#LongYields5%NewNormal
About LongYields5%NewNormal
Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
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JPMorgan Asset Management: US Treasuries have fallen to the "maximum pain point," it's time to bottom-fish long-term government bonds
Bob Michele, Chief Investment Officer of JPMorgan Asset Management, stated that his team has begun purchasing long-term government bonds from the U.S., Japan, and Australia, believing that current prices are "simply too cheap" and that the bond market has reached a "critical point of extreme pain."
On Wednesday, Michele told Bloomberg Television that multiple positive factors are converging: starting with the European Central Bank's rate hike last week, through the Federal Reserve, and up to th
#LongYields5%NewNormal The Fed hiked 25bps, but the long end barely blinked 👀
The 10-year briefly dipped toward 4.95% before returning near 5%, while the 30-year stayed above 5%.
What caught my attention is the curve. If short yields stabilize but long yields stay elevated, this may be structural, not just Fed policy.
AI capex, inflation risk and term premium are competing for capital.
For BTC and high-beta assets, 5% long yields could become the new hurdle.
🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT.
The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets.
#DailyOrbit
-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
Market consensus
The bearish side believes that the attractiveness of US Treasuries has increased, causing funds to withdraw from risky assets like crypto; others think that the main reason is the excessive US fiscal issuance pushing up rates, a short-term pulse shock that may not sustain high levels.
Underlying logic analysis
US Treasuries are the global asset pricing anchor. With yields breaking 5%, the opportunity cost of holding BTC rises. Funds will prioritize the certainty of US Treasuries, risk appetite declines, and the crypto market is likely to face pressure. The focus will be on the FOMC meeting statements going forward.
Personal view (personal opinion only, not investment advice) #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
The Fed just did something it hadn’t done since 2023.
Rates: +25 bps → 3.75–4.00%.
Vote: 12–0.
Signal: policymakers still see another hike this year.
Yet BTC held near $75.7K immediately after the decision instead of producing the expected macro shock. The hike was priced in; the forward path is now the real trade.