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Oil prices briefly broke through $100 per barrel before retreating, but the weekly gain remained close to 10%, driven by ongoing geopolitical disruptions to the global energy supply chain. Currently, the international crude oil market is highly sensitive, and tensions in any major oil-producing region or transportation corridor can trigger sharp price swings. For example, if a military standoff or port blockade risk occurs in the Middle East, the market will quickly factor in a "supply disruption premium," pushing up oil prices; Once the situation eases or inventory data exceeds expectations, prices will quickly pull back. From the perspective of economic transmission paths, rising oil prices will directly drive up costs in industries such as transportation and chemical manufacturing, potentially pushing up overall inflation. For investors, attention should be paid to future developments in geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production policies, and the pace of U.S. strategic oil reserve releases. These factors will collectively determine whether oil prices can hold above the 100-yuan mark.Uncle San doesn't mess around, only talks about data, logic, and cycles.
Brothers and sisters, this is the second issue of "On-Chain Uncle San."
After the inaugural issue was released last week, we received many messages from brothers saying Uncle San broke down the data clearly and understandably. Let's continue—no hype, no bashing, just going through the truly important events of this week.
1. Market Overview: Middle East Ceasefire, BTC Returns to 65K
Let's start with the most direct changes.
On Monday, July 27, Beijing time, Bitcoin stood at $65,258, up about 1.2% in 24 hours. Ethereum was even stronger, rising over 3%, approaching $1,950. Other top ten assets like Solana and XRP also recorded gains of 1% to 2%.
Direct driver: US-Iran ceasefire.
The US and Iran paused military strikes against each other for the second consecutive day, leaving room for diplomatic breakthroughs. Once the news broke, the market quickly switched to a "risk-on" mode—crude oil plunged about 5% to around $85, US stock futures rose, and cryptocurrencies rebounded in sync.
The transmission chain is clear: war → oil price rises → inflation expectations rise → central bank hawkishness → risk assets under pressure; ceasefire → chain loosens → money flows back into high-risk assets.
2. Key Signals: Why is BTC's Rise Restrained While ETH is Stronger?
Some brothers might ask: BTC only rose 1.2%, ETH over 3%, why?
There are structural reasons worth examining.
Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, while Bitcoin ETFs, although net inflows overall last week, experienced single-day outflows. Preferences at the spot level have quietly shifted, but price effects only became obvious today.
Additionally, Ethereum is inherently more sensitive to macro sentiment than Bitcoin—when the market loosens, it bounces higher; when the market tightens, it falls harder. Today is the former.
But Uncle San also reminds: there is no broad altcoin rally yet. Bitcoin's 58.6% market dominance indicates that capital rotation is not yet a widespread altcoin market. ETH outperforming is a signal, but don't rush to go all in on altcoins.
3. Most Important Events: $2.5 Billion Options + Fed Meeting
Today's rebound is just the prelude; the real drama is in the next two days.
Event 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (July 28-29)
The market generally expects the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged (target range 3.5%-3.75%). But the real key is Fed Chair Powell's remarks—answers on inflation trends, oil price impact, and whether further rate hikes are possible will directly determine market direction.
Currently, the market assigns a 36.3% probability to a 25 basis point rate hike. The drop in oil prices is good, but whether inflation is truly under control depends on the Fed's statement.
Event 2: $2.5 Billion Options Bets
Options traders have bought about $2.5 billion nominal value of Bitcoin call spread options expiring July 31. If Bitcoin rises to around $72,000 after the Fed decision, these positions will profit.
$2.5 billion is not a small amount. This means big money is betting on one direction—and that direction is up. But Uncle San must say: call spread options don't guarantee price rises; they mean "someone is willing to bet on this possibility." We can watch the show, but don't go all in.
4. Cycle Perspective: Bottom May Form "Within the Next Two Months"?
Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, shared data on X:
The time between each Bitcoin halving and the subsequent bear market bottom is about 900 days, and the current cycle has reached day 827. According to this pattern, the potential final bottom may form within the next two months.
This data aligns with last week's research report conclusion (the low point may form by late November 2026). Two independent sources point to the same time window—this resonance deserves attention.
5. Uncle San's Words
The market has come this far; short term watch the Fed, medium term watch the cycle.
Volatility won't be small in the next two days. If the Fed signals dovishness, BTC could challenge the 67,000-68,000 resistance zone; if hawkish, it may retest support at 62,000-63,000.
Strategy in one sentence: don't bet on direction before the news lands, and don't dump chips in the thick of panic.
At this position, there's room up and a bottom down—but you need chips in hand to wait for dawn.
Follow "On-Chain Uncle San," we'll provide timely analysis and trading advice on the Fed decision in the next two days.
#美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 China's largest memory chip manufacturer was listed in Shanghai this morning, with its stock price surging 470% at one point after opening.
Priced at ¥8.66, it opened at ¥49.50. Its market capitalization soared from $85 billion to $487 billion within minutes.
It has now become the highest-valued listed company in China, surpassing ICBC.
9.4 million retail investors applied for ¥7.07 trillion worth of shares, with an allocation ratio of 0.47%.
To fund these subscriptions, people sold everything else. The STAR 50 index has dropped nearly 20% from its July high, while the cash waiting for allocation remains frozen.
Because the STAR market requires holding assets worth ¥500,000 and having quotas, foreigners cannot buy any shares.
Therefore, just two weeks ago, a crypto platform listed a perpetual contract on Hyperliquid that tracks CXMT's price. Traders who are legally unable to hold the stock priced it between $400 billion and $560 billion.
Its market cap at opening was $487 billion.
No one can arbitrage this perpetual contract with the real stock because there is no mechanism #forcing them to be consistent. That's just how it is$BTC #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 这步棋，黑方选择了长考——CLARITY Act的兵线刚过中线，就被对手的象链锁死。Senate Majority Leader Thune的发言，等于在棋盘上标注了“？？”，白棋的进攻计划被迫转入残局。特朗普那14亿的加密收益，不是王翼的兑子，而是后翼的牵制——民主党与消费者团体抓住这个弱点，像对付孤兵一样围攻白方的结构漏洞。
看这局面的战术细节：DOJ独掌执法权，等于把棋盘上所有的车都绑在同一条横线上；间接持仓的模糊性，像是一个未定义的叠兵；而2029年1月20日的自动失效条款，简直就是棋钟上预先设定的超时警告。预测市场给出的概率从早期的七成跌到三分之一，这不是简单的赔率调整，而是棋手们集体判断：白方的王车易位已无法完成，中局战斗被迫提前收缩。
现在谈$XLITE的深度联动。它像棋盘上的c3兵，表面孤弱，实则牵制着整个后翼结构。CLARITY法案的停滞，等于对手在c3位置插入了一个马——$XLITE的流动性叙事立刻收紧，因为市场意识到，当法规路径被切断，资本只能龟缩到少数几个安全格，也就是那些持有实体资产的“堡垒型”标的。$XLITE的盘面波动不是随机走法，而是棋手在计算：如果CLARITY法案再拖三个季度，这枚棋子是值得保留的“通路兵”，还是该早早兑换的“弃子”？
最终局面的判断点不在当下，而在2026这个时间格——候选列表里的CLARITYActAug2026像是一个残局阶段的兑子窗口。但白方现在连中局的主动权都在丧失，每一次阻挡、兑子、甚至是小范围的“逼和”尝试，都在消耗宝贵的步数。他们可以再移一步，但棋盘上的空间正被对手的棋子填满。
残局时钟滴答作响。 #clarityactstalledChewing on skewers XBMNR is a project with a +10.95% increase according to OKX real-time data. It looks quite impressive, with a transaction volume of only 3.9K USDT, which is less than the pancake stall downstairs from the whole morning. I looked around the team background, a few anonymous avatars formed an "international team," and the white paper described token economics as vaguely as horoscopes, saying they would build a cross-chain NFT lending aggregator. But the only application in the ecosystem was a pixel-level Pong game. To put it bluntly, this level of depth is basically a mutual cutting among group members. Looking at IRYS, +10.53% traded at 2.68M, much more decent. Rumors are circulating in the community that they are about to integrate a certain L2 storage solution into the OKX wallet. Several veterans in the early Arweave ecosystem have a technical foundation stronger than some top-tier projects. PEOPLE is going crazy again this round by +10.12%, always acting like a fake during meme seasons, but I've heard there's an OG market-making team behind the scenes repeatedly doing swing trading, using exactly the same approach as last year's Vegas pool party—pulling up to clear leverage. ALL O's 8.15% drop is the most real. I heard the founder is in a dispute with a certain VC, and the unlock terms have fallen apart—the secondary market should be the first to pay respects. VELODROME rose 8% but only traded 19.6K, just like XBMNR, where degen players are all in the OP mainnet pool. This trading pair is pure performance art. Honestly, watching the candlestick line late at night, with neon lights flickering outside the window, is as psychedelic as these abstract charts. Spending real money to get in and even hearing about it is considered a worthwhile project Brothers, today I'm talking about something that may be overlooked by most people, but has far-reaching impact. Wall Street's tradition of "weekend market closure" is being forced to restructure by the crypto market's 24×7/7 trading model. What happened? According to CoinDesk, as the crypto market develops around the clock trading model, Wall Street exchanges are re-examining the traditional rule of "weekend closure." Perpetual contracts on crypto trading platforms are providing new risk management tools for traditional financial markets. In the past, Wall Street traders typically reduced their risk exposure before Friday's close to avoid weekend surprises that could prevent portfolio adjustments. But now, they have one more option—to hedge on crypto platforms. Most classic case: Middle East conflict in March this year. During the escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel in March, traditional energy markets were closed, but traders shifted to crypto exchanges to trade crude oil perpetual contracts. On Sunday, March 8, Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual open interest reached a record high of $1.2 billion. The 24-hour trading volume of crude oil perpetual contracts surged from $21 million on average before the crisis to between $1.2 billion and $1.99 billion. While Wall Street was still waiting for Monday's opening, the crypto market had already priced in 80% of the weekend's oil price volatility. By the time CME opens on Monday, the price will no longer be the close on Friday. The data speaks for itself: over the past three months, Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual contract weekday trading volume averaged about 2 to 3 times that of weekends, but the share of weekend trading has increased since the March conflictThe Federal Reserve interest rate decision overlaps with tech giants' earnings reports, and the risk asset tone depends on whether the giants' AI capital expenditures under high valuation and high positions can deliver profit growth.
Currently, cross-asset positions are highly concentrated in hardware and cloud computing leaders such as $NVDA, $MSFT, and $META. The dual catalysts of the Fed's rate decision and earnings reports are compressing liquidity premiums. Infrastructure construction and data center expansion consume massive capital, and market risk appetite is extremely sensitive to the scissors gap between capital expenditures and profit growth.
The priority order driving the trading landscape is: the degree to which AI capital expenditures squeeze short-term profits, changes in risk-free rates triggered by the Fed's rate guidance, and the transmission of risk appetite to peripheral high-beta assets.
The upside scenario triggers if $NVDA and the data center industry chain's profit growth outpaces infrastructure spending growth, and the Fed signals a dovish stance. Funds will return to high-beta tech stocks and the crypto market. Variables to watch include cloud computing division profit margins and the speed of net inflows of risk capital. If capital expenditure growth exceeds earnings, the scenario fails.
The downside scenario triggers if tech giants' free cash flow is eroded by massive hardware investments, earnings guidance falls short of expectations, and the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Rising risk-free rates will directly squeeze high-valuation sectors, prompting rapid deleveraging of long positions and a shift toward defensive assets. If the giants' AI monetization cycle shortens beyond expectations, the downside scenario fails.
If the market completely ignores earnings capital expenditure growth and is driven solely by the Fed's unilateral liquidity expectations, the above earnings-based transmission logic fails.
Key observations for the coming week include changes in tech giants' data center spending guidance, the yield curve movement after the Fed decision, and cross-market linkages caused by long position liquidations.
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 A rebound is a rebound, but a reversal is another story—$QQQ -1.12%, $IBIT -0.82%. Funds simply didn't follow suit, so this rally is questionable.
Look at the numbers
$BTC 65,273 +1.29% $ETH 1,965 +4.27%
$QQQ -1.12% $SPY +0.10% $IBIT -0.82%
$DXY -0.05% $GLD +0.10%
Crude oil and Hormuz continue to put a placebo on inflation expectations, while US Treasuries and Fed expectations hang over the table like swords hanging overhead. Any news about AI and semiconductors can make $QQQ tremble on the spot. $SNDK -3.0%, $SKHYNIX -1.4%, these directions are still soft.
Detailing each detail: $ETH is stronger than $BTC, and its elasticity indicates risk-averse funds are short-legging, but $QQQ haven't kept up, so the Nasdaq is clearly feeling guilty. $IBIT weaker than spot ETFs; when ETFs weaken, it's smart money not really adding positions. Don't just look at the $BTC price being pushed up. $DXY slight decline, risk assets finally catch their breath, but $GLD is still rising, and safe-haven funds haven't fully withdrawn. This structure is very tangled. $SOL also bounced along, but the turnover increased quickly; whether it could hold on was another matter.
Whoever can hold out at night will have to decide the next move. Whoever shows weakness first sets the direction—don't rush in.
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议"There's a teacher in my group who always raises orders every time he calls for a higher price"—why are you always the last one to know?
The "trading teachers" in the crypto circle have a set of standard operating procedures.
First layer: Build your own position first. Layer two: "revealing" internal information in small groups. Third layer: Group members rush in with FOMO to pump the market. Fourth layer: Screenshot and show off earnings to attract more people. Fifth level: Shipping.
The "price rises after shouting" you see is because you happen to be on the third floor. You will never see the first two floors.
Even more ironically—many "teachers" don't need to secretly build positions at all. They directly tell you, "I bought XX," then you rush in to carry the sedan chair. Your buying is his profit.
Remember one iron rule: information that truly makes money will never appear for free in your TG group. If someone chases you to tell you "this coin is going to fly," ask yourself a question—why would they tell you?
Ask me how I know? My tears will tell you the answer......#交易之声 your experience deserves to be heard On July 27, the downtrend continued from the previous day, weakening for four consecutive trading days, completely breaking below the key support level of 1500. The short-term bullish trend completely reversed, with a complete breakout below 1450, signaling a disastrous crash. Institutional funds: Long-term bulls are collectively reducing positions, hedge funds continue to increase short positions; Large sell orders flowed out continuously throughout the day, with institutional holdings showing net sales exceeding 1.2 billion USD for three consecutive days. On July 24, after the market closed, the company lowered its revenue and gross margin guidance for the next quarter, clearly warning that NAND flash prices are about to enter a downward trajectory, breaking the market's unanimous expectation of "AI continuing to drive flash memory prices." Institutional estimates suggest that if the average price of flash memory drops by 10%, SanDisk's gross margin will drop by 12 percentage points, posing a significant downward risk of earnings revisions; Previously, the annual surge completely overwhelmed expectations for price increases, and after negative news materialized, funds concentrated and forced them to flee. Samsung and SK Hynix are accelerating the construction of advanced NAND production lines above 300 layers, launching new capacity ahead of schedule. The market predicts a significant surge in NAND supply in 2027, replicating the memory industry's classic cycle of "price hikes - expansion - price crashes." SanDisk's business focuses solely on NAND flash memory, without hedged HDD or HBM business cycles. Compared to Samsung and Micron, which have a single business structure, funds prioritize selling SanDisk stocks due to expectations of overcapacity. Leading cloud providers have launched memory compression and KV Cache optimization solutions, and AI inference scenarios have lowered the incremental demand for large-capacity SSD flash memory; At the same time, the three major storage manufacturers prioritized advanced production capacity for high-margin HBM memory, driving growth in enterprise-level SSD ordersAI 估值逻辑已从"叙事溢价"切换至"回报验证"阶段
加密市场是否正在经历类似科技股的"从愿景到财报"的定价重估？
事实层面，Alphabet 与 Tesla 最新财报均显示营收超预期，其中 Google Cloud 同比增长 82%，但两家公司股价在发布后均出现下跌。核心分歧不在当前业绩，而在两家公司上调的 AI 资本支出指引。市场不再将 AI 投入视为增长信号，转而将其视为尚未被收入覆盖的成本项。这一逻辑已在本周半导体板块中传导，从需求侧对 AI 叙事进行了压力测试。
对加密市场而言，这一事件提供了一个清晰的估值镜面：当市场从"相信故事"转向"要求证据"时，任何依赖叙事而非现金流的资产类别，其定价结构都会面临收缩。当前 BTC 在 64K 附近的价格表现，反映的正是这种"ROI 焦虑"从科技股向整体风险资产的情绪外溢。
资金行为层面，需要区分三类资金：
- 真实需求资金：以机构合规配置和链上稳定币结算为主，这类资金对短期叙事切换敏感度较低，更关注宏观利率路径与监管清晰度，目前并未出现大规模撤离信号。
- 被动配置资金：如 ETF 流量与指数再平衡资金，受科技股情绪波动影响有限，但在风险偏好系统性收缩时，可能通过降低整体风险敞口间接减少对加密资产的配置。
- 短期投机资金：这是当前最受影响的资金类型。AI 叙事降温导致科技成长股的风险溢价上升，投机资金在跨资产比价中更倾向于撤出高 beta 资产，加密市场首当其冲。若这一情绪持续，山寨币尤其是与 AI 概念相关的代币将面临更大抛压。
传导路径：科技股估值逻辑切换 -> 跨资产风险偏好收缩 -> 投机资金流出 BTC/山寨 -> 流动性集中至 BTC 与稳定币 -> ETH 及山寨币相对表现弱于 BTC。
偏多路径：若后续科技公司财报能展示明确的 AI 收入转化路径，或宏观数据意外转鸽，风险偏好修复将首先回流 BTC，再逐步扩散至主流山寨。
偏空风险：若更多科技公司上调资本支出但缺乏收入支撑，市场对"负回报叙事"的定价将深化。BTC 若跌破 62K 关键支撑，可能触发短期投机资金的止损性抛售。
结论：AI 资本支出从"愿景"变为"成本"，是当前风险资产定价逻辑的结构性转折。加密市场短期仍受这一情绪外溢压制，直到宏观或链上数据提供新的定价锚。
风险提示：以上仅为市场逻辑推演，不构成任何操作建议。
$BTC $ETH #AIEarnings #CryptoMacroA month ago, I said $SPCX could fall by around 50%. That move has now happened. But I still don't believe the bottom is in. The next major catalyst is approaching: 📅 Share unlocks begin August 11. 📊 Around 20% of shares could enter the market during the unlock period. ⚠️ Only approximately 5% of total shares are currently in circulation. That creates a major supply overhang. When a large amount of previously locked shares becomes eligible to enter the market, selling pressure can increase sign#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower
After three days of ceasefire, the market changed
The U.S. and Iran paused their fights for three consecutive days, and Trump took the initiative to withdraw, saying it was to "leave some room for negotiations."
Iran responded: If you don't fight, then I won't. Both sides took a step back, and the Middle East finally breathed a sigh of relief.
Oil prices fell back in response, with Brent crude $BZ dropping from above $100 to $86.34, plunging 5.82% in a single day; WTI crude $CL also fell below the $85 mark, with both major benchmarks weakening simultaneously. Inflation concerns have temporarily eased, but oil prices are like springs—the harder they are pressed, the fiercer the rebound, provided no more surprises occur.
Global assets fluctuated accordingly. $BTC rebounded strongly from $63,800 and is currently holding steady above $65,200. The crypto market has always been sensitive to geopolitical risks: a ceasefire brings breathing room, and capital returns to risky assets; But the ceasefire agreement was unsigned, without constraints, fragile like a window paper.
The $XAU side for gold is even more interesting: with cooling in geopolitical climate and a stronger dollar, gold prices have pulled back from highs, with obvious short-term selling pressure. Market divisions are also intensifying: some think gold's recent rally is too aggressive and it's time to take a break; Some people treat pullbacks as reversing and taking over, betting on future uncertainty. After all, no one dares to say the Middle East game is over.
I believe the next focus should be on three key points: the movements of the U.S. carrier strike group, the status of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and whether Iran's uranium enrichment activities will resume. Any disturbance causes oil prices to jump immediately, and BTC and gold quickly follow the safe-haven rhythm.
In the short term, the ceasefire has brought some relief to the market, with oil prices under pressure, BTC taking a breather, and gold oscillating at high levels. But more likely, it was a delaying tactic—both sides were resupplying ammunition and gathering chips. The energy game took a halftime break, but the final whistle was far from over.
For us, right now, don't chase the rise or sell the dip; keep your positions well and keep plenty of ammunition. If peace really comes, oil prices will still fall; If he feigned a spear, the next wave would only be fiercer.$BTC Spot ETFs saw inflows of $33.79 million last week, while $ETH spot ETFs saw inflows of $104 million. ETH ETFs attract three times as much as BTC.
The Fear and Greed Index is 39 (fear), but ETF funds continue to flow in—institutions buy in fear, retail investors wait and see in fear.
ETH capital inflows led significantly, and with ETH rising 4.23% in a single day, the signal of capital rotation was confirmed. When ETH ETF inflows consistently exceed BTC, it is often a precursor to the altcoin season.
Historical pattern: ETF inflows + low fear index = medium-term positioning window. But it needs to be confirmed with increased volume.
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #以太坊 #ETFGuys, today's news is worth pausing to read for three seconds. Let's look at the data first: Strategy (Bitcoin's largest treasury): Holdings: 843,775 BTC Average cost: $75,476 per coin Current floating loss: $8.85 billion (-13.9%) Cash reserves: $3.75 billion, enough to pay 25 months of interest Recent status: Suspended Bitcoin holdings for one month, recently sold 3,588 BTC to cash out $216 million Bitmine (Ethereum largest treasury): Holdings: 5,787,414 ETH Average cost: $3,373 per coin Current unrealized loss: $8.247 billion (-42.2%) Staked: About 4.917 million ETH staked Recent status: Last week still bought 9,946 ETH at $1,897 What does this mean? The two most stubborn bulls—one paused buying, the other kept buying. Strategy's floating loss ratio is relatively smaller (-13.9%), but it has stopped buying and selling coins to cash out and pay interest. Bitmine lost even more deeply (-42.2%) but is still increasing its positions against the trend. When the biggest bulls start to pause and catch their breath, is it a bottom signal, or is a bigger storm still ahead? When even the most determined people start to waver, do you choose to trust the power of cycles, or follow the trend? This $17.1 billion unrealized loss is the faith these two companies bought with real money. But is it worth it?Shein is preparing to go public, with quarterly profit turning from a $395 million profit to a $99 million loss
After Changxin Memory's surge on its first day of listing, the Hong Kong stock market has welcomed another super IPO hotspot: Shein.
This company was once regarded as one of the most successful examples of cross-border e-commerce in China, with revenue expected to grow by about 8% by 2025, reaching $41.8 billion. However, net profit fell 39% to $2.06 billion. By the first quarter of 2026, the company recorded a loss of $99 million, compared to a profit of $395 million in the same period last year.
Growth continues, but profits suddenly turn negative, with the core reason being tariffs.
After the US canceled the duty-free policy for small parcels, Shein's cost advantage in low-cost direct mail was significantly weakened. U.S. business revenue declined year-on-year, and Europe may also increase import costs, with the U.S. and Europe together contributing more than half of the company's revenue.
This is also the most contradictory aspect of Shein's listing.
The market once treated it as a high-growth technology platform, willing to offer valuations close to $100 billion; But now, it increasingly resembles a traditional retail company that has to bear inventory, logistics, tariffs, and marketing costs.
Shein's current valuation is reportedly around $40 to $50 billion. The problem is, the company's operating profit margin in the first quarter has dropped to about 2.5%. If tariffs continue to erode profits, should this valuation be calculated based on technology platforms or ordinary clothing retailers?
For investors in the Hong Kong IPO market, Shein's brand awareness and market attention are certainly abundant; what truly requires caution is the issuance valuation.
A popular company doesn't mean a good price.
If IPO pricing is still based on rapid growth and recovery of high profit margins, sentiment may be strong on the first day, but subsequent profits will be continuously verified.
In short:
Shein's IPO isn't selling cheap clothes, but rather a growth story that's not cheap. Whether a company can go public is not difficult; the challenge is to use current profits to support a valuation of $40 to $50 billion. $ETH $BTC $SHIB Global Macro Guidance for July 27 - August 2: De-escalation of US-Iran tensions, US stock earnings as the main theme, economy and AI profits become two key validation chains!
This Week's Theme:
The US-Iran situation enters a turning and easing period, tension de-escalates, conventional games enter conventional play. AI enters the "earnings redemption week," the Federal Reserve enters a silent period, rate cut data will determine the pace of rate cuts, and global liquidity enters a fundamental trading mode!
1. The only main theme this week: US stock Q2 earnings, is AI really worth this valuation!
Focus on earnings this week: Microsoft, META, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, SK Hynix, and Samsung earnings reports will be released, representing key sectors of the AI industry chain including cloud computing, AI applications, consumer electronics, semiconductor design, storage, and wafer manufacturing. This will be the most critical week of the Q2 earnings season.
These companies basically represent half of the AI industry chain, and their earnings reports will trigger a key valuation adjustment for the entire AI ecosystem.
In the past six months, the market traded on AI's future; now, the market trades on AI profits. This is the biggest change in the AI ecosystem for Q2. At the same time, corporate earnings reports are an important risk market validation chain this week and a core of fundamental trading.
Earnings release schedule:
Thursday morning: SK Hynix earnings, before the Korean market opens
Thursday early morning: Microsoft, Meta, after US market close
Friday morning: Samsung Electronics, before Korean market opens
Friday early morning: Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, after US market close, Coinbase
2. Two validations: economic data to verify the Federal Reserve's rate decisions and current rate environment; earnings + economic growth to verify corporate investment confidence and AI return rate.
1. Macro data gradually validates AI valuation and interest rate environment
On Wednesday, July 29, the US second-quarter GDP preliminary estimate will show economic resilience, affecting subsequent interest rates and whether the current economy can validate AI valuation. High GDP growth may not benefit US stocks but could suppress rate cut space. The worst combination is strong GDP and high PCE with average earnings guidance, which will cause confidence in the US stock AI sector to decline.
Early morning July 30: Federal Reserve rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference. Rates are likely to remain unchanged. Focus on whether Powell's press conference and meeting minutes re-emphasize inflation risks, clarify that future policy has no preset path, or reserve space for a September rate hike or prolonged high rates.
Evening July 30: June PCE and core PCE. June CPI core inflation declined, easing market inflation concerns. However, recent energy price rebounds make it critical to see if June PCE further strengthens confidence in core inflation decline. If core PCE inflation remains sticky, short-term inflation and future inflation expectations concerns will increase, which is unfavorable for rate cuts and suppresses risk markets.
Morning July 31: Bank of Japan rate decision. The yen has been frequently volatile recently. Whether the BOJ will further raise rates will determine yen movement, US-Japan interest rate differentials, and financial market liquidity.
2. Energy prices + PCE inflation data + Fed stance + US Treasury yields + tech stock valuations form this week's macro pricing logic. GDP + PCE validate rate expectations; GDP and earnings validate whether US economic resilience can support AI market valuations.
3. Macro, geopolitical, and central bank transmission chain:
1. Energy affects inflation, which affects central banks. Geopolitical situations determine oil prices, oil prices guide inflation expectations, and inflation expectations change the rate adjustment attitudes of the US and global central banks.
2. This week, US-Iran tensions ease and de-escalate, so it is no longer the main theme. However, energy price fluctuations still impact important market expectations. Continued oil price rises or falls this week will directly affect rate market dynamic expectations.
Summary of this chapter:
After this week, we want to get three validation answers:
a. Do inflation and growth data strengthen or weaken high rate expectations?
b. Does tech corporate profit growth outpace capital expenditure growth?
c. Which dominates: rate pressure or profit improvement?
This week is a complex dual pricing week of policy and AI earnings fundamentals, especially for US stocks. Macro determines the ceiling, earnings determine the profit floor, and the industry chain determines structural differentiation.
Therefore, in this complex environment, global assets such as US Treasuries sensitive to rates, gold and the US dollar, US stocks sensitive to earnings, and #Bitcoin sensitive to both rates and risk appetite will face a high volatility risk environment.
Personal advice: observe more and validate more this week. Try not to make key decisions before all data validations are complete! #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
PS: Further observations on this week's corporate earnings will be added later! Since US stocks have entered a structural differentiation validation phase, earnings reports should not only be judged by whether they meet overall expectations. For the AI industry chain, one earnings report determines the overall volatility of upstream and downstream companies!📊 $XRP Liquidation Overview
$1.9195 million liquidated in 24 hours, with short liquidations at $1.0071 million accounting for 52.5% of the total, and long liquidations at $912,500, nearly balanced between longs and shorts. In the first 12 hours, long liquidations overwhelmed shorts (longs accounted for 95% in 1 hour, 98.5% in 4 hours), with prices continuously squeezing longs; however, in the 12-hour period, short liquidations of $480,100 began to surpass longs (38%), triggering a short squeeze; ultimately, shorts narrowly won in 24 hours. Liquidations concentrated in the 12-hour period (65.9%), with an increase of about $655,000 in the latter 12 hours, intensifying the long-short battle in the second half.
In summary: $XRP saw a long-short reversal in 24 hours, with shorts winning by a slight 52.5% margin, shifting the direction from long liquidation to short squeeze.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narrative entering the "validation season"—from the valuation frenzy of domestic storage, to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, to the earnings tests of tech giants, the market is re-evaluating whether the high investment model in AI can deliver high returns.
📈 ChangXin Technology IPO: The "Domestic Substitution" Frenzy with a 3.66 Trillion Market Cap
On July 27, domestic DRAM leader ChangXin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, with an issue price of ¥8.66/share, surging 471.59% at open, and a market cap briefly surpassing ¥3.66 trillion, overtaking ICBC as the largest A-share market cap. The IPO raised ¥66.6 billion, the largest since the STAR Market's inception. ChangXin expects net profit over ¥50 billion in the first half, with global market share rising from 3% to 8%. However, controversy is significant: SK Hynix's quarterly revenue is more than three times ChangXin's half-year revenue; technologically, it still lags about two generations and three years behind US and Korean giants. Whether the ¥3.66 trillion market cap marks the start of a super cycle or a peak moment is sharply debated. After ChangXin's listing, a clear capital siphoning effect appeared, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix each dropping about 4% intraday.
🏛️ Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Early Thursday: Rate Hike Expectations Stirring
The biggest macro variable this week—the Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from July 28 to 29. Economists almost unanimously expect no change, but interest rate futures market prices in a 36% chance of a rate hike. The divergence stems from oil prices—Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, with US-Iran conflicts raising geopolitical risk premiums, plus tariffs and massive AI spending, inflation pressures are rising again. This is Fed Chair Waller's second meeting; whether it will stage an "unexpected rate hike" will be revealed early Thursday.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon Earnings: AI "Burning Money" Model Under Scrutiny
This week Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon released earnings, with market focus aligned: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue? Whether Microsoft Azure can maintain growth above 40% is key. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $125-145 billion, questioning if AI investment erodes ad profits. Amazon AWS growth is expected to exceed 30% for the first time since 2022. Google and Tesla have already sounded alarms with their first-ever negative cash flow—AI is burning faster than expected.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core market contradictions today: ChangXin Technology's ¥3.66 trillion market cap is an extreme valuation of "domestic substitution + AI demand"; the Fed's rate decision is a tense game over "whether inflation will return"; tech giants' earnings are the ultimate test of "whether AI spending can be profitable." Valuation frenzy, policy shifts, and earnings validation mark the AI narrative's transition from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ 📈 Daily Market Brief | 2026.07.27 (Monday)
📌 In short
Risk asset sentiment clearly warmed today, mainly driven by the suspension of further military actions by the US and Iran, a sharp drop in crude oil, and Changxin Technology's strong performance on its first day of listing.
However, this is only the beginning of the "Super Week." The real decision for the next phase remains the Federal Reserve meeting and the earnings reports from the four tech giants.
📊 A quick overview of today's market trends
Continuing data from the 10 a.m. briefing:
$BTC: About $65,144, up about 1.1% in 24 hours
$ETH: Approximately $1,625
$HYPE: Approximately $63.35
Gold: approximately $4,108 per ounce
Brent crude oil: about $92.8, down more than 4%
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: approximately 4.63%
The most obvious change in the market today is that the decline in crude oil prices has temporarily eased inflation and rate hike pressure, with funds flowing back into risk assets.
🔥 Today's Most Noteworthy (Top 5)
(1) Changxin Technology goes public, market pricing exceeds expectations
Fact:
Changxin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market today:
Issue price: 8.66 yuan
Opening price: 49.50 yuan
Opening gain: approximately 471.6%
Closing price up about 465.8% from the issue price
The turnover on the first day was approximately 141.1 billion yuan
Changxin Technology performed exceptionally well on its first day, directly boosting sentiment in the STAR Market and semiconductor sectors.
My analysis:
Yesterday, we were concerned that the real price of Changxin A-shares after listing may be far lower than the perpetual CXMT Pre-IPO on HYPE, leading to a rapid decline in contracts.
Today's result was the opposite: the A-share market offered a high price, basically confirming the previously high expectations of the HYPE market.
This indicates that the pre-IPO market on Hyperliquid already has some price discovery capability, but the price gap between A-shares and CXMT perpetual cannot be interpreted as risk-free arbitrage, because there is still the following:
Oracle switching speed
Changes in the RMB exchange rate
A-share market closure time difference
Funding rate
Liquidity and liquidation risk
Changxin's first day of rise does not mean the logic of Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung, and SanDisk has ended. In the short term, the competitive landscape is repricing; in the long term, it depends on whether AI servers and data centers can continue to drive DRAM and HBM demand.
(2) Crude oil plunges, giving risk assets a temporary breather
The US and Iran have not launched new military strikes for two consecutive days, prompting markets to re-bet on diplomatic easing. Brent crude oil has retreated significantly after briefly breaking through $100 last week; The September contract once fell about 4.9% to near $92.
A drop in oil prices means:
Secondary inflationary pressures have decreased
Pressure on U.S. Treasury yields eased
Expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled
Tech stocks and cryptocurrency valuations are gaining support
But this is only a temporary withdrawal of geopolitical risk premiums, and does not mean the conflict is over.
If US-Iran negotiations break down again, or if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, oil prices could still rebound rapidly.
(3) BTC, ETH, and HYPE: Rebounds are worth watching, but not worth chasing
BTC returned to around $65,000 today, mainly benefiting from falling oil prices and a recovery in risk appetite.
However, this week the Fed and tech stocks have been intensively releasing earnings reports and macro data, so chasing the rally right now is not cost-effective.
Key BTC Insights:
Can the $64,200–$65,500 range be effectively broken
Will there be volume support after the breakout?
If it falls back into the range again, it is necessary to guard against a false breakout
ETH：
For now, it continues to follow BTC and tech stock sentiment, with no clear independent trend yet seen.
HYPE：
HYPE remains a highly elastic target I have been following for a long time. CXMT's IPO performance today once again proves that Hyperliquid is gradually expanding from a simple cryptocurrency trading platform to traditional asset, commodity, and pre-IPO markets.
However, this week HYPE was affected by BTC, tech stock sentiment, and CXMT contract pricing, with volatility likely to be significantly higher than BTC, so positions should not be overweight.
(4) The Fed enters the most critical pricing window
The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting from July 28 to 29, with policy results expected to be announced in the early hours of Thursday Beijing time.
This time, the market's focus is not just on whether interest rates will change, but more importantly on how the Federal Reserve assesses:
Secondary inflation caused by rising crude oil prices
US Treasury yields remain high
Is there still a possibility of rate hikes in the future?
The impact of AI data center investments on the economy, energy, and financing needs
Today's drop in oil prices is positive for the market, but a single day of pullback is not enough to prompt the Fed to immediately turn dovish.
(5) Tech giants' earnings will determine whether the AI main theme can continue
Microsoft and Meta will release earnings after the U.S. market closed on Wednesday; Apple and Amazon will release their earnings reports after Thursday's market close. Microsoft and Meta have confirmed the relevant arrangements on their official investor pages.
What the market is truly concerned about this time is:
Will AI capital spending continue to grow?
Can cloud computing and advertising revenue cover the huge investment?
Will management lower its guidance for future investments or revenue?
For Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, Samsung, and Changxin Technology, the AI capital expenditure guidance from tech giants is even more important than short-term stock price fluctuations.
🟡 Gold and silver
Gold today was supported by falling oil prices and falling U.S. Treasury yields, but may still fluctuate around $4,100.
Previously, gold had already broken through the daily downtrend line and pulled back. As long as the trendline structure does not break below again, a medium-term bullish observation can still be maintained.
Silver continues to follow sentiment toward gold and industrial metals, but volatility is generally higher than gold's, making it currently not suitable to chase gains in the middle of the range.
📅 Important calendar for this week
⭐ Wednesday to Thursday early morning
Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Federal Reserve Chair press conference
Microsoft financial report
Meta's financial report
⭐ Thursday to early Friday morning
Apple's financial report
Amazon financial report
U.S. GDP
PCE inflation data
⭐ Friday
Bank of Japan interest rate decision
China PMI
U.S. Employment Cost IndexETH is now at $2480, three real indicators to talk about
ETH/BTC hit a new low again
ETH's story is different from BTC's; its status as the king of clones is being challenged.
L2 TVL is $38 billion. Arbitrum + Optimism + Base account for 85%, with mainnet revenue being split.
Vitalik New Proposal EIP-7702. Account abstraction could reshape L1 economic models.
SOL has 40 million daily transactions. Compared to ETH mainnet's 800,000 transactions, SOL dominates in user activity.
Portfolio allocation is always more important than judging individual targets.
Buy in batches, don't go all in.
📌 Put this signal back into the ecological structure
ETH's price performance should not be judged solely by the mainnet candlestick; it is also necessary to observe L2 activity, staking ratio, ETF funds, and developer usage. A single quarterly outflow of funds does not mean the ecosystem loses value, but if activity, fees, and capital flow weaken in the long term, it is necessary to reassess the allocation ratio.
🧭 How will I track them?
First, observe whether ETH/BTC stops hitting new lows. Second, compare the real transaction demand between mainnet and major L2s. Third, confirm whether the yield is sufficient to compensate for smart contracts and liquidity risks. I would only consider increasing exposure if prices, capital, and demand for use all improve simultaneously.
⚠️ Risk reminders
On-chain activity may be amplified in the short term by incentive programs, and ETF flows will also be affected by macroeconomic conditions. Don't treat weekly data as a long-term trend, and don't heavily invest in a single asset just because of a narrative.
🎯 The final execution framework
Treat ETH as part of the portfolio, and write down the maximum position and exit conditions in advance; Before the market gives confirmation, holding cash itself is also an option.
I'll break this topic down into three layers. The first layer is data that can be directly observed. First, record values, time, and direction, avoiding jumping to conclusions based on just one screenshot; The second layer is how the market reacts: data improves but prices remain unchanged, and weakening data but prices still rise—the meaning is completely different; The third layer is your own operations: first write down your maximum tolerable loss, then decide whether to adjust your position. This sequence may seem slow, but it helps reduce being carried away by a single headline.
For me, mainnet usage, L2 activity, and capital flow should be compared in the same table. Each update only changes the parts with new evidence; a single change in number cannot overturn the entire judgment. If the three observation directions contradict each other, I would downgrade the conclusion to 'waiting for confirmation' rather than forcing a bullish or bearish story. The most easily overlooked cost in the market is determining it too early and then refusing to admit that the assumption has failed.
In practice, I first use observation positions to test and wait until at least two of the trading volume, price, and fundamentals are aligned in the same direction, then consider increasing exposure; If volatility increases or liquidity thins, reduce your position first. Any backtesting, historical cases, or KOL perspectives can only be used to establish hypotheses and cannot replace current risk checks. This article is my research notes, not buy or sell orders that guarantee profits.$APE ApeCoin (APE) is a mainstream project with a stronger background but currently experiencing the pains of ecological transformation.
Its price performance is somewhat disconnected from the project's fundamentals, with both opportunities and challenges ahead
Holders can participate in ecosystem decision-making through ApeCoin DAO
Yuga Labs' metaverse project Otherside, as well as the native currency of the dedicated chain ApeChain, are used for payments and on-chain interactions
ApeChain's on-chain data reflects a lack of ecosystem vitality.
Currently, there are only about 10,000 daily active addresses, daily transaction fees as low as $145, and total value locked (TVL) has plummeted over 80% from its peak to $4.5–5.7 million.
This indicates that, aside from the NFT hype, no new applications can support sustained on-chain demand
PeCoin and AKE have completely different risk profiles.
AKE is a micro project heavily controlled by whales, while APE is a well-known project facing the challenge of "ecosystem implementation."
Its future does not depend on short-term capital speculation, but on whether NFTs can be born on ApeChain,
Whether killer apps that truly attract users and Yuga Labs' Otherside metaverse can succeed
Shanhe suggests waiting and waiting for now: wait for the trend to become clear before making preparations
$BEAT #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables Before regulatory documents were released, eight people siphoned off $80 million by buying options through a "front-running...... How can retail investors catch these "rat warehouses" in advance?
According to Caixin's latest disclosure, the number of locked accounts in the Futu/Tiger insider trading case has risen to 310. The most brutal part was the extreme concentration of profits: just before regulators released the rectification notice, only eight traders made large-scale short-term puts on Futu and Tiger, precisely withdrawing $80 million in one wave!
Whether in the US stock market or the Web3 market, this kind of "capital moves before the news comes out" is common. Insider information cannot be accessed by retail investors, but unusual options activity on the options chain is public and cannot be concealed.
To catch clues of this kind of smart money before the "black swan" lands, these three anomaly monitoring tools and core logic must be mastered:
Unusual Whales
Currently, it is one of the most comprehensive tools for tracking large US stock options orders and dark pools. Focus on Sweep Orders and Deep Out-of-Value (OTM) short-term put options far from the current price. These "rushing to close without regard to cost" major options orders often mean that funds have received certain news.
Barchart / MarketChameleon (Free Number Filter)
If you don't want paid software, Barchart's free options movement rankings are sufficient. Filter by Vol/OI (volume/open interest) ratio of > 3x. A stock that usually shows no fluctuations suddenly sees short-term put volume several times the open interest, which is very likely to cause trouble.
On-chain Derivatives Monitoring (Dune / Lookonchain)
Web3 players feel the same way. In Deribit or on-chain derivatives protocols, monitoring changes in large put options positions via the Dune Dashboard or keeping a close eye on sudden high-multiplier short positions in Smart Money wallets before major announcements.
Pitfall Warning:
Option fluctuations are not 100% copying trading signals; many large orders are normal hedging operations for institutional positions. Don't get carried away and immediately open short positions at the sight of huge puts; The correct use is to use it as a minesweeper and risk warning indicator—when a position shows abnormal short positions without warning, it should first avoid risk or take appropriate precautions.You can probably feel how bearish the current market is. Let me share a few sets of data to help you understand: The current total cryptocurrency market cap is about 2.32 trillion per month, down about 47% from the October 2025 peak$BTC the current $60,500, down 48% from the 2025 all-time high$ETH and currently $1k5, down about 67% from the peak. CEX spot trading volume fell 39.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q1. So, what is the future path for web3, or crypto? I have researched, analyzed, and summarized several directions that may lead the next bull market. You can position your position in advance based on your own situation and preferences. Stablecoins and payments. The stablecoin sector is probably the most certain and most likely to become the main theme in the industry. Because stablecoins solve very specific problems, such as slow cross-border remittances, limited banking hours, and crypto transactions requiring 24-hour asset settlement. Stablecoins have moved from being US dollars substitutes on exchanges into traditional payment networks, with very clear payment needs. For example, the commonly used U Card eliminates the hassle of withdrawals. Visa stated that as of March 2026, its stablecoin settlement business will operate at an annualized scale of about $7 billion. So, where exactly are stablecoins actually used? 1. Cross-border settlement for businesses, such as a Singaporean company paying a supplier in the US. Traditional models may include: bank wire transfer, intermediary, and business day limits100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD were transferred into the scammer's wallet, which happened to be scraped by Gate Alpha and later transferred to Gate Alpha for airdrop.
Hash checkable.
After the payment was successfully listed, Gate stated that the intermediaries were not employees.
The project successfully landed on Gate—who is responsible for its credibility?Miners are under pressure, but I won't just buy the dip because of this signal.
This round of miner profitability has entered an extreme phase: Hash Ribbons are still in the capitulation phase, some miners are selling coins to repay debts, or shifting energy resources to AI data centers.
Historically, this cleansing eliminated high-cost hash power and provided fertile ground for medium- to long-term bottoms; However, "starting to capitulate" does not mean "capitulation is over," and during the release of selling pressure, prices may continue to weaken.
My confirmation order is:
Hash was the first to stabilize its decline;
Difficulty gradually stabilized after adjustment;
$BTC Regain the 67K level, then consider increasing risk exposure accordingly.
If the price effectively breaks below the 60K support range, first control risk and avoid telling stories with miner data.
Don't treat on-chain indicators as buy buttons. A truly reliable bottom requires both miner data and price structure to improve simultaneously.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower Gate的意思是：我们按照合同约定付的100000usdt和800,000 ALD到了“骗子”钱包的同时，恰巧Gate的alpha自动抓取了ALD代币，然后不能公开谁对接上币对接流程，最后骗子钱包转进了Gate alpha进行空投，是这样的吗？
哈希在这里，答案在这里
当一个项目付了钱、上了币、然后被告知“跟你沟通的人不是我们的人，并且项目登陆Gate”——这已经是Gate的公信力问题了The bull and bear cycles in the crypto market have never been a collective celebration of broad gains, but rather a clear and brutal underlying logic. Countless market data and cycle patterns confirm a core fact: sporadic speculation on coins can never attract off-exchange incremental capital; only Bitcoin's sustained and significant rise can leverage massive off-market capital inflows, activate market-wide liquidity, and ultimately give rise to a true crypto bull market; The frequent on-chain rally and local rallies of altcoins are just short-term episodes caused by investors growing frustrated by the competition of existing funds, and are by no means signals of a bull market start. Many ordinary investors fall into misconceptions, taking short-term surges in altcoins and slight rebounds in on-chain trading volume as signs of a bull market, blindly following trends to speculate on various niche coins. But looking at the crypto market's development over more than a decade, all truly comprehensive bull markets have been driven by the future from altcoins to Bitcoin's value breakthrough and market strength. The fundamental difference between the two is that altcoins can only mobilize existing market capital, while only Bitcoin has the core ability to absorb off-exchange incremental funds, and incremental capital is the core foundation supporting large-scale bull markets. From the market capital structure and institutional layout data, the choice of capital has long been clearly defined. Currently, compliant crypto ETF funds are extremely concentrated. Data shows that the total net asset value of Bitcoin ETFs has reached $115 billion, making them the absolute macro core asset in the global compliant crypto market; Meanwhile, the total net asset value of Ethereum ETFs is only $18.2 billion, showing a huge disparity in scale, especially regarding various counterfeit assetsChangxin Technology IPO Impact Analysis Brief on the Global Storage Sector
Report Date: July 27, 2026
I. Key Conclusions
1. There is a significant valuation bubble in the current US storage sector: Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk have surged 7-10 times from the bottom of this cycle, with the market forcibly assigning AI growth stock valuations based on peak profits at the cycle top, seriously deviating from the historical valuation patterns of the strong storage industry cycle.
2. Changxin Technology listed with a market value of 3.31 trillion yuan on the first day, which does not change the global storage supply-demand pattern in the short term but fundamentally breaks the market consensus of "three oligarchs permanently controlling prices," becoming a direct catalyst for the return of high valuations.
3. Impact differentiation: fundamental impact is greatest on Micron, emotional valuation impact is greatest on SanDisk, and SK Hynix is relatively resilient.
4. Sector outflows mainly rotate within US stocks, with only a small portion diverted to gold and cryptocurrencies; US stock market likely to open 1%-3% lower on sentiment, with low probability of a single-day crash and significant internal differentiation.
II. Current Valuation Status of the Storage Sector: Significant Bubble
2.1 Core Data Comparison of Key Targets
Target Latest Market Cap Increase from Cycle Bottom Core Valuation Metrics Business Structure
Micron Technology (MU) About $104 billion Over 800% increase in the past year Dynamic PE about 20x DRAM 76%, HBM market share 21%
SK Hynix (ADR) About $78 billion About 8x increase from bottom Dynamic PE about 12x DRAM 83%, HBM market share 57% (world's first)
SanDisk (SNDK) About $21.26 billion 781% increase since spin-off listing PE TTM 48.36x Pure NAND flash, no DRAM business
Changxin Technology (A-share) 3.31 trillion RMB (about $457 billion) First day up 465.82% from issue price Dynamic PE about 22x (2026 forecast) 100% general DRAM, global market share about 7.7%
2.2 Core Logic of Valuation Bubble
1. Cycle valuation trap: Storage is a typical strong cyclical industry, with reasonable PE at historical peak only 5-10x. Current profits are at cycle peak (DRAM prices up over 300% since end of 2024), profits are unsustainable, but the market assigns 20-48x PE as AI growth stocks, causing serious valuation misalignment.
2. Insufficient demand support: 90% of this round's storage price increase comes from coordinated production cuts by the three oligarchs, only 10% from shipment growth; downstream AI commercialization is below expectations, cloud providers' capital expenditure growth far exceeds revenue growth, computing power demand is bubble-like and cannot support high storage prices long-term.
3. Expectations severely overdrawn: Micron's trillion-dollar market cap has priced in all HBM price increase benefits for the next 3 years in advance; even if profits remain high, the stock price lacks room to rise and any negative factor may trigger profit-taking.
III. Impact Ranking of Changxin Listing on the Three Major Overseas Manufacturers
3.1 Fundamental Impact: Micron > SK Hynix >> SanDisk
- Micron: Greatest impact
Micron is the most dependent on the Chinese market among the three, with general DRAM (consumer and entry-level server) as its core business, highly overlapping with Changxin's main business. After Changxin's fundraising and capacity expansion, domestic substitution will accelerate, directly eroding Micron's market share in China; also, Micron's high proportion of general DRAM capacity means it is most directly affected by the industry's long-term pricing power shift downward.
- SK Hynix: Limited impact
Core profit comes from high-end HBM, capacity locked by cloud providers' long-term orders until end of 2027; Changxin cannot break this technical barrier in the short term, so high-margin core business is unaffected, only general DRAM is pressured, with a fundamental safety cushion.
- SanDisk: No direct impact
SanDisk is a pure NAND flash manufacturer; Changxin does not involve NAND business (domestic NAND leader is Yangtze Memory), so no direct business competition; decline is entirely due to sector sentiment drag.
3.2 Emotional Valuation Impact: SanDisk > Micron > SK Hynix
- SanDisk: Heaviest selling pressure
48x PE is the extreme manifestation of the sector bubble, fully relying on the narrative of "AI driving flash demand explosion," without oligopoly or technical barriers as hard support. Once sector sentiment cools, profit-taking will concentrate, with a decline significantly greater than the other two.
- Micron: High valuation reversion pressure
Trillion-dollar market cap is based on the core assumption of "three oligarchs coordinating production cuts and price hikes continuing until 2028." Changxin as an independent fourth player breaks this consensus, the long-term profit ceiling is pierced, and valuation midpoint must converge from growth stock to cyclical stock.
- SK Hynix: Relatively resilient
Has retreated over 40% from the high since July, negative factors already fully priced in; HBM technical barriers and real orders provide support, and it will stabilize first after sentiment release.
IV. Capital and Sentiment Transmission Path
1. Breaking the oligopoly price control belief (core long-term logic)
Previously, storage stock valuation premiums essentially assumed the three giants could permanently maintain high prices through coordinated production cuts. Changxin has domestic substitution policy support, capacity expansion is not constrained by the three giants' production cut rhythm, which will lower the industry's average gross margin and price hike cycle length long-term, leading to continuous valuation downward adjustment.
2. Passive rebalancing of index funds
Global semiconductor and storage indices will gradually include Changxin, passive funds will rigidly reduce Micron and Hynix holdings to allocate to Changxin, with scale reaching tens of billions of dollars. This rebalancing is a long-term slow variable, not completed in a single day, but will continuously suppress the rebound space of US storage stocks.
3. Concentrated profit-taking at high levels
Storage stocks have surged greatly, with strong profit-taking demand; Changxin's listing becomes a clear selling excuse, and speculative funds will use the negative news to concentrate selling.
Storage likely to open lower tonight, may see a low open and pullback, rise and fall, no one-sided surge $MU $SKHYNIX $SNDK
Leave your comments, what are your views? #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 What Gate means is: the 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD we paid according to the contract arrived in the "scammer's" wallet, and coincidentally, Gate's alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens, so the process couldn't be disclosed who connected to the token. In the end, the scammer's wallet was transferred to Gate alpha for an airdrop. Is that how it works?
Hash is here, the answer is here
When a project pays for it, registers tokens, and is then told "the person communicating with you is not one of us, and the project is logged into Gate"—this is already a credibility issue for GateThe Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision early Thursday morning. Everyone is guessing—will they raise rates or not? Hawkish or dovish?
But you might not have noticed: the market has already "voted" before the meeting even started.
Let's start with oil prices.
Last week, Brent crude briefly surged past $100 per barrel. The market panicked—"Second inflation wave is coming! The Fed will hike rates to death!"
What happened? Iran and the US paused mutual attacks over the weekend, raising hopes for a ceasefire. Oil prices crashed 5% at Monday's open, with Brent dropping to around $92 and WTI falling below $85.
The biggest inflation bomb defused itself before the FOMC meeting.
Now, employment.
Last week's initial jobless claims came in at 187,000.
What does that mean? The lowest record since 1969.
Economists had predicted a median of 210,000. The actual number was 23,000 lower than expected.
In plain language: companies are not laying off workers. The economy is not in recession. The Fed doesn't need to cut rates early to save the market.
Now consider this combination:
Oil prices fall → Inflation expectations cool → Pressure on US Treasury yields to fall eases
Strong employment → Economy "no landing" → Fed doesn't need emergency easing
What the market fears most is never "no rate cut," but "forced rate hikes."
Now that oil prices have collapsed and the inflation bomb has defused itself—how urgent is the need to raise rates?
Where is Bitcoin now?
Around $65,000.
The Fear and Greed Index has risen from the month's low to about 39. Although still in the "fear" zone, it's relatively high for the month.
The options market is even more direct—large call options are betting on BTC surging to $72,000 after the FOMC.
Smart money is already pricing in the "oil price drop" factor.
So, is Thursday's FOMC important?
Yes. But what's important is not "whether to raise rates"—all 76 economists expect rates to remain unchanged.
What's important is the "expectation gap."
CME data shows the market sees a 36.3% chance of a rate hike in July and 55.2% in September. But Renaissance Macro's chief economist Dutta bluntly said—"Why not raise rates now?"
If Fed's Waller speaks hawkishly, saying "inflation risks remain on the upside"—the market will reprice.
If Waller acknowledges slowing inflation and falling oil prices—then $65,000 becomes the new floor.
To be honest:
Most people focus on the volatility on FOMC day.
But the real game is "before the meeting."
Oil prices have already fallen, employment data is out, and BTC has returned to 65k.
Don't chase after the FOMC announcement.
The meeting day is more about realizing good news or exhausting bad news.
True alpha is seeing it before others are still guessing.*Setup $PONS*
- Mua: $127.3K ở MCAP ∼$8.03M → cầm 15.8M $PONS
- Đã chốt: +$135.7K realized
- Còn lại: +$89.1K unrealized
- Tổng PnL: +$98.9K (+36.07%) 💰
*Stats*
- Win Rate: 47.46% → không cao nhưng ăn to
- Balance giờ chỉ còn 0.006 ETH $12.31 → đã rút/xoay gần hết
Cách chơi: all-in sớm, chốt lời nhanh, để lại 1 phần chạy lãi 📈
Kiểu "sniper + scale out" điển hình của smart money
Cảnh báo: ví mới + size lớn = rủi ro rug/insider cao ⚠️
Đừng đuổi theo blind. Theo dõi dòng tiền tiếp theo thì ok hơn ❤️Tonight's Fed meeting, stop guessing the interest rate, guess people's minds instead
Interest rate? Definitely won't change. Who doesn't know that?
What really makes me uneasy is that with Warsh taking office, this is the first real showdown—not about whether to raise rates, but whether after the showdown they still let you "peek at the answers" in advance.
I've been trading for so many years, and what I fear most isn't volatility, it's when the rules get changed.
Powell's approach was basically "spoiler management": speeches, dot plots, various leaks, giving you the next three months' events in advance. The market was like anesthetized, volatility suppressed tightly, everyone comfortably lying flat and making money.
Now Warsh is here, tearing up the script. "Don't ask me, ask the data."
In plain language: from now on, don't expect to live off the Fed's leftovers. Every nonfarm payroll, every CPI, every initial jobless claim could smash or pump the market.
This isn't just an interest rate cycle issue; it's a reset of the entire pricing logic.
Today, I don't care about those 25 basis points at all—I only focus on three things, which are worth ten thousand times more than the interest rate number:
First, how Warsh "qualifies" inflation. Does he stubbornly say "transitory," or does he admit "sticky"? The former is reassurance, the latter is a warning. Changing one word in wording can shake rate cut expectations. Don't listen to his chatter, listen to which word he emphasizes.
Second, whether he still gives a "preview of the next episode." If the statement even deletes nonsense like "patiently wait," that's a naked way of telling you: guess yourself from now on, I'm not playing anymore. From that day, volatility premium must be re-evaluated, don't say I didn't warn you.
Third, whether the balance sheet reduction is mentioned. Interest rates are the open gun, balance sheet reduction is the hidden arrow. Taking 95 billion out of the system monthly—that's the knife hanging over AI and BTC. Not mentioning it doesn't mean nothing's happening; mentioning it means breaking the window paper directly.
My strategy has always been one sentence: don't bet on the news, bet on how the market reprices the news.
Tonight's fattest move probably won't be at 2:00 when the rate is announced—but at 2:30, the second Warsh opens his mouth to answer the first question.
At that moment, the market jumps from "known" to "unknown," chaos arises, spreads arise, and money is just waiting there to be picked up.
I won't rush to bet on direction; I only do one thing: clear my positions clean, wait for the market to screw up first, then I go in to pick up the scraps.
Because I know clearly, in this market that no longer hands you the answers, patience is worth a hundred times judgment, reaction is ten thousand times more reliable than prediction.
Wait for the wind, move after the wind stops.
Stop talking, watch the market.
$ETH $BTC$SKHYNIX 明天就是业绩发布日 市场一致预期二季度营业利润冲到64万亿韩元 同比暴增快600% 这个数字什么概念 光上半年营业利润就破了100万亿 超过去年全年 但有意思的是 股价从高点已经跌了30%以上 就是因为油价的飙涨和地缘局势把市场吓懵了 现在美伊传来停火消息 油价暴跌7个点 压在半导体头上最大的一块石头松动了$BTC $ETH 历史规律就摆在那 每次海力士放出创纪录业绩 股价大概率都要往上冲一波 这票的基本面从来没出问题 是外部因素在压着它 一旦外部压力解除 业绩就是最硬的底气 现在看 财报数字是明牌 停火预期在发酵 机构还在等待更多催化剂 机会窗口已经出来了 真金白银的业绩摆在这 市场迟早要重新定价 你上不上车自己定#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ The underlying logic behind the recent strengthening of the storage sector
The storage sector has been steadily recovering recently, and this is not a short-term speculative theme. Based on industry chain research and institutional data, three core drivers can be identified.
1. Demand side is completely reshaped by AI computing power cycles. A single AI server is equipped with 8 to 10 times the DRAM capacity of a traditional server. By 2026, the demand share for server DRAM will exceed 50% for the first time, surpassing mobile phones to become the largest consumer market. Cloud providers continue to sign long-term locked supply agreements, stabilizing and underpinning demand.
2. Supply side faces structural shortages. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are allocating 70% of new advanced capacity to high-margin HBM, squeezing general DRAM capacity. TrendForce data shows that DRAM contract prices rose 58%-63% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026. Industry inventory has fallen to a near five-year low, and the construction cycle for new wafer capacity is as long as two years. The supply-demand gap will last at least until 2027.
3. Sentiment receives a catalyst. ChangXin Technology's listing on the capital market is estimated to have a valuation of 2 to 3 trillion yuan, opening the valuation ceiling for domestic storage and driving a value re-rating for upstream and downstream equipment and material companies.
It is worth noting that the price increase in Q3 is expected to significantly narrow. This round is a structural boom, not a broad-based price rise. Storage demand related to consumer electronics remains weak, and capital will continue to focus on AI computing power-related targets. #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 $NVDA is playing 1 huge 🔥 move
*According to the WSJ:*
- NVIDIA negotiates $250B guarantee for OpenAI data center in Ohio
- This is part of a deal with SoftBank to build the largest data center in the United States
- Total project cost can be up to $500B
- NVIDIA will "guarantee financing vehicles" for the whole cluster
*Why $NVDA do that?*
1. *Customer Key*: Ensure OpenAI + SoftBank only buys NVIDIA chips
2. *AI arms race*: Who owns compute = who wins the AI game
3. *Turn CAPEX into revenue*: Financial guarantee → sell $500B GPU/switch over the next 5-10 years
This is no longer "selling graphics cards" 🧠
$NVDA is becoming a bank + infrastructure company + AI company
Risk: $250B backstop is crazy. What if the project fails?
Reward: If AI is really the "new electricity", NVIDIA has just embraced the grid
The market will read this as extremely bullish news for $NVDA 🚀
Do you think this $500B data center is really necessary, or is it FOMO?
$BTC In the scope, the monthly trading volume of RWA perpetual contracts surged from 85 billion to 470 billion in just six months. This is not market volatility; it's a collective breath change among the prey— a signal that the whales are surfacing. A 450% increase feels like the concentrated impact zone after ballistic correction, and SPCX stands out alone, surging to 66 billion, as the crosshair locks onto the fattest prey. The growth rate of US stock token perpetual contracts is seven times that of commodities, indicating capital shifting from risk aversion to risk-taking, with clear targets and a defined movement path.
The humidity meter under the camouflage suit tells me the wind bias is changing. OKX and two other strongholds account for over 80% of the trading volume, evidence of concentrated firepower—the big fish only pass through the deepest channels. The linkage depth of XUSAR has been repeatedly calibrated by market data: every TDK (top confirmation signal) can find a corresponding position on-chain. I don't care about short-term skirmishes; I only care whether the target enters the 500-meter fixed distance ring—orders with a risk-reward ratio below three to one won't let my finger leave the safety.
After six months of lurking, the impact zone gradually narrows. When the scale of perpetual contracts begins to cover traditional assets, it means the next positional battle has already planted reconnaissance posts. The crosshair in the scope quietly aims at the moving shadow—wind direction, distance, breathing, everything is ready. The only thing to do now is to keep my finger hovering, waiting for the system to give the final confirmation command.
The target is already in sight, heart rate drops to forty-eight beats per minute. #RWAPerpsHit470B $DGB (DigiByte) rose +19.49% today, with the core narrative being the official launch of the decentralized stablecoin DigiDollar on July 17. Users can mint DigiDollar by locking DGB, which directly reduces the circulating supply of DGB and creates a natural "lock-up is deflation" mechanism. According to Coindar data, only 12.5% of DGB's supply remains unreleased. DigiByte itself is a well-established POW public chain launched in 2014, using five different mining algorithms and the Odocrypt deformation algorithm, which are adjusted every 10 days to enhance security; A block is generated every 15 seconds, 40 times faster than Bitcoin. The DGB community has long been discussing fast, low-fee payments and network upgrades. Recently, the coin price has broken out of a long-term upward channel with increased volume, and trading volume has surged in tandem. With high chip concentration and small circulating share, it is very easy for speculative capital to break out of a pulse market after entering the market—today is a typical case of "old trees sprouting new shoots." The adoption and promotion of DigiDollar is the core short-term logic behind DGB's rise.Logic is always right 👏 Korea is just an "echo" of Friday's sell-off
*Summary of the situation:*
- *KOSPI -4%+ at open* because it closed while the US was selling hard 😵
- *$Samsung + $SK Hynix -5%+* → sentiment for HBM/GPU cooled immediately
*The most important thing you said is correct:* Korea no longer leads the AI wave
The real signal lies in *AI CapEx of Big Tech* 🇺🇸
*2 scenarios this week:*
1. *Bull case*: MSFT, GOOGL, META still burning money on data centers + buying GPU/HBM → this drop is just a healthy correction 🚀
2. *Bear case*: They cut spending or AI growth misses → semis face another round of valuation cuts 📉
In the short term, I’m also "cautiously bearish" like you. 2 years of hot growth + interest rates + geopolitics = easy to test the bottom
Long term still a war for compute. As long as data centers keep being built, $NVDA, HBM, advanced packaging are still needed
Agree: This is a reset, not the end of the AI rally 🧠
What CapEx level are you watching to confirm the bull continues?
$BTC 🚨 $TRUMP Treasury is moving again
*On-chain:*
- Just transferred 16.91M $TRUMP → Fireblocks 📦
- This wallet also pushed to BitGo
- Total of the last 5 months: 48.25M $TRUMP = ∼$172.4M over 3 large batches
*Read the taste:*
Fireblocks + BitGo = custody wallet for institutional/OTC/MM. No need to sell retail on the exchange right away
High likelihood: preparing liquidity, dealing with MM, or allocating to team/investor unlock 🔍
You're right: *"The next destination matters more than the transfer"*
If from Fireblocks → CEX, selling pressure
If you lie in custody, it's just fund management
With meme political coins, treasury cash flow = strongest signal
Track where 👀 the next wallet goes
What do you think is this preparation for the event or just a regular rebalancing?
$BTC BTC bottom detection indicator update: a true bottom confirmation signal has not yet been triggered.
I have built a BTC cycle bottom detection model that comprehensively observes ETF capital flows, price structure, US stock risk appetite, pressure from the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, on-chain chip changes, and market sentiment.
Currently, positive signals are indeed increasing:
ETF funds are flowing back in, indicating institutional buying is starting to recover; on-chain data shows long-term holders have not sold off massively, and chips are gradually transferring from short-term panic sellers to long-term holders.
But the problem is that several key conditions have not yet resonated.
Although BTC has rebounded and formed a certain high-low point structure, it has not undergone enough time for verification; on the macro level, US Treasury yields remain relatively high, and the liquidity environment has not fully shifted; market sentiment has only recovered from "extreme panic" to "cautious observation," still far from a true return of risk appetite.
So currently, it looks more like a bottom-building phase rather than a bottom confirmation phase.
We cannot even rule out the possibility that:
The market is creating a feeling of "the bottom has arrived" for everyone, only to trigger one last panic washout.
Historically, many major cycle bottoms did not form when everyone agreed, but appeared after the last wave of disappointment and the last batch of people cutting losses.
What is missing now may not be good news, but a thorough emotional cleansing.
My judgment: the bottom is getting closer, but the confirmation button has not yet been pressed.
The true bottom is not a price that falls out, but a resonance where capital, chips, sentiment, and macro factors all align simultaneously. We are still missing the last few pieces of the puzzle. Looking back at the development of $SOL, it's like the transformation from underground gambling to compliant online gambling. Early on, the chain was flooded with various meme coins, high-frequency human-machine trading, and a chaotic, crowded market.
Speculative players couldn't tolerate the lag and high transaction costs, forcing Solana to refine ultra-high concurrency transaction performance, while wallets and liquidity support quickly improved.
In the early days, meme coins dominated the ecosystem, but now regulated and compliant prediction markets, tokenized stocks, and stablecoin payments have all been implemented. The underlying trading technology honed through speculative battles is being absorbed and reused by traditional finance.
Solana is essentially bringing the high-performance trading engine, verified by casinos, to the 7×24-hour global financial market. The meme coin craze is not its end, but the harshest real-world stress test before traditional capital enters the scene. Bitcoin Market Analysis and Forecast Flash:
[BTC returns to 65K, but volume hasn't caught up; both bulls and bears hold their positions and wait for FOMC to decide the direction]
Brothers and sisters, BTC rebounded from 63,800 over the weekend back above 65,000, surged to 65,555 on Monday, then pulled back to a narrow range of consolidation around 65,200.
But a closer look at the market reveals a few odd points:
1. Price rebound rebounds rely on news of a US-Iran ceasefire, not on buying!
Over the weekend, the US and Iran paused their mutual attacks, causing oil prices to plunge more than 5% from $100, and BTC rebounded accordingly. However, ETF funds saw net inflows of only $33.79 million last week, compared to $75.7 million and $197.4 million in the previous two weeks, showing a decline in inflows. BlackRock IBIT saw a weekly outflow of 95.9 million, with over 400 million combined over Thursday and Friday. Baillard has now become the main bear force!
2. Long/short volume continues to shrink
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw weekly trading volume of $8.05 billion, the lowest since October 2024, down 14% from the previous week. Additionally, net Bitcoin inflows from major players to exchanges have plummeted 44% from their peak in mid-June.
At the 4-hour level, both bulls and bears are evenly matched, but both are weak, and both sides are cautious; Daily trading volume is also quite sluggish, and the current market price movements are all based on news updates.
3. FOMC is the largest variable
At 2:30 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision. CME FedWatch shows a 31.5% probability of a rate hike in July, with just over 10% at the start of the month. All 104 economists held their expectations steady, yet the futures market priced in over 30% of interest rate hikes, showing huge divergence.
4. Direction prediction and optimal trading strategies
(1) The daily trading volume from July 1 to July 27 still shows a volume-price divergence, indicating that the bulls are not strong and the offensive is not sustainable;
(2) Looking at the four-hour long volume fluctuation curve from July 1 to July 27, bullish volume is gradually declining, with no main or secondary volume observed in the past week; overall, it is weak and weak.
(3) ETF institutional funds saw net outflows of about 220 million yuan for two consecutive days, with Baylord leading the way as the main bear force and ETF institutions retreating;
(4) The probability of rate hike expectations has slightly increased, and the clear bill is highly unlikely to pass—these two are potential negative factors.
(5) Bitcoin prices have rebounded to around 65,500, close to previous highs, indicating weak bullish momentum and limited upside potential.
Based on these five factors, I predict that Bitcoin is generally bearish and weak, with a relatively high probability of a subsequent downward pullback. If the price surges because of news, it is not a trend reversal but a price impulse triggered by the news. It is not suitable for chasing highs, but rather to reduce positions or position short positions on rallies.
Key locations:
(1) Above: resistance at 65,500-65,800; a breakout could target 66,500-67,000;
(2) Below: support at 64,200-64,300; if it falls below 63,000-63,500,
Best strategy: wait and see before the FOMC takes effect. After the FOMC is implemented, below 67,500, short selling is mainly on rallies.Looking back at history, it's clear that fake news often emerges before major nodes in the crypto world, causing chaos in the market. Back then, on the eve of the Bitcoin $BTC spot ETF approval, there were two blunders:
In October 2023, Cointelegraph unreviewed and forwarded a forged screenshot of the Bloomberg terminal, falsely claiming the SEC had approved BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. Bitcoin surged 7%-8% to hit $30,000, but after the rumor was debunked, the market plunged, and futures market liquidations exceeded $100 million; In January 2024, the SEC's official social media account was hacked, and a false approval announcement was issued, triggering another intense market turmoil.
Now that the Clarity Act has entered a critical window period, there is also a risk of false information spreading and causing sharp market fluctuations. Interestingly, this kind of short-term chaos often dampens market sentiment, which actually creates room for subsequent real market gains. #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过 yes, this sounds easy but hard to spill 😂
*Mathematics:*
$10 → $20 → $40 → ... → $81,920 after 13 BTC all-ins on Polymarket
Missing another 18k is a full $100k. All-in 1 more handicap to come
*Reality:*
Probability = $1/8192$ = 0.012%
That is, you need 8192 people to try, only 1 person eats 100k. 8191 people lose $10
It's the "skill-based lottery" of crypto:
It's small, the dopamine is big, and the feeling of "I only need to get it right 13 times"
Polymarkets win in that every time you lose $10, they charge a fee. The more people who dream 13 times, the richer they will be.
Not to say that it can't be done. Some people can do it.
But don't all-in psychologically in it 🧘
Are you testing the chain or just seeing this meme go viral?
$BTC These 6 news stories combined = 1 pretty clear picture of this 👀 week
*(1) AI Kill Switch Act*
The US wants Homeland Security to have a button to "turn off" frontier AI. A fine of $20M/day for failure to listen.
The reason: fear of AI losing control. The consequence: AI labs + data centers will be managed like the energy industry. Putting pressure on $NVDA, cloud providers
*(2) RWA Wins Crypto on Hyperliquid*
For the first time, stocks, commodities, and indices have the largest volume > crypto on the decentralized derivatives exchange.
ARK said "change the game". Signal: institutional cash flows are coming in via RWA instead of shitcoin. Bullish for tokenization
*(3) Samsung Wallet + USDC*
Samsung teased a wallet with USDC right on Galaxy Unpacked. Few details but big significance: 3 billion phone users may have default stablecoin wallets
$USDC has 1 more giant retail gateway
*(4) Claude Opus 5 is cheaper but more powerful than Fable 5*
Anthropic "cannibalizes" its own products. Cheap 1/2, benchmark score is higher than most
AI war = cost war. Whoever is cheap + good will win the developer
*(5) Clarity Act jammed*
The Senate's crypto framework bill is unlikely to pass before the August recess. Democrats don't approve the ethics part of the GOP
→ Clear provisions for $BTC $ETH delay. The market hates uncertainty
*(6) Poolin bankrupt*
Each top mining pool, freezing withdrawals 2022 hours of sale of Texas mines to repay debts 11,700 users
Reminder: mining also carries counterparty risks, not just $BTC
*In Summary:*
AI is squeezed, RWA is up, stablecoins are on the phone, crypto regulation is delayed, mining is poured in.
This week macro + infra wins over narrative coins
Which news do you see most $BTC $ETH impacting of these 6?
$BTC $ETH Big Tech earnings just delivered a reality check for the AI trade.
Alphabet and Tesla both reported results, yet their stocks sold off—not because the numbers were weak, but because AI spending is getting harder for investors to ignore. Google Cloud grew 82%, but rising AI capex guidance still raised concerns.
The market is shifting. Massive AI spending was once viewed as a sign of bold vision. Now, investors are asking the tougher question: Where’s the ROI?
That’s the same pressure hitting semiconductors from the demand side. No one is questioning whether AI is real. The debate is about whether hundreds of billions in capex can generate enough revenue before expectations catch up.
For crypto, the lesson is similar: narratives can reprice quickly when the market moves from “show me the vision” to “show me the results.”
With $BTC around $64K, today’s risk-off mood feels like the same “prove it” mentality spreading across tech.
Just my read, not financial advice.
#CXMTMemoryIPO #FOMCRateWatch $SNDK Don't get excited at the open, it hasn't fallen all the way in yet. Friday's closing price was 1436. Intraday low was 1411. It dropped 260 points over two days. There was no news to save it over the weekend. At Monday's open, it is highly likely to continue declining. Someone asked me, after dropping 260 points, is it still not possible to bottom-fish? I said, why are you in such a hurry? Last week's $SNDK decline was driven by volume; a drop on high volume shows that funds are truly flowing, not a shakeout. The storage sector was completely wiped out, with SK Hynix down 8%, Micron down 7%, and Western Digital down nearly 7%. Even the big players are falling—can SanDisk stay unscathed? Morgan Stanley is also pouring cold water, saying storage contract prices are about to peak, and the momentum of earnings increases is slowing. Bottom-fishing at this position is no different from catching a flying knife. There is another signal worth watching: last Friday, SanDisk showed no rebound at all, plunging all the way to the close. What does this indicate? This shows that the funds buying the bottom are not in a hurry and are willing to wait for a lower price. No one false-started, so there was still a low point. The bearish sentiment hasn't fully vented yet, and Monday morning trading is likely to continue to see a momentum of a sell-off. Once it has dropped completely, stopped falling, and trading volume has shrunk, that's the time to enter. I'm currently empty. No rush to buy the dip. Waiting to watch the show. Wait until it drops below 1400 before doing anything. What's the rush? Money in hand. Be patient.Meme season is back first 🔥
Everyone thought the big caps would kick things off after the long bear. Nope. The OG meme crews decided to run it instead.
24h leaders:
$SHIB up 36 percent
$PEOPLE up 19 percent
$ORDI up 13 percent
$FLOKI up 10 percent, $WIF up 9 percent, $PE up 8 percent
$PENGU up 7 percent, $BONK up 7 percent, $DOGE up 5 percent, $GIGGLE up 4 percent
Three things I’m seeing:
First, no new coins. It’s $SHIB, $DOGE, $PEPE and the names from last cycle. When risk appetite comes back, money flows straight into tokens with real communities and real liquidity.
Second, $SHIB is doing $SHIB things. 36 percent in a day after weeks of sideways. That explosive pop is exactly why people still watch it.
Third, $ORDI is moving too. As the Bitcoin inscriptions play, it’s running right alongside the memes. That tells me capital is rotating into high beta, beaten down assets that can move fast.
History is clear on this. Memes get hit the hardest in bear markets, and they also bounce the fastest when sentiment flips.
Now the question: does this spread across the whole market, or is it just a short rotation? That depends on whether liquidity stays in memes or starts rotating out to other sectors.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
$SHIB $DOGE $PEPEChangxin's performance today might not be very friendly to Mu. Most of Mu's revenue comes from DRAM, but recently Mu has shifted most of its capacity towards HBM. Since Micron has a stronger advantage in HBM technology, it seems Mu won't be heavily suppressed. However, holders of MU should still be cautious. At this stage, the divergence pressure on Mu won't be small. For Google, hold tight and don't move, maintaining the target unchanged. The market currently expects a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, but I believe there won't be one! The most likely scenario, in my opinion, is no rate hike, but Powell will come out to talk hawkishly and scare the world, maintaining this stance until the end of the year. Theoretically, this is the script.
I still believe the Fed won't raise rates this year because they are already shrinking the balance sheet. Combining that with a rate hike would really cause short-term assets to explode! Trump + Bassett + Powell, these three have been making various statements and behind-the-scenes moves recently, and I believe they are working together!! $mu$goog)Micron ($MU) surged to $950 before retreating to the middle Bollinger band, with the 1-hour MA5 and MA10 turning downward. The market is shifting from broad-sector rally expectations to individual competition and differentiation, with funds repricing the direction of industry expansion.
Technically, selling pressure near $950 has weakened short-term momentum, and the candlestick is retesting the middle Bollinger Band support. If the key support at $930 is breached, it means short-term long positions will face stop-loss pressure, and traders need to guard against amplified volatility caused by emotional release.
The driving logic, ranked by importance, is: expectations for medium- and long-term prices passed down by China's DRAM expansion, actual realization of HBM and high-end data center businesses, and the tightening of overall market risk appetite. The expansion news has reduced capital risk appetite for the tight supply and demand of general storage, driving capital to reposition positions.
The upside scenario must meet the need for HBM and data center business data to continue exceeding expectations. If fundamentals are strong and the $930 support is effective, funds will re-buy high-barrier stocks. The key variables to watch are high-end DRAM order deliveries and profitability indicators. The script fails signal: lack of follow-up volume after breaking $950.
The downside scenario is based on industry competition and the assumption of capacity release exceeding expectations. If the $930 support is broken, the valuation center may face downward correction pressure. The variables to watch are the speed of industry expansion and price declines, with the script failing signal: a rebound rebounding and stabilizing above the upper Bollinger band.
When the market resumes overall buying sentiment for the storage sector rather than focusing on structural differentiation, the above competitive pricing logic will fail.
In the next 7 days, key attention should be paid to changes in holdings at the $930 support level and subsequent disclosures of high-end DRAM and HBM business data.
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply #新手必看: here is everything you need #AFX跨链桥被盗2415万USDC