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#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Many people are guessing whether to keep interest rates unchanged or raise them this time.
But I believe that more important than the results is the first set of monetary policy logic of the Warsh era.
During Powell's era, the market was accustomed to trading expectations ahead through speeches, dot plots, and forward-looking guidance; After Warsh took office, the biggest change was the weakening of forward-looking guidance, bringing the market back to a "data-driven policy" model.
This means that future market volatility may be even greater.
Because when central banks stop giving you answers in advance, asset prices can only be continuously repriced based on new economic data.
For BTC, the US AI sector, and risk assets, this is not just an interest rate meeting, but also a shift in market pricing mechanisms.
My trading philosophy has always been simple:
What you trade is not news, but how the market digests the news; What you trade is not the opinion, but the expectation of how things will change.
So for this meeting, I won't rush to predict directions, but will focus on three signals:
* How Warsh evaluates current inflation;
* Whether to continue to adhere to weakening forward-looking guidance;
* Will the market reprice liquidity expectations for the coming months as a result?
Real opportunities often come from the moment market perception shifts, not from the minute interest rates are announced. $ETH Is Changxin's IPO bad news for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron? #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
Short term, it's not bad news; long term, definitely yes!!
Today many are discussing Changxin's IPO surge, but I'm more concerned about another thing: will Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron lose sleep over this?
Changxin's IPO won't reshuffle the global DRAM market overnight. In the AI era, HBM remains the most profitable business for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, and Changxin still has a clear gap to close.
So in the next two to three years, their real competitors remain each other.
But the capital market looks to the future.
The large amount of funds raised by Changxin this time is not just for expanding production but also means more chips for future R&D investment, advanced processes, HBM, and other high-end storage fields.
If global storage competition used to be a "Three Kingdoms Kill" game,
it has now officially become "Three Kingdoms Kill + a rapidly upgrading new player."
I have always focused on Physical AI, so I pay special attention to the storage industry.
Because in the future, whether AI servers, robots, or autonomous driving, they all fundamentally rely on DRAM and HBM.
Whoever can capture the next generation of high-end storage will reap the biggest dividends from the next round of AI infrastructure.
So in my view, the greatest significance of Changxin's IPO is not how much it rose today, but that the global storage industry has for the first time seen a competitor truly worth Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron's long-term vigilance.
In the next three to five years, I won't change my judgment based on one company's stock price fluctuations, but I will keep watching one indicator:
When will Changxin truly enter the HBM market?
If that day comes, I believe the valuation logic of the global storage industry may be rewritten Guys, CVX rose 5.55% today, currently at $1.387, continuing to recover from the historical low of 1.04 in early July. The logic behind the rise: CVX automatically reinvested at 29% annualized, AbcCVX staking up to 2.5x bonus—staking yields have increased significantly, holders are incentivized to transfer tokens into locked, and the circulating market is passively tightened. Analysts clearly state: once the lock-up curve continues to climb, supply-side scarcity will first be reflected in prices. The total supply cap is 100 million, with a current circulating ratio of about 92%; The original unlock cycle for teams and early investors has ended, but the protocol will continue to slowly add new mints alongside LP mining. Key price levels: Resistance $1.40-$1.42 (break out to $1.45-$1.50), support $1.30-$1.33 (break to $1.20-$1.23). Risk: The sustainability of protocol returns depends on the stability of Curve's TVL, and whether the staking APR can be maintained is key. Recent key indicators to watch—staking APR trends and staking growth rate. For assets that have dropped over 97% from their ATH and whose fundamentals are improving, focusing on value lock growth and staking APR is more important than focusing on candlesticks. Personal market view analysis and market information compilation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $CVX #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon hold the AI narrative? $CRWD
Price action is trading around 185.57, holding above dynamic MA5 (184.49), while sitting below MA10 (190.08) and MA20 (193.27).
EP
183.00 - 185.50
TP
190.08
193.27
205.00
SL
179.00
Price pulled back significantly from its recent high of 219.18 and is attempting to bounce off lower support levels around 180.00. Reclaiming MA5 (184.49) provides initial signs of stabilization for a move toward MA10.
Let's go $CRWD
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch ₿ $BTC Volume Profile Update 📊
Is anyone still watching the volume profile? 👀
The $64K level where I mentioned taking profits was not random — it was the Point of Control (POC), the area with the highest traded volume in that range.
Combined with additional confluences, it provided a strong technical reaction zone. 🎯
Volume profile remains one of the most useful tools for identifying:
📌 High-interest price areas
📌 Key support & resistance zones
📌 Potential reaction levels
Price often respects where the most business was done.
Don’t just watch candles — understand where the volume is sitting.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Crypto📰 美伊谈霍尔木兹妥协！特朗普军事牌还攥着，BTC $65,382能冲吗？
事件概述
说白了就是，美国和伊朗正在接触，想把霍尔木兹海峡的通行问题谈拢。全球三分之一的海运石油从这过，谁控制了这里谁就掐住了能源命脉。但特朗普这边军事选项一直没拿掉，相当于一手谈一手亮剑。对币圈来说，至少双方在谈而不是直接开干，短期情绪上是好事。
深度解读
为什么这条新闻重要？
老铁们，霍尔木兹这事不是今天才有的。今年以来伊朗在该区域动作不断，市场一直在怕一个事：万一真封锁海峡，油价飙升，通胀反弹，美联储降息就彻底没戏了。降息预期一旦崩了，币圈流动性直接断崖。
现在美伊开始谈妥协方案，说明两边都不想真打。伊朗经济被制裁搞得够呛，美国也不想在大选年搞出中东全面战争。这是务实的信号。
讲真，今天盘面已经说话了。BTC回到$65,382涨了1.36%，ETH更猛直接$1,955.75涨了3.70%，资金在用脚投票。地缘风险降温 = 避险情绪回落 = 风险资产回暖，这条逻辑链很清晰。
但注意，特朗普说军事选项还在桌上。这不是废话，这是给谈判施压同时给自己留退路。如果谈崩了随时能升级。所以这个利好是有保质期的，别无脑冲。
对市场的影响
短期看，避险资金从黄金和美债里撤出来，部分会进风险资产。ETH今天3.70%的涨幅说明聪明钱已经在抢跑了，跑得比BTC还快，这通常意味着市场风险偏好在快速修复。
中期来看，如果谈判出实质进展，比如伊朗承诺不干扰航运，油价回落 → 通胀预期下降 → 降息预期回来 → 币圈迎来真正的喘息窗口。这条链路是通的，也是我在盯的主线。
但如果谈崩呢？说实话概率不高但不是零。特朗普的操作风格你们懂的，今天谈明天翻脸。真到那一步，BTC可能要回踩$62,000-63,000区间找支撑。
参考2020年初美伊那波冲突，BTC短线上下震荡超过5%，但地缘事件只是短期扰动，不改大趋势本质。这次大概率也是同款剧本——恐慌砸坑，然后V回来。
操作思路
🎯 影响预判
- 币种：BTC / ETH
- 方向：利多📈 预测涨
- 时长：BTC 12小时 / ETH 24小时
💡 短线思路很明确：别空。BTC回调到$63,500-64,000区间如果不破就是接货位，止损放$62,500下方。ETH今天这个走势非常有劲，站稳$1,955.75上方的话下一个目标直接看$2,000整数关口。但仓位控制在五成以内，谈判这东西一天一个说法，留好子弹防黑天鹅。
认同比特币这波反弹逻辑的，点个赞让我看看有多少人跟上节奏了
$BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH
#地缘政治
⚠️ 不构成投资建议，预测仅供参考This AGLD dish is literally the forgotten scraps in the kitchen, the plate has gone cold—but I smell the aroma of twice-cooked pork from the oven! 🔥 One-hour RSI at 35.66, just like the precise final three seconds of low-temperature slow cooking; if it overheats, the meat gets tough. The lower Bollinger Band at 0.1477 is like the cutting board, slippery; the four-hour lower band at 0.1457 is the non-slip mat on the prep table—the market's main players are crouching by the stove, sneaking your stop-loss orders!
The main course (major coins) is like overnight broth now, steady but no surprises; this AGLD dish "Ginger and Scallion Stir-fried Liver and Kidney"—price dropped 2.11%, but the KDJ (here referring to RSI) at 35.66 is like the green stage before chili is fried in oil, it only smells good after stir-frying. Entry at 0.1431 is like the sliced kidney flowers that need to be quickly tossed in the wok; the first target 0.1563 is the crispness after being blanched, the second target 0.1580 is the final hot oil poured on, sizzling. Stop-loss at 0.1275 is like the wet cloth under your cutting board—never let blood water touch the spicy wok.
Spiciness? This time I only added "mild spice"—leverage up to 1.5x, position size 5% of total funds, like sprinkling a pinch of Sichuan peppercorn powder, fragrant but not spicy. The four-hour Bollinger upper band at 0.1580 is the pot rim, the spatula is too lazy to touch it, it's hot to the hand. Remember: RSI 1D is still at 41.94, like ribs marinated overnight but not fully flavored yet, wait for the hourly chart to turn before turning up the heat.
I'm ready to put this dish in the wok, but a reminder to everyone—the jar of extra spicy chili is always on the counter, whether you take it or not depends on how steady your hand is.Intraday high of 3.76U, intraday low of 3.3U, current price 3.5u, maximum 24-hour drop of 11.2%; The entire line has broken below the 3.5U support level, leading to a pullback and recovery, with strong bullish support. Five Core Bearish Logic for the July 27 Pullback 1. Short-term speculative heat completely faded, pure sentiment rally without fundamental support (core trigger). The previous day's rally relied entirely on overseas crypto bloggers announcing orders to attract retail investors chasing the highs. On July 27, with no cooperation or version updates, the influencer traffic heat quickly faded, and incremental funds instantly stopped. The project relies solely on a dance mining narrative, with stagnant user growth and no real token consumption scenarios, losing buying support and causing a decline. 2. High-level whales concentrate profit-taking, low liquidity amplifies pullback Liquidity accounts for less than 14%, while the top ten whales hold over 65% of circulating shares, leaving ample room for unrealized gains after rallying. Large players concentrated large selling, weak order depth, and a small number of sell orders could quickly break through key support levels, triggering panic and follow-selling among retail investors, creating a short-term stampede market. 3. Negative IP copyright continues to ferment, market trust declines. The dance IP copyright holder publicly clarified that it has not reached an official cooperation with the BEAT project. The project's false advertising narrative has been exposed, investors are worried about future project delistings and rights protection risks, and many holders panicked and reduced their positions and exited, further intensifying selling pressure. 4. Token long-term unlock expectations suppress, funds hedge long-term inflation risk. The market pre-priced future large-value token unlocks, with community and team shares released linearly over four years, long-term#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
ChangXin Technology IPO: Under the AI computing power wave, a domestic variable emerges in the storage sector
While Google, Microsoft, and Meta are all revealing their AI capital expenditures, the storage sector welcomes a heavyweight player: ChangXin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, with a first-day market value surpassing 3.3 trillion, becoming an unignorable "fourth pole" in the global DRAM market.
The AI boom has driven hype around computing power, servers, and optical modules, but ultimately cannot bypass the underlying storage chips. ChangXin's listing precisely adds the most critical domestic variable to the global storage landscape in the AI era.
The AI-driven storage market surge, ChangXin capitalizes on a differentiated dividend
In this round of AI computing power explosion, the first beneficiaries were HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with Samsung and SK Hynix earning huge profits and shifting capacity toward high-end HBM.
However, demand for general-purpose DRAM is also growing—basic memory needs for servers, consumer electronics, and automotive electronics continue to rise. After the three giants moved capacity upward, a supply gap appeared in the mid-tier market. ChangXin accurately positioned itself in this window, rapidly scaling DDR5 and LPDDR5 products, with market share climbing from under 3% to 7.67%, and performance booming accordingly.
This is equivalent to the leading players competing for the high-end, high-margin market, leaving the mid-tier cake to ChangXin—an opportunity granted by the times.
66.6 billion yuan fundraising, expansion + R&D, targeting the next round of competition
This IPO raised up to 66.6 billion yuan, with core investments in two directions:
1. Expansion of 12-inch wafer fabs: continue increasing general DRAM capacity to capture more mid-tier market share, aiming for over 10% market share by 2026;
2. R&D of advanced processes and 3D DRAM: unable to adopt EUV due to equipment constraints, focusing instead on breakthrough 3D DRAM differentiation technology, attempting to overtake on next-generation storage technology to meet future AI storage demands.
Chain impact on AI tech stocks
Upstream equipment and materials chain: ChangXin's expansion will drive orders for domestic semiconductor equipment and material suppliers, further strengthening the domestic substitution logic;
Downstream server/terminal manufacturers: having an additional local supplier means more controllable storage procurement costs and a safer supply chain, a long-term positive for domestic cloud providers and consumer electronics manufacturers;
Storage cycle fluctuations: new capacity deployment may intensify price competition in general DRAM, potentially increasing industry cycle volatility, a double-edged sword for pure storage stocks.
To conclude honestly:
In the AI era, storage is as fundamental as computing power infrastructure. ChangXin's listing is not an end but the beginning of domestic storage's participation in global AI industry competition. The gate for high-end HBM is not yet passed, but at least it is now at the table.The divergence between BTC and cryptocurrencies has intensified, and market breadth has been compressed to extreme levels
Has the current market entered a structural phase where only a few stocks remain capable of outperforming?
The original data shows that among the 100 altcoins tracked, the ratio of rises/decreases is only 0.3, meaning that for every rise equals about three falls. Only 8 stocks showed positive volume divergence, while the remaining 92 stocks were in a state of continuous outflow. These 8 are JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP, ZKP, while 92 brands including BEAT, EDGE, COAI, TRUMP, are generally under pressure. The data itself is a static cross-section, without specifying a time window, but it is sufficient to reveal the current pricing structure.
- Core changes in market structure: altcoins are experiencing net capital outflows with a very narrow width, indicating that incremental funds have not spread but are concentrated in a very small number of assets. This environment usually means that if BTC and ETH fail to drive a rebound in overall sentiment, the tail risk of the altcoin sector may be further released.
- Transmission logic: If BTC maintains volatility or moves slightly higher, it may further absorb limited risk appetite, causing counterfeit funds to continue concentrating on a few high-momentum targets, forming a "winner-takes-all" pattern. If ETH cannot break through key resistance, the logic of counterfeit rotation becomes even harder to hold.
- Bullish path: If BTC breaks out of the recent volatility range and increases volume, liquidity may spill over to ETH and the above eight bullish stocks, forming a local rebound. The condition is that BTC's daily closing holds steady and is accompanied by amplified net inflows into spot ETFs.
- Bearish risk: If BTC pulls back or moves sideways, the overall altcoins will continue to be under pressure, and the above 92 stocks may accelerate their decline. The risk signal is that BTC has not broken through previous highs, and the altcoin up/down ratio remains below 0.5.
Conclusion: Currently, market breadth does not support comprehensive long buying of counterfeit stocks; only a few stocks have independent momentum. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether BTC can effectively break out and whether ETH shows signs of following the rally, in order to judge whether the narrow structure will spread or converge.
Risk warning: Width data is a lagging indicator; extreme values may signal reversals but may also persist. Cashtags: $BTC $ETH $JELLYJELLY $ZKP $SLX。#财报观察员：Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Stabilize the AI Narrative? Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon Report Next Week—Is the AI Narrative Losing Ground? Seven Tech Giants Lost $800 Billion Overnight, Crypto AI Concepts Kneel First in Respect
Google just raised its 2026 capital expenditure cap by another $15 billion, with Q2 free cash flow turning negative at $5.9 billion. As a result, on July 23, the seven tech giants evaporated $797 billion in a single day, with Google down 7% and Tesla down 14.5%.
Next week, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will release their earnings. The market isn’t just looking at whether revenue beats expectations, but at a single yardstick: You’re spending $190 billion/$145 billion/$200 billion a year—how much gross revenue is Azure/AWS/advertising AI actually bringing back?
Here are the three companies’ key cards:
• Microsoft: FY2026 CapEx guidance around $190 billion, Azure growth still 39%-40%, AI annualized ARR $37 billion (doubling year-over-year), but CapEx-to-revenue ratio is already three times that of the last cloud cycle, with free cash flow forecast cut in half to $25.3 billion
• Meta: CapEx raised to $125 billion–$145 billion, full suite DAP growth hitting the lowest since 2021, AI spending mainly on recommendation ads and self-developed chips, monetization path the most unclear
• Amazon: AWS growth back to 28% (highest in nearly 3 years), but quarterly CapEx $43.2 billion, up 85% year-over-year, annual around $200 billion, free cash flow forecast to remain negative for the full year
The logic is simple:
Chip stocks (NVDA/MU) sell the shovels; cloud giants use the shovels. Now the shovels are selling like crazy, but the users’ cash flow is bleeding—this is the real pricing behind Microsoft -2.3%, Amazon -4.2%, Meta -3.8% on July 24.
What this means for crypto:
Recently, $BTC has been stable, and AI Agent/DePIN tokens have been flying by riding the US stock AI hype, essentially an overflow of the big brothers’ narrative premium. If the big three continue to cut valuations after earnings, the first wave of AI clone concepts to be killed will be those with no revenue, pure narrative, and high FDV. Conversely, if the three companies’ guidance shows Azure/AWS growth plus Copilot paid user numbers holding up, capital will flow back from chips to platform stocks, risk appetite will return, benefiting BTC and mainstream first, and AI clones will get a second wind.
My own market sense:
If BTC doesn’t break 62k and ETH doesn’t break 1600, don’t rush to cut AI clones; but if any of the three continue to raise CapEx or give weak cash flow guidance, don’t get stubborn—delever first. Changxin, creating the impossible in A-shares
122.1 billion
Increase of 471%
Market value successfully tops A-shares
【Pump, Engine】
Short-term withdrawal of some market liquidity, putting pressure on storage concept stocks and some tech stocks
Medium to long-term injection of certain orders and a new valuation anchor into the domestic storage industry chain
Other information
Status:
Changxin is China's largest and most comprehensively laid out integrated DRAM storage chip company, covering DDR4 and DDR5. By Q4 2025, it is projected to be first in China and fourth globally, with a 7.67% share.
However, the top three globally—SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron—account for over 90%, and Changxin remains a pursuer.
"Financial backers":
The top five shareholders are mainly Hefei, Anhui state-owned assets, and the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II. Industrial capital includes Gigadevice, Midea, Xiaomi, Alibaba, and also the National Adjustment Fund.
A trinity of state-owned, industrial chain, and market-oriented capital supports the flagship example of independent and controllable domestic storage.
⚠️ A market value of 3.31 trillion corresponds to revenue of 110 to 120 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, with cumulative losses just expected to be wiped out.
The surge on the first day is more driven by scarcity and the narrative of domestic substitution sentiment pricing rather than current fundamentals.
The milestone significance outweighs performance fulfillment; the real focus is whether it can catch up in market share and technological gap.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 [Graphic Observation | Central Bank Weekly Temperature] At 13:15 Beijing time, Jin Shi Article focuses on: The Fed's decision-making has shifted from "chair guidance" to "member games," making consensus extremely difficult.
Background summary: The market no longer believes in "verbal inflation fights," and U.S. Treasuries are forcing the Federal Reserve to reveal its cards. Analysts have two scenarios: one is that the committee collectively pushes for rate hikes, and Wash agrees with the trend; Second, Wash's current leverage to hold on for now, but future rate hikes are still needed.
Cross-asset snapshot: Spot gold 4,094.57 (+1.02%); EUR/USD 1.1406 (+0.33%); USD/JPY 163.56 (-0.18%). Gold, the euro, and the yen can simultaneously reflect interest rate expectations, dollar strength, and safe-haven demand, making them suitable external thermometers for crypto risk appetite.
Verification point: If gold strengthens and the US dollar strengthens in tandem, risk assets are more likely to be under pressure; If the dollar retreats and US stocks recover, BTC/ETH is more likely to follow the recovery in risk appetite.
Risk warning: If central bank caliber, PCE/CPI, or employment data exceed expectations, the above cross-asset observations may need to be reassessed. For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.#Gate.io Temp Worker
Gate's official team continues to claim that Robin, who connects with our ALD community, is an impersonator and a scammer. Here are several core questions that cannot be avoided. Please answer them directly:
1. If Robin is merely an external scammer and not a Gate staff member, an unauthorized impostor, what right does he have to complete the full Gate Alpha listing process and successfully list ALD tokens on the platform?
Gate listing uses an internal multi-layer approval mechanism, making it impossible for outsiders to operate on their own. If outsiders can casually impersonate employees to complete token listings, does this prove that Gate's internal permission management has completely gone out of control, allowing anyone to impersonate staff and lead project listings?
2. We will pay the USDT and ALD corresponding to the listed currency in full according to the matchmaker's requirements. If Robin is considered personal fraud, why did the scammer guide us to transfer funds that ultimately flow into the Gate system, and why did the token launch as scheduled?
Ordinary people commit fraud with the goal of embezzling funds without authorization; Moreover, the successful listing of tokens after this settlement is completely inconsistent with the logic of ordinary scammers.
3. Gate cannot simply use the phrase "the intermediary is a scammer" to unilaterally tear up the token listing agreement reached by both parties.
The successful launch of the token on Gate Alpha is an objective established fact; trading behavior and fulfillment results are real. They cannot enjoy the benefits paid by the project party and refuse to fulfill all agreed obligations on the grounds of "personnel impersonation."
4. We hope Gate will publicly disclose the complete approval process for the ALD launch of Gate Alpha and the internal handling staff.
If Robin has no official authorization, please explain: How did an external impersonator bypass all internal risk controls and approvals to complete the entire listing process? Does this mean there is a major vulnerability in Gate Alpha's listing channel, and all project teams face the risk of being lured by fake personnel?$BSP
Price action is trading around 34.82, holding above dynamic MA5 (34.29), MA10 (33.80), and MA20 (33.38).
EP
34.00 - 34.80
TP
36.00
38.87
42.00
SL
32.50
Price has constructed a strong higher-low structure off the 30.04 swing low and reclaimed all dynamic moving averages. Continued hold above MA5 (34.29) keeps price primed to retest the 38.87 high.
Let's go $BSP
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch #AIEarningsWatch #财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? A new round of US stock earnings season is underway, with earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon being released one after another. The market is no longer blindly chasing AI concepts. Funds are asking the question: With sustained massive investment, can AI deliver tangible returns? Can the three giants still hold onto the main theme of AI growth?
First, clarify the differences in AI monetization paths among the three companies
Microsoft: The commercialization path is the clearest
Relying on the Azure cloud + Copilot ecosystem, AI annualized revenue continues to rise, with mature implementation for enterprise clients. The advantage lies in deep integration into the software ecosystem, where AI services can be directly embedded into existing products. The hidden danger lies in the continued increase in computing power infrastructure, with capital expenditures rising and continuously squeezing profit margins.
Meta: AI-empowered advertising is the main battleground
Relying on large models to optimize ad placements and boost content traffic, advertising revenue continues to recover. Self-developed chips reduce computing power costs but lack external cloud computing power sales. AI revenue heavily depends on the prosperity of the advertising market, and the potential for this sector is relatively limited.
Amazon: AWS computing power + self-developed chips dual strategy
AWS is the core supplier of enterprise AI computing power, and orders for Trainium's self-developed chips are steadily increasing. The advantage is a large customer base; The pressure comes from fluctuations in retail business profits, with large amounts of capital continuously invested in data center construction, making it difficult to see rapid profit margin improvements in the short term.
Core contradiction: speed of burning money VS speed of making money
Recently, Google's earnings report has sounded the alarm: a significant increase in AI capital spending, negative free cash flow, revenue beating expectations, and stock prices remain under pressure. Now that Wall Street has uniformly raised its standards, pure revenue growth is no longer enough to attract capital.
Next, the market will focus on two key indicators:
1. Can the growth rate of AI-related business revenue keep pace with the pace of capital expansion;
2. Whether management will raise the full-year capital expenditure guidance again.
Key signals extending to the crypto market
1. Tech giants are the global indicator of risk appetite. If the financial report proves that AI commercialization continues to materialize and sentiment in growth sectors warms up, it will indirectly benefit risk assets like BTC and ETH;
2. If multiple companies collectively raise spending and earnings guidance falls short of expectations, the market will re-question the long-term return rate of AI, valuations of growth stocks will come under pressure, and high-volatility assets will be suppressed simultaneously.
My view: Sector differentiation is now a done deal. Companies that can steadily convert AI into revenue and cash flow will continue to see valuations supported; Targets that only invest and cash out slowly will see their valuations continue to be digested. This round of earnings reports cannot directly kick off a full-blown bull market, but it will set the tone for the technology sector's style in the second half of the year.
What do you think: if the financial reports of the three major players fall short of expectations, will the rebound of mainstream coins be further suppressed?ANGRYMARK!💸 《资本地图｜Capital Map》 一张持仓图，看懂一种资本配置逻辑。 Appaloosa同时持有AI平台、芯片制造与电力资产，但真正拉开收益差距的，是Micron、SK海力士和SanDisk代表的存储周期。 David Tepper是美国知名对冲基金经理、Appaloosa Management创始人，长期以逆向投资和重仓周期性资产闻名。 他值得关注，不只是因为过往回报出色，更因为他的组合经常同时体现高集中持仓、宏观判断和严格的风险控制。观察Tepper的持仓变化，可以帮助投资者理解：顶级资金如何在高波动市场中选择少数高确信度机会。 Carbon Finance发布的David Tepper持仓图，记录的是Appaloosa在2025年第一季度末的组合。当时，最大的扇区是一笔名义价值占比30.03%的SPYX看跌期权，其后是$BABA 阿里巴巴、拼多多、$AMZN 亚马逊、京东和$META Meta。图中的期权按标的资产名义价值计算，不能直接理解为基金真的拿出30%的资金做空市场。 这Today is July 27, and this week is the heaviest in the past few months, with four tech giants plus the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision all packed together. The market direction basically depends on these five days.
First, let's lay out the schedule clearly.
Microsoft and Meta are both set for after-market on July 29.
Apple and Amazon are pushed to after-market on the 30th, with an FOMC interest rate decision result coming out in the early morning of July 30 (Beijing time). Currently, the federal funds rate is held at 3.5% to 3.75%.
The market generally expects no change this time, and the dot plot from the end of last year suggests there is only about one rate cut left for the whole year.
In other words, hoping for the Fed to ease to boost valuations is basically a dead end this year.
The real powder keg is a number in the earnings reports: capital expenditure.
These four plus Apple are expected to have combined AI capital expenditures in 2026 exceeding $600 billion, more than 60% higher than last year's historical peak. This scale is already equivalent to the entire annual GDP of Singapore.
The problem is that spending is getting fiercer. Microsoft's 2026 fiscal year capital expenditure guidance is about $190 billion, far above analyst expectations; Meta has raised its guidance to start at $115 billion, nearly double last year. Barclays estimates this will shrink its free cash flow by nearly 90% year-over-year this year.
The market's attitude was already previewed last week. Google's earnings were clearly not bad, but because of the marginal increase in capital expenditure, its stock was still hammered down 4 to 5 points.
This signal is very clear: spending more on AI no longer automatically equals a positive. Investors are starting to pressure these giants to explain when returns will come. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index is heading toward its worst monthly performance since 2022, with money fleeing to industrial and energy stocks in the real economy.
So how to view this week?
Don't focus too much on whether revenue and EPS beat expectations—that's almost guaranteed.
The real things to watch are whether Azure and AWS cloud growth is accelerating, where the free cash flow turning point is, and whether management dares to cap capital expenditures.
Whoever can convincingly turn spending into returns will hold firm; those who can't, like Google's 5% drop last week, is just a trailer. #USStockSuperTopic The crypto community is constantly discussing US stocks, macro policies, and liquidity, leaving people dizzy. I simply compared the data on Bitcoin and US M2 money supply and reached a conclusion:
Setting aside short-term fluctuations, the overall U.S. money supply has been rising over the long term, and the price center of Bitcoin $BTC is steadily rising, indicating a long-term interlocking relationship between the two.
After bottoming out in 2023, M2's year-on-year growth rate gradually rebounded and has now returned to a positive growth range of 5.6%. In the short term, M2 cannot accurately predict Bitcoin's price movements, but over a longer cycle, the tightness of dollar liquidity directly affects the long-term valuation of scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is not just a highly volatile speculative asset; in large cycles, its value storage logic against fiat currency oversupply and its binding to global liquidity are far deeper than people imagine.$ETH is showing notable relative strength today.
With Ethereum gaining roughly 3× more than BTC over the past 24 hours, the move deserves attention. The easing of geopolitical tensions has improved overall risk sentiment, but ETH's outperformance appears to be driven more by positioning and capital rotation than by a new fundamental narrative.
Historically, capital often rotates into ETH before the broader altcoin market catches momentum. Whether this is the start of that familiar pattern or simply a short-term catch-up move remains to be seen.
The macro backdrop still calls for caution.
Stronger-than-expected jobless claims data gives the Fed less urgency to cut rates, keeping real yields elevated and limiting the liquidity boost that risk assets typically benefit from.
On top of that, Google and Tesla earnings could have a meaningful impact on broader market sentiment. Any disappointment from major tech names could weigh on the current risk-on environment.
For now, the bounce is encouraging—but I'd prefer to see more confirmation before calling it a lasting trend.
Just my market view, not financial advice.
#DailyOrbit
#CXMTMemoryIPO
#FOMCRateWatch #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
At 2 AM Thursday, FOMC. The data before this meeting is already conflicting.
First, look at the CME FedWatch data: a 63.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July, and a 36.3% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Two weeks ago, this number was only about 10%. It's not the market guessing wildly; oil prices and employment data together have pushed the rate hike expectations back up.
On July 24, US initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest since 1969. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil briefly hit $100 per barrel intraday.
Waller has abolished forward guidance, and the market has lost the Fed's "signpost." Previously, the market could judge direction from statement wording; now it can only guess from data and officials' speeches.
The three key things to watch in this meeting are:
First, will there be a hike in July? A 36.3% probability means "hike" is no longer an option to ignore. Although the mainstream expectation is still to hold steady, this probability itself shows the market is repricing.
Second, what about September? If there is no hike in July but the statement is hawkish, the expectation of a September hike will further heat up. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has already exceeded 55%.
Third, Waller's wording. Will he remove "accommodative stance"? Will he mention inflation risks? Will he give any directional hints? Since taking office, he has refused to give clear guidance; whether he breaks the silence this time is the biggest variable.
The drop in oil prices has indeed eased inflation concerns in the short term, but the labor market remains strong. The good news is oil prices have fallen about 15% from their peak, giving the Fed some room to observe. The bad news is employment data is too strong, making it difficult for the Fed to send dovish signals when the labor market is this hot.
For the crypto market, the most critical thing is not "whether to hike," but "what signals are released."
No hike but hawkish → market prices in a September hike early → limited short-term rebound. Hike → directly tells the market inflation is tougher than expected → risk assets under pressure. No hike and dovish → short-term rebound, but Waller's style most likely won't do this.
Uncertainty itself is the biggest risk. A Fed that gives no signposts turns every rate decision into a guessing game. The answer will be revealed at 2 AM Thursday.
$BTC $ETH $QQQ 2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapsed, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapsed, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC $63,000, bottoming out in 2-3 weeks?
Every time, the market says, "This time is different."
Every time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: the market caps of BTC in the first three rounds were $2B, $20B, and $300B respectively. Now it's $1.3T.
Same rules, but on a larger scale. $BTC $ETH $SOL#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This week is definitely the "super eye of the storm" on the macro front!
My judgment: The Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting early Thursday morning will directly determine whether the market's main theme for the next month is "inflation trading" or "recession panic."
Reason one: The dual game of geopolitics and employment is reshaping expectations. The ceasefire expectation between the US and Iran has caused oil prices $CL to drop sharply, directly easing inflation concerns caused by rising energy prices; but initial jobless claims last week were only 187,000, below expectations, indicating the labor market remains very resilient, so the Fed dares not ease easily.
Verifiable data: The crypto fear and greed index has risen back to 30, a relatively high level within the month; meanwhile, BTC has reclaimed the $65,000 mark, which is a direct vote of market confidence in a "soft landing."
My trading approach: Before 2 a.m. Thursday, I will reduce contract positions, only keeping a base position to observe. If Powell's speech leans hawkish, there will likely be a spike, which is a good opportunity to buy back chips rather than chase the rally.
Reason two: The capital expenditures of tech giants are another hidden bomb. Earnings reports from XMSFT, Meta, and XAMZN are concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday; where they spend their money (AI infrastructure or buybacks) directly affects the Nasdaq and crypto market sentiment linkage.
Verifiable data: The fifth round of about $900 million creditor compensation from FTX will start on July 31. Although the market has digested part of this potential selling pressure, it remains a Damocles sword hanging overhead.
My trading approach: Focus on the market reaction after earnings releases. If tech stocks plunge but BTC holds up, it indicates funds are seeking a safe haven, and I will try to go long on the "digital gold" attribute; otherwise, I will follow the US stock rhythm to short.
One last reminder: There are too many variables this week—oil prices, employment, earnings, and rate decisions overlapping—volatility will be very high. Don't bet on a one-sided move; good defense is the key to surviving until next week. The #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 FOMC meeting is the core event in the market this week.
Oil prices retreating, employment data remains strong, and earnings season is progressing in tandem—these variables will be concentrated in pricing this week. Oil prices have fallen from above $100 to around $90, inflation concerns have eased, risk appetite has improved, BTC has climbed back above $65,000, and ETH has risen above $1,900.
Earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will be concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, with capital expenditure guidance being the market's focus. If capital expenditure remains high, AI-related assets may find support. FTX's fifth round of creditors' compensation of about $900 million will begin on July 31, and the flow of this fund is also worth watching.
The Fed's rate decision itself is unlikely to be unexpected, but the key lies in the wording of the post-meeting statement regarding inflation and employment. If the stance is hawkish, the market may reprice rate hike expectations; If dovish, risk appetite may further recover.
$BTC $ETH $CORE The project side keeps making empty promises and bluffing every day, but now they never mention the four truths behind the buyback:
1. The original buyback was just empty promises of acquiring new customers from start to finish, completely failing to establish a solid foundation
At the end of last year, the official heavily promoted its 2026 core strategy: all SatPay and LST staking fees would be used to buy back CORE in the secondary market, creating a value flywheel.
But now, the current situation is completely unable to fulfill the promise:
1. Core cash flow product SatPay continues to be delayed
Originally planned for global commercial and physical debit cards in the first half of the year, only scheduled beta testing has been available today, with no large-scale merchant or offline payment scenarios, no stablecoin fee revenue, and no profit to buyback.
The so-called Bitcoin Power Grid is just a packaging term for its own ecosystem, not an external partnership, with no new paying users and zero continuous cash flow across the entire ecosystem.
2. No regular large-scale buyback records can be found on-chain
Formal BTCFi project buyback meetings publicly disclose wallet addresses and monthly buyback amounts, but Core never dares to publicly disclose buyback accounts; There are only a few small market-making orders on the board, not the promised revenue buybacks. Even if a small amount of coins are bought back, they won't be burned. In the end, they flow back into the foundation pool, and can still be sold off later, making it impossible to achieve price support through deflation.#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
No one expected that the true new stock king of the A-share market would be born today!
Changxin Technology's IPO completely blew up the scene, with a market value reaching 3 trillion.
It decisively crushed ICBC, thoroughly rewriting the landscape of domestic storage!
I also tried to participate in the new stock lottery, but was reminded that my balance was insufficient.
With Changxin successfully landing on the STAR Market, the global DRAM market officially enters an era of competition among China, the US, and South Korea. The long-standing monopoly of SanDisk $SNDK, Hynix $SKHYNIX, and Micron $MU has been completely broken. Changxin holds a steady 8% market share, ranking fourth globally, and its share continues to rise.
Looking purely at fundamentals and valuation, Changxin is really attractive. Its performance will explode in the first half of 2026, with revenue and net profit growth all increasing by multiple times. A 25x PE ratio is basically a bargain in today's tech stocks and is seriously undervalued compared to overseas storage giants.
However! The more the public is celebrating, the more I want to pour cold water. A good company does not mean you can blindly buy it now.
Personally, I think there are two points to pay attention to:
First, the chip structure is extremely poor. Nearly ten million people participated in the new stock lottery, with over seven million retail investors winning shares, resulting in extremely dispersed chips. It's all retail investors holding together, with no major holders locking in shares. After the price surges, they will only sell off against each other, unable to withstand disagreements.
Second, the circulating shares and unlocking risks are huge. On the first day, only 6.73% of shares are circulating, and there are no price limits for the first five days. Small caps are easily driven crazy by sentiment, but the subsequent unlocking pressure is enormous. Referencing SMIC's trend, after the IPO surge, there is a long-term downward drift caused by dispersed chips and unlocking sell-offs.
In summary:
Changxin is definitely a top-tier asset, supported by domestic storage substitution and a super cycle, with a definite long-term market.
But in the short term, sentiment has already exhausted all the positives. This is a sentiment peak, not a value peak. The IPO will inevitably see intense turnover. Ordinary investors must not buy at the high point. Patience to wait for a pullback to digest chips is the safest approach.
Looking at today's market, $BTC and $ETH are slowly climbing, the green margin has already been liquidated. It is recommended not to short and not to fight against the main trend!$SHIB This wave is like a whale selling—no one pays attention or plays. With 20 million yuan in in, the market is boosted. Once retail investors enter and take over, they keep selling, with a total of about 100 million yuan sold and exited. Now that the hype is high and there are too many long orders, if he wants to push the market up again, it's not about 20 million; he should have left. The current hourly trading volume is only a little over 200,000, so there's no reason to push it too riskily or the front end is too heavy. It's not easy to take off
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
$BTC $ETH $BTC did not fall following BitMart's shutdown news, but trending posts on the square have already labeled the event as a "chain of exchange closures." The official announcement confirmed a phased withdrawal, and withdrawals are still open.
The timeline is also clear: new registrations, deposits, and new orders will stop on July 26, trading will stop on August 26, and the official shutdown will begin on January 31, 2027.
The platform's own risks are indeed quickly priced in, with the BitMart page showing BMX prices falling by about 55%. However, BTC has still risen 1.25% in the past 24 hours, while contract open interest has dropped by about 2.8%. This is more like an orderly exit by a single platform combined with deleveraging, and there hasn't yet been a market-wide run.
Next, watch whether BitMart withdrawals remain smooth and whether BTC can remain stable as holdings decline. If the former shows abnormalities and the latter weakens simultaneously, it indicates that risks are beginning to spill over into the market.
#BTC #BitMart#FOMCRateWatch FOMC decision drops Thursday 2am Beijing time, and the macro setup heading in couldn't be more mixed 🎯
Oil sharply lower on US-Iran ceasefire hopes — takes the energy inflation pressure off. Jobless claims 187K, below expectations — labor market still holding up. One dove, one hawk, both landing this week 🤔
Same week: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings Wednesday and Thursday with capex guidance as the main event. And FTX's fifth round of $900M creditor repayments kicks off July 31 — $900M hitting the market while everything else is in motion 👀
BTC back above $65K to open the week. Fear & Greed recovered to 30 — highest this month. Sentiment shifted fast 📈
FOMC + three mega-cap earnings + FTX repayments all in the same window. This is the kind of week where you either ride the wave or get caught on the wrong side of it 🫠
Oil down, jobs resilient, BTC warming up — do you think Warsh leans dovish or hawkish Thursday? And are you reducing risk into this stacked week or staying in? 👇近期RWA现实资产代币化热度不断扩散，但资金不再只盯着耳熟能详的标的，开始挖掘面向传统金融、实体企业的底层公链。沉寂许久的$HBAR 走出大幅反弹行情。和主打散户生态的公链不同，HBAR的核心受众是机构，赛道逻辑具备独特性，今天好好拆解。 先说底层背景： 很多公链设计优先考虑散户交易、DeFi、Meme玩法，而Hedera（HBAR）路线完全不一样，定位面向传统大企业、金融机构的商用公链。 网络转账速度快、手续费极低，治理由多家跨国企业联盟共同参与，合规框架相比多数公链更加完善。项目长期深耕机构市场，重心承接债券、不动产、供应链金融这类实体资产上链需求，是RWA赛道重要基础设施之一。 过去很长一段时间市场目光集中在AI、MEME热点，偏向To B端的HBAR缺少短线炒作话题，长期横盘被资金遗忘。 当下盘面现状： 随着RWA叙事不断升温，板块赚钱效应扩散。资金开始高低切换，寻找长期横盘、估值还未充分修复的二线公链。 HBAR结束漫长区间震荡，迎来放量拉升。市场开始重视一条关键逻辑：传统金融想要入局链上资产，大概率优先选择合规属性更强、企业联盟背书的底层网络。 本轮上涨核心逻辑拆解： 越来Don't just focus on AI in the US stock market tonight.
What could truly change the strength of sectors is the gap in crude oil.
WTI crude oil has quickly fallen from around $90 to $84.8, as the market is giving back the risk premium caused by geopolitical conflicts.
This has three layers of impact on the US stock market tonight.
1. The energy sector faces profit-taking pressure
Short-term resistance for crude oil is between $85.5 and $86.
As long as the price does not close back above $86, the bullish logic for energy stocks will weaken, and $XOM and $CVX are likely to see profit-taking at high levels.
If crude oil falls below $84, the next support is around $83.
2. The airline and transportation sectors see cost relief
The most direct beneficiaries of falling oil prices are airlines.
But even if $UAL strengthens in pre-market, I wouldn’t chase it right at the open. The key is to observe whether it can stay stronger than the broader market in the first 30 minutes after the open, while oil prices remain below $85.5.
Only if oil prices fail to rebound above $86 will the relative advantage of the airline sector be easier to sustain.
3. Tech stocks still depend on three events this week
This week includes the Federal Reserve meeting, inflation data, and major tech company earnings.
The drop in oil prices helps ease inflation pressure but does not directly translate to a broad tech stock rally. The real drivers remain interest rate expectations and earnings guidance.
Key observations for tonight:
Crude oil resistance: $85.5–$86
First support: $84
Second support: $83
Logic invalidation: regaining and holding above $86
If crude oil stays below $85.5, energy is weak, while airlines and consumer sectors relatively benefit.
If crude oil regains and holds above $86, the sector rotation logic for tonight needs to be reassessed. #CXMTMemoryIPO CXMT (ChangXin Memory) just debuted on China's STAR Market at a 3.31 trillion yuan valuation — now the largest stock on China's A-shares 🔥
The global memory story just got a third player. A week ago: Anthropic signed chip supply deals with Samsung and SK Hynix, Nvidia invested in Korea's Naver. AI orders were concentrating around the Korean duo. Now CXMT's listing brings Chinese capacity officially into the pricing system 👀
The timing is deliberate. KOSPI even rose 1.7%+ early morning then reversed — the market felt the new competition entering the room 📉
DRAM contract prices and expansion pace are now the two numbers to watch. More supply sources = potential pricing pressure on Samsung and SK Hynix's premium 🤔
Anthropic's orders went to Korea. A-share capital went to CXMT. Is there enough AI memory demand for three players to win — or does one get squeezed out as the market matures? 🫠
Does CXMT's entry actually reshape global DRAM pricing, or is this another domestic champion story that stays contained within China's market? And are you positioned in this trade anywhere — Korean ADRs, tokenized US chips, or A-shares? 👇Today, the entire tech circle and capital market focus is on Changxin Storage, which just debuted on the STAR Market.
The opening was explosive, soaring 471.59% compared to the 8.66 yuan issue price, with an opening price fixed at 49.5 yuan. The intraday highest increase once exceeded 530%, with extremely fierce battles between bulls and bears, a price difference of over 17 yuan, and a trillion-yuan market cap instantly formed. Single winning users earned over twenty thousand yuan per share.
This extreme profit effect has fully ignited the entire storage sector's heat.
But I noticed a very common misunderstanding.
The vast majority of retail investors only focus on the soaring market sentiment,
follow the hype shouting bull market and tenfold gains, but they can't distinguish the underlying logic of the storage track at all.
The companies casually mentioned daily like Changxin, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk
seem to all be storage companies, but in fact, their tracks are completely separate, their profit logics vastly different, and the benefiting market trends totally distinct.
Mindlessly mixing them together to follow speculation will most likely result in buying at the top.
Setting aside market heat, let's talk about the core industry fundamentals.
The storage industry has never been a single category; it is fundamentally divided into two major parts:
DRAM operating memory, which clears data when powered off, supporting phones, computers, and AI servers;
NAND flash storage, which retains data long-term, suitable for hard drives, USB drives, and memory cards.
The gap among all storage companies starts from these two categories, which is also the root cause of their different stock price trends and market logics.
Let's first talk about the market-exploding protagonist, Changxin Storage.
Many are misled by the IPO surge, mistakenly thinking it covers all storage dividends.
In reality, its business is extremely focused, deeply cultivating the DRAM memory track, and completely avoiding NAND flash.
As the only domestic IDM leader that has independently developed and produced DRAM chips, its core value is not about following AI hype,
but a solid domestic substitution logic.
In recent years, overseas giants have continuously cut general DRAM production, crazily shifting capacity to high-profit AI high-end HBM memory.
A large gap has appeared in global general memory capacity.
Changxin just fills this gap, supplying DDR5 and LPDDR5X in batches, steadily securing stable orders from consumer electronics and basic servers.
Here, I must warn everyone about the biggest pitfall.
Changxin currently does not have mass production capability for HBM; related products are still in the R&D sample delivery stage.
It cannot yet benefit from the most profitable and core HBM dividends in this AI storage boom.
Its rise logic is domestic substitution growth plus industry cycle resonance,
distinct from overseas storage giants violently boosted by AI, representing two completely different valuation systems.
Next, let's look at the most familiar SK Hynix.
It is the absolute core beneficiary of this AI storage market and the true track leader.
Unlike Changxin's single focus, Hynix runs dual lines, covering both DRAM and NAND.
Its real trump card is the monopolistic HBM high-bandwidth memory capacity.
Most of the HBM used in Nvidia's high-end AI graphics cards and AI servers comes from Hynix.
The extremely high premium and supply-demand imbalance have supported its super market performance over the past two years.
For Hynix, ordinary memory and flash business are just the basics.
The real driver of stock price and profit ceiling has always been HBM capacity and pricing.
This is the fundamental difference between it and Changxin: one benefits from domestic substitution, the other from AI high-end computing power dividends.
Next is Micron Technology.
As the only US original storage manufacturer, it is the most versatile yet unstable player in the industry.
It also runs dual lines DRAM+NAND, covering general storage, HBM, automotive-grade, and industrial-grade flash.
Its product line covers all niche scenarios, with a much more balanced business layout than the other two.
But its biggest risk is not the industry cycle but geopolitical policies.
Import-export controls and supply chain restrictions can affect its shipments and performance anytime, causing extreme stock price volatility.
Its HBM progress is between Hynix and Changxin.
It lacks the Korean company's monopolistic capacity and the domestic company's policy protection.
Its trend follows the global storage cycle and international situation more, with maximum uncertainty.
Finally, the most confused SanDisk.
A serious reminder: SanDisk must never be compared to Changxin or Hynix.
This is the most common rookie mistake.
SanDisk never does DRAM memory business; it only does NAND flash.
Our daily-used USB drives, TF cards, and consumer SSDs are its core business.
It was acquired by Western Digital early on, later spun off independently, focusing deeply on the consumer storage track.
It is completely disconnected from AI memory, server DRAM, and HBM markets.
It does not benefit from AI dividends or domestic substitution dividends.
Its trend only follows the consumer flash supply-demand cycle.
Mixing it with the first three original storage manufacturers is a fundamental misunderstanding of the track.
After discussing the core differences of these four companies, let's look back at Changxin's explosive market performance today.
Objectively, a large part of today's surge is driven by speculative sentiment.
Extremely low float, scarce domestic DRAM leader status, and extreme bullish market sentiment
combined to create a market detached from the usual industry cycle.
Currently, the market shows very clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Retail investors are crazily chasing high, gambling on tenfold gains, while institutions remain rational and restrained on valuation.
High turnover at the top, subsequent volatility and differentiation are inevitable trends.
Don't blindly go all in on the storage track just because the sector is broadly rising and new stocks are surging.
Different tracks, logics, and dividends mean individual stock trends will continue to diverge.
Short-term speculative sentiment will eventually fade.
Those who can stand firm at high levels will always be those with pure logic, realized capacity, and real performance support.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Let me share the story behind the creation of this article:
The topic was actually quite accidental. That day, I saw the Korean KOSPI open high and then turn down, and I thought the reaction behind this was interesting—what were Korean institutions trading? After figuring it out, I realized this was a variable in the global storage landscape, so I wanted to write about it.
The hardest part of writing was "not turning it into a financial press release." How much it rose on the first day, market cap, and data are easy to pile up, but no one reads just data. I kept asking myself: What does this mean for Samsung and SK Hynix? What does it mean for Nvidia, the buyer of storage? Pulling out this logical chain made me feel the article was somewhat interesting.
What I most want to express is: these are actually signals of the global competitive landscape. Storage pricing power is shifting from a duopoly to a three-party game. This change won't happen in a single quarter, but the starting point is today.
After publishing, someone asked me, "So should I buy Samsung or short it now?" This question made me realize many people, after reading, are still looking for a simple trading instruction. I think this is exactly what I want to avoid. Analysis is not the answer; it helps you think through the problem clearly.
DYOR!This could be a pivotal week for $BTC . History suggests FOMC weeks often bring heightened volatility. Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable Bitcoin pullback, with an average decline of around 10% in the week that followed. Interestingly, before last month's meeting, BTC was trading near $66K—almost the same level we're seeing now. It later dropped nearly 12% to $58K, marking fresh cycle lows. The only exception came in May, when Bitcoin defied expecta📊Tonychoo | Crypto Institution Daily (2026.07.27)
📰 Today's highlights
1️⃣ ETF spot withdrawals diverge sharply from derivatives volume expansion:
On July 24 Eastern Time, BTC/ETH spot ETFs saw over $310 million in outflows in a single day, but the 24-hour trading volume of derivatives across the network surged to $107.753 billion (an increase of 57.84%), with liquidations surging by 164%. The market is entirely driven by futures leverage, and spot funds remain sluggish in buying positions.
2️⃣ East Coast and South Korea spot prices are relatively cold:
Coinbase's premium index was -0.09, and South Korea's premium dropped to -0.3, reflecting weak spot buying by institutions and retail investors in Europe and the US.
3️⃣ Key fixes for on-chain structures:
Small whales (100~1k BTC) have returned to unprofitable positions, MVRV is forming a golden cross pattern, but the Bull Score (30) remains at the boundary between bear and neutral markets.
4️⃣ MicroStrategy (Saylor) Reserves:
Holding 884,377 BTC, total value $54.36 billion, average cost $75,653 (current unrealized loss -14.84%). Saylor tweeted that "another color is needed," and the market speculates it may introduce new asset reserves.
5️⃣ Macro and Policy Correlations:
The US and Iran confirmed the continued communication of information;
Charles Schwab has recognized the Clarity Act as the industry's most critical catalyst.
📊 Institutional Funding's Moves (Data from Friday, July 24, Eastern Time)
BTC ETF
🔴 Net outflow for the day: -$240.1 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (IBIT): -$212.2 million
• Fidelity (FBTC): -$27.9 million
Historical Data:
The cumulative net inflow of BTC ETFs across the entire network was $51.439 billion (IBIT cumulative +60.394 billion / GBTC cumulative -27.416 billion yuan).
ETH ETF
🔴 Single-day net outflow: -$70.7 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (ETHA): -$52.8 million
• Fidelity (FETH): -$27.8 million
🟢 Major counter-trend inflows: • Grayscale (ETH): +$9.9 million
Historical data: Total net inflow of ETH ETFs across the network was $11.211 billion (ETHA cumulative +11.41 billion / ETHE cumulative -5.337 billion).
📈 Market sentiment and macro indicators
Coinbase Premium Index: -0.09 (US institutional spot selling pressure is high)
Korean kimchi premium: -0.3 (retail sentiment is lukewarm)
Panic and Greed Index: 29 (in the "Panic" range)
Counterfeit Season Index / Total Network RSI: Counterfeit Season Index 54 (Neutral) | Overall RSI Average 51.96 (Neutral)
The DXY US Dollar Index retreated to 101.32, while spot gold remained fluctuating near $4,099/oz
📉 Derivatives and long-short game data
Total transaction volume across the entire network in 24 hours: $107.753 billion (+57.84%)
Total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours: $218 million (+164.15%)
Total Open Interest (OI): $115.252 billion (+0.60%)
BTC
Price: approximately $65,380.2 (+1.41%)
Funding rate: 0.0070%
Total Open Interest (OI): $48.359 billion
24-hour liquidation: $37.7472 million
Distribution of long and short positions: 24-hour long-short ratio across the network 50.72% / 49.28%;
Binance's large account long-short ratio is 1.63.
Depth and order wall: Currently breaking through the previous sell order wall and consolidating at $65,280, accumulating a score of 73 (bullish), with core resistance above at the $66,000 sell order wall.
ETH
Price: approximately $1,957.47 (+4.13%)
Funding rate: 0.0074%
Open interest (OI) across the entire network: $28.022 billion
24-hour liquidation: $92.3682 million
Depth and suppression: Touching the native sell order wall, with three strong resistance levels distributed between $2,125 and above.
🔍 In-depth on-chain and technical observation
1️⃣ Severe Divergence Between Spot and Futures Demand:
BTC futures demand indicators have turned positive, but spot demand remains negative. Because spot selling exceeds futures buying, overall demand is in negative territory. This round of rally is essentially derivatives squeeze rather than genuine buying. In terms of liquidity, USDC maintained net inflows (US institutions are holding up defense), while USDT saw slight outflows (low non-US activity).
2️⃣ Cycle pattern and RSI recovery:
The 30MA and 90MA of the MVRV ratio are rapidly converging, and after the June death cross, a low-level golden cross is about to occur. The Bull Score Index rose to 30 (having escaped the extreme bear zone of 10); The LTH/STH SOPR ratio has broken through 1, and the relative profit ratio between long-term and short-term holders has returned to balance.
3️⃣ On-chain Tokens and Physical Activity:
"Little whales" holding 100~1,000 BTC have returned to unrealized profits, which historically has been one of the signals confirming a rebound.
4️⃣ ETH/BTC Structure Analysis:
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has converged to the end of a nearly 9-year cycle.
💬 In short
Derivatives leverage and on-chain technical indicators are recovering at low levels, but ETF outflows and negative spot demand have exposed the weakness of a lack of buying capital. Before the $66,000 resistance hit, blindly chase the rally is avoided.
💵 Understanding capital trends is more important 💵 than predicting prices
$BTC $ETH
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Changxin Technology's push for a STAR Market listing signifies that China's DRAM industry is moving toward a larger capital market. With its local supply chain, massive domestic demand, and pricing strategy, Changxin may indeed capture more of the mid- to low-end market, and may even force Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to readjust their pricing. However, low prices are only part of the competitive edge; the real battles in the memory industry also include manufacturing processes, yields, HBM technology, customer certifications, and equipment acquisition. Especially under the Trump administration's emphasis on "America First," semiconductor policy may still focus on protecting American manufacturing and supply chains. In the past, the U.S. has imposed a 50% Section 301 tariff on Chinese semiconductors, and has provided Micron with subsidies up to about $6.165 billion through the CHIPS Act, while imposing export controls to restrict the flow of advanced semiconductor equipment and HBM-related technologies to China. If Changxin rapidly expands its global market share in the future, the U.S. may still raise tariffs, expand the restricted list, or further tighten equipment and technology exports. My View: Therefore, I believe Changxin will be a major variable in the global storage market, but in the long run, Micron, $SAMSUNG, and $SKHYNIX still have advantages in technology, customers, and supply chains. If you are optimistic about AI driving memory demand but don't want to put all your eggs in one basket, you can consider $DRAM to diversify across multiple global memory companies and reduce policy and technical risks for a single company.
The above content reflects only personal views and market observations and does not constitute any investment advice. Investments should still be made based on your own risk tolerance, financial situation, and research decisions$SKHYNIX The Q2 earnings report will be released on July 29. The core contradiction lies in the battle between extremely high fundamental expectations and the pressure to sell positions with high leverage. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode.
Institutions forecast single-quarter operating profit of 64.1 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of nearly 600%, surpassing its total profits for the full year 2025 and establishing the explosive potential of the HBM structural cycle. An estimated operating margin of 75%-77% confirms the strong pricing power of high value-added products; however, the stock price has already drawn more than 30% from its peak, reflecting market concerns about the clearing of capital leverage.
The transmission path of event risk mainly focuses on rebalancing position structure and risk appetite. Retail investors' high-leverage funds enter concentriously before the earnings report milestone, amplifying short-term volatility and intensifying the short-term disconnect between price trends and fundamentals.
If the profit margin remains steadily above 75% after the earnings report and high leverage does not trigger a stampede, the stock price is likely to trigger a rebound scenario. This scenario requires observing the absorption of selling pressure on the day of the earnings report. If the volume volume breaks through the pullback trendline without liquidation stamping, the high valuation clearance phase will end.
If the earnings report is realized and triggers profit-taking exit and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, the stock price will trigger a second bottoming scenario. At this point, it is important to closely monitor the degree of stampede by high-leverage funds. If the pullback further expands and breaks below key support, the deleveraging process will be forced to prolong.
The signal of the upward scenario fails is that after the positive financial report materializes, turnover rates surge, but prices have not reached local highs, indicating that long funds are unable to absorb profit-taking. The downward scenario failed, with selling pressure being absorbed by strong buying immediately after the earnings report was released, with leverage ratios dropping rapidly and prices stabilizing after a stabilization.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the speed of leveraged capital deposition and turnover rate before and after the July 29 earnings release.
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Positive Moments or Shortcoming?A month or two ago, those who asked on the timeline whether Google, Micron, and Intel were already out of stock have gone silent now. When prices rise, they are bullish; when prices fall, they are bearish. What should be done?
The odds are indeed not as high as during the US-Iran conflict three months ago, when I straightforwardly said buy the dip.
Now it’s the left side; the closer to the valuation floor, the more worth buying in batches. Valuation and investment strategies have been shared in the subscription.
No leverage, no all-in, no all-out. Skin in the game.
Last April, when $GOOG was 140, $INTC 20, and $MU 70, no one could clearly say how these companies would make money three years later. Now it’s clear, the valuation multiples haven’t changed, but people are afraid to buy.
This is the definition of cognitive difference. The same valuation multiples last year meant uncertainty. Now buying means buying something already validated. The visibility of the denominator is completely different, yet the market demands the same or even higher discounts. The risk premium that should be compressed hasn’t been compressed.
So what is falling now? It’s the leverage from the excess returns between late March and May. Crowded trades clearing out, quarterly balancing, mid-year locking in floating profits.
These things have nothing to do with the company’s cash flow over the next three years. Investing in Capex now is infrastructure; airports must be built first before tickets can be sold one by one. I have shared that cash flow is very likely positive by 2028.
But institutions are assessed quarterly and must deliver relative returns within the window. Retail investors don’t have to play by these rules; time is the only structural advantage for retail investors, emotion is the biggest shortcoming, and the vast majority don’t understand the companies they invest in—this is what Burry rightly said.
Take a look at the articles I’ve shared about company fundamental analysis, which also include valuation and buyer records. Most people happen to give up on it when prices get cheap.
A stock price drop after a good earnings report doesn’t mean the fundamentals have been falsified. Strong stocks entering high-volatility consolidation don’t mean the long-term trend is over.
The long-term value of many excellent companies is precisely what keeps increasing during the decline.
Skin in the game. True investing is not about avoiding all volatility but knowing why you deserve to endure this volatility.From a medium- to long-term geopolitical perspective, both the US and Iran have strong economic incentives to ease tensions. Coupled with the implementation of a ceasefire memorandum and ongoing multilateral mediation, a phased reconciliation is an inevitable trend, and the geopolitical premium on crude oil will continue to decline.
The core anchor for global asset pricing remains the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Considering the current sticky inflation, resilient non-farm payrolls, and the latest dot plot guidance, there are only two possible policy paths within the year: maintaining the current high interest rates or resuming rate hikes; there is absolutely no basis for rate cuts.
The new chairman, Waller, sent a clear hawkish signal in his debut. His monetarist philosophy and tough anti-inflation stance are consistent over the long term. Even if there is no rate hike in this round of meetings, the tone remains hawkish. Market expectations for easing should not be overly relied upon. This is my personal opinion for reference only. 海峡双航道、乌克兰贸然袭击伊朗资源船只，今天的信息密度还是可以的
这也与我上周的分析基本吻合，美伊局势发展至今，要么All in 打一个昏天暗地，俄乌与美伊战争混战，S3概率提升
要么偃旗息鼓，双方各退一步，回归技术性谈判，进入长期的外交斡旋阶段
只要不是疯子，都不会选择all in，特朗普虽然癫了点，但是也不是战争疯子，这是可以预见的！
能源价格快速回落是预料之中，不过细节处可以发现，国际原油与美油之间的价差在快速缩减
这意味着美国本身的能源价格压力实际上更大！#美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 With today's market situation, I finally feel like I'm catching my breath.
The US-Iran conflict has temporarily cooled down, oil prices have plunged sharply, Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000, and Ethereum has rebounded even more fiercely. To put it simply, the market hasn't suddenly strengthened, but rather that the war and inflation expectations that had been weighing on have temporarily eased a bit.
But right now, I really don't dare get too excited.
Because this week still includes the Fed meeting, US GDP and PCE data, plus tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon releasing earnings reports, any result that falls short of expectations could further dampen the sentiment that has just returned.
Moreover, although Bitcoin broke through $65,000, its trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that many people are still watching and have not truly started chasing aggressively.
So my current attitude is still the same as always:
The rebound is worth watching, but hold on for chasing highs.
Do you think you can hold onto 65,000 this time, or will it come back in a couple of days? $BTC #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌
Breaking news: oil prices dropped 6%, the market is rushing ahead, and a bit too hastily.
The 6% drop in oil prices is a rush, not a fair valuation. The US military's pause in airstrikes is a fact; Brent crude briefly fell below $90 intraday, but there's a huge difference between "pause" and "ceasefire." Iran's stance is "more skeptical than optimistic," and the White House has clearly stated that if negotiations don't progress, a full-scale war resumption will definitely be considered. More critically, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed; fewer than 10 bulk commodity ships pass daily over the weekend. The oil price plunge is more about emotional release and short covering; the geopolitical risk itself has not eased in any substantive way.
Prediction markets give a 75% probability, but I am much more pessimistic than that. Polymarket's 75% seriously overestimates the likelihood of an agreement by the end of August. The US-Iran conflict has lasted nearly five months, mutual trust is almost zero, and two weeks is not even enough time to get both sides to the negotiating table. Prediction markets tend to amplify short-term optimistic expectations during extreme sentiment, so their reference value is limited.
A 6% drop in oil prices will not change the wording of the FOMC decision on Thursday. The Federal Reserve meets July 28-29, with the probability of a rate hike once approaching 40%. A single-day oil price fluctuation will not make the Fed reverse its judgment within three days—they focus on trends, not noise. Maintaining rates unchanged remains the most likely outcome, but the statement wording will likely lean hawkish.
My position is waiting for the FOMC decision statement early Thursday morning. BTC has returned above 65,000, Nasdaq futures opened higher, and risk assets are rebounding, but this is a news-driven emotional recovery, not a trend reversal. What I am waiting for is the Fed's official characterization of inflation and geopolitical risks—if the wording is dovish, it means the oil price drop carries weight in their eyes and they can raise rates; if hawkish, it means they don't consider this fluctuation significant, and this rebound is a chance to escape.
Jumping in now is betting on a ceasefire agreement within two weeks—that's too big a gamble, I won't take it. Do you like to gamble? 2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapsed, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapsed, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC $63,000, bottoming out in 2-3 weeks?
Every time, the market says, "This time is different."
Every time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: the market caps of BTC in the first three rounds were $2B, $20B, and $300B respectively. Now it's $1.3T.
Same rules, but on a larger scale. $BTC $ETH $SOL🚨 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently stated that this round of Bitcoin adjustments may be nearing its end.
He believes the market has completed this important bottoming process, with BTC holding steady near $70,000 recently, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. For true long-term investors, short-term fluctuations are simply the market norm, not trend reversals.
Armstrong stated that institutional funds continue to flow into the digital asset market. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract stable funding, with many listed companies continuing to increase their holdings of BTC as reserve assets. Many countries around the world are accelerating the improvement of their crypto asset regulatory frameworks, bringing a clearer development environment to the industry.
Meanwhile, there are several other important recent positive developments worth noting:
📈 The U.S. market continues to focus on the Fed's future policy path, and the market generally expects the liquidity environment to further improve.
🏦 Several international financial institutions announced plans to expand their digital asset and stablecoin-related businesses, accelerating the construction of blockchain payment infrastructure.
⚡ Enterprise-level Bitcoin adoption continues to rise, with more institutions viewing BTC as an important component of long-term asset allocation.
🤖 New tracks such as AI, RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization), and on-chain finance continue to attract capital attention, injecting new growth momentum into the entire crypto market.
Although short-term market volatility may still occur, Armstrong believes the fundamentals driving Bitcoin's rally remain solid. Each reasonable pullback feels more like gathering strength for the next rally, rather than a signal to panic about.
$BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #Crypto #FOMC #AI #RWA Micron vs Kioxia, has the storage cycle reversed?
Micron's earnings just came out, market reactions are polarized.
The AI computing power chain is the biggest beta from 2024 to 2026.
HBM revenue year-over-year +60%. The most direct beta for AI computing demand.
Micron vs Kioxia. Both companies' cycles have reversed, and the storage sector is collectively rising.
HBM unit price. HBM3E 12-layer is 5 times more expensive than DDR5.
These data are not isolated; resonance must be considered.
No one knows the bottom, so don’t rush.
📌 Three things to watch beyond revenue for AI demand
Quarterly earnings reports of semiconductor companies are important, but you can’t just look at revenue growth. You also need to see if HBM capacity can be delivered, whether gross margin improvements are sustainable, and if customer capital expenditures will shift from training to inference. Strong demand doesn’t mean all suppliers can convert it into free cash flow.
🧭 How I track this
First, look at order visibility and capacity utilization. Second, check the alignment of product prices, yields, and capital expenditures. Third, cross-verify company performance with peers, upstream equipment suppliers, and downstream cloud service providers. If only the stock price rises without fundamentals catching up, I treat it as a trade, not a long-term position.
⚠️ Risk reminder
AI narratives tend to price in long-term expectations prematurely, and supply increases or delayed customer spending can cause sharp volatility. Observing earnings is not investment advice; decisions should be based on your own time horizon and risk tolerance.
🎯 Final execution framework
First, observe if performance is validated for two consecutive quarters, then control volatility with phased and capped positions; don’t ignore valuation and exit conditions just because of a hot label.
I break this topic into three layers. The first layer is directly observable data—record values, timing, and direction to avoid drawing conclusions from a single chart. The second layer is market reaction—data improving but prices stagnant, or data weakening but prices still rising, which have completely different implications. The third layer is your own action—write down the maximum tolerable loss before deciding whether to adjust your position. This sequence may seem slow but reduces being swayed by a single headline.
For me, order visibility, capacity utilization, and valuation should be compared on the same chart. Each update only changes parts with new evidence; don’t flip your entire judgment because of one number. If the three observation directions conflict, I downgrade the conclusion to "waiting for confirmation" rather than forcing a bullish or bearish story. The most overlooked cost in the market is prematurely locking in assumptions and then unwillingness to admit they have failed.
In execution, I first test with an observation position; when volume, price, and fundamentals align in at least two aspects, I consider increasing exposure; if volatility expands or liquidity thins, I reduce the position first. Any backtesting, historical cases, or KOL opinions can only be used to build hypotheses, not replace current risk checks. This content is my research notes, not guaranteed buy or sell instructions.
In the next update, I will re-examine four things: whether the news is still valid, if price reactions are confirmed, if liquidity is sufficient to execute, and if the original risk assumptions have been broken. If it’s just social media hype without volume or capital support, I treat it as a signal to watch; if data direction changes, I will also revise the original script rather than holding on for face.
The benefit of this approach is separating "views" from "actions." Views can hold multiple possibilities, but actions must have clear triggers. For short-term trades, I set a time limit; for mid-to-long-term positions, I check fundamentals and cost of capital. Regardless of the outcome, I record entry reasons, exit reasons, and actual slippage so the next time there is real material for improvement.
If data sources conflict, I mark the conflict and wait for original announcements or the next time point for confirmation, not replacing evidence with social media sentiment. This also means sometimes the best action is to stay out and wait, because not trading is also managing uncertainty.Another exchange collapsed. Yesterday, BitMart announced its closure. In the past 24 hours, only 58 wallets were able to withdraw, with a total withdrawal amount of about $805,000, and no withdrawals processed in the past 8 hours.
In recent years, there have been too many contract gurus figures with the image of stable profits multiplying dozens of times a year. They package their trading curves, showcase screenshots of sudden wealth, and then guide users to small platforms with no guaranteed liquidity or risk control
During bull markets, all problems are covered by price increases, but in bear markets, after liquidity fades, true strength is proven. Small firms' problems don't erupt overnight; they accumulate gradually during bear markets, with declining trading volume, reduced income, and increased capital chain pressure
So often, don't be tempted by stories about guaranteed profits doubling your investment. Those people usually end up with some little scam firm, and when you can't withdraw your funds, you'll be in tears.$ETH
Still hesitating for Ethereum under 2000?
Time to get in the car!
Currently, the price of Ethereum is about 1950!
The first major event, and the most tangible signal: the number of people queuing for staking and exiting has been completely wiped out!
To give you an analogy, staking is like a fixed deposit—you have to deposit 32 ETH to participate, and you have to queue up to withdraw your money.
Last year, when the market was bad, a bunch of big players lined up to withdraw money, with long lines waiting dozens of days to withdraw. At that time, the big players were all fleeing, and the market definitely fell.
Now, on the other hand, no one is lining up to withdraw money; they can take it anytime they want, which shows that the big holders stockpiling ether have no intention of selling at all.
Not only did no one leave, but a pile of funds lined up to deposit it—over 2.4 million ETH waiting to be pledged, with the queue taking more than forty days to deposit.
To put it simply: smart people are quietly hoarding, and no one wants to sell or dump, making it hard for the market to drop sharply.
The second issue is that the U.S. regulatory bill has failed, and it won't be resolved before the August holidays.
Previously, many people hoped for this bill to be implemented, hoping that once official rules were established, big institutions would flood in and buy coins.
Now, with no short-term hope, many retail investors are anxious, afraid the market will continue to stall.
But just look at the big players' actions—if they were really afraid of trouble, they'd have lined up to withdraw money and run off, but instead, they locked up their holdings and didn't move.
Simply put, retail investors are startled by rumors, while truly wealthy investors only care about long-term value and remain unfazed.
Third, the conflict in the Middle East has eased a bit. Previously, people were afraid of wars and sold their coins to exchange for US dollars as a safe haven.
It's not as tight now, and the market is a bit looser, which has helped Ethereum hold up some of the bottom; otherwise, prices would have continued to decline today.
Now, let me share my honest opinion:
1. Don't expect big surges or drops in the short term; right now it's just a tempting fluctuation. The price below 1870 is hard support and will be hard to break below
2. No need to panic and sell losses every day; big players hold onto their funds. Opportunities to sell ETH are becoming scarce and scarce. A big drop is a chance to buy bargains—don't panic and sell your positions just because it drops.
3. Avoid those messy meme coins and meme tokens; all price movements rely on hype, resetting zero at will. The risk is too high, so focus on mainstream reliable Ethereum stocks.
4. If you can hold long-term, don't panic. Most of Ether is now locked and pledged, and fewer coins circulate in the market. If there's any positive news in the future, the price will be strong.
One last piece of advice: Don't follow news and trade frequently; if you keep struggling, you'll lose a lot on fees. Only by holding onto the bottom chip can you make money! The rise in BTC dominance and ETH/BTC falling below 0.05 indicate that the market appears to be structurally differentiated, and real pricing is laying the groundwork for a systemic decline.
Is the market shifting from a "selective counterfeit rebound" to a "full-line liquidity exhaustion"?
- Original fact: BTC dominance is 56.8% and is rising; ETH/BTC fell below 0.05; altcoin 20-day moving average volume is 18% below the average. The original text divides the market into four stages: BTC/ETH/SOL leading the gains; Some altcoins (JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP) followed the rise; Weak coins (BEAT, COAI, SPACE, VIRTUAL) only rebounded slightly; The final stage is a reversal of leading coins and triggering a sell-off. Currently, the third phase is underway.
- Structural changes: altcoin volume has shrunk by 18% and is below the 20-day moving average, indicating that buying is exhausting rather than rotational. The rise in BTC dominance means funds are flowing from altcoins to BTC, but the institutional signal that ETH/BTC fell below 0.05 indicates that BTC's capital inflows are not from new buying but from existing safe-haven assets. The market is undergoing a defensive position adjustment of "selling offcoins, not buying ETH, holding BTC cash equivalents."
- Pricing impact: Altcoins lack new buy orders, so the rebound depends on BTC's sustained rise to drive risk appetite. However, the rise in BTC dominance itself suppresses altcoin valuations, creating negative feedback. If BTC fails to break through the current high, the altcoin will be directly under pressure; If BTC pulls back, altcoins are likely to fall even further. ETH/BTC falling below 0.05 indicates reduced institutional willingness to allocate ETH, further weakening overall market liquidity.
- Bullish path: BTC maintains high volatility and drives a decline in dominance. When altcoins recover trading volume above 30% and ETH/BTC returns to 0.05, they may start a catch-up rally before the fourth phase. The 30% increase in trading volume mentioned in the original text for LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP is a local observation point.
- Bearish risk: BTC dominance continues to rise to around 58%, ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.045, and altcoin volume can further shrink to below 25% of the 20-day moving average. At this point, the fourth phase (the leading coin reversal sell-off) will be triggered, and the market will enter a full-scale decline. The original warning that "just one bad piece of news will lead to a sell-off" is a reasonable expectation.
- Conclusion: The current market is not rotating, but rather a one-way contraction of liquidity from altcoins to BTC to cash. Holding cash is currently the most effective position.
Risk: If altcoin volume remains below more than 20% of the 20-day moving average, the rebound structure will fail.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #加密货币 #市场分析Bitcoin $BTC is very likely to follow a recurrent oscillation pattern similar to February to May. At this stage, there will not be unilateral sharp rises or falls, but rather repeated sideways movements. Altcoins may actually have opportunities for rotational momentum recently.
I think it's hard to call it a major bottom right now. The timing and magnitude of the adjustment haven't been in place yet, and with no expectations for rate cuts at the time, there's a lack of upward catalyst. Moreover, historically, during U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has mostly experienced varying degrees of correction, so the probability of a direct bottom here is very low.
History never fully repeats itself, but trends will always be highly similar. The real bottom often appears when the market is panicked and everyone is hesitant and doubtful.