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#10-year US Treasury yield nears 5% threshold, repo fails to stop yield rise Conclusion upfront: short-term hit, medium-term divergence The surge of US Treasury yields toward 5% feels like an invisible hand choking the liquidity of the crypto market. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have to bow in the short term, but Ethereum’s institutional staking narrative might let it withstand a few more blows than Bitcoin. $BTC 76000 is the last line of defense The 10-year US Treasury yield approaching 5% means risk-free returns are becoming more attractive, sharply increasing the holding cost of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. After PPI data exceeded expectations, Bitcoin dropped below 76000 within an hour, hitting a low of 72683. Spot ETFs saw an outflow of $167 million this week, ending three consecutive weeks of large inflows—institutional funds are quietly withdrawing. Strategists bluntly state: the negative correlation between Bitcoin and real interest rates is clear; as long as yields continue approaching 5%, this adverse factor is unlikely to fade in the short term. $ETH staking narrative is a buffer but can’t escape beta suppression Ethereum is also being pressed down by shrinking risk appetite, but the ongoing accumulation of institutional staking (e.g., Bitmine has staked over 4 million ETH, accounting for 10.5% of staked supply) provides it with a demand base different from Bitcoin. ETH’s short-term support is at 2295. However, Ethereum is typically a high-beta player during macro pressure periods—its DeFi and smart contract platform attributes make it more sensitive to liquidity conditions. Once Bitcoin loses key support, ETH’s decline could be amplified.