—has it turned negative? By how much?
Do you still believe the "burn money to grow" story?
The giants spending big on AI are being hammered by the market, while chip makers fulfilling AI orders are soaring. In this AI feast, those making money and those paying the bill have never been the same group.
$META $XMSFT $AMZN
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative?
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are set to release earnings reports this week, and together their annual capital expenditures are approaching $500 billion.
The problem is that too much money is spent, but the returns are hard to see. The Big Seven are expected to spend 725 billion yuan on AI capital this year, and may reach 950 billion next year. The company's own operating cash flow simply can't cover it; it has to rely on issuing bonds and issuing additional stocks to make up for it. The market is already a bit frustrated—Meta has dropped nearly 10% this year, and Amazon has barely risen.
Microsoft was the first to go up after trading on Wednesday. Market expectations for revenue of 87.4 billion yuan, up 14.3%, with earnings per share of 4.21. Azure growth guidance is 39% to 40%, which is a key metric that must be met or even slightly exceeded. What truly tightens the market is capital expenditure—Q3 already reached 31.9 billion, Q4 guidance says over 40 billion, and the full-year is around 190 billion. Spending 190 billion to build an AI data center, and Azure can get a few more points up, whether this can be calculated is the biggest suspense.
Meta on the same day. Advertising business is still rising, with Bank of America forecasting revenue of 60.6 billion and earnings per share of 7.5%. However, the capital expenditure cap was raised from 135 billion to 145 billion. AI is indeed helping improve advertising efficiency, but spending 145 billion yuan for this efficiency boost is already questioning the market.
Amazon closed out on Thursday. AWS growth may exceed 30%, the first time since 2022. But the 200 billion yuan capital expenditure plan is still holding, and 25 billion yuan in bonds were issued this month, putting considerable pressure on free cash flow.
The three financial reports actually answer the same question—the Seven Giants burn 725 billion a year to build AI infrastructure. When will it turn into real money? Google already handed in last week, with cloud revenue up 82%, but capital expenditures doubled and free cash flow turned negative, and the market was not on the look.
If Microsoft's Azure growth falls below 39%, Meta raises capital expenditures again, or Amazon AWS's growth falls short of expectations, the AI narrative may have to be rewritten. At that point, the first to be abandoned won't be those companies that don't invest in AI, but those that invest the most but fail to deliver returns. Can they really stay safe?#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
Although it feels like there definitely won't be a rate hike this time, every time I see this, my heart still tightens, since it’s closely related to our assets!
Everyone is guessing — will there be a rate hike or not? Hawkish or dovish?
But you might not have noticed: the market has already "voted" before the meeting even started.
Let's first look at the most critical oil prices.
Last week, Brent crude $BZ once surged past 100 USD/barrel. The market freaked out — "Second inflation wave is coming! The Fed will hike rates to death!"
What happened? Iran and the US paused mutual attacks over the weekend, raising expectations of a ceasefire. Oil prices opened Monday with a 5% crash; Brent dropped to around 92 USD, WTI $CL fell below 85 USD.
The biggest inflation risk bomb defused itself before the FOMC meeting.
Looking at the gold $XAU market, this decision is also the hardest to predict. On one hand, US CPI data series continues to improve, seemingly easing the pressure for an immediate rate hike this month; on the other hand, officials led by Waller keep emphasizing their determination to fight inflation. The repeated tug-of-war in US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, with risks in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes, also strengthens the hawkish voices within the committee. Even if oil prices fall short-term, whether it can dispel rate hike thoughts remains uncertain.
Bitcoin $BTC is currently fluctuating around 65,000 USD. Ethereum $ETH has also reached about 1970 USD. The market is very strong, especially since ETF funds have been continuously increasing their positions.
The Fear and Greed Index has risen from the low point at the beginning of the month to around 39, still in the "fear" zone but relatively high within the month.
Options market signals are clear, with large bullish options betting on BTC surging to 72,000 USD after the FOMC announcement. Smart money is already pricing in the "oil price drop" logic.
My view: I think the focus of this FOMC is not whether to hike rates, but the expectation gap.
There should be two scenarios for the meeting, which can be simply understood as: if Waller’s speech is hawkish, continuously warning about inflation risks rising, the market will readjust expectations; if it acknowledges the current inflation slowdown and oil price decline, Bitcoin at 65,000 USD will most likely become a new support level, and there will be another wave of upward momentum. Let's first look at today's big picture: geopolitical risks are receding, but the money hasn't returned
The phrase you heard, "The U.S. is not fighting Iran," was indeed the core news of today's Asia-Pacific trading session.
As of 10 a.m. Beijing time today, WTI crude oil futures fell below $68 per barrel, with the intraday decline widening to 1.8%, indicating that the war premium is being rapidly squeezed out.
In theory, this is positive for risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), and the market has indeed rebounded in response.
But the problem is: this rally is not driven by incremental funds, but by short covering.
This morning's rebound did not effectively amplify trading volume.
In other words, many of those chasing the rally are actually allies who chose to "hold on" after being stuck yesterday, rather than new large funds entering the market.
This raises doubts about the sustainability of the rebound—if it rises, it could actually become the starting point for a new round of selling pressure.
---
Now look at the three stocks in your hands: each is in completely different situations
1. SHIB (Shiba Inu Coin)
Today, SHIB's trend is the most of a trendsetter. When the market rises, it rises slightly; when the market stagnates, it falls the fastest.
Looking at on-chain data, the number of large transfers in the past 24 hours has decreased, indicating that the "whales" have not acted; now, the main focus is on retail investors playing games.
Conclusion: If you don't have firm faith in 0.1u, then SHIB is not a good place to add to your position here. Because it lacks its own narrative drive and is entirely dependent on Bitcoin's mood.
2. KAITO (AI Concept Coin)
The AI sector was generally weak today because the earnings season for US tech stocks is approaching, and funds are waiting for the real results from Google and Tesla, hesitant to make early bets.
KAITO is a highly volatile stock, and its rebounds often come and go quickly.
If you increased your position yesterday, today's rise is more an opportunity to reduce losses and exit, rather than a signal to increase your position.
3. LAB (the one you emphasized)
Regarding LAB, there is a real data point today: as of 11 a.m., the 24-hour turnover rate of LAB/USDT exceeds 80%.
This is an extremely dangerous signal—high turnover + price not breaking previous highs means the main players are not building positions but selling off on opposite sides.
---
Back to your core question: add to your position or clear your position?
Here are three clear suggestions based on "today's actual situation," regardless of right or wrong, just to see if it suits you:
· If you haven't done anything today: it's best not to move, not to add to your position.
Because the rebound brought by geopolitical easing usually takes place within 6-12 hours after the news is confirmed.
The real test will come after the European session opens this afternoon. If European funds do not take over, there will be another pullback before the US market opens tonight.
· If your position is already over 60%: I suggest taking advantage of this rebound to offset the portion you added yesterday, even if it's just a small loss in fees.
Because your core issue right now isn't "whether you can make money," but "your mindset is unbalanced after being stuck."
After reducing your position, your holding cost will return to a more comfortable level, allowing you to hold onto your bottom position and avoid cutting at the lowest point in a panic.
· If you have no faith in 0.1u: then it's not a matter of adding or clearing positions, but of product selection.
Today's data is clear: Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) has rebounded above 58% again.
This shows that funds are hedged rather than taking risks. Betting on geopolitical news with altcoins is essentially using short-term logic for long-term positions—this is the root of losses.
---
Finally, let me be honest with you
Brother, today isn't 'something terrible,' but rather 'the chaos after the alarm is lifted.'
The real major market will only be decided tomorrow after the earnings reports from Google and Tesla come out tonight, and see how US stocks price their stocks.
Increasing positions now is gambling on news; Clearing out now is a gamble on emotions.
And in this market, the only thing you don't bet on is controlling your position and costs.
My advice is clear: don't make decisions today—just look, not buy.
If US stocks strengthen tonight, look for an opportunity to add tomorrow; If the US stock market weakens tonight, every penny you add today will become regret tomorrow.
Stay steady, and don't let your position crush your judgment.
You're still at the table, so there's still a chance.
$SHIB $KAITO $LAB — But don't forget, live first, then talk about making money.Complete Analysis of Ethereum and ETH Market Trends (2026.07.27)
1. Current Status of Market Foundation
1. Current Price and Volatility
The current price is about 1965 USDT, up 3.8% in 24 hours, significantly outperforming Bitcoin, with capital slightly rotating into second-tier crypto assets; The intraday range is 1890~1970 USD, with a short-term rebound on high volume, but the medium-term downward pattern has not reversed.
The overall decline this year has been 44%, reaching a historical high of $4,878 and a cumulative drawdown of over 60%. The bear market correction is much larger than Bitcoin's.
2. Technical Indicators
The daily RSI is 62, near the overbought edge, with short-term bullish momentum temporarily released; The price has risen above the short-term 5-day moving average but remains heavily pressured by the two major medium- to long-term moving averages, the 50-day (1890) and 200-day (2317) lines, without forming a reversal trend.
3. Key Core Points (USD)
| Gear | Price range | Interpretation |
| ---- | ---- | ---- |
| Short-term strong resistance | 2000 integer threshold, 2080 | 2000 is a psychological threshold; only by holding firm can a rebound be opened; 2080 is a short-term zone of intensive trapping
| Mid-term heavy pressure | 2317 (200-day moving average) | Only when breaking through the bull-bear dividing line can the downtrend be completely reversed
| Short-term support | 1890 (50-day moving average) | This round of rebound marks a watershed between strength and weakness; breaking below the rebound marks the end of the rebound and returning to consolidation |
| Core defensive support | 1680 | In the previous period of heavy trading and low positions, a loss would trigger a deep pullback |
| Extreme support | 1385 | A temporary low point for the year, an extreme decline at the bottom |
2. Short-term upward support logic
1. Easing macro expectations
In June, U.S. core inflation fell to 2.6%. The market unanimously expects the Fed to maintain a high interest rate of 3.5%-3.75% on July 29, significantly reducing the probability of rate hikes this year. U.S. Treasury yields edged down, valuation pressure on non-interest-free crypto assets eased in the short term, and capital flows back into risk assets.
2. Capital rotation and speculation
After a slight rise in Bitcoin, short-term speculative funds flowed into Ethereum, while DeFi and staking sectors surged simultaneously, with ecosystem tokens like stETH and UNI following suit, driving ETH's short-term pulse to strengthen.
3. Long-term policy narrative for spot ETFs
The approval of the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF continues to be in a tug-of-war, with the market always betting on its subsequent implementation. As long as regulators send a moderate signal, it will trigger a short-term rebound—this is the unique logic behind Ethereum's speculation.
4. Staking and locking reduces circulation selling pressure
A large amount of ETH has been staked long-term on the Beacon Chain, shrinking the circulating spot supply, eliminating unlimited concentrated sell-offs, greatly limiting the room for extreme price crashes.
3. Suppressing the core medium- to long-term bearish factors that sustain the surge
1. A high interest rate environment will persist for the long term
Institutional economists unanimously expect the Fed to cut rates throughout 2026, with persistently high yields on risk-free Treasuries, and funds favoring low-risk fixed income products. The crypto market has long lacked incremental capital inflows, making the rebound unsustainable.
2. Ethereum ETF funds outflow as a whole
Short-term small single-day net inflows cannot reverse the long-term trend of sustained net outflows. Institutions' willingness to position in Ethereum is far lower than Bitcoin's, and there is no long-term large-scale buying to support the market.
3. Continued weakening of ecological narratives
Layer 2 networks like ARB and OP continue to divert users, transaction volume, and capital, reducing the core narrative appeal of the "world computer"; On-chain activity and gas consumption are declining, ETH's deflationary logic is weakening, and fundamental support is insufficient.
4. Greater flexibility in linked downward movement
ETH trends are fully tied to Bitcoin's trend. Once BTC breaks below and declines, Ethereum's decline usually far exceeds Bitcoin's, and its bear market risk resistance is weaker than Bitcoin's.
5. Internal Negative Factors in the Foundation
The Ethereum Foundation is cutting its R&D budget and laying off staff, raising market concerns about slowing long-term technological iteration and continuously suppressing long-term capital confidence.
4. Three scenario simulations for the market outlook (1~4 week cycles)
1. Range-bound Volatility (72% highest probability)
The price moves back and forth between 1680~2000, then pulls back after a short-term rally to 2000, following Bitcoin's narrow range, with contract stop-loss sweeps back and forth, no one-sided trend.
Trigger conditions: The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, ETF capital inflows and outflows alternate, and no major policy positives.
2. Stage Rebound (23% Probability)
Volume has increased and it has held above the 2000 mark, with a rebound target of 2080~2317; Only if the Fed sends clear signals of rate cuts and Ethereum ETFs see large net inflows for several consecutive days will there be a chance to challenge the medium- to long-term bull-bear line at 2317.
3. Deep Breakout Downturn (5% Probability)
Bitcoin has broken below the key support at 60,000, Ethereum has simultaneously broken below the 1,680 support, testing the 1,385-level low, and is testing the $1,200 low in extreme conditions.
5. Core Risk Summary
1. Extremely high volatility risk: Ethereum's volatility is 1.5 times that of Bitcoin, and high-leverage contracts are prone to forced liquidation, with slight fluctuations that can wipe out the principal;
2. Trend reversal not yet achieved: Before the 200-day moving average at $2317 is held above the 200-day moving average, all gains are only considered technical corrections during a decline, not suitable for long-term heavy holding;
3. Legal red line: No domestic virtual currency trading channel is compliant, with bank cards frozen, platforms running away, and assets stolen making rights impossible to protect rights;
4. Counterfeit Attribute Risks: Consensus, institutional holdings, and liquidity are generally weaker than Bitcoin; bear market pullbacks are even greater, bottoming out cycles are longer.🚨 This might be the most misunderstood crypto protocol right now.
Most people think $FWA is just another NFT gambling app.
It isn't.
It's a carefully designed game where depositors, drawers, and the protocol all have different incentives—and that's exactly why it's generating serious revenue.
Here's how the machine actually works 👇
• Step 1: Deposit
You deposit an NFT from a supported collection (Punks, Azuki, Lil Pudgys, Art Blocks, etc.) and choose how much ETH to back it with. The protocol doesn't value your NFT—you decide the backing.
Depositors earn a share of every spin, plus FWA emissions. At current activity, many positions complete a full cycle in 11–17 hours, with depositors often getting their NFT back while collecting fees.
• Step 2: Draw
A player pays 0.117 ETH for a random draw.
The odds aren't equal—positions with lower ETH backing are selected much more often than heavily backed ones.
The appeal? A single spin can land an NFT worth several times the ticket price.
• Step 3: Settlement
The winner has three choices:
✅ Keep the NFT and the depositor receives 99% of their backing.
✅ Sell it back for 85% of the backing in ETH.
✅ Take that 85% as $FWA, which is bought from Uniswap instead of paid in ETH.
Most players choose the third option.
• Where the spin fee goes
The 0.117 ETH is split between:
• 1% to the protocol
• 5% to the largest backing in the pool
• ~94% shared equally across every active position—regardless of whether it's backed by 0.02 ETH or 5 ETH.
That's the key mechanic.
The reason it's working today is simple: many NFTs are backed with more ETH than their market value, so drawers usually take the ETH while depositors keep both their NFT and the accumulated fees.
It's an unusual incentive system—and so far, it's produced roughly $289K/day in protocol revenue.
#DailyOrbit #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its July interest rate decision. Currently, market divisions are significant: Mainstream economists unanimously expect rates to remain unchanged, but the probability of a rate hike in futures pricing has risen to 36%. The inflationary pressure from the price of 100 yuan oil has pushed rate hike suspense further, and three asset classes are expected to experience significant volatility. 🍁 Three decision scenarios, corresponding asset 🌿 trends: Rate unchanged + Hawkish speech. The Fed pauses rate hikes but emphasizes that oil prices are driving up inflation risks, leaving room for another rate hike in September, making it clear that high interest rates will persist long-term. 1. Crude oil: Slightly higher before pulling back. A temporary US-Iran ceasefire weakens geopolitical premiums, and combined with high interest rates suppressing global energy demand, oil prices struggle to hold above the 100-yuan mark, with overall prices fluctuating downward at high levels; $CL 2. Gold: Briefly pressured and pulled back. U.S. Treasury real yields are rising, the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold has increased, geopolitical risk aversion support is limited, and gold prices are fluctuating and weakening; $XAUT 3. Bitcoin, Ethereum: surged then retreated, abruptly halting the rebound. Interest-free crypto assets are most wary of long-term high interest rates, with funds continuously flowing into US Treasuries as a safe haven. The market only fluctuates in the short term, unable to break the upward trend. 🍃 $BTC $ETH Keeping rates unchanged + dovish rhetoric: The Fed acknowledges a steady decline in inflation, signaling the end of the year's rate hike cycle, and rate cut expectations returning to the market. The US dollar and US Treasury yields fell across the board: crude oil benefited from a continued upward trend in demand expectations; Gold has seen a steady rebound; Crypto circle#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, July 30, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Walsh at 2:30 AM.
📊 Market Expectations: A Rare "Big Split"
There is a rare divergence in market expectations for this decision:
· Economist Consensus (Hold Steady): A Bloomberg survey of 76 economists shows all respondents expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Among 104 economists surveyed by Reuters, 78 believe the rate will remain until December this year.
· Interest Rate Futures Market (Rising Hike Expectations): CME data shows the market's probability of a 25 basis point hike in July surged from 13% a week ago to 38%, currently holding around 36%.
🔥 Core Focus: The Real Risk Lies After "No Rate Hike"
PGIM's Chief U.S. Economist describes this meeting as "almost a 50-50 split." The real key is not the rate itself but Chair Walsh's wording at 2:30 AM:
· Hawkish Risk (If Wording is Hawkish): If the statement retains "inflation risks remain elevated," or emphasizes the potential spread of energy price shocks and the need for "additional policy tightening" — the market will reprice, possibly pressuring BTC.
· Dovish Possibility (If Inflation Slowdown is Acknowledged): If Walsh acknowledges falling oil prices and easing inflation pressures — $65,000 could become the new floor.
Additionally, Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Harker may vote against, advocating an immediate rate hike. Such dissent would be seen as a strong signal for a September hike.
⏰ Two More "Trials" the Same Night
At 8:30 PM that evening, the U.S. Q2 GDP preliminary data and June PCE inflation data will be released. These data will test the market's reaction to Walsh's speech.
💡 Impact on BTC
· The "Expectation Gap" is Key: Bitcoin trades not on "whether rates hike," but on the "expectation gap."
· Oil Prices Have Already "Defused the Bomb": Last week Brent crude briefly broke $100/barrel, but after rising expectations of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire over the weekend, oil prices plunged 5% on Monday to around $92. The biggest inflation risk has already been defused.
· Potential Volatility Direction: Dovish wording may push BTC to test the $67,000-$68,000 resistance zone; hawkish wording may trigger a pullback to $64,000 or lower. The options market already has large bullish bets on BTC surging to $72,000 post-FOMC. $BTC $ETH