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2014 年：Mt. Gox 倒闭，BTC $200，3 周后见底。
2018 年：BitGrail 倒闭，BTC $3,200，2 周后见底。
2022 年：FTX 倒闭，BTC $16,000，2 周后见底。
2026 年：BitMEX 倒闭，BTC $63,000，2-3 周后见底？
每一次，市场都说“这次不一样”。
每一次，市场都是错的。
区别在于：前三次 BTC 的市值分别是 $2B、$20B、$300B。现在是 $1.3T。
同样的规律，更大的规模。$BTC $ETH $SOL#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This week is definitely the "super eye of the storm" on the macro front!
My judgment: The Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting early Thursday morning will directly determine whether the market's main theme for the next month is "inflation trading" or "recession panic."
Reason one: The dual game of geopolitics and employment is reshaping expectations. The ceasefire expectation between the US and Iran has caused oil prices $CL to drop sharply, directly easing inflation concerns caused by rising energy prices; but initial jobless claims last week were only 187,000, below expectations, indicating the labor market remains very resilient, so the Fed dares not ease easily.
Verifiable data: The crypto fear and greed index has risen back to 30, a relatively high level within the month; meanwhile, BTC has reclaimed the $65,000 mark, which is a direct vote of market confidence in a "soft landing."
My trading approach: Before 2 a.m. Thursday, I will reduce contract positions, only keeping a base position to observe. If Powell's speech leans hawkish, there will likely be a spike, which is a good opportunity to buy back chips rather than chase the rally.
Reason two: The capital expenditures of tech giants are another hidden bomb. Earnings reports from XMSFT, Meta, and XAMZN are concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday; where they spend their money (AI infrastructure or buybacks) directly affects the Nasdaq and crypto market sentiment linkage.
Verifiable data: The fifth round of about $900 million creditor compensation from FTX will start on July 31. Although the market has digested part of this potential selling pressure, it remains a Damocles sword hanging overhead.
My trading approach: Focus on the market reaction after earnings releases. If tech stocks plunge but BTC holds up, it indicates funds are seeking a safe haven, and I will try to go long on the "digital gold" attribute; otherwise, I will follow the US stock rhythm to short.
One last reminder: There are too many variables this week—oil prices, employment, earnings, and rate decisions overlapping—volatility will be very high. Don't bet on a one-sided move; good defense is the key to surviving until next week. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 The FOMC meeting is the core market event this week.
Oil prices have retreated, employment data remains strong, and earnings season is progressing simultaneously; these variables will be priced in this week. Oil prices have fallen from above $100 to around $90, easing inflation concerns, risk appetite is warming up, BTC has reclaimed $65,000, and ETH has simultaneously risen above $1,900.
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon earnings reports will be concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, with capital expenditure guidance as the market focus. If capital expenditures remain high, AI-related assets may receive support. The fifth round of FTX creditor compensation, about $900 million, will start on July 31, and the flow of these funds is also worth watching.
The Fed's rate decision itself is unlikely to bring surprises, but the key lies in the post-meeting statement's wording on inflation and employment. If the tone is hawkish, the market may reprice rate hike expectations; if dovish, risk appetite may further recover.
$BTC $ETH $CORE 项目方天天画大饼忽悠，现在绝口不提回购的4个真相:
一、当初的回购从头到尾只是拉新画饼，落地根基直接全部落空
去年年底官方大肆宣传2026年核心战略：SatPay、LST质押手续费全部拿来二级市场回购CORE，打造价值飞轮。
但现在现状完全兑现不了承诺：
1. 核心现金流产品SatPay持续跳票
原定上半年全球商用、发行实体借记卡，时至今日只有预约内测，没有大规模商户、线下支付场景，一分钱稳定币手续费营收都没有，没有利润拿什么回购？
所谓Bitcoin Power Grid只是自家生态包装名词，不是外部合作，没有新增付费用户，整个生态零持续性现金流 。
2. 链上找不到任何定期大额回购记录
正规BTCFi项目回购会公示钱包地址、每月回购金额，Core从来不敢公开回购账户；盘面只有零星小额做市挂单，不是承诺的营收回购。就算少量买回的币也不会销毁，最后回流基金会池，后续照样能抛售，根本做不到通缩托价。#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
No one expected that the true new stock king of the A-share market would be born today!
Changxin Technology's IPO completely blew up the scene, with a market value reaching 3 trillion.
It decisively crushed ICBC, thoroughly rewriting the landscape of domestic storage!
I also tried to participate in the new stock lottery, but was reminded that my balance was insufficient.
With Changxin successfully landing on the STAR Market, the global DRAM market officially enters an era of competition among China, the US, and South Korea. The long-standing monopoly of SanDisk $SNDK, Hynix $SKHYNIX, and Micron $MU has been completely broken. Changxin holds a steady 8% market share, ranking fourth globally, and its share continues to rise.
Looking purely at fundamentals and valuation, Changxin is really attractive. Its performance will explode in the first half of 2026, with revenue and net profit growth all increasing by multiple times. A 25x PE ratio is basically a bargain in today's tech stocks and is seriously undervalued compared to overseas storage giants.
However! The more the public is celebrating, the more I want to pour cold water. A good company does not mean you can blindly buy it now.
Personally, I think there are two points to pay attention to:
First, the chip structure is extremely poor. Nearly ten million people participated in the new stock lottery, with over seven million retail investors winning shares, resulting in extremely dispersed chips. It's all retail investors holding together, with no major holders locking in shares. After the price surges, they will only sell off against each other, unable to withstand disagreements.
Second, the circulating shares and unlocking risks are huge. On the first day, only 6.73% of shares are circulating, and there are no price limits for the first five days. Small caps are easily driven crazy by sentiment, but the subsequent unlocking pressure is enormous. Referencing SMIC's trend, after the IPO surge, there is a long-term downward drift caused by dispersed chips and unlocking sell-offs.
In summary:
Changxin is definitely a top-tier asset, supported by domestic storage substitution and a super cycle, with a definite long-term market.
But in the short term, sentiment has already exhausted all the positives. This is a sentiment peak, not a value peak. The IPO will inevitably see intense turnover. Ordinary investors must not buy at the high point. Patience to wait for a pullback to digest chips is the safest approach.
Looking at today's market, $BTC and $ETH are slowly climbing, the green margin has already been liquidated. It is recommended not to short and not to fight against the main trend!$SHIB This wave is like a whale selling—no one pays attention or plays. With 20 million yuan in in, the market is boosted. Once retail investors enter and take over, they keep selling, with a total of about 100 million yuan sold and exited. Now that the hype is high and there are too many long orders, if he wants to push the market up again, it's not about 20 million; he should have left. The current hourly trading volume is only a little over 200,000, so there's no reason to push it too riskily or the front end is too heavy. It's not easy to take off
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
$BTC $ETH $BTC 没有跟着 BitMart 停运消息下跌，广场热门帖却已经把这件事写成“交易所连环倒闭”。官方公告确认的是分阶段退出，提现目前仍开放。
时间表也很清楚：7 月 26 日停止新注册、充值和新订单，8 月 26 日停止交易，2027 年 1 月 31 日正式停运。
平台自身的风险确实被快速定价，BitMart 页面显示 BMX 约跌 55%。但过去 24 小时 BTC 仍涨 1.25%，合约持仓量下降约 2.8%。这更像单个平台有序退出叠加去杠杆，暂时还没有形成全市场挤兑。
接下来留意 BitMart 提现是否持续顺畅，以及 BTC 在持仓下降时能否继续稳住。前者若出现异常、后者若同步转弱，才说明风险开始向市场外溢。
#BTC #BitMart#FOMCRateWatch FOMC decision drops Thursday 2am Beijing time, and the macro setup heading in couldn't be more mixed 🎯
Oil sharply lower on US-Iran ceasefire hopes — takes the energy inflation pressure off. Jobless claims 187K, below expectations — labor market still holding up. One dove, one hawk, both landing this week 🤔
Same week: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings Wednesday and Thursday with capex guidance as the main event. And FTX's fifth round of $900M creditor repayments kicks off July 31 — $900M hitting the market while everything else is in motion 👀
BTC back above $65K to open the week. Fear & Greed recovered to 30 — highest this month. Sentiment shifted fast 📈
FOMC + three mega-cap earnings + FTX repayments all in the same window. This is the kind of week where you either ride the wave or get caught on the wrong side of it 🫠
Oil down, jobs resilient, BTC warming up — do you think Warsh leans dovish or hawkish Thursday? And are you reducing risk into this stacked week or staying in? 👇Recently, the popularity of RWA tokenization for real-world assets has been spreading, but funds are no longer just focused on familiar targets; instead, they are beginning to explore underlying public blockchains aimed at traditional finance and real enterprises. After a long period of silence, $HBAR has made a significant rebound. Unlike public chains that focus on retail investor ecosystems, HBAR's core audience is institutions, and its track logic is unique. Let's break it down today. Let's start with the underlying background: Many public chains prioritize retail trading, DeFi, and meme strategies, but Hedera (HBAR) takes a completely different approach, positioning itself as a commercial public chain for traditional large enterprises and financial institutions. Online transfers are fast and fees extremely low, and the governance requires the joint participation of multiple multinational corporate alliances, with a more comprehensive compliance framework compared to most public blockchains. The project has long been deeply rooted in the institutional market, focusing on on-chain demand for real assets such as bonds, real estate, and supply chain finance, making it one of the key infrastructure in the RWA sector. For a long time, the market's focus was on AI and MEME hotspots, while HbarAR, which leans toward B2B, lacked short-term speculative topics and was overlooked by investors in the long run. Current market situation: As the RWA narrative continues to heat up, the sector's profit-making effect is spreading. Funds began to fluctuate between high and low, searching for second-tier public chains that have been trading sideways for a long time and whose valuations have not yet fully recovered. HBAR ended its prolonged range of fluctuations and saw a surge in volume. The market is beginning to pay attention to a key logic: traditional finance companies wanting to enter on-chain assets will most likely prioritize the underlying network with stronger compliance attributes and corporate alliance endorsement. Core logic breakdown of this round of gains: Yue LaiDon't just focus on AI in the US stock market tonight.
What could truly change the strength of sectors is the gap in crude oil.
WTI crude oil has quickly fallen from around $90 to $84.8, as the market is giving back the risk premium caused by geopolitical conflicts.
This has three layers of impact on the US stock market tonight.
1. The energy sector faces profit-taking pressure
Short-term resistance for crude oil is between $85.5 and $86.
As long as the price does not close back above $86, the bullish logic for energy stocks will weaken, and $XOM and $CVX are likely to see profit-taking at high levels.
If crude oil falls below $84, the next support is around $83.
2. The airline and transportation sectors see cost relief
The most direct beneficiaries of falling oil prices are airlines.
But even if $UAL strengthens in pre-market, I wouldn’t chase it right at the open. The key is to observe whether it can stay stronger than the broader market in the first 30 minutes after the open, while oil prices remain below $85.5.
Only if oil prices fail to rebound above $86 will the relative advantage of the airline sector be easier to sustain.
3. Tech stocks still depend on three events this week
This week includes the Federal Reserve meeting, inflation data, and major tech company earnings.
The drop in oil prices helps ease inflation pressure but does not directly translate to a broad tech stock rally. The real drivers remain interest rate expectations and earnings guidance.
Key observations for tonight:
Crude oil resistance: $85.5–$86
First support: $84
Second support: $83
Logic invalidation: regaining and holding above $86
If crude oil stays below $85.5, energy is weak, while airlines and consumer sectors relatively benefit.
If crude oil regains and holds above $86, the sector rotation logic for tonight needs to be reassessed. #CXMTMemoryIPO CXMT (ChangXin Memory) just debuted on China's STAR Market at a 3.31 trillion yuan valuation — now the largest stock on China's A-shares 🔥
The global memory story just got a third player. A week ago: Anthropic signed chip supply deals with Samsung and SK Hynix, Nvidia invested in Korea's Naver. AI orders were concentrating around the Korean duo. Now CXMT's listing brings Chinese capacity officially into the pricing system 👀
The timing is deliberate. KOSPI even rose 1.7%+ early morning then reversed — the market felt the new competition entering the room 📉
DRAM contract prices and expansion pace are now the two numbers to watch. More supply sources = potential pricing pressure on Samsung and SK Hynix's premium 🤔
Anthropic's orders went to Korea. A-share capital went to CXMT. Is there enough AI memory demand for three players to win — or does one get squeezed out as the market matures? 🫠
Does CXMT's entry actually reshape global DRAM pricing, or is this another domestic champion story that stays contained within China's market? And are you positioned in this trade anywhere — Korean ADRs, tokenized US chips, or A-shares? 👇Today, the entire tech circle and capital market focus is on Changxin Storage, which just debuted on the STAR Market.
The opening was explosive, soaring 471.59% compared to the 8.66 yuan issue price, with an opening price fixed at 49.5 yuan. The intraday highest increase once exceeded 530%, with extremely fierce battles between bulls and bears, a price difference of over 17 yuan, and a trillion-yuan market cap instantly formed. Single winning users earned over twenty thousand yuan per share.
This extreme profit effect has fully ignited the entire storage sector's heat.
But I noticed a very common misunderstanding.
The vast majority of retail investors only focus on the soaring market sentiment,
follow the hype shouting bull market and tenfold gains, but they can't distinguish the underlying logic of the storage track at all.
The companies casually mentioned daily like Changxin, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk
seem to all be storage companies, but in fact, their tracks are completely separate, their profit logics vastly different, and the benefiting market trends totally distinct.
Mindlessly mixing them together to follow speculation will most likely result in buying at the top.
Setting aside market heat, let's talk about the core industry fundamentals.
The storage industry has never been a single category; it is fundamentally divided into two major parts:
DRAM operating memory, which clears data when powered off, supporting phones, computers, and AI servers;
NAND flash storage, which retains data long-term, suitable for hard drives, USB drives, and memory cards.
The gap among all storage companies starts from these two categories, which is also the root cause of their different stock price trends and market logics.
Let's first talk about the market-exploding protagonist, Changxin Storage.
Many are misled by the IPO surge, mistakenly thinking it covers all storage dividends.
In reality, its business is extremely focused, deeply cultivating the DRAM memory track, and completely avoiding NAND flash.
As the only domestic IDM leader that has independently developed and produced DRAM chips, its core value is not about following AI hype,
but a solid domestic substitution logic.
In recent years, overseas giants have continuously cut general DRAM production, crazily shifting capacity to high-profit AI high-end HBM memory.
A large gap has appeared in global general memory capacity.
Changxin just fills this gap, supplying DDR5 and LPDDR5X in batches, steadily securing stable orders from consumer electronics and basic servers.
Here, I must warn everyone about the biggest pitfall.
Changxin currently does not have mass production capability for HBM; related products are still in the R&D sample delivery stage.
It cannot yet benefit from the most profitable and core HBM dividends in this AI storage boom.
Its rise logic is domestic substitution growth plus industry cycle resonance,
distinct from overseas storage giants violently boosted by AI, representing two completely different valuation systems.
Next, let's look at the most familiar SK Hynix.
It is the absolute core beneficiary of this AI storage market and the true track leader.
Unlike Changxin's single focus, Hynix runs dual lines, covering both DRAM and NAND.
Its real trump card is the monopolistic HBM high-bandwidth memory capacity.
Most of the HBM used in Nvidia's high-end AI graphics cards and AI servers comes from Hynix.
The extremely high premium and supply-demand imbalance have supported its super market performance over the past two years.
For Hynix, ordinary memory and flash business are just the basics.
The real driver of stock price and profit ceiling has always been HBM capacity and pricing.
This is the fundamental difference between it and Changxin: one benefits from domestic substitution, the other from AI high-end computing power dividends.
Next is Micron Technology.
As the only US original storage manufacturer, it is the most versatile yet unstable player in the industry.
It also runs dual lines DRAM+NAND, covering general storage, HBM, automotive-grade, and industrial-grade flash.
Its product line covers all niche scenarios, with a much more balanced business layout than the other two.
But its biggest risk is not the industry cycle but geopolitical policies.
Import-export controls and supply chain restrictions can affect its shipments and performance anytime, causing extreme stock price volatility.
Its HBM progress is between Hynix and Changxin.
It lacks the Korean company's monopolistic capacity and the domestic company's policy protection.
Its trend follows the global storage cycle and international situation more, with maximum uncertainty.
Finally, the most confused SanDisk.
A serious reminder: SanDisk must never be compared to Changxin or Hynix.
This is the most common rookie mistake.
SanDisk never does DRAM memory business; it only does NAND flash.
Our daily-used USB drives, TF cards, and consumer SSDs are its core business.
It was acquired by Western Digital early on, later spun off independently, focusing deeply on the consumer storage track.
It is completely disconnected from AI memory, server DRAM, and HBM markets.
It does not benefit from AI dividends or domestic substitution dividends.
Its trend only follows the consumer flash supply-demand cycle.
Mixing it with the first three original storage manufacturers is a fundamental misunderstanding of the track.
After discussing the core differences of these four companies, let's look back at Changxin's explosive market performance today.
Objectively, a large part of today's surge is driven by speculative sentiment.
Extremely low float, scarce domestic DRAM leader status, and extreme bullish market sentiment
combined to create a market detached from the usual industry cycle.
Currently, the market shows very clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Retail investors are crazily chasing high, gambling on tenfold gains, while institutions remain rational and restrained on valuation.
High turnover at the top, subsequent volatility and differentiation are inevitable trends.
Don't blindly go all in on the storage track just because the sector is broadly rising and new stocks are surging.
Different tracks, logics, and dividends mean individual stock trends will continue to diverge.
Short-term speculative sentiment will eventually fade.
Those who can stand firm at high levels will always be those with pure logic, realized capacity, and real performance support.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Let me share the story behind the creation of this article:
The topic was actually quite accidental. That day, I saw the Korean KOSPI open high and then turn down, and I thought the reaction behind this was interesting—what were Korean institutions trading? After figuring it out, I realized this was a variable in the global storage landscape, so I wanted to write about it.
The hardest part of writing was "not turning it into a financial press release." How much it rose on the first day, market cap, and data are easy to pile up, but no one reads just data. I kept asking myself: What does this mean for Samsung and SK Hynix? What does it mean for Nvidia, the buyer of storage? Pulling out this logical chain made me feel the article was somewhat interesting.
What I most want to express is: these are actually signals of the global competitive landscape. Storage pricing power is shifting from a duopoly to a three-party game. This change won't happen in a single quarter, but the starting point is today.
After publishing, someone asked me, "So should I buy Samsung or short it now?" This question made me realize many people, after reading, are still looking for a simple trading instruction. I think this is exactly what I want to avoid. Analysis is not the answer; it helps you think through the problem clearly.
DYOR!This could be a pivotal week for $BTC . History suggests FOMC weeks often bring heightened volatility. Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable Bitcoin pullback, with an average decline of around 10% in the week that followed. Interestingly, before last month's meeting, BTC was trading near $66K—almost the same level we're seeing now. It later dropped nearly 12% to $58K, marking fresh cycle lows. The only exception came in May, when Bitcoin defied expecta📊Tonychoo | Crypto Institution Daily (2026.07.27)
📰 Today's highlights
1️⃣ ETF spot withdrawals diverge sharply from derivatives volume expansion:
On July 24 Eastern Time, BTC/ETH spot ETFs saw over $310 million in outflows in a single day, but the 24-hour trading volume of derivatives across the network surged to $107.753 billion (an increase of 57.84%), with liquidations surging by 164%. The market is entirely driven by futures leverage, and spot funds remain sluggish in buying positions.
2️⃣ East Coast and South Korea spot prices are relatively cold:
Coinbase's premium index was -0.09, and South Korea's premium dropped to -0.3, reflecting weak spot buying by institutions and retail investors in Europe and the US.
3️⃣ Key fixes for on-chain structures:
Small whales (100~1k BTC) have returned to unprofitable positions, MVRV is forming a golden cross pattern, but the Bull Score (30) remains at the boundary between bear and neutral markets.
4️⃣ MicroStrategy (Saylor) Reserves:
Holding 884,377 BTC, total value $54.36 billion, average cost $75,653 (current unrealized loss -14.84%). Saylor tweeted that "another color is needed," and the market speculates it may introduce new asset reserves.
5️⃣ Macro and Policy Correlations:
The US and Iran confirmed the continued communication of information;
Charles Schwab has recognized the Clarity Act as the industry's most critical catalyst.
📊 Institutional Funding's Moves (Data from Friday, July 24, Eastern Time)
BTC ETF
🔴 Net outflow for the day: -$240.1 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (IBIT): -$212.2 million
• Fidelity (FBTC): -$27.9 million
Historical Data:
The cumulative net inflow of BTC ETFs across the entire network was $51.439 billion (IBIT cumulative +60.394 billion / GBTC cumulative -27.416 billion yuan).
ETH ETF
🔴 Single-day net outflow: -$70.7 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (ETHA): -$52.8 million
• Fidelity (FETH): -$27.8 million
🟢 Major counter-trend inflows: • Grayscale (ETH): +$9.9 million
Historical data: Total net inflow of ETH ETFs across the network was $11.211 billion (ETHA cumulative +11.41 billion / ETHE cumulative -5.337 billion).
📈 Market sentiment and macro indicators
Coinbase Premium Index: -0.09 (US institutional spot selling pressure is high)
Korean kimchi premium: -0.3 (retail sentiment is lukewarm)
Panic and Greed Index: 29 (in the "Panic" range)
Counterfeit Season Index / Total Network RSI: Counterfeit Season Index 54 (Neutral) | Overall RSI Average 51.96 (Neutral)
The DXY US Dollar Index retreated to 101.32, while spot gold remained fluctuating near $4,099/oz
📉 Derivatives and long-short game data
Total transaction volume across the entire network in 24 hours: $107.753 billion (+57.84%)
Total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours: $218 million (+164.15%)
Total Open Interest (OI): $115.252 billion (+0.60%)
BTC
Price: approximately $65,380.2 (+1.41%)
Funding rate: 0.0070%
Total Open Interest (OI): $48.359 billion
24-hour liquidation: $37.7472 million
Distribution of long and short positions: 24-hour long-short ratio across the network 50.72% / 49.28%;
Binance's large account long-short ratio is 1.63.
Depth and order wall: Currently breaking through the previous sell order wall and consolidating at $65,280, accumulating a score of 73 (bullish), with core resistance above at the $66,000 sell order wall.
ETH
Price: approximately $1,957.47 (+4.13%)
Funding rate: 0.0074%
Open interest (OI) across the entire network: $28.022 billion
24-hour liquidation: $92.3682 million
Depth and suppression: Touching the native sell order wall, with three strong resistance levels distributed between $2,125 and above.
🔍 In-depth on-chain and technical observation
1️⃣ Severe Divergence Between Spot and Futures Demand:
BTC futures demand indicators have turned positive, but spot demand remains negative. Because spot selling exceeds futures buying, overall demand is in negative territory. This round of rally is essentially derivatives squeeze rather than genuine buying. In terms of liquidity, USDC maintained net inflows (US institutions are holding up defense), while USDT saw slight outflows (low non-US activity).
2️⃣ Cycle pattern and RSI recovery:
The 30MA and 90MA of the MVRV ratio are rapidly converging, and after the June death cross, a low-level golden cross is about to occur. The Bull Score Index rose to 30 (having escaped the extreme bear zone of 10); The LTH/STH SOPR ratio has broken through 1, and the relative profit ratio between long-term and short-term holders has returned to balance.
3️⃣ On-chain Tokens and Physical Activity:
"Little whales" holding 100~1,000 BTC have returned to unrealized profits, which historically has been one of the signals confirming a rebound.
4️⃣ ETH/BTC Structure Analysis:
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has converged to the end of a nearly 9-year cycle.
💬 In short
Derivatives leverage and on-chain technical indicators are recovering at low levels, but ETF outflows and negative spot demand have exposed the weakness of a lack of buying capital. Before the $66,000 resistance hit, blindly chase the rally is avoided.
💵 Understanding capital trends is more important 💵 than predicting prices
$BTC $ETH
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Changxin Technology's push for a STAR Market listing signifies that China's DRAM industry is moving toward a larger capital market. With its local supply chain, massive domestic demand, and pricing strategy, Changxin may indeed capture more of the mid- to low-end market, and may even force Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to readjust their pricing. However, low prices are only part of the competitive edge; the real battles in the memory industry also include manufacturing processes, yields, HBM technology, customer certifications, and equipment acquisition. Especially under the Trump administration's emphasis on "America First," semiconductor policy may still focus on protecting American manufacturing and supply chains. In the past, the U.S. has imposed a 50% Section 301 tariff on Chinese semiconductors, and has provided Micron with subsidies up to about $6.165 billion through the CHIPS Act, while imposing export controls to restrict the flow of advanced semiconductor equipment and HBM-related technologies to China. If Changxin rapidly expands its global market share in the future, the U.S. may still raise tariffs, expand the restricted list, or further tighten equipment and technology exports. My View: Therefore, I believe Changxin will be a major variable in the global storage market, but in the long run, Micron, $SAMSUNG, and $SKHYNIX still have advantages in technology, customers, and supply chains. If you are optimistic about AI driving memory demand but don't want to put all your eggs in one basket, you can consider $DRAM to diversify across multiple global memory companies and reduce policy and technical risks for a single company.
The above content reflects only personal views and market observations and does not constitute any investment advice. Investments should still be made based on your own risk tolerance, financial situation, and research decisions$SKHYNIX The Q2 earnings report will be released on July 29. The core contradiction lies in the battle between extremely high fundamental expectations and the pressure to sell positions with high leverage. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode.
Institutions forecast single-quarter operating profit of 64.1 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of nearly 600%, surpassing its total profits for the full year 2025 and establishing the explosive potential of the HBM structural cycle. An estimated operating margin of 75%-77% confirms the strong pricing power of high value-added products; however, the stock price has already drawn more than 30% from its peak, reflecting market concerns about the clearing of capital leverage.
The transmission path of event risk mainly focuses on rebalancing position structure and risk appetite. Retail investors' high-leverage funds enter concentriously before the earnings report milestone, amplifying short-term volatility and intensifying the short-term disconnect between price trends and fundamentals.
If the profit margin remains steadily above 75% after the earnings report and high leverage does not trigger a stampede, the stock price is likely to trigger a rebound scenario. This scenario requires observing the absorption of selling pressure on the day of the earnings report. If the volume volume breaks through the pullback trendline without liquidation stamping, the high valuation clearance phase will end.
If the earnings report is realized and triggers profit-taking exit and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, the stock price will trigger a second bottoming scenario. At this point, it is important to closely monitor the degree of stampede by high-leverage funds. If the pullback further expands and breaks below key support, the deleveraging process will be forced to prolong.
The signal of the upward scenario fails is that after the positive financial report materializes, turnover rates surge, but prices have not reached local highs, indicating that long funds are unable to absorb profit-taking. The downward scenario failed, with selling pressure being absorbed by strong buying immediately after the earnings report was released, with leverage ratios dropping rapidly and prices stabilizing after a stabilization.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the speed of leveraged capital deposition and turnover rate before and after the July 29 earnings release.
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Positive Moments or Shortcoming?一两个月前在时间线上问谷歌美光英特尔是不是已经买不到的那批人，现在没声音了。涨时看涨跌时看跌。应该怎么办？
赔率确实没有三个月前美伊冲突那次高，那时候我直说buy the dip。
现在是左侧，越接近估值下限越值得分批。估值和投资策略已在订阅分享
不加杠杆不all in也不all out。skin in the game。
去年四月 $GOOG 140， $INTC 20， $MU 70 的时候没人说得清这几家公司三年后靠什么赚钱。现在说得清了，估值倍数没变，反而不敢买了。
这就是认知差定义。同样的估值倍数，去年买的是不确定性。现在买的是已经被验证过的东西。分母的可见度完全不同，市场却要求同样甚至更高的折价。该压缩的风险溢价没有压缩。
那现在跌的是什么？是三月底到五月那波超额收益里的杠杆。拥挤交易出清、季度平衡、年中锁定浮盈。
这几件事和公司未来三年的现金流没有一点关系。现在投资Capex是基础建设，机场要先建，机票才能一张一张卖回来。我分享过 28年大概率现金流正。
但机构按季度考核不一样，必须在窗口里交出相对收益。散户不用参加这场游戏规则，时间是这是散户唯一的结构性优势，情绪最大短板，绝对多数人都不了解自己投资的公司，这是Burry说的有道理。
多看看我分享的article关于公司基本面分析，里面也有估值和买方记录。大部分人恰好在价格便宜下来的时候主动放弃了它。
好财报之后股价下跌，不等于基本面被证伪。强势股进入高波动盘整，也不等于长期趋势已经结束。
很多优秀公司的长期价值，恰恰是在下跌过程中不断提高的。
Skin in the game。真正的投资，不是回避一切波动，而是知道自己为什么值得承受这段波动。From a medium- to long-term geopolitical perspective, both the US and Iran have strong economic incentives to ease tensions. Coupled with the implementation of a ceasefire memorandum and ongoing multilateral mediation, a phased reconciliation is an inevitable trend, and the geopolitical premium on crude oil will continue to decline.
The core anchor for global asset pricing remains the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Considering the current sticky inflation, resilient non-farm payrolls, and the latest dot plot guidance, there are only two possible policy paths within the year: maintaining the current high interest rates or resuming rate hikes; there is absolutely no basis for rate cuts.
The new chairman, Waller, sent a clear hawkish signal in his debut. His monetarist philosophy and tough anti-inflation stance are consistent over the long term. Even if there is no rate hike in this round of meetings, the tone remains hawkish. Market expectations for easing should not be overly relied upon. This is my personal opinion for reference only. 海峡双航道、乌克兰贸然袭击伊朗资源船只，今天的信息密度还是可以的
这也与我上周的分析基本吻合，美伊局势发展至今，要么All in 打一个昏天暗地，俄乌与美伊战争混战，S3概率提升
要么偃旗息鼓，双方各退一步，回归技术性谈判，进入长期的外交斡旋阶段
只要不是疯子，都不会选择all in，特朗普虽然癫了点，但是也不是战争疯子，这是可以预见的！
能源价格快速回落是预料之中，不过细节处可以发现，国际原油与美油之间的价差在快速缩减
这意味着美国本身的能源价格压力实际上更大！#美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 With today's market situation, I finally feel like I'm catching my breath.
The US-Iran conflict has temporarily cooled down, oil prices have plunged sharply, Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000, and Ethereum has rebounded even more fiercely. To put it simply, the market hasn't suddenly strengthened, but rather that the war and inflation expectations that had been weighing on have temporarily eased a bit.
But right now, I really don't dare get too excited.
Because this week still includes the Fed meeting, US GDP and PCE data, plus tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon releasing earnings reports, any result that falls short of expectations could further dampen the sentiment that has just returned.
Moreover, although Bitcoin broke through $65,000, its trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that many people are still watching and have not truly started chasing aggressively.
So my current attitude is still the same as always:
The rebound is worth watching, but hold on for chasing highs.
Do you think you can hold onto 65,000 this time, or will it come back in a couple of days? $BTC #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌
Breaking news: oil prices dropped 6%, the market is rushing ahead, and a bit too hastily.
The 6% drop in oil prices is a rush, not a fair valuation. The US military's pause in airstrikes is a fact; Brent crude briefly fell below $90 intraday, but there's a huge difference between "pause" and "ceasefire." Iran's stance is "more skeptical than optimistic," and the White House has clearly stated that if negotiations don't progress, a full-scale war resumption will definitely be considered. More critically, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed; fewer than 10 bulk commodity ships pass daily over the weekend. The oil price plunge is more about emotional release and short covering; the geopolitical risk itself has not eased in any substantive way.
Prediction markets give a 75% probability, but I am much more pessimistic than that. Polymarket's 75% seriously overestimates the likelihood of an agreement by the end of August. The US-Iran conflict has lasted nearly five months, mutual trust is almost zero, and two weeks is not even enough time to get both sides to the negotiating table. Prediction markets tend to amplify short-term optimistic expectations during extreme sentiment, so their reference value is limited.
A 6% drop in oil prices will not change the wording of the FOMC decision on Thursday. The Federal Reserve meets July 28-29, with the probability of a rate hike once approaching 40%. A single-day oil price fluctuation will not make the Fed reverse its judgment within three days—they focus on trends, not noise. Maintaining rates unchanged remains the most likely outcome, but the statement wording will likely lean hawkish.
My position is waiting for the FOMC decision statement early Thursday morning. BTC has returned above 65,000, Nasdaq futures opened higher, and risk assets are rebounding, but this is a news-driven emotional recovery, not a trend reversal. What I am waiting for is the Fed's official characterization of inflation and geopolitical risks—if the wording is dovish, it means the oil price drop carries weight in their eyes and they can raise rates; if hawkish, it means they don't consider this fluctuation significant, and this rebound is a chance to escape.
Jumping in now is betting on a ceasefire agreement within two weeks—that's too big a gamble, I won't take it. Do you like to gamble? 2014 年：Mt. Gox 倒闭，BTC $200，3 周后见底。
2018 年：BitGrail 倒闭，BTC $3,200，2 周后见底。
2022 年：FTX 倒闭，BTC $16,000，2 周后见底。
2026 年：BitMEX 倒闭，BTC $63,000，2-3 周后见底？
每一次，市场都说“这次不一样”。
每一次，市场都是错的。
区别在于：前三次 BTC 的市值分别是 $2B、$20B、$300B。现在是 $1.3T。
同样的规律，更大的规模。$BTC $ETH $SOL🚨 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently stated that this round of Bitcoin adjustments may be nearing its end.
He believes the market has completed this important bottoming process, with BTC holding steady near $70,000 recently, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. For true long-term investors, short-term fluctuations are simply the market norm, not trend reversals.
Armstrong stated that institutional funds continue to flow into the digital asset market. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to attract stable funding, with many listed companies continuing to increase their holdings of BTC as reserve assets. Many countries around the world are accelerating the improvement of their crypto asset regulatory frameworks, bringing a clearer development environment to the industry.
Meanwhile, there are several other important recent positive developments worth noting:
📈 The U.S. market continues to focus on the Fed's future policy path, and the market generally expects the liquidity environment to further improve.
🏦 Several international financial institutions announced plans to expand their digital asset and stablecoin-related businesses, accelerating the construction of blockchain payment infrastructure.
⚡ Enterprise-level Bitcoin adoption continues to rise, with more institutions viewing BTC as an important component of long-term asset allocation.
🤖 New tracks such as AI, RWA (Real-World Asset Tokenization), and on-chain finance continue to attract capital attention, injecting new growth momentum into the entire crypto market.
Although short-term market volatility may still occur, Armstrong believes the fundamentals driving Bitcoin's rally remain solid. Each reasonable pullback feels more like gathering strength for the next rally, rather than a signal to panic about.
$BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #Crypto #FOMC #AI #RWA 美光 vs 鎧俠，存儲周期反轉了嗎
美光財報剛出，市場反應兩極
AI 算力鏈是 2024-2026 最大的 beta。
HBM 收入同比 +60%。AI 算力需求最直接的 beta。
美光 vs 鎧俠。兩家週期反轉，存儲板塊集體上漲。
HBM 單價。HBM3E 12-layer 比 DDR5 貴 5 倍。
這些數據不是孤立的，要看共振。
沒人知道底部，別着急。
📌 AI 需求要看收入之外的三件事
半導體公司的單季財報很重要，但不能只看營收增長。還要看 HBM 產能是否能交付、毛利率改善是否可持續，以及客戶資本支出會不會從訓練轉向推理。需求很強不代表所有供應商都能把需求變成自由現金流。
🧭 我會怎樣跟蹤
第一，看訂單能見度和產能利用率。第二，看產品價格、良率和資本開支的匹配程度。第三，把公司表現和同業、上游設備及下游雲服務商交叉驗證。如果只有股價上漲、基本面沒有跟上，我會把它當成交易而不是長期配置。
⚠️ 風險提醒
AI 敘事容易把遠期預期提前計入估值，供應增加或客戶延後支出都會造成劇烈波動。財報觀察不等於投資建議，仍要根據自己的期限和風險承受力決定。
🎯 最後的執行框架
先觀察業績是否連續兩季驗證，再用分批和限額控制波動；不因一個熱門標籤就忽略估值和退出條件。
我會把這個話題拆成三層來看。第一層是可以直接觀察的數據，先記錄數值、時間和方向，避免只截一張圖就下結論；第二層是市場如何反應，數據改善但價格不動，和數據轉弱而價格仍然上漲，含義完全不同；第三層才是自己的操作，先寫下最大可承受損失，再決定是否需要調整倉位。這個順序看起來慢，但能減少被單一標題帶著走。
對我來說，訂單能見度、產能利用率和估值要放在同一張表裡對照。每次更新只改變有新證據的部分，不能因為一個數字變化就把整個判斷翻轉。若三個觀察方向彼此矛盾，我會把結論降級為「等待確認」，而不是硬湊出一個看多或看空的故事。市場中最容易被忽略的成本，是過早確定之後不願意承認假設已經失效。
執行上我會先用觀察倉測試，等成交量、價格和基本面至少有兩項同向，再考慮增加曝險；若波動擴大或流動性變薄，則先縮小倉位。任何回測、歷史案例或 KOL 觀點都只能用來建立假設，不能代替當下的風險檢查。這篇內容是我的研究筆記，不是保證收益的買賣指令。
我會在下一次更新時重新檢查四件事：消息是不是仍然有效、價格反應有沒有確認、流動性是否足以執行，以及原本的風險假設有沒有被破壞。若只是社交媒體熱度上升，卻看不到成交量或資金的配合，我會把它當作待觀察訊號；若數據方向改變，也會同步修改原先的劇本，而不是為了維持面子繼續持有。
這種做法的好處是把「看法」和「行動」分開。看法可以保留多個可能性，行動則必須有清楚的觸發條件。對短線交易，我會設定時間上限；對中長線配置，我會檢查基本面和資金成本。無論最後結果如何，都把進場理由、退出理由和實際滑點記錄下來，下一次才有真正可以改進的復盤材料。
如果資料來源之間互相矛盾，我會先標記衝突，等原始公告或下一個時間點確認，不用社交媒體的情緒替代證據。這也意味著有些時候最好的操作是空倉等待，因為沒有交易本身也是對不確定性的管理。又一个交易所倒下，昨天BitMart 宣布关闭，过去 24 小时只有 58 个钱包能提现，总提现金额约 80.5 万美元，而过去 8 小时没有处理任何提现，
这几年市场里有太多合约大神稳定盈利一年翻几十倍的人设，他们包装自己的交易曲线，展示暴富截图，然后引导用户去一些流动性、风控能力都没有保障的小平台
牛市的时候，所有问题都会被上涨掩盖，但到了熊市，流动性退潮之后，真正的实力才会被验证，小所的问题不是一天爆发，而是在熊市时候问题慢慢积累，交易量下降、收入减少、资金链压力增加
所以很多时候，不要被所谓稳赚带你翻倍的故事吸引，那种人通常都会把你带到一个野鸡的小所，到时候你资金提现不了哭都来不及，$ETH
Still hesitating for Ethereum under 2000?
Time to get in the car!
Currently, the price of Ethereum is about 1950!
The first major event, and the most tangible signal: the number of people queuing for staking and exiting has been completely wiped out!
To give you an analogy, staking is like a fixed deposit—you have to deposit 32 ETH to participate, and you have to queue up to withdraw your money.
Last year, when the market was bad, a bunch of big players lined up to withdraw money, with long lines waiting dozens of days to withdraw. At that time, the big players were all fleeing, and the market definitely fell.
Now, on the other hand, no one is lining up to withdraw money; they can take it anytime they want, which shows that the big holders stockpiling ether have no intention of selling at all.
Not only did no one leave, but a pile of funds lined up to deposit it—over 2.4 million ETH waiting to be pledged, with the queue taking more than forty days to deposit.
To put it simply: smart people are quietly hoarding, and no one wants to sell or dump, making it hard for the market to drop sharply.
The second issue is that the U.S. regulatory bill has failed, and it won't be resolved before the August holidays.
Previously, many people hoped for this bill to be implemented, hoping that once official rules were established, big institutions would flood in and buy coins.
Now, with no short-term hope, many retail investors are anxious, afraid the market will continue to stall.
But just look at the big players' actions—if they were really afraid of trouble, they'd have lined up to withdraw money and run off, but instead, they locked up their holdings and didn't move.
Simply put, retail investors are startled by rumors, while truly wealthy investors only care about long-term value and remain unfazed.
Third, the conflict in the Middle East has eased a bit. Previously, people were afraid of wars and sold their coins to exchange for US dollars as a safe haven.
It's not as tight now, and the market is a bit looser, which has helped Ethereum hold up some of the bottom; otherwise, prices would have continued to decline today.
Now, let me share my honest opinion:
1. Don't expect big surges or drops in the short term; right now it's just a tempting fluctuation. The price below 1870 is hard support and will be hard to break below
2. No need to panic and sell losses every day; big players hold onto their funds. Opportunities to sell ETH are becoming scarce and scarce. A big drop is a chance to buy bargains—don't panic and sell your positions just because it drops.
3. Avoid those messy meme coins and meme tokens; all price movements rely on hype, resetting zero at will. The risk is too high, so focus on mainstream reliable Ethereum stocks.
4. If you can hold long-term, don't panic. Most of Ether is now locked and pledged, and fewer coins circulate in the market. If there's any positive news in the future, the price will be strong.
One last piece of advice: Don't follow news and trade frequently; if you keep struggling, you'll lose a lot on fees. Only by holding onto the bottom chip can you make money! BTC 主导率上升与 ETH/BTC 跌破 0.05 表明：市场表象是结构分化，真实定价正在为系统性下跌做铺垫。
市场是否正在从「选择性山寨反弹」进入「全线流动性枯竭」？
- 原文事实：BTC 主导率 56.8% 且上升；ETH/BTC 跌破 0.05；山寨币 20 日均线量能较均值低 18%。原文将市场分为四阶段：BTC/ETH/SOL 领涨；部分山寨（JELLYJELLY、OPG、SLX、LAB、BSB、ALLO、CHIP）跟涨；弱势币（BEAT、COAI、SPACE、VIRTUAL）仅微弱反弹；最后一阶段是领涨币种反转并引发抛售。目前第三阶段正在进行。
- 结构变化：山寨币量能萎缩 18% 且低于 20 日均线，说明买盘已衰竭，而非轮动。BTC 主导率上升意味着资金从山寨流向 BTC，但 ETH/BTC 跌破 0.05 这一机构级信号显示，BTC 本身的资金流入也并非来自新增买盘，而是存量避险。市场处于「卖出山寨、不买 ETH、持有 BTC 现金等价物」的防御性仓位调整。
- 定价影响：山寨币缺乏新增买单，反弹需依赖 BTC 持续上涨带动风险偏好。但 BTC 主导率上升本身压制山寨币估值，形成负反馈。若 BTC 无法突破当前高位，山寨币将直接承压；若 BTC 回调，山寨币跌幅大概率更大。ETH/BTC 跌破 0.05 意味着机构对 ETH 的配置意愿降低，进一步削弱市场整体流动性。
- 偏多路径：BTC 维持高位震荡并带动主导率回落，山寨币在成交量恢复 30% 以上且 ETH/BTC 重回 0.05 时，可能开启第四阶段之前的补涨。原文提到的 LAB、BSB、ALLO、CHIP 成交量增长 30% 是局部观察点。
- 偏空风险：BTC 主导率继续上升至 58% 附近，ETH/BTC 跌破 0.045，山寨币量能进一步萎缩至低于 20 日均线 25%。此时第四阶段（领涨币反转抛售）将触发，市场进入全线下跌。原文警告「只需一个坏消息就会抛售」是合理预期。
- 结论：当前市场并非轮动，而是流动性从山寨到 BTC 再到现金的单向收缩。持有现金是目前最有效的仓位。
风险：山寨币量能若持续低于 20 日均线 20% 以上，反弹结构将告失效。
$BTC $ETH $SOL #加密货币 #市场分析Bitcoin $BTC is very likely to follow a recurrent oscillation pattern similar to February to May. At this stage, there will not be unilateral sharp rises or falls, but rather repeated sideways movements. Altcoins may actually have opportunities for rotational momentum recently.
I think it's hard to call it a major bottom right now. The timing and magnitude of the adjustment haven't been in place yet, and with no expectations for rate cuts at the time, there's a lack of upward catalyst. Moreover, historically, during U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has mostly experienced varying degrees of correction, so the probability of a direct bottom here is very low.
History never fully repeats itself, but trends will always be highly similar. The real bottom often appears when the market is panicked and everyone is hesitant and doubtful.【图文观察｜油价传导】北京时间12:45，WTI 83.4750美元（-6.41%），Brent 87.5200美元（-6.06%），价差约4.05美元/桶。
观察视角：这里不单看油价涨跌，而看它对通胀预期、美元流动性和风险资产估值的传导。若油价上行但美元同步走强，加密资产反而可能承压。
金十背景：近期美元、原油、黄金为何出现“罕见齐涨”？ | 金十期货热图——打破传统逻辑！美元走强，黄金和原油应该承压下跌。但现实中，近期美元、原油、黄金为何出现“罕见齐涨”？一图了解。
验证点：WTI守住20日均线且价差稳定，偏区间整理；若价差扩大并跌回均线下方，需求压力会重新被定价。
风险提示：OPEC+口径、库存或地缘事件若超预期，上述传导观察需要重估。仅作市场观察，不构成投资建议。#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
Changxin Technology debuted on the STAR Market with a strong opening on its first day, reaching a market value of ¥3.31 trillion, instantly becoming the largest stock by market cap in the A-share market. This figure is not a bubble; it reflects the market pricing a fact: China's storage production capacity has officially entered the global competitive pricing system.
The timing is very precise and deliberate.
Just one week before the listing, Anthropic locked in Samsung and SK Hynix, NVIDIA invested in South Korea's Naver, and the narrative of AI orders concentrating on the Korean giants had just taken shape. Changxin's listing at this moment is not about riding the hype; it is signaling to the market that the storage war is not yet decided, and Chinese production capacity is the third variable.
The KOSPI index rose more than 1.7% in early trading today but then turned down, indicating the market is re-pricing the competitive landscape. Samsung and SK Hynix secured large orders from Anthropic and NVIDIA, but Changxin's entry is loosening their pricing power, giving buyers an additional bargaining chip.
I believe the real highlights are not the first-day gains but the two variables ahead.
First is the DRAM contract price.
After Changxin scales up mass production, the negotiation logic for contract prices will change. The Korean giants' current pricing advantage is based on relatively concentrated supply; with Chinese capacity entering, this foundation is loosening. It won't be a cliff drop, but the direction is clear.
Second is the pace of capacity expansion by each player.
Will Samsung and SK Hynix accelerate HBM capacity expansion to reinforce their high-end barriers because of Changxin's entry? If they choose to move upward and let Changxin occupy the mid-to-low end, the entire storage market will see clear stratification, and valuation logic will diverge accordingly.
XNVDA rose 0.35% today, Samsung fell 0.55%, and XSKHY dropped 0.79%; this divergence itself is the answer. NVIDIA is not afraid of intensified storage competition because computing power demand is expanding, and falling storage prices actually reduce its procurement costs. The pressure is on Korean storage manufacturers, especially the pricing space for mid-to-low-end DRAM.
Changxin's listing is a starting point, not an endpoint. The dual-giant structure is becoming a three-party one; this won't complete in a single quarter, but from today, the global storage pricing model needs to add a new variable.
DYOR Not investment advice 比特币目前卡在64,300美元附近窄幅震荡，方向感极度缺失。真正值得警惕的是资金面的暗流——过去两天比特币ETF净流出超过4.65亿美元，机构不是在抄底，而是在有序撤退。这根本不是蓄力上攻的信号，而是主力在借震荡悄悄派发筹码。📉
以太坊相对稳一些，靠着ETF资金流的持续支撑，周末回落后反弹至1,860美元附近，暂时守住了阵地。但宏观环境并不友好：原油价格持续走高，美国10年期国债收益率同步上行，双重压力推升避险情绪，理论上对风险资产是利空。另一边，CLARITY法案的监管推进与特朗普被曝出的加密货币利益问题，又让市场对政策解读变得异常谨慎，多空情绪被拉锯到极致。🔥
技术面上，当前关键支撑在64,253美元，阻力在64,409美元，区间极度狭窄，多空双方都没有发力迹象，典型的“等消息”型盘面。这个阶段的比特币不是要涨，而是在等——等下周货币政策会议的结果，等ETF资金真正转为净流入，等油价与地缘风险降温。在趋势确认之前，与其猜方向，不如盯着真金白银的流向。DYOR。🧠
#加密货币 #btc #ethHBULL 刚出现一个比价格下跌更值得警惕的变化：创建者直接持仓从约 6.20% 升到 8.70%，同时一个原本持有 2.50% 的锁仓地址退出前排。两边数量完全对得上，说明很可能有一笔锁仓筹码回到了创建者可支配钱包。
合约：7V6Sk63y8Rr1MvcN5mYNp61wgFhy4EeQg5gUASk9pump
项目来源筹码总量仍约 23.70%，但风险结构变了——以前其中 17.50% 分散在七个锁仓地址，现在只剩六个，创建者手里可直接控制的部分变成 8.70%。按当前价格名义价值约 12.2 万美元，甚至略高于主池约 11.7 万美元的总深度；真卖出来时冲击会远大于这个简单换算。
接下来只看三件事：项目方是否公开这笔 2.50% 的来源和用途；这批币是否重新进入不可随意提取的锁仓；创建者有没有把币转向交易池。若创建者开始卖出、继续接收锁仓，或多个项目钱包同步归集，我就放弃观察。
FAL 也有一好一坏：两小时内累计销毁从 2.515% 增到 2.808%，总供应确实继续减少；但价格跌约 24%，池深跌约 14%。新取得的持仓数据显示，剔除交易池托管合约后前十约占 22.86%，不算安全，也不算失控。产品机制在工作，不代表市场一定买账。
另有一个很早的网页游戏 GridClimb，已经有公开测试、日赛、冲刺、排行榜等页面，合约 DyFGNzidqg1CJtUNfXkLd9mQ5BsoxKUxiBHx54vDpump。但它只有 89 个持币地址、约 3200 美元曲线储备，没有独立玩家证据，只适合继续验证。高风险研究记录，不是买卖建议。手握修正案提交权限的一方松口，决定开放双方提案通道，加密清晰法案终于迎来表决机会。
法案大多不是被反对票否决，而是卡在没法进入表决流程直接搁置。民主党以两党合作作为前提，要求提交卢米斯的修正案，双方就此重回谈判桌，程序启动本身就是关键进展。
此前行业没有明确法条，证券、商品的界定全靠监管裁量和诉讼定夺，资本早就流向规则透明的国家。如今双方纷纷提出修正案，不是为了废掉法案，而是公开细化条款，把规则落到纸面，不再靠个人主观判定。
定规则需要推动表决落地，而无序状态放任不管就能持续，过去一直偏向自由裁量的格局，这次终于开始反转，法案推进的信号已经出现。#参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决：通过利好还是夭折？ This round of Hynix's sell-off, regardless of fundamentals, is a bloody "deleveraging"
Today's closing price was 176,500 KRW, down nearly 8% again. Including today, the drop in one month is 40%.
Someone asked: What's wrong with SK Hynix? Is HBM not selling anymore? Is AI not doing it anymore?
Stop talking nonsense. Nothing has changed, but what has changed is people's hearts and positions.
To put it bluntly, this round of declines is a bloody game of deleveraging.
First, the market has finally come to its senses—investing in AI also requires accountability
Have you read the earnings reports from Google and Microsoft? The numbers are beautiful, but the market is not buying them. Why? Because everyone suddenly realized that after investing so much, free cash flow actually tightened.
Previously, the market followed a foolish logic—whoever invested more in AI would buy it. Now I'm a bit more clear—if you invest 100 yuan, how much can you actually earn back? When will you earn it?
This "slightly clear-headed" approach is a fatal blow to shovel sellers like SK Hynix. It's not that shovels are hard to sell, but that mine owners are starting to weigh the money in their pockets.
Second, the price hike game is no longer playable
In the first half of the year, HBM, DDR5, and NAND rose—everything went up. The market has already priced in the price increase expectations for the next two years.
Then institutions like TrendForce started to stir things up—some NAND demands normalized. Normalization? In plain terms: it can't rise anymore.
The stock price already has a 100-point expectation for a price increase, but now reality may only be 85 points. Who will pay for that 15-point gap? Of course, these are retail investors chasing the highs and leveraged investors.
Third, this is the most crucial point—the leveraged funds in the Korean stock market are trampling each other
I don't need to elaborate on how fierce South Korean retail investors are. How many single-share leveraged ETFs and leveraged funds have been stacked? If it drops, it cuts; if it cuts, it keeps falling; if it drops, it cuts again.
This is not fundamental pricing; this is liquidity strangling.
Foreign capital and institutions sold 2.6 trillion won last week. Who answered? No one answered. Then you can only fall freely.
As for the story about Choi Tae-won divorcing and selling stocks—don't believe that ghost story. He doesn't directly hold shares in SK Hynix. This is purely a scapegoat the media picks during the decline, giving retail investors a target to criticize.
On the technical side, let me say something plain:
The 1.75 million position is the last dignity of the line. If you hold on, you can catch your breath. If you can't hold on, you'll see 1.68 million below.
Going up? Hold back to 1.9 million first, then talk to me about stopping the drop. Over 2 million? That's where bulls dream.
To be honest in the end.
I don't think it's cheap just because it's dropped 40%. The "buy more as prices fall" mindset in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is easily repeatedly harvested in the face of leveraged trading in Korean stocks.
But I also disagree with those who say "AI storage cycle is over." The supply-demand gap for HBM remains, NVIDIA's orders remain, and SK Hynix's technological advantage remains.
Nothing has changed, but what has changed is how much expectation has already been put into the price.
The current problem is: expectations have shifted from "extreme optimism" to "extreme pessimism," and this process is not yet complete.
The July 29 financial report is either a hemostatic injection or a second cut.
Personally, I lean toward the former—but that doesn't stop me from standing and watching for now, not reaching out.
Remember: the real bottom only appears after those who have leveraged and forced liquidations have cut their losses. Now, he still hadn't heard any sound.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced. This is the biggest macro event for the global risk markets this week, and the crypto market is very likely to experience a sharp wave of volatility.
Current market expectations are clearly divided. The baseline judgment of the vast majority of institutional economists is to maintain the current interest rate range unchanged, but CME interest rate futures have already priced in nearly a 30% chance of a rate hike. This level of uncertainty is very high compared to previous monetary policy cycles, indicating that both bulls and bears are cautious. On one hand, the June CPI data showed a significant decline and nonfarm payroll data weakened, providing reasons for the Fed to hold steady; on the other hand, the Middle East situation repeatedly disrupts oil prices, which could rebound at any time, posing a risk of inflation resurgence. Hawkish officials continue to keep the possibility of restarting rate hikes open. It is worth noting that this meeting will not update the dot plot, so the chairman's remarks at the post-meeting press conference will become the biggest trigger for the market, with every statement directly stirring the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
For the crypto market, the Fed's policy is always the underlying command baton that cannot be ignored. Interest-free risk assets like Bitcoin have valuations highly tied to the U.S. dollar liquidity environment. If this decision leans hawkish, signaling concerns about inflation and implying room for future rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, directly suppressing risk appetite for crypto assets and likely causing price pressure and pullbacks; conversely, if the speech signals dovishness, acknowledging economic weakness and completely dismissing the possibility of rate hikes, risk assets will see a short-term emotional recovery.
However, we cannot simply bet in black and white terms. The current situation is prone to "reversal upon landing": even if rates remain unchanged, a tough tone in the press conference will still be interpreted as hawkish; conversely, even if policy flexibility is retained but concerns about the economy are expressed, funds may interpret this as positive. Many traders have suffered losses by focusing only on the rate decision and ignoring the verbal signals afterward, ultimately being caught in the back-and-forth market swings.
At the same time, external variables cannot be ignored. The oil price fluctuations caused by the U.S.-Iran situation will indirectly constrain the Fed's actions. If oil prices surge again and inflationary pressure returns, even if the Fed holds steady this time, the probability of future rate hikes will increase, and this long-term shadow will hang over the market.
From a practical perspective, it is not suitable to take heavy one-sided positions before and after the decision. Instant spikes and sweeping orders back and forth are normal when the news breaks. Spot holders should focus on changes in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to judge whether the market is undergoing genuine recovery or just a short-term emotional pulse. Do not bet on a fixed outcome; prepare plans and have corresponding responses ready whether the tone is hawkish or dovish.
Macro factors will not directly determine price moves over a few days but will define the broader market environment for the coming period. The statement early Thursday will set the tone for global markets in the weeks ahead. We patiently await the signal to land.
$BTC $ETH Changxin goes public with a big listing! It will have a significant impact on US tech stocks. Changxin: Only makes DRAM memory chips (computers, servers, car system RAM), not NAND flash, USB drives, or solid-state drives; Micron: Across all tracks, DRAM as the main focus, also considering NAND, automotive-grade storage, and AI high-end HBM; SanDisk: Pure NAND flash memory track, mainly selling USB flash drives, mobile solid-state drives, and consumer-grade SSDs, with almost no DRAM production capacity; Tesla: Downstream storage automaker, purchasing Micron DRAM for autonomous driving and in-car computing power. Micron: Medium- to long-term negative factors, short-term sentiment under pressure (biggest impact) Direct impact logic: Changxin raised tens of billions to fully expand DRAM production and lay out automotive/server DDR5 and HBM high-end memory; Currently, 90% of the global DRAM market share is monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Changxin's 2028 global market share target is 17%, directly dividing Micron's global DRAM base. Domestic government, enterprises, and cloud providers (Alibaba, ByteDance, automakers) prioritize purchasing of domestic Changxin, Micron lost massive domestic server and consumer electronics DRAM orders, significantly weakening its pricing power. The three overseas giants can no longer jointly control production and drive up memory prices, the storage price hike cycle has peaked, suppressing Micron's gross margin. Short-term market reaction: On the day news of Changxin's listing was announced, the US storage sector plunged across the board, with Micron dropping nearly 7% in a single day, as funds priced in in the expectation of "domestic expansion squeezing overseas market share." Buffer and Hedging Point: Micron's strengths lie in high-end HBM and automotive-grade storage🧵 BTC long-bear extreme battle! ETFs have seen large outflows for two consecutive days, with the fear index hitting a low of 29. Are institutional players picking up chips or preparing to dump?
Market segment: BTC is currently quoted at $65,218, up 1.16% in 24H. Today, after hitting a low of $64,236, it rebounded strongly and reached a high of $65,461, with fluctuations exceeding $1,200. Currently, the price is repeatedly tuggling around $65,200, which serves as the support level of the daily Bollinger middle band, with a significant divergence between bulls and bears. On the hourly chart, after a short break from $65,100 to $65,460 in early Asian trading, there was a clear pullback, indicating considerable selling pressure above.
On-chain segment: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows over the past two consecutive trading days—$225M outflow on July 23, and another $240M outflow on July 24. This is not a good sign. But looking at July as a whole, net ETF inflows for the month still reached $970M+, indicating institutional bottom-ups. On the Solana side of smart money, CBBTC (Coinbase Wrapped BTC) led with a net inflow of $970,000. CBBTC is the core channel bridging BTC into the Solana ecosystem, indicating that on-chain funds are accumulating. JIMOTHY and CRCLX also saw net inflows exceeding $700,000, and sentiment on the Solana chain has clearly warmed up.
My judgment: The fear index of 29 is still hovering in the Fear range, so short-term ETF outflows are more like a temporary profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. Remain bullish until $64,200 is not broken, but $65,600 is a key resistance level this week; if it fails to break through, a pullback to $63,800 is highly likely. Medium- and long-term holders should actually be happy at this point—when others panic, their chips are cheaper. Short-term traders should pay attention to controlling leverage, as volatility is clearly amplifying.Ethereum Today's Analysis on Monday, July 27, 2026 — Continuing last week's momentum of "1,836 low → 1,900 dividing line breached→ weekend geological easing rebound," today's Asian session strongly broke through the 1,920–1,950 resistance zone, currently trading at about $1,948–1,954 (24h +3.7%~+4.3%), clearly outperforming BTC and belonging to a recovery phase of rising notes extending + capital rotating into ETH, but before FOMC (7/29-30), it still holds Treat it as a "rebound" rather than a "reversal."
1. Real-time Market Views (as of 12:30 PM)
Current price: ≈ $1,950, 24h +3.7%~+4.3%, intraday high between 1,954–1,967 and low 1,885–1,900
Structure: Rebounded from the 1,836 low, has firmly broken through the 1,920–1,950 resistance zone; The hourly MACD has seen a golden cross with increased volume on the zero axis, while the green bars below the daily MACD zero axis have sharply contracted, with fast and slow lines converging. In the medium term, bearish pressure has weakened but has not turned bullish.
Emotions: Panic and Greed 26–30 (on the edge of fear, not overheated); The ETH/BTC price rebounded to around 0.0298–0.0300, with clear signs of capital rotating from BTC to ETH.
Funds: On 7/24, ETH ETF had a single-day net outflow of 70.62 million (ending a five-day streak of in-entry), but still had a weekly net inflow of 103.9 million and a cumulative monthly inflow of 338 million. Spot ETF preference temporarily leans toward ETH; on-chain staking rate hit a new high of 33.6%, exit queue has dropped to zero, and selling pressure has been structurally compressed.
2. Today's Core Driver
Geopolitical cooling (direct catalyst): Trump pauses expanded strikes on Iran + progress in Hormuz negotiations→ Brent oil falls from 100+ back to 86–92→ inflation/rate hike narrative eases, 10-year US Treasury yield marginally retreated from a high of 4.66%, opportunity cost of non-yielding assets decreases, and ETH's high-β elasticity is released.
ETH independence positive: Staking locked up records (2.5 million ETH queued to enter) + Senate sprint expectations for the CLARITY/GENIUS bill, ETH supply side + regulator provide dual support, with greater flexibility than BTC.
BTC leads the trend but does not suppress: BTC reclaimed 65,200, ETH/BTC rebounded indicates not just following the rally, but with buying interest; However, institutions remain defensive before the FOMC, and the rebound is limited by the macro sword.
Technical overheating: 1-hour indicator weakening, 4-hour approach overbought, 1,950–1,967 is a recent previous high resistance zone, directly chasing long profit-loss ratio gaps.
3. Today's Key Price Levels (Moving Upward Following the Previous Few Days' Framework)
Resistance above: 1,960–1,967 (previous previous resistance zone) → 1,980–2,000 (round number level + long-short conversion band, only mid-term recovery above the level) → 2,030–2,050 (previous heavy trading zone)
Short-term support: 1,920–1,950 (just broken resistance turns into support; if the pullback holds, the structure remains healthy) → 1,900–1,915 (hourly moving average resonance + round number level) → 1,885–1,890 (last night's low / strong support)
Divide between bulls and bears: 1,920 hourly line close—hold firm and slightly upward with a move toward 1,960; if 1,900 is effectively broken, the rebound structure is damaged, see 1,885.
4. Today's (Daytime + Evening) Approach
Main tone: Don't chase long above 1,950; wait for a pullback to 1,920–1,940 for a stabilized low; 1960–1967 Infinite short void. Position ≤ 10% before FOMC, leverage halved.
Pullback 1,920–1,940 with reduced volume stabilization, 15-minute close shadow → light position test long position (≤8%), stop loss at 1,908, target 1,960/1,980.
Rebound 1,960–1,967 with reduced volume and long upper shadow→ short position (≤5%), stop loss at 1,978, target 1,940 / 1,920.
If volume increases in 1 hour, it will rise above 1,980→ on the right side, look for 2,000–2,030; if volume breaks above 1,900→ do not buy in the flying knife, wait for support at 1,885/1,850.
Tonight's focus: US stocks opening in the Nasdaq direction, whether Brent oil will push again to 90, and whether the 10-year US Treasury will fall back below 4.60—these three factors determine whether 1,920 is genuine support or a false breakout.
Compiled based on public market data and multi-source research reports, for reference only and not investment advice; ETH is more volatile than BTC, so strictly control stop-losses.
Tonight, ETH will focus on one line: can the 1,920-hour moving average hold? Combined with whether ETH/BTC can hold steady at 0.030 and the BTC 65,200 divide, we will judge the continuity of the upward trend. $ETH ETH's current bearish logic: after rebounding around 1966 over the weekend, bullish volume clearly weakens, making it hard to sustain the rise without volume; Combined with dense resistance above 1960-1970, short-term overbought means increase pressure to revert to the mean. On-chain data shows that if it falls below 1818, the liquidation strength of mainstream CEXs long positions will reach $720 million, potentially opening up the lower limits.
· Entry reference: Short on rallies around 1960-1970
· Stop-loss reference: above 1982-1988 (conservative above 1975)
· Take-profit reference: look at 1900, 1860-1850, break out at 1820-1800, aggressive move can reach 1650Changxin is aiming for a valuation of 3 trillion to 3.3 trillion yuan. I can only say: watching the show is fine, but be cautious about taking the baton.
Hynix's Q1 net profit is about 8 times that of Changxin, yet its market cap is less than double; Changxin's profit is roughly 13.6% of Hynix's, but its valuation has already exceeded a 30x PE. This is not just a bit expensive; it's a clear valuation inversion.
More importantly, the gap is not just in profits.
Changxin has crossed the mainstream DRAM mass production threshold, but its main products are still concentrated in DDR4, DDR5, and LPDDR; Hynix has already taken the lead in HBM3E and is pushing forward with HBM4 mass production and customer adoption. Technology, orders, certifications, packaging capabilities, and moat are not even in the same league.
So the question is straightforward:
Profit is 8 times different, technology is far behind, moat is much weaker, so why is the market cap less than double?
Of course, a small float, capital driving, and the Chinese characteristic valuation system could indeed continue to push it higher, even to more exaggerated levels.
But that looks more like a chip game, not profit realization.
If you buy in at 3 trillion, rising to 5 trillion is a story; falling back to 1 trillion means nearly a two-thirds drop.
For cyclical stocks, the biggest danger is not that they can't rise, but that one day the market suddenly stops telling stories and re-prices based on performance and cash flow.
Whether it can rise and whether it should be bought are two different things.
Focus on logic, not opinions.
Do you think Changxin is worth 3 trillion, or has it already overdrawn many years of future growth? #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 ❓ Why is it that the S&P has barely fallen, yet the tech stocks in your holdings may have dropped significantly? Because right now, the US stock market isn't a broad rally, but rather capital is reselecting investors within tech stocks. As of 12:27 Beijing time on July 27, 2026, US stocks were still closed for the weekend. The latest effective closing data was: Stock's daily closing price change: SPY $738.93 +0.10%, QQQ $684.23 -1.12%, DIA $518.76 +0.48%, AAPL333.02 USD +3.53%, NVDA206.84 USD -0.92%, MSFT381.70 USD +0.03% META595.19 USD -1.80%, TSLA313.03 USD -2.08% 🍎 Apple won, but the tech sector did not. Apple closed at $333.02, just about 0.59% away from the 52-week high of $334.99. But QQQ fell 1.12%, while Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla all weakened. This shows that funds are not withdrawing from US stocks, but are instead betting more heavily on a few strong companies. The index is still trading sideways, and individual stocks have already started to stratify: Apple represents strong capital grouping, Microsoft represents temporary sideways trading, Nvidia and Meta represent absorption at high levels, Tesla continues to release volatility risks 🔍. What to watch for next trading day? First, can Apple break through $335? If other tech stocks follow the rally after the breakout, it will be considered a sector recovery. Second, can QQQ reclaim $690? It won't hold backThis is going to be a very interesting week for $BTC.
Over the past 12 months, eight of the last nine FOMC meetings have been followed by a relatively large sell-off.
Across those eight flushes, $BTC declined roughly 10% on average over the following week.
During last month’s meeting, price was trading in almost exactly the same region as it is today.
$BTC traded around $66K, then dropped roughly 12% to $58K, setting new cycle lows.
The one exception was the previous meeting in May, when $BTC produced the opposite reaction and rallied roughly 5%.
So another bearish reaction is not necessarily guaranteed. We have already seen this pattern fail once during the current bear market.
But 8 out of 9 is still not a statistic I am interested in betting against.
If the same reaction plays out again, we’re likely to see a key test of the range lows.
I’m personally watching whether $61K can hold as support.
That level is the gatekeeper between another pullback inside the current range and a potential flush to new lows.
$BTC #DailyOrbit $ETH 's relative move today warrants a closer look. At roughly three times BTC's 24-hour gain, with the Iran strike pause pulling risk appetite back into markets, the outperformance looks positioning-driven rather than narrative-driven. Rotation into ETH ahead of broader alt momentum is a known pattern; whether this is that setup or just a one-session catch-up is still unclear.
The macro backdrop adds friction. Jobless claims dropping gives the Fed less reason to move quickly on cuts, keeping real rates elevated and limiting the liquidity tailwind crypto needs to sustain a rally. Google and Tesla earnings this week matter more than most traders expect; a growth miss there could reprice the whole risk-on move. I'd want more confirmation before treating this bounce as structural.
Just my read, not advice.
#DailyOrbit Forma Chain shuts down and reverts Ethereum $ETH—opportunities for these four types of track coins have arrived
Forma Chain, a modular application chain built on Celestia + Astrya, announced its shutdown. All core assets were migrated back to Ethereum. Core events will have layered impacts on the modular track, NFT track, and emerging application chain-related tokens. We categorize them by the strength of impact:
1. Direct pressure: Small and medium-sized modular DA layers & dependent application chain tokens
1. Celestia is a small and medium-sized dependent application chain token
Celestia once spawned a large number of L3 application chains built by following trends through its "modular data availability layer" narrative. The collapse of Forma will re-question the market: whether small application chains that simply ride on Celestia's architecture without a real ecosystem have long-term value.
Those niche L3 tokens developed solely on Celestia and focused solely on NFTs and art will face capital flight flights, and the market fears they will become the next projects to shut down and relocate.
2. Astria ecosystem native token
Forma is a representative implementation case of the Atria ecosystem. If the project directly terminates operations, it will weaken Astria's narrative in the app chain scaling track, suppress token speculation in the short term, and temporarily delay capital investment in new projects in the Astria ecosystem.
2. Indirect Weakness: Independent niche public chain coins focused on NFT narratives
Many niche sidechains and self-built L2 public chains originally had the core selling point of "lower NFT minting fees" to attract Ethereum art NFT users.
Now, Forma is moving the entire set of NFT assets back to Ethereum, leading users to consensus that niche chain NFTs could lose liquidity completely at any time if the public chain collapses.
Therefore, the following two types of coins will continue to be under pressure:
- Non-mainstream independent public chain tokens focused on NFT trading and digital collectibles
- Layer 2 network tokens focused on low-cost mint NFTs, but with sluggish daily activity and weak team cash flow
These coins will drain resources from NFT project teams, and new projects will no longer choose to issue collectibles on niche chains.
3. Positive news: Core tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem
Safe-haven capital clustering will tilt toward Ethereum's native assets:
1. Ethereum $ETH
For more small chain projects, the optimal solution when facing survival crises is to migrate back to Ethereum, continuously strengthening Ethereum's position as the asset's "final destination" and solidifying Ethereum's value foundation over the long term.
2. Ethereum NFT infrastructure tokens
OpenSea-related ecosystem tokens, Ethereum NFT confirmations, and royalty tool tokens will benefit. As more NFT collectibles migrate, demand for on-chain transactions and rights confirmations will increase.
3. Ethereum's official flagship L2 token
After users abandon the niche modular L3, scaling demand will concentrate on mature Ethereum Layer 2 networks, and leading L2 tokens will receive more ecosystem traffic.
4. Valuation cooling: Altcoins riding the modular concept with air coins
The previous bull market's batch of fake tokens, which only packaged concepts of "modularization, sharding, and application chains," without actual products or NFT/DeFi users, will face valuation bubbles bursting.
Investors will be more cautious about distinguishing between projects that truly build underlying modular infrastructure and those that simply shell and exploit hot topics by issuing coins to reap the rewards. These air coins will continue to be abandoned by the market.
Supplementary objective summary
This incident will not completely destroy the entire modular sector; it will only eliminate small and medium-sized application chains that lack cash flow and rely on narrative to survive. In the future, resources in the modular track will only concentrate on leading infrastructure like Celestia and the Ethereum ecosystem, making industry polarization increasingly apparent.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is for industry objective analysis only and does not constitute any buy or sell investment advice. Please do not participate in cryptocurrency related trading speculation.今日核心判断 今天是周一，美股将在今晚恢复交易。 SPCX没有新的现货收盘数据，最新价格仍是7月24日的115.07美元；真正新增的风险来自中东航运局势。 美国与伊朗已连续两天暂停相互攻击，为谈判留下空间，但霍尔木兹通行量仍处三周低位，红海替代出口线也遭到威胁。 这形成一个矛盾环境： 外交停火预期有利于风险资产反弹，但实际航运和能源供应尚未恢复，任何谈判破裂都可能令油价、科技股、SPCX与加密货币重新剧烈波动。 ⸻ 一、重点新闻 1. SPCX：市场进入财报与解禁前的等待阶段 已确认事实 $SPCX最近一个交易日收于 115.07美元，盘中区间为110.25—118.10美元。它仍较135美元发行价低约14.8%，较上市后高点回撤接近一半。 约9.115亿股将逐步获得交易资格，但获得出售资格不等于相关股东会立即全部减持。 SpaceX预计于 8月4日公布上市后的首次季度业绩；随后约9.115亿股可能获得交易资格。按近期价格计算，这批潜在解禁股份价值超过10007月24日，财政部和税务总局发了一份公告，编号2026年第21号，当天生效。中国人放在离岸信托里的财产，从此要交税了。 过去二十年，把资产装进开曼或BVI的家族信托，是中国富豪的标准动作：股权放进去，增值不用缴税，分红不用缴税，传给子女也不用缴税。 而中国的离岸信托个人所得税有关公告，把这个富豪圈的潜规则打破了。规则本身并不复杂，主要在三个时机征税： 设立：财产装进信托的那一刻，按当时的市价减去成本，缴百分之二十——这时候财产还没有卖，钱还没有到手，税先要交。 存续：此后信托每年赚到的钱，无论分不分给委托人，按年缴百分之二十，管理费和律师费不能扣，亏损不能抵。 终止:到信托终止、委托人变更国籍或者去世，再按当时的市值做一次总的清算。 单看税率，二十个点算温和的。美国的信托最高要交百分之三十七，日本对信托受益权征的税最高到百分之五十五。这份公告的分量不在税率，在两个地方： 一是收税的时点提前到了增值实现之前。 二是旧账要翻——2023年以后装入的补装入税，2025年以前信托赚到的钱打包补缴，限九十天，现在交不收滞纳金，过期另算。 现在网上流传了很多关于富豪交税的信息，我们就按照税务总局的Hehe 😁, thanks to the staff for their recognition—the topic direction was inspired by the staff's templates, and while farming data, I noticed something: the queue exit queue went from 2.67 million ETH backlog straight to zero. This twist was too extreme. At the time, I felt something was off, so I dug down. At the entry point, nearly 2.5 million coins were lined up. So many were coming in and out, which was very unusual.
While writing, I thought of making the technically technical thing of "validator queues" understandable to everyone. Finally, he used the comparison of "a network no one goes to vs. a threshold many people want to enter," translating the data into emotions. Vitalik's proposal and ETF inflows were added later, to make the logic more complete—no one exited, queued up to enter, institutions were buying, money was shrinking, and all directions pointed to the same conclusion.
What I most want to say is actually one thing: on-chain behavior reveals true expectations earlier than candlesticks. Exiting to zero doesn't mean no one wants to sell; it just means long-term funds feel it's not worth selling now. Many people's first reaction when seeing Ondo Chain is: Will there be an airdrop? Can ONDO be staking? Can ordinary users run nodes? However, as of July 2026, the Ondo Chain mainnet has not officially launched, and specific applications, parameters, and participation rules may still be adjusted. At this stage, what is more suitable for discussion is not specific operations, but what entry points it might provide in the future, and what risks each entry point carries. 1. What is Ondo Chain's positioning? Ondo Chain is a public PoS Layer 1 aimed at institutional-level RWA. It is not simply copying meme, NFT, and blockchain game ecosystems on ordinary public blockchains, but aims to provide a more dedicated environment for issuance, trading, collateralization, and settlement of tokenized stocks, US Treasuries, funds, and other real financial assets. It plans to adopt a "network open, validators permissioned" model. In principle, regular users and developers can use the web or deploy applications, but validators are expected to be mainly involved by organizations that meet requirements and are subject to ongoing supervision. This means that a more realistic entry point for ordinary users to participate is through the network and applications, rather than directly running validator nodes. The official plan also includes price data, proof of reserves, cross-chain communication, and compliance tools. Simply put, Ondo Chain aims to solve not just "issuing assets as tokens," but also whether the price is trustworthy, whether the asset is sufficient, whether the issuer can set holding and transfer qualifications at the contract layer, and more75% believe a ceasefire can be achieved before the end of the month; I bet they are completely wrong
Guys, when I woke up this morning, the whole market felt like a different world.
The US military bombed Iran for 13 consecutive nights, but suddenly stopped last Friday. Then Iran immediately made its statement: 'You stop, so shall we.' For two consecutive nights, no one fired.
And then?
Brent crude oil plunged sharply at the open, dropping more than 7% within minutes and briefly dropping below $90. It is now hovering around $91. WTI crude fell below $84.
Nasdaq futures opened 1.4% higher. Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000. Gold rose nearly 1%.
The market forecasted a figure: the probability that the US and Iran would reach a ceasefire agreement before August 31—75%.
75%。 Three-quarters of people believe this can happen.
I just want to ask: Did you forget that this script was just performed last month?
In June this year, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, the US and Iran just signed a memorandum of understanding containing 14 articles. And then? On July 8, Trump announced the end of the ceasefire and the resumption of bombing. 14 clauses, tear them apart at will.
Now, once again, there's a pause in bombing, and another 'leave room for diplomatic negotiations.' You believe it?
Iran itself has said—"We are skeptical of the US intentions." Even the people involved didn't believe it, and you bet 75% on the prediction market?
Let me tell you why this 75% is an illusion.
First, Trump's "pause" was never a "stop." The original words of the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Waltz, were to "pause military strikes." What does 'pause' mean? You can keep fighting whenever you want. Even the commander of U.S. Central Command himself admitted that the bombing operations "have reached the limit of effectiveness." Calling a timeout when you can't keep up is a completely different matter from wanting to ceasefire.
Second, traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz has not recovered at all. Data shows that fewer than 10 bulk commodity ships pass through the strait daily over the weekend. The shipowners dared not move. Oil prices have fallen, but has supply risk disappeared? No.
Third, the Houthi forces in Yemen are still fighting. Over the weekend, Saudi Aramco facilities in the Red Sea were struck. This conflict has long been no longer just a matter between the US and Iran; the entire Middle East has been drawn into it.
So my judgment is: the probability of a formal ceasefire agreement reached before the end of August is far below 75%.
Be optimistic, 30%. To be pessimistic, 10%.
The current market rebound is purely a recovery in sentiment, not a fundamental reversal. Oil prices fell for several days, inflation concerns temporarily eased, and risk assets caught their breath. However, U.S. Treasury yields remain at a high of 4.63%. The Federal Reserve is scheduled for a meeting on Thursday. The high interest rate environment hasn't changed at all.
Bitcoin has reached 65,000, so what next?
This position is a psychological checkpoint and a key technical battle zone. The bulls are holding their ground, the bears are waiting. If something else happens in the Middle East—Trump tweets again, and Iran makes another harsh statement—65,000 could become the ceiling at any time.
Guys, I've seen through this market.
Good news arrived, and it rose for a day. Bad news arrived, and the price fell for three days.
Oil prices fell, BTC rose. Oil prices rose, BTC fell.
You're always chasing, always taking over, always waiting for a breakthrough.
Don't be fooled by the 75% figure. Don't be fooled by the 65,000 rebound.
The only certainty in this market is that nothing is certain.
Hold your cash properly. Position control. Let the bullets fly a little longer.
Wait until the day of a true ceasefire—if it really does—before you can enter the arena.
$BTC $BZ $CL
#美军暂停对伊空袭, international oil prices opened sharply lower