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#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
At 2 AM Thursday, FOMC. The data before this meeting is already conflicting.
First, look at the CME FedWatch data: a 63.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July, and a 36.3% probability of a 25 basis point hike. Two weeks ago, this number was only about 10%. It's not the market guessing wildly; oil prices and employment data together have pushed the rate hike expectations back up.
On July 24, US initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, the lowest since 1969. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil briefly hit $100 per barrel intraday.
Waller has abolished forward guidance, and the market has lost the Fed's "signpost." Previously, the market could judge direction from statement wording; now it can only guess from data and officials' speeches.
The three key things to watch in this meeting are:
First, will there be a hike in July? A 36.3% probability means "hike" is no longer an option to ignore. Although the mainstream expectation is still to hold steady, this probability itself shows the market is repricing.
Second, what about September? If there is no hike in July but the statement is hawkish, the expectation of a September hike will further heat up. CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point hike in September has already exceeded 55%.
Third, Waller's wording. Will he remove "accommodative stance"? Will he mention inflation risks? Will he give any directional hints? Since taking office, he has refused to give clear guidance; whether he breaks the silence this time is the biggest variable.
The drop in oil prices has indeed eased inflation concerns in the short term, but the labor market remains strong. The good news is oil prices have fallen about 15% from their peak, giving the Fed some room to observe. The bad news is employment data is too strong, making it difficult for the Fed to send dovish signals when the labor market is this hot.
For the crypto market, the most critical thing is not "whether to hike," but "what signals are released."
No hike but hawkish → market prices in a September hike early → limited short-term rebound. Hike → directly tells the market inflation is tougher than expected → risk assets under pressure. No hike and dovish → short-term rebound, but Waller's style most likely won't do this.
Uncertainty itself is the biggest risk. A Fed that gives no signposts turns every rate decision into a guessing game. The answer will be revealed at 2 AM Thursday.
$BTC $ETH $QQQ 2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapsed, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapsed, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC $63,000, bottoming out in 2-3 weeks?
Every time, the market says, "This time is different."
Every time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: the market caps of BTC in the first three rounds were $2B, $20B, and $300B respectively. Now it's $1.3T.
Same rules, but on a larger scale. $BTC $ETH $SOL#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
This week is definitely the "super eye of the storm" on the macro front!
My judgment: The Federal Reserve's rate decision meeting early Thursday morning will directly determine whether the market's main theme for the next month is "inflation trading" or "recession panic."
Reason one: The dual game of geopolitics and employment is reshaping expectations. The ceasefire expectation between the US and Iran has caused oil prices $CL to drop sharply, directly easing inflation concerns caused by rising energy prices; but initial jobless claims last week were only 187,000, below expectations, indicating the labor market remains very resilient, so the Fed dares not ease easily.
Verifiable data: The crypto fear and greed index has risen back to 30, a relatively high level within the month; meanwhile, BTC has reclaimed the $65,000 mark, which is a direct vote of market confidence in a "soft landing."
My trading approach: Before 2 a.m. Thursday, I will reduce contract positions, only keeping a base position to observe. If Powell's speech leans hawkish, there will likely be a spike, which is a good opportunity to buy back chips rather than chase the rally.
Reason two: The capital expenditures of tech giants are another hidden bomb. Earnings reports from XMSFT, Meta, and XAMZN are concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday; where they spend their money (AI infrastructure or buybacks) directly affects the Nasdaq and crypto market sentiment linkage.
Verifiable data: The fifth round of about $900 million creditor compensation from FTX will start on July 31. Although the market has digested part of this potential selling pressure, it remains a Damocles sword hanging overhead.
My trading approach: Focus on the market reaction after earnings releases. If tech stocks plunge but BTC holds up, it indicates funds are seeking a safe haven, and I will try to go long on the "digital gold" attribute; otherwise, I will follow the US stock rhythm to short.
One last reminder: There are too many variables this week—oil prices, employment, earnings, and rate decisions overlapping—volatility will be very high. Don't bet on a one-sided move; good defense is the key to surviving until next week. The #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 FOMC meeting is the core event in the market this week.
Oil prices retreating, employment data remains strong, and earnings season is progressing in tandem—these variables will be concentrated in pricing this week. Oil prices have fallen from above $100 to around $90, inflation concerns have eased, risk appetite has improved, BTC has climbed back above $65,000, and ETH has risen above $1,900.
Earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon will be concentrated on Wednesday and Thursday, with capital expenditure guidance being the market's focus. If capital expenditure remains high, AI-related assets may find support. FTX's fifth round of creditors' compensation of about $900 million will begin on July 31, and the flow of this fund is also worth watching.
The Fed's rate decision itself is unlikely to be unexpected, but the key lies in the wording of the post-meeting statement regarding inflation and employment. If the stance is hawkish, the market may reprice rate hike expectations; If dovish, risk appetite may further recover.
$BTC $ETH $CORE The project side keeps making empty promises and bluffing every day, but now they never mention the four truths behind the buyback:
1. The original buyback was just empty promises of acquiring new customers from start to finish, completely failing to establish a solid foundation
At the end of last year, the official heavily promoted its 2026 core strategy: all SatPay and LST staking fees would be used to buy back CORE in the secondary market, creating a value flywheel.
But now, the current situation is completely unable to fulfill the promise:
1. Core cash flow product SatPay continues to be delayed
Originally planned for global commercial and physical debit cards in the first half of the year, only scheduled beta testing has been available today, with no large-scale merchant or offline payment scenarios, no stablecoin fee revenue, and no profit to buyback.
The so-called Bitcoin Power Grid is just a packaging term for its own ecosystem, not an external partnership, with no new paying users and zero continuous cash flow across the entire ecosystem.
2. No regular large-scale buyback records can be found on-chain
Formal BTCFi project buyback meetings publicly disclose wallet addresses and monthly buyback amounts, but Core never dares to publicly disclose buyback accounts; There are only a few small market-making orders on the board, not the promised revenue buybacks. Even if a small amount of coins are bought back, they won't be burned. In the end, they flow back into the foundation pool, and can still be sold off later, making it impossible to achieve price support through deflation.#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
No one expected that the true new stock king of the A-share market would be born today!
Changxin Technology's IPO completely blew up the scene, with a market value reaching 3 trillion.
It decisively crushed ICBC, thoroughly rewriting the landscape of domestic storage!
I also tried to participate in the new stock lottery, but was reminded that my balance was insufficient.
With Changxin successfully landing on the STAR Market, the global DRAM market officially enters an era of competition among China, the US, and South Korea. The long-standing monopoly of SanDisk $SNDK, Hynix $SKHYNIX, and Micron $MU has been completely broken. Changxin holds a steady 8% market share, ranking fourth globally, and its share continues to rise.
Looking purely at fundamentals and valuation, Changxin is really attractive. Its performance will explode in the first half of 2026, with revenue and net profit growth all increasing by multiple times. A 25x PE ratio is basically a bargain in today's tech stocks and is seriously undervalued compared to overseas storage giants.
However! The more the public is celebrating, the more I want to pour cold water. A good company does not mean you can blindly buy it now.
Personally, I think there are two points to pay attention to:
First, the chip structure is extremely poor. Nearly ten million people participated in the new stock lottery, with over seven million retail investors winning shares, resulting in extremely dispersed chips. It's all retail investors holding together, with no major holders locking in shares. After the price surges, they will only sell off against each other, unable to withstand disagreements.
Second, the circulating shares and unlocking risks are huge. On the first day, only 6.73% of shares are circulating, and there are no price limits for the first five days. Small caps are easily driven crazy by sentiment, but the subsequent unlocking pressure is enormous. Referencing SMIC's trend, after the IPO surge, there is a long-term downward drift caused by dispersed chips and unlocking sell-offs.
In summary:
Changxin is definitely a top-tier asset, supported by domestic storage substitution and a super cycle, with a definite long-term market.
But in the short term, sentiment has already exhausted all the positives. This is a sentiment peak, not a value peak. The IPO will inevitably see intense turnover. Ordinary investors must not buy at the high point. Patience to wait for a pullback to digest chips is the safest approach.
Looking at today's market, $BTC and $ETH are slowly climbing, the green margin has already been liquidated. It is recommended not to short and not to fight against the main trend!$SHIB This wave is like a whale selling—no one pays attention or plays. With 20 million yuan in in, the market is boosted. Once retail investors enter and take over, they keep selling, with a total of about 100 million yuan sold and exited. Now that the hype is high and there are too many long orders, if he wants to push the market up again, it's not about 20 million; he should have left. The current hourly trading volume is only a little over 200,000, so there's no reason to push it too riskily or the front end is too heavy. It's not easy to take off
#交易之声: Your experience deserves to be heard
$BTC $ETH $BTC did not fall following BitMart's shutdown news, but trending posts on the square have already labeled the event as a "chain of exchange closures." The official announcement confirmed a phased withdrawal, and withdrawals are still open.
The timeline is also clear: new registrations, deposits, and new orders will stop on July 26, trading will stop on August 26, and the official shutdown will begin on January 31, 2027.
The platform's own risks are indeed quickly priced in, with the BitMart page showing BMX prices falling by about 55%. However, BTC has still risen 1.25% in the past 24 hours, while contract open interest has dropped by about 2.8%. This is more like an orderly exit by a single platform combined with deleveraging, and there hasn't yet been a market-wide run.
Next, watch whether BitMart withdrawals remain smooth and whether BTC can remain stable as holdings decline. If the former shows abnormalities and the latter weakens simultaneously, it indicates that risks are beginning to spill over into the market.
#BTC #BitMart#FOMCRateWatch FOMC decision drops Thursday 2am Beijing time, and the macro setup heading in couldn't be more mixed 🎯
Oil sharply lower on US-Iran ceasefire hopes — takes the energy inflation pressure off. Jobless claims 187K, below expectations — labor market still holding up. One dove, one hawk, both landing this week 🤔
Same week: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings Wednesday and Thursday with capex guidance as the main event. And FTX's fifth round of $900M creditor repayments kicks off July 31 — $900M hitting the market while everything else is in motion 👀
BTC back above $65K to open the week. Fear & Greed recovered to 30 — highest this month. Sentiment shifted fast 📈
FOMC + three mega-cap earnings + FTX repayments all in the same window. This is the kind of week where you either ride the wave or get caught on the wrong side of it 🫠
Oil down, jobs resilient, BTC warming up — do you think Warsh leans dovish or hawkish Thursday? And are you reducing risk into this stacked week or staying in? 👇Recently, the popularity of RWA tokenization for real-world assets has been spreading, but funds are no longer just focused on familiar targets; instead, they are beginning to explore underlying public blockchains aimed at traditional finance and real enterprises. After a long period of silence, $HBAR has made a significant rebound. Unlike public chains that focus on retail investor ecosystems, HBAR's core audience is institutions, and its track logic is unique. Let's break it down today. Let's start with the underlying background: Many public chains prioritize retail trading, DeFi, and meme strategies, but Hedera (HBAR) takes a completely different approach, positioning itself as a commercial public chain for traditional large enterprises and financial institutions. Online transfers are fast and fees extremely low, and the governance requires the joint participation of multiple multinational corporate alliances, with a more comprehensive compliance framework compared to most public blockchains. The project has long been deeply rooted in the institutional market, focusing on on-chain demand for real assets such as bonds, real estate, and supply chain finance, making it one of the key infrastructure in the RWA sector. For a long time, the market's focus was on AI and MEME hotspots, while HbarAR, which leans toward B2B, lacked short-term speculative topics and was overlooked by investors in the long run. Current market situation: As the RWA narrative continues to heat up, the sector's profit-making effect is spreading. Funds began to fluctuate between high and low, searching for second-tier public chains that have been trading sideways for a long time and whose valuations have not yet fully recovered. HBAR ended its prolonged range of fluctuations and saw a surge in volume. The market is beginning to pay attention to a key logic: traditional finance companies wanting to enter on-chain assets will most likely prioritize the underlying network with stronger compliance attributes and corporate alliance endorsement. Core logic breakdown of this round of gains: Yue LaiDon't just focus on AI in the US stock market tonight.
What could truly change the strength of sectors is the gap in crude oil.
WTI crude oil has quickly fallen from around $90 to $84.8, as the market is giving back the risk premium caused by geopolitical conflicts.
This has three layers of impact on the US stock market tonight.
1. The energy sector faces profit-taking pressure
Short-term resistance for crude oil is between $85.5 and $86.
As long as the price does not close back above $86, the bullish logic for energy stocks will weaken, and $XOM and $CVX are likely to see profit-taking at high levels.
If crude oil falls below $84, the next support is around $83.
2. The airline and transportation sectors see cost relief
The most direct beneficiaries of falling oil prices are airlines.
But even if $UAL strengthens in pre-market, I wouldn’t chase it right at the open. The key is to observe whether it can stay stronger than the broader market in the first 30 minutes after the open, while oil prices remain below $85.5.
Only if oil prices fail to rebound above $86 will the relative advantage of the airline sector be easier to sustain.
3. Tech stocks still depend on three events this week
This week includes the Federal Reserve meeting, inflation data, and major tech company earnings.
The drop in oil prices helps ease inflation pressure but does not directly translate to a broad tech stock rally. The real drivers remain interest rate expectations and earnings guidance.
Key observations for tonight:
Crude oil resistance: $85.5–$86
First support: $84
Second support: $83
Logic invalidation: regaining and holding above $86
If crude oil stays below $85.5, energy is weak, while airlines and consumer sectors relatively benefit.
If crude oil regains and holds above $86, the sector rotation logic for tonight needs to be reassessed. #CXMTMemoryIPO CXMT (ChangXin Memory) just debuted on China's STAR Market at a 3.31 trillion yuan valuation — now the largest stock on China's A-shares 🔥
The global memory story just got a third player. A week ago: Anthropic signed chip supply deals with Samsung and SK Hynix, Nvidia invested in Korea's Naver. AI orders were concentrating around the Korean duo. Now CXMT's listing brings Chinese capacity officially into the pricing system 👀
The timing is deliberate. KOSPI even rose 1.7%+ early morning then reversed — the market felt the new competition entering the room 📉
DRAM contract prices and expansion pace are now the two numbers to watch. More supply sources = potential pricing pressure on Samsung and SK Hynix's premium 🤔
Anthropic's orders went to Korea. A-share capital went to CXMT. Is there enough AI memory demand for three players to win — or does one get squeezed out as the market matures? 🫠
Does CXMT's entry actually reshape global DRAM pricing, or is this another domestic champion story that stays contained within China's market? And are you positioned in this trade anywhere — Korean ADRs, tokenized US chips, or A-shares? 👇Today, the entire tech circle and capital market focus is on Changxin Storage, which just debuted on the STAR Market.
The opening was explosive, soaring 471.59% compared to the 8.66 yuan issue price, with an opening price fixed at 49.5 yuan. The intraday highest increase once exceeded 530%, with extremely fierce battles between bulls and bears, a price difference of over 17 yuan, and a trillion-yuan market cap instantly formed. Single winning users earned over twenty thousand yuan per share.
This extreme profit effect has fully ignited the entire storage sector's heat.
But I noticed a very common misunderstanding.
The vast majority of retail investors only focus on the soaring market sentiment,
follow the hype shouting bull market and tenfold gains, but they can't distinguish the underlying logic of the storage track at all.
The companies casually mentioned daily like Changxin, SK Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk
seem to all be storage companies, but in fact, their tracks are completely separate, their profit logics vastly different, and the benefiting market trends totally distinct.
Mindlessly mixing them together to follow speculation will most likely result in buying at the top.
Setting aside market heat, let's talk about the core industry fundamentals.
The storage industry has never been a single category; it is fundamentally divided into two major parts:
DRAM operating memory, which clears data when powered off, supporting phones, computers, and AI servers;
NAND flash storage, which retains data long-term, suitable for hard drives, USB drives, and memory cards.
The gap among all storage companies starts from these two categories, which is also the root cause of their different stock price trends and market logics.
Let's first talk about the market-exploding protagonist, Changxin Storage.
Many are misled by the IPO surge, mistakenly thinking it covers all storage dividends.
In reality, its business is extremely focused, deeply cultivating the DRAM memory track, and completely avoiding NAND flash.
As the only domestic IDM leader that has independently developed and produced DRAM chips, its core value is not about following AI hype,
but a solid domestic substitution logic.
In recent years, overseas giants have continuously cut general DRAM production, crazily shifting capacity to high-profit AI high-end HBM memory.
A large gap has appeared in global general memory capacity.
Changxin just fills this gap, supplying DDR5 and LPDDR5X in batches, steadily securing stable orders from consumer electronics and basic servers.
Here, I must warn everyone about the biggest pitfall.
Changxin currently does not have mass production capability for HBM; related products are still in the R&D sample delivery stage.
It cannot yet benefit from the most profitable and core HBM dividends in this AI storage boom.
Its rise logic is domestic substitution growth plus industry cycle resonance,
distinct from overseas storage giants violently boosted by AI, representing two completely different valuation systems.
Next, let's look at the most familiar SK Hynix.
It is the absolute core beneficiary of this AI storage market and the true track leader.
Unlike Changxin's single focus, Hynix runs dual lines, covering both DRAM and NAND.
Its real trump card is the monopolistic HBM high-bandwidth memory capacity.
Most of the HBM used in Nvidia's high-end AI graphics cards and AI servers comes from Hynix.
The extremely high premium and supply-demand imbalance have supported its super market performance over the past two years.
For Hynix, ordinary memory and flash business are just the basics.
The real driver of stock price and profit ceiling has always been HBM capacity and pricing.
This is the fundamental difference between it and Changxin: one benefits from domestic substitution, the other from AI high-end computing power dividends.
Next is Micron Technology.
As the only US original storage manufacturer, it is the most versatile yet unstable player in the industry.
It also runs dual lines DRAM+NAND, covering general storage, HBM, automotive-grade, and industrial-grade flash.
Its product line covers all niche scenarios, with a much more balanced business layout than the other two.
But its biggest risk is not the industry cycle but geopolitical policies.
Import-export controls and supply chain restrictions can affect its shipments and performance anytime, causing extreme stock price volatility.
Its HBM progress is between Hynix and Changxin.
It lacks the Korean company's monopolistic capacity and the domestic company's policy protection.
Its trend follows the global storage cycle and international situation more, with maximum uncertainty.
Finally, the most confused SanDisk.
A serious reminder: SanDisk must never be compared to Changxin or Hynix.
This is the most common rookie mistake.
SanDisk never does DRAM memory business; it only does NAND flash.
Our daily-used USB drives, TF cards, and consumer SSDs are its core business.
It was acquired by Western Digital early on, later spun off independently, focusing deeply on the consumer storage track.
It is completely disconnected from AI memory, server DRAM, and HBM markets.
It does not benefit from AI dividends or domestic substitution dividends.
Its trend only follows the consumer flash supply-demand cycle.
Mixing it with the first three original storage manufacturers is a fundamental misunderstanding of the track.
After discussing the core differences of these four companies, let's look back at Changxin's explosive market performance today.
Objectively, a large part of today's surge is driven by speculative sentiment.
Extremely low float, scarce domestic DRAM leader status, and extreme bullish market sentiment
combined to create a market detached from the usual industry cycle.
Currently, the market shows very clear divergence between bulls and bears.
Retail investors are crazily chasing high, gambling on tenfold gains, while institutions remain rational and restrained on valuation.
High turnover at the top, subsequent volatility and differentiation are inevitable trends.
Don't blindly go all in on the storage track just because the sector is broadly rising and new stocks are surging.
Different tracks, logics, and dividends mean individual stock trends will continue to diverge.
Short-term speculative sentiment will eventually fade.
Those who can stand firm at high levels will always be those with pure logic, realized capacity, and real performance support.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Let me share the story behind the creation of this article:
The topic was actually quite accidental. That day, I saw the Korean KOSPI open high and then turn down, and I thought the reaction behind this was interesting—what were Korean institutions trading? After figuring it out, I realized this was a variable in the global storage landscape, so I wanted to write about it.
The hardest part of writing was "not turning it into a financial press release." How much it rose on the first day, market cap, and data are easy to pile up, but no one reads just data. I kept asking myself: What does this mean for Samsung and SK Hynix? What does it mean for Nvidia, the buyer of storage? Pulling out this logical chain made me feel the article was somewhat interesting.
What I most want to express is: these are actually signals of the global competitive landscape. Storage pricing power is shifting from a duopoly to a three-party game. This change won't happen in a single quarter, but the starting point is today.
After publishing, someone asked me, "So should I buy Samsung or short it now?" This question made me realize many people, after reading, are still looking for a simple trading instruction. I think this is exactly what I want to avoid. Analysis is not the answer; it helps you think through the problem clearly.
DYOR!This could be a pivotal week for $BTC . History suggests FOMC weeks often bring heightened volatility. Over the past year, 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings have been followed by a notable Bitcoin pullback, with an average decline of around 10% in the week that followed. Interestingly, before last month's meeting, BTC was trading near $66K—almost the same level we're seeing now. It later dropped nearly 12% to $58K, marking fresh cycle lows. The only exception came in May, when Bitcoin defied expecta📊Tonychoo | Crypto Institution Daily (2026.07.27)
📰 Today's highlights
1️⃣ ETF spot withdrawals diverge sharply from derivatives volume expansion:
On July 24 Eastern Time, BTC/ETH spot ETFs saw over $310 million in outflows in a single day, but the 24-hour trading volume of derivatives across the network surged to $107.753 billion (an increase of 57.84%), with liquidations surging by 164%. The market is entirely driven by futures leverage, and spot funds remain sluggish in buying positions.
2️⃣ East Coast and South Korea spot prices are relatively cold:
Coinbase's premium index was -0.09, and South Korea's premium dropped to -0.3, reflecting weak spot buying by institutions and retail investors in Europe and the US.
3️⃣ Key fixes for on-chain structures:
Small whales (100~1k BTC) have returned to unprofitable positions, MVRV is forming a golden cross pattern, but the Bull Score (30) remains at the boundary between bear and neutral markets.
4️⃣ MicroStrategy (Saylor) Reserves:
Holding 884,377 BTC, total value $54.36 billion, average cost $75,653 (current unrealized loss -14.84%). Saylor tweeted that "another color is needed," and the market speculates it may introduce new asset reserves.
5️⃣ Macro and Policy Correlations:
The US and Iran confirmed the continued communication of information;
Charles Schwab has recognized the Clarity Act as the industry's most critical catalyst.
📊 Institutional Funding's Moves (Data from Friday, July 24, Eastern Time)
BTC ETF
🔴 Net outflow for the day: -$240.1 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (IBIT): -$212.2 million
• Fidelity (FBTC): -$27.9 million
Historical Data:
The cumulative net inflow of BTC ETFs across the entire network was $51.439 billion (IBIT cumulative +60.394 billion / GBTC cumulative -27.416 billion yuan).
ETH ETF
🔴 Single-day net outflow: -$70.7 million
Main outflows:
• BlackRock (ETHA): -$52.8 million
• Fidelity (FETH): -$27.8 million
🟢 Major counter-trend inflows: • Grayscale (ETH): +$9.9 million
Historical data: Total net inflow of ETH ETFs across the network was $11.211 billion (ETHA cumulative +11.41 billion / ETHE cumulative -5.337 billion).
📈 Market sentiment and macro indicators
Coinbase Premium Index: -0.09 (US institutional spot selling pressure is high)
Korean kimchi premium: -0.3 (retail sentiment is lukewarm)
Panic and Greed Index: 29 (in the "Panic" range)
Counterfeit Season Index / Total Network RSI: Counterfeit Season Index 54 (Neutral) | Overall RSI Average 51.96 (Neutral)
The DXY US Dollar Index retreated to 101.32, while spot gold remained fluctuating near $4,099/oz
📉 Derivatives and long-short game data
Total transaction volume across the entire network in 24 hours: $107.753 billion (+57.84%)
Total liquidation across the entire network in 24 hours: $218 million (+164.15%)
Total Open Interest (OI): $115.252 billion (+0.60%)
BTC
Price: approximately $65,380.2 (+1.41%)
Funding rate: 0.0070%
Total Open Interest (OI): $48.359 billion
24-hour liquidation: $37.7472 million
Distribution of long and short positions: 24-hour long-short ratio across the network 50.72% / 49.28%;
Binance's large account long-short ratio is 1.63.
Depth and order wall: Currently breaking through the previous sell order wall and consolidating at $65,280, accumulating a score of 73 (bullish), with core resistance above at the $66,000 sell order wall.
ETH
Price: approximately $1,957.47 (+4.13%)
Funding rate: 0.0074%
Open interest (OI) across the entire network: $28.022 billion
24-hour liquidation: $92.3682 million
Depth and suppression: Touching the native sell order wall, with three strong resistance levels distributed between $2,125 and above.
🔍 In-depth on-chain and technical observation
1️⃣ Severe Divergence Between Spot and Futures Demand:
BTC futures demand indicators have turned positive, but spot demand remains negative. Because spot selling exceeds futures buying, overall demand is in negative territory. This round of rally is essentially derivatives squeeze rather than genuine buying. In terms of liquidity, USDC maintained net inflows (US institutions are holding up defense), while USDT saw slight outflows (low non-US activity).
2️⃣ Cycle pattern and RSI recovery:
The 30MA and 90MA of the MVRV ratio are rapidly converging, and after the June death cross, a low-level golden cross is about to occur. The Bull Score Index rose to 30 (having escaped the extreme bear zone of 10); The LTH/STH SOPR ratio has broken through 1, and the relative profit ratio between long-term and short-term holders has returned to balance.
3️⃣ On-chain Tokens and Physical Activity:
"Little whales" holding 100~1,000 BTC have returned to unrealized profits, which historically has been one of the signals confirming a rebound.
4️⃣ ETH/BTC Structure Analysis:
The ETH/BTC exchange rate has converged to the end of a nearly 9-year cycle.
💬 In short
Derivatives leverage and on-chain technical indicators are recovering at low levels, but ETF outflows and negative spot demand have exposed the weakness of a lack of buying capital. Before the $66,000 resistance hit, blindly chase the rally is avoided.
💵 Understanding capital trends is more important 💵 than predicting prices
$BTC $ETH
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 Changxin Technology's push for a STAR Market listing signifies that China's DRAM industry is moving toward a larger capital market. With its local supply chain, massive domestic demand, and pricing strategy, Changxin may indeed capture more of the mid- to low-end market, and may even force Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to readjust their pricing. However, low prices are only part of the competitive edge; the real battles in the memory industry also include manufacturing processes, yields, HBM technology, customer certifications, and equipment acquisition. Especially under the Trump administration's emphasis on "America First," semiconductor policy may still focus on protecting American manufacturing and supply chains. In the past, the U.S. has imposed a 50% Section 301 tariff on Chinese semiconductors, and has provided Micron with subsidies up to about $6.165 billion through the CHIPS Act, while imposing export controls to restrict the flow of advanced semiconductor equipment and HBM-related technologies to China. If Changxin rapidly expands its global market share in the future, the U.S. may still raise tariffs, expand the restricted list, or further tighten equipment and technology exports. My View: Therefore, I believe Changxin will be a major variable in the global storage market, but in the long run, Micron, $SAMSUNG, and $SKHYNIX still have advantages in technology, customers, and supply chains. If you are optimistic about AI driving memory demand but don't want to put all your eggs in one basket, you can consider $DRAM to diversify across multiple global memory companies and reduce policy and technical risks for a single company.
The above content reflects only personal views and market observations and does not constitute any investment advice. Investments should still be made based on your own risk tolerance, financial situation, and research decisions$SKHYNIX The Q2 earnings report will be released on July 29. The core contradiction lies in the battle between extremely high fundamental expectations and the pressure to sell positions with high leverage. The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode.
Institutions forecast single-quarter operating profit of 64.1 trillion KRW, a year-on-year increase of nearly 600%, surpassing its total profits for the full year 2025 and establishing the explosive potential of the HBM structural cycle. An estimated operating margin of 75%-77% confirms the strong pricing power of high value-added products; however, the stock price has already drawn more than 30% from its peak, reflecting market concerns about the clearing of capital leverage.
The transmission path of event risk mainly focuses on rebalancing position structure and risk appetite. Retail investors' high-leverage funds enter concentriously before the earnings report milestone, amplifying short-term volatility and intensifying the short-term disconnect between price trends and fundamentals.
If the profit margin remains steadily above 75% after the earnings report and high leverage does not trigger a stampede, the stock price is likely to trigger a rebound scenario. This scenario requires observing the absorption of selling pressure on the day of the earnings report. If the volume volume breaks through the pullback trendline without liquidation stamping, the high valuation clearance phase will end.
If the earnings report is realized and triggers profit-taking exit and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, the stock price will trigger a second bottoming scenario. At this point, it is important to closely monitor the degree of stampede by high-leverage funds. If the pullback further expands and breaks below key support, the deleveraging process will be forced to prolong.
The signal of the upward scenario fails is that after the positive financial report materializes, turnover rates surge, but prices have not reached local highs, indicating that long funds are unable to absorb profit-taking. The downward scenario failed, with selling pressure being absorbed by strong buying immediately after the earnings report was released, with leverage ratios dropping rapidly and prices stabilizing after a stabilization.
The most important variable to watch in the next seven days is the speed of leveraged capital deposition and turnover rate before and after the July 29 earnings release.
#SPCX因星舰发射与解禁引发多空分歧 #RWA永续月交易量4700亿美元 #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Positive Moments or Shortcoming?A month or two ago, those who asked on the timeline whether Google, Micron, and Intel were already out of stock have gone silent now. When prices rise, they are bullish; when prices fall, they are bearish. What should be done?
The odds are indeed not as high as during the US-Iran conflict three months ago, when I straightforwardly said buy the dip.
Now it’s the left side; the closer to the valuation floor, the more worth buying in batches. Valuation and investment strategies have been shared in the subscription.
No leverage, no all-in, no all-out. Skin in the game.
Last April, when $GOOG was 140, $INTC 20, and $MU 70, no one could clearly say how these companies would make money three years later. Now it’s clear, the valuation multiples haven’t changed, but people are afraid to buy.
This is the definition of cognitive difference. The same valuation multiples last year meant uncertainty. Now buying means buying something already validated. The visibility of the denominator is completely different, yet the market demands the same or even higher discounts. The risk premium that should be compressed hasn’t been compressed.
So what is falling now? It’s the leverage from the excess returns between late March and May. Crowded trades clearing out, quarterly balancing, mid-year locking in floating profits.
These things have nothing to do with the company’s cash flow over the next three years. Investing in Capex now is infrastructure; airports must be built first before tickets can be sold one by one. I have shared that cash flow is very likely positive by 2028.
But institutions are assessed quarterly and must deliver relative returns within the window. Retail investors don’t have to play by these rules; time is the only structural advantage for retail investors, emotion is the biggest shortcoming, and the vast majority don’t understand the companies they invest in—this is what Burry rightly said.
Take a look at the articles I’ve shared about company fundamental analysis, which also include valuation and buyer records. Most people happen to give up on it when prices get cheap.
A stock price drop after a good earnings report doesn’t mean the fundamentals have been falsified. Strong stocks entering high-volatility consolidation don’t mean the long-term trend is over.
The long-term value of many excellent companies is precisely what keeps increasing during the decline.
Skin in the game. True investing is not about avoiding all volatility but knowing why you deserve to endure this volatility.From a medium- to long-term geopolitical perspective, both the US and Iran have strong economic incentives to ease tensions. Coupled with the implementation of a ceasefire memorandum and ongoing multilateral mediation, a phased reconciliation is an inevitable trend, and the geopolitical premium on crude oil will continue to decline.
The core anchor for global asset pricing remains the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Considering the current sticky inflation, resilient non-farm payrolls, and the latest dot plot guidance, there are only two possible policy paths within the year: maintaining the current high interest rates or resuming rate hikes; there is absolutely no basis for rate cuts.
The new chairman, Waller, sent a clear hawkish signal in his debut. His monetarist philosophy and tough anti-inflation stance are consistent over the long term. Even if there is no rate hike in this round of meetings, the tone remains hawkish. Market expectations for easing should not be overly relied upon. This is my personal opinion for reference only. 海峡双航道、乌克兰贸然袭击伊朗资源船只，今天的信息密度还是可以的
这也与我上周的分析基本吻合，美伊局势发展至今，要么All in 打一个昏天暗地，俄乌与美伊战争混战，S3概率提升
要么偃旗息鼓，双方各退一步，回归技术性谈判，进入长期的外交斡旋阶段
只要不是疯子，都不会选择all in，特朗普虽然癫了点，但是也不是战争疯子，这是可以预见的！
能源价格快速回落是预料之中，不过细节处可以发现，国际原油与美油之间的价差在快速缩减
这意味着美国本身的能源价格压力实际上更大！#美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌 With today's market situation, I finally feel like I'm catching my breath.
The US-Iran conflict has temporarily cooled down, oil prices have plunged sharply, Bitcoin has climbed back above $65,000, and Ethereum has rebounded even more fiercely. To put it simply, the market hasn't suddenly strengthened, but rather that the war and inflation expectations that had been weighing on have temporarily eased a bit.
But right now, I really don't dare get too excited.
Because this week still includes the Fed meeting, US GDP and PCE data, plus tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon releasing earnings reports, any result that falls short of expectations could further dampen the sentiment that has just returned.
Moreover, although Bitcoin broke through $65,000, its trading volume did not significantly increase, indicating that many people are still watching and have not truly started chasing aggressively.
So my current attitude is still the same as always:
The rebound is worth watching, but hold on for chasing highs.
Do you think you can hold onto 65,000 this time, or will it come back in a couple of days? $BTC #美军暂停对伊空袭，国际油价开盘大幅下跌
Breaking news: oil prices dropped 6%, the market is rushing ahead, and a bit too hastily.
The 6% drop in oil prices is a rush, not a fair valuation. The US military's pause in airstrikes is a fact; Brent crude briefly fell below $90 intraday, but there's a huge difference between "pause" and "ceasefire." Iran's stance is "more skeptical than optimistic," and the White House has clearly stated that if negotiations don't progress, a full-scale war resumption will definitely be considered. More critically, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed; fewer than 10 bulk commodity ships pass daily over the weekend. The oil price plunge is more about emotional release and short covering; the geopolitical risk itself has not eased in any substantive way.
Prediction markets give a 75% probability, but I am much more pessimistic than that. Polymarket's 75% seriously overestimates the likelihood of an agreement by the end of August. The US-Iran conflict has lasted nearly five months, mutual trust is almost zero, and two weeks is not even enough time to get both sides to the negotiating table. Prediction markets tend to amplify short-term optimistic expectations during extreme sentiment, so their reference value is limited.
A 6% drop in oil prices will not change the wording of the FOMC decision on Thursday. The Federal Reserve meets July 28-29, with the probability of a rate hike once approaching 40%. A single-day oil price fluctuation will not make the Fed reverse its judgment within three days—they focus on trends, not noise. Maintaining rates unchanged remains the most likely outcome, but the statement wording will likely lean hawkish.
My position is waiting for the FOMC decision statement early Thursday morning. BTC has returned above 65,000, Nasdaq futures opened higher, and risk assets are rebounding, but this is a news-driven emotional recovery, not a trend reversal. What I am waiting for is the Fed's official characterization of inflation and geopolitical risks—if the wording is dovish, it means the oil price drop carries weight in their eyes and they can raise rates; if hawkish, it means they don't consider this fluctuation significant, and this rebound is a chance to escape.
Jumping in now is betting on a ceasefire agreement within two weeks—that's too big a gamble, I won't take it. Do you like to gamble? 2014: Mt. Gox collapses, BTC at $200, bottoming out after 3 weeks.
2018: BitGrail collapsed, BTC at $3,200, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2022: FTX collapsed, BTC at $16,000, bottoming out after 2 weeks.
2026: BitMEX collapses, BTC $63,000, bottoming out in 2-3 weeks?
Every time, the market says, "This time is different."
Every time, the market is wrong.
The difference is: the market caps of BTC in the first three rounds were $2B, $20B, and $300B respectively. Now it's $1.3T.
Same rules, but on a larger scale. $BTC $ETH $SOL🚨 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong 最新表示，比特币这一轮调整或许已经接近尾声。
他认为，市场已经完成了本轮重要的筑底过程，BTC近期稳守7万美元附近，长期上涨逻辑依然没有发生改变。对于真正的长期投资者来说，短期波动只是市场常态，而不是趋势反转。
Armstrong表示，机构资金仍在持续流入数字资产市场。比特币现货ETF保持稳定吸金，多家上市公司继续增持BTC作为储备资产，全球多个国家也在加快完善加密资产监管框架，为行业带来更明确的发展环境。
与此同时，近期还有几项重要利好值得关注：
📈 美国市场持续关注美联储未来政策路径，市场普遍预期流动性环境有望进一步改善。
🏦 多家国际金融机构宣布扩大数字资产和稳定币相关业务，加快区块链支付基础设施建设。
⚡ 企业级比特币采用率持续提升，越来越多机构将BTC视为长期资产配置的重要组成部分。
🤖 AI、RWA（现实世界资产代币化）以及链上金融等新赛道持续吸引资金关注，为整个加密市场注入新的增长动力。
虽然短期市场仍可能出现震荡，但Armstrong认为，真正推动比特币上涨的基本面依然稳固。每一次合理回调，更像是在为下一轮上涨积蓄力量，而不是值得恐慌的信号。
$BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #Crypto #FOMC #AI #RWA Micron vs Kioxia: Has the storage cycle reversed?
Micron's earnings report just sparked mixed market reactions
The AI computing chain is the largest beta of 2024-2026.
HBM revenue increased by +60% year-over-year. The beta is the most direct demand for AI computing power.
Micron vs Kioxian. Both companies reversed their cycles, and the storage sector rose together.
HBM unit price. HBM3E 12-layer is five times more expensive than DDR5.
These data are not isolated; they depend on resonance.
No one knows the bottom, so don't worry.
📌 AI demand depends on three factors beyond revenue
Quarterly financial reports from semiconductor companies are important, but revenue growth alone cannot be judged. It also depends on whether HBM capacity can be delivered, whether gross margin improvements are sustainable, and whether customer capital expenditures will shift from training to reasoning. Strong demand does not mean all suppliers can turn demand into free cash flow.
🧭 How will I track them?
First, look at order visibility and capacity utilization. Second, check the match between product price, yield, and capital expenditure. Third, cross-validate the company's performance with peers, upstream equipment, and downstream cloud service providers. If only the stock price rises and fundamentals don't keep up, I treat it as a trading rather than a long-term allocation.
⚠️ Risk reminders
AI narratives tend to factor forward expectations into valuations, and increased supply or deferred customer spending can cause sharp volatility. Watching financial reports does not constitute investment advice; you should still decide based on your own horizon and risk tolerance.
🎯 The final execution framework
First, observe whether performance is verified for two consecutive quarters, then use phased and quota controls to control fluctuations; Do not ignore valuation and exit conditions because of a popular tag.
I'll break this topic down into three layers. The first layer is data that can be directly observed. First, record values, time, and direction, avoiding jumping to conclusions based on just one screenshot; The second layer is how the market reacts: data improves but prices remain unchanged, and weakening data but prices still rise—the meaning is completely different; The third layer is your own operations: first write down your maximum tolerable loss, then decide whether to adjust your position. This sequence may seem slow, but it helps reduce being carried away by a single headline.
For me, order visibility, capacity utilization, and valuation should be compared on the same table. Each update only changes the parts with new evidence; a single change in number cannot overturn the entire judgment. If the three observation directions contradict each other, I would downgrade the conclusion to 'waiting for confirmation' rather than forcing a bullish or bearish story. The most easily overlooked cost in the market is determining it too early and then refusing to admit that the assumption has failed.
In practice, I first use observation positions to test and wait until at least two of the trading volume, price, and fundamentals are aligned in the same direction, then consider increasing exposure; If volatility increases or liquidity thins, reduce your position first. Any backtesting, historical cases, or KOL perspectives can only be used to establish hypotheses and cannot replace current risk checks. This article is my research notes, not buy or sell orders that guarantee profits.
In my next update, I will re-examine four things: whether the message is still valid, whether the price reaction has been confirmed, whether liquidity is sufficient to execute, and whether the original risk assumptions have been broken. If it's just a rise in social media buzz without seeing trading volume or capital support, I treat it as a signal to watch; If the data direction changes, the original script will be updated accordingly, rather than holding it for the sake of saving face.
The advantage of this approach is that it separates "perception" from "action." Opinions can retain multiple possibilities, but actions must have clear triggering conditions. For short-term trading, I set a time limit; For medium- to long-term allocations, I will check fundamentals and capital costs. No matter the final outcome, record the reasons for entry, exit, and actual slippage, so that next time you'll have real material for improvement.
If sources conflict with each other, I will mark the conflict first and wait for confirmation in the original announcement or the next time, rather than using social media sentiment as evidence. This also means that sometimes the best strategy is to wait without a position, because not trading itself is also a way to manage uncertainty.Another exchange collapsed. Yesterday, BitMart announced its closure. In the past 24 hours, only 58 wallets were able to withdraw, with a total withdrawal amount of about $805,000, and no withdrawals processed in the past 8 hours.
In recent years, there have been too many contract gurus figures with the image of stable profits multiplying dozens of times a year. They package their trading curves, showcase screenshots of sudden wealth, and then guide users to small platforms with no guaranteed liquidity or risk control
During bull markets, all problems are covered by price increases, but in bear markets, after liquidity fades, true strength is proven. Small firms' problems don't erupt overnight; they accumulate gradually during bear markets, with declining trading volume, reduced income, and increased capital chain pressure
So often, don't be tempted by stories about guaranteed profits doubling your investment. Those people usually end up with some little scam firm, and when you can't withdraw your funds, you'll be in tears.$ETH
Still hesitating for Ethereum under 2000?
Time to get in the car!
Currently, the price of Ethereum is about 1950!
The first major event, and the most tangible signal: the number of people queuing for staking and exiting has been completely wiped out!
To give you an analogy, staking is like a fixed deposit—you have to deposit 32 ETH to participate, and you have to queue up to withdraw your money.
Last year, when the market was bad, a bunch of big players lined up to withdraw money, with long lines waiting dozens of days to withdraw. At that time, the big players were all fleeing, and the market definitely fell.
Now, on the other hand, no one is lining up to withdraw money; they can take it anytime they want, which shows that the big holders stockpiling ether have no intention of selling at all.
Not only did no one leave, but a pile of funds lined up to deposit it—over 2.4 million ETH waiting to be pledged, with the queue taking more than forty days to deposit.
To put it simply: smart people are quietly hoarding, and no one wants to sell or dump, making it hard for the market to drop sharply.
The second issue is that the U.S. regulatory bill has failed, and it won't be resolved before the August holidays.
Previously, many people hoped for this bill to be implemented, hoping that once official rules were established, big institutions would flood in and buy coins.
Now, with no short-term hope, many retail investors are anxious, afraid the market will continue to stall.
But just look at the big players' actions—if they were really afraid of trouble, they'd have lined up to withdraw money and run off, but instead, they locked up their holdings and didn't move.
Simply put, retail investors are startled by rumors, while truly wealthy investors only care about long-term value and remain unfazed.
Third, the conflict in the Middle East has eased a bit. Previously, people were afraid of wars and sold their coins to exchange for US dollars as a safe haven.
It's not as tight now, and the market is a bit looser, which has helped Ethereum hold up some of the bottom; otherwise, prices would have continued to decline today.
Now, let me share my honest opinion:
1. Don't expect big surges or drops in the short term; right now it's just a tempting fluctuation. The price below 1870 is hard support and will be hard to break below
2. No need to panic and sell losses every day; big players hold onto their funds. Opportunities to sell ETH are becoming scarce and scarce. A big drop is a chance to buy bargains—don't panic and sell your positions just because it drops.
3. Avoid those messy meme coins and meme tokens; all price movements rely on hype, resetting zero at will. The risk is too high, so focus on mainstream reliable Ethereum stocks.
4. If you can hold long-term, don't panic. Most of Ether is now locked and pledged, and fewer coins circulate in the market. If there's any positive news in the future, the price will be strong.
One last piece of advice: Don't follow news and trade frequently; if you keep struggling, you'll lose a lot on fees. Only by holding onto the bottom chip can you make money! The rise in BTC dominance and ETH/BTC falling below 0.05 indicate that the market appears to be structurally differentiated, and real pricing is laying the groundwork for a systemic decline.
Is the market shifting from a "selective counterfeit rebound" to a "full-line liquidity exhaustion"?
- Original fact: BTC dominance is 56.8% and is rising; ETH/BTC fell below 0.05; altcoin 20-day moving average volume is 18% below the average. The original text divides the market into four stages: BTC/ETH/SOL leading the gains; Some altcoins (JELLYJELLY, OPG, SLX, LAB, BSB, ALLO, CHIP) followed the rise; Weak coins (BEAT, COAI, SPACE, VIRTUAL) only rebounded slightly; The final stage is a reversal of leading coins and triggering a sell-off. Currently, the third phase is underway.
- Structural changes: altcoin volume has shrunk by 18% and is below the 20-day moving average, indicating that buying is exhausting rather than rotational. The rise in BTC dominance means funds are flowing from altcoins to BTC, but the institutional signal that ETH/BTC fell below 0.05 indicates that BTC's capital inflows are not from new buying but from existing safe-haven assets. The market is undergoing a defensive position adjustment of "selling offcoins, not buying ETH, holding BTC cash equivalents."
- Pricing impact: Altcoins lack new buy orders, so the rebound depends on BTC's sustained rise to drive risk appetite. However, the rise in BTC dominance itself suppresses altcoin valuations, creating negative feedback. If BTC fails to break through the current high, the altcoin will be directly under pressure; If BTC pulls back, altcoins are likely to fall even further. ETH/BTC falling below 0.05 indicates reduced institutional willingness to allocate ETH, further weakening overall market liquidity.
- Bullish path: BTC maintains high volatility and drives a decline in dominance. When altcoins recover trading volume above 30% and ETH/BTC returns to 0.05, they may start a catch-up rally before the fourth phase. The 30% increase in trading volume mentioned in the original text for LAB, BSB, ALLO, and CHIP is a local observation point.
- Bearish risk: BTC dominance continues to rise to around 58%, ETH/BTC has fallen below 0.045, and altcoin volume can further shrink to below 25% of the 20-day moving average. At this point, the fourth phase (the leading coin reversal sell-off) will be triggered, and the market will enter a full-scale decline. The original warning that "just one bad piece of news will lead to a sell-off" is a reasonable expectation.
- Conclusion: The current market is not rotating, but rather a one-way contraction of liquidity from altcoins to BTC to cash. Holding cash is currently the most effective position.
Risk: If altcoin volume remains below more than 20% of the 20-day moving average, the rebound structure will fail.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #加密货币 #市场分析Bitcoin $BTC is very likely to follow a recurrent oscillation pattern similar to February to May. At this stage, there will not be unilateral sharp rises or falls, but rather repeated sideways movements. Altcoins may actually have opportunities for rotational momentum recently.
I think it's hard to call it a major bottom right now. The timing and magnitude of the adjustment haven't been in place yet, and with no expectations for rate cuts at the time, there's a lack of upward catalyst. Moreover, historically, during U.S. midterm elections, Bitcoin has mostly experienced varying degrees of correction, so the probability of a direct bottom here is very low.
History never fully repeats itself, but trends will always be highly similar. The real bottom often appears when the market is panicked and everyone is hesitant and doubtful.[Graphic Observation | Oil Price Transmission] At 12:45 Beijing time, WTI was $83.4750 (-6.41%), Brent was $87.5200 (-6.06%), with a price difference of about $4.05 per barrel.
Observation perspective: Here, it's not just about oil price fluctuations, but about their transmission to inflation expectations, dollar liquidity, and risk asset valuations. If oil prices rise but the dollar strengthens in tandem, crypto assets may actually come under pressure.
Background of Golden October: Why have the US dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? | Gold October futures heat chart—breaking traditional logic! With the US dollar strengthening, gold and crude oil should be under pressure to fall. But in reality, why have the dollar, crude oil, and gold recently seen a "rare simultaneous rise"? A chart to understand.
Verification point: WTI holds above the 20-day moving average and the spread is stable, showing a range-bound consolidation; If the spread widens and falls below the moving average, demand pressure will be priced in again.
Risk warning: If OPEC+ caliber, inventory, or geopolitical events exceed expectations, the above transmission observations may need to be revalued. For market observation purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
Changxin Technology debuted on the STAR Market with a strong opening on its first day, reaching a market value of ¥3.31 trillion, instantly becoming the largest stock by market cap in the A-share market. This figure is not a bubble; it reflects the market pricing a fact: China's storage production capacity has officially entered the global competitive pricing system.
The timing is very precise and deliberate.
Just one week before the listing, Anthropic locked in Samsung and SK Hynix, NVIDIA invested in South Korea's Naver, and the narrative of AI orders concentrating on the Korean giants had just taken shape. Changxin's listing at this moment is not about riding the hype; it is signaling to the market that the storage war is not yet decided, and Chinese production capacity is the third variable.
The KOSPI index rose more than 1.7% in early trading today but then turned down, indicating the market is re-pricing the competitive landscape. Samsung and SK Hynix secured large orders from Anthropic and NVIDIA, but Changxin's entry is loosening their pricing power, giving buyers an additional bargaining chip.
I believe the real highlights are not the first-day gains but the two variables ahead.
First is the DRAM contract price.
After Changxin scales up mass production, the negotiation logic for contract prices will change. The Korean giants' current pricing advantage is based on relatively concentrated supply; with Chinese capacity entering, this foundation is loosening. It won't be a cliff drop, but the direction is clear.
Second is the pace of capacity expansion by each player.
Will Samsung and SK Hynix accelerate HBM capacity expansion to reinforce their high-end barriers because of Changxin's entry? If they choose to move upward and let Changxin occupy the mid-to-low end, the entire storage market will see clear stratification, and valuation logic will diverge accordingly.
XNVDA rose 0.35% today, Samsung fell 0.55%, and XSKHY dropped 0.79%; this divergence itself is the answer. NVIDIA is not afraid of intensified storage competition because computing power demand is expanding, and falling storage prices actually reduce its procurement costs. The pressure is on Korean storage manufacturers, especially the pricing space for mid-to-low-end DRAM.
Changxin's listing is a starting point, not an endpoint. The dual-giant structure is becoming a three-party one; this won't complete in a single quarter, but from today, the global storage pricing model needs to add a new variable.
DYOR Not investment advice Bitcoin is currently stuck in a narrow oscillation near $64,300, with a severe lack of direction. What truly deserves concern is the underlying currents in the capital market—over the past two days, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $465 million. Institutions are not bottom-fishing but orderly withdrawals. This is not a signal of a build-up attack, but rather the main force quietly distributing chips through the volatility. 📉
Ethereum is relatively stable, relying on sustained ETF fund flows, rebounding to around $1,860 after a weekend pullback, temporarily holding its ground. But the macro environment is not favorable: crude oil prices continue to rise, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury is rising in tandem, and dual pressures have fueled risk-off sentiment, which is theoretically bearish for risk assets. On the other hand, the regulatory advancement of the CLARITY Act and Trump's exposure of cryptocurrency interests have made the market extremely cautious about policy interpretation, pushing bullish and bearish sentiment to the extreme. 🔥
Technically, the key support is at $64,253, with resistance at $64,409. The range is extremely narrow, and neither bulls nor bears are showing signs of strength—a typical 'wait for news' pattern. At this stage, Bitcoin isn't about to rise, but waiting—waiting for the outcome of next week's monetary policy meeting, for ETF funds to truly turn into net inflows, and for oil prices and geopolitical risks to cool down. Before the trend is confirmed, rather than guessing the direction, it's better to focus on the flow of real money. DYOR。 🧠
#加密货币 #btc #ethHBULL has just seen a change more alarming than the price drop: the creator's direct position rose from about 6.20% to 8.70%, while an address that originally held 2.50% exits the front line. The exact number on both sides matches perfectly, indicating that a lock of tokens likely returned to the creator's disposable wallet.
Contract: 7V6Sk63y8Rr1MvcN5mYNp61wgFhy4EeQg5gUASk9pump
The total source of the project tokens remains about 23.70%, but the risk structure has changed—previously 17.50% was spread across seven locked addresses, but now only six, and the share directly controlled by creators has become 8.70%. At current prices, the nominal value is about $122,000, slightly higher than the main pool's total depth of about $117,000; The impact when actually sold would be much greater than this simple conversion.
Next, let's look at three things: whether the project team disclosed the source and use of this 2.50% loan; Whether these coins have been re-locked and cannot be freely withdrawn; Did the creators transfer the coins to the trading pool? If the creator starts selling, continues to receive locked positions, or multiple project wallets are pooled simultaneously, I will give up on observing.
FAL also had its ups and downs: cumulative burns within two hours increased from 2.515% to 2.808%, and total supply continued to decrease; But prices fell about 24%, and Chishen dropped about 14%. Newly obtained holdings data show that after excluding pool custody contracts, the top ten account for about 22.86%, which is neither safe nor out of control. Just because the product mechanism is working doesn't mean the market will definitely buy it.
There is also an early web game called GridClimb, which already has open beta, daily tournaments, sprint sessions, leaderboard pages, and contracts like DyFGNzidqg1CJtUNfXkLd9mQ5BsoxKUxiBHx54vDpump. However, it only has 89 token-holding addresses and about $3,200 in curve reserves, lacking independent player evidence, and is only suitable for further verification. High-risk research records, not trade advice.The party holding the authority to submit amendments relented and decided to open the proposal channel between both parties, finally giving the encrypted clarity bill a chance to be voted on.
Most bills were not rejected by opposing votes, but were simply shelved because they couldn't enter the voting process. The Democrats, premised on bipartisan cooperation, demanded the submission of Loomis's amendment, and thus both sides returned to the negotiating table. The initiation of the process itself was a key step forward.
Previously, there were no clear legal provisions in the industry, and the definition of securities and commodities depended entirely on regulatory discretion and litigation, so capital had long flowed to countries with transparent rules. Now, both sides have proposed amendments, not to abolish the bill, but to openly refine the clauses, putting the rules on paper and no longer relying on personal subjective judgment.
Setting rules requires pushing for the implementation of votes, while a state of disorder that can be left unchecked can continue. The previously arbitrary pattern has finally started to reverse this time, and signals of bill advancement have appeared. #参议院CLARITY法案下周或表决: Favorable Moments or Shortcoming? 海力士这波杀跌，别扯基本面，就是一场血腥的“卸杠杆”
今天收盘176,500韩元，又跌了快8%。算上今天，一个月跌掉40%。
有人问：海力士怎么了？HBM不卖了？AI不搞了？
别扯了。什么都没变，变的是人心和仓位。
说白了，这轮下跌，就是一场血腥的卸杠杆游戏。
第一，市场终于回过神来了——投AI也是要算账的
谷歌、微软财报都看了吧？数字漂亮，但市场不买账。为什么？因为大家突然发现，你们投了那么多钱，自由现金流反而绷紧了。
之前市场是傻子逻辑——谁投AI多，我就买谁。现在是稍微清醒了一点——你投100块，到底能赚回多少？什么时候赚？
这个“稍微清醒”，对海力士这种卖铲子的，是致命打击。不是铲子不好卖了，而是矿主们开始掂量口袋里的钱了。
第二，涨价游戏玩不下去了
上半年HBM涨、DDR5涨、NAND涨，什么都涨。市场已经把未来两年的涨价预期都交易进去了。
然后TrendForce这种机构开始吹风——部分NAND需求正常化。正常化？翻译成人话就是：涨不动了。
股价里已经装了100分的涨价预期，现在现实可能只有85分。那15分的落差，谁来买单？当然是追高的散户和杠杆党。
第三，这才是最关键的——韩股那帮杠杆资金在互相踩踏
韩国散户有多猛，不用我多说。单股杠杆ETF、杠杆基金，堆了多少？跌了就要砍，砍了继续跌，跌了再砍。
这不是基本面定价，这是流动性绞杀。
外资和机构上周卖了2.6万亿韩元。谁接的？没人接。那就只能自由落体。
至于什么崔泰源离婚要卖股票——别信那个鬼故事。他根本不直接持股海力士。这纯粹是下跌时候媒体找的“背锅侠”，让散户有个能骂的对象而已。
技术面，我就说一句人话：
175万这个位置，是最后的体面。守住了，还能喘口气。守不住，下面168万见。
往上？先站回190万再跟我谈止跌。200万以上？那是多头做梦的地方。
最后说句实在话。
我不会因为跌了40%就觉得便宜。A股港股那种“越跌越买”的思维，在韩股杠杆盘面前，容易被反复收割。
但我也不同意那些说“AI存储周期结束”的鬼话。HBM的供需缺口还在，英伟达的订单还在，海力士的技术优势还在。
什么都没变，变的是价格里已经装了多少预期。
现在的问题是：预期从“极度乐观”拧到“极度悲观”，这个过程还没走完。
7月29日财报，要么是止血针，要么是第二刀。
我个人偏向前者——但不妨碍我现在先站着看，不伸手。
记住：真正的底部，是那些杠杆爆仓的人割完肉之后，才出现的。现在，还没听见响。#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be announced. This is the biggest macro event for the global risk markets this week, and the crypto market is very likely to experience a sharp wave of volatility.
Current market expectations are clearly divided. The baseline judgment of the vast majority of institutional economists is to maintain the current interest rate range unchanged, but CME interest rate futures have already priced in nearly a 30% chance of a rate hike. This level of uncertainty is very high compared to previous monetary policy cycles, indicating that both bulls and bears are cautious. On one hand, the June CPI data showed a significant decline and nonfarm payroll data weakened, providing reasons for the Fed to hold steady; on the other hand, the Middle East situation repeatedly disrupts oil prices, which could rebound at any time, posing a risk of inflation resurgence. Hawkish officials continue to keep the possibility of restarting rate hikes open. It is worth noting that this meeting will not update the dot plot, so the chairman's remarks at the post-meeting press conference will become the biggest trigger for the market, with every statement directly stirring the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.
For the crypto market, the Fed's policy is always the underlying command baton that cannot be ignored. Interest-free risk assets like Bitcoin have valuations highly tied to the U.S. dollar liquidity environment. If this decision leans hawkish, signaling concerns about inflation and implying room for future rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, directly suppressing risk appetite for crypto assets and likely causing price pressure and pullbacks; conversely, if the speech signals dovishness, acknowledging economic weakness and completely dismissing the possibility of rate hikes, risk assets will see a short-term emotional recovery.
However, we cannot simply bet in black and white terms. The current situation is prone to "reversal upon landing": even if rates remain unchanged, a tough tone in the press conference will still be interpreted as hawkish; conversely, even if policy flexibility is retained but concerns about the economy are expressed, funds may interpret this as positive. Many traders have suffered losses by focusing only on the rate decision and ignoring the verbal signals afterward, ultimately being caught in the back-and-forth market swings.
At the same time, external variables cannot be ignored. The oil price fluctuations caused by the U.S.-Iran situation will indirectly constrain the Fed's actions. If oil prices surge again and inflationary pressure returns, even if the Fed holds steady this time, the probability of future rate hikes will increase, and this long-term shadow will hang over the market.
From a practical perspective, it is not suitable to take heavy one-sided positions before and after the decision. Instant spikes and sweeping orders back and forth are normal when the news breaks. Spot holders should focus on changes in the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to judge whether the market is undergoing genuine recovery or just a short-term emotional pulse. Do not bet on a fixed outcome; prepare plans and have corresponding responses ready whether the tone is hawkish or dovish.
Macro factors will not directly determine price moves over a few days but will define the broader market environment for the coming period. The statement early Thursday will set the tone for global markets in the weeks ahead. We patiently await the signal to land.
$BTC $ETH Changxin goes public with a big listing! It will have a significant impact on US tech stocks. Changxin: Only makes DRAM memory chips (computers, servers, car system RAM), not NAND flash, USB drives, or solid-state drives; Micron: Across all tracks, DRAM as the main focus, also considering NAND, automotive-grade storage, and AI high-end HBM; SanDisk: Pure NAND flash memory track, mainly selling USB flash drives, mobile solid-state drives, and consumer-grade SSDs, with almost no DRAM production capacity; Tesla: Downstream storage automaker, purchasing Micron DRAM for autonomous driving and in-car computing power. Micron: Medium- to long-term negative factors, short-term sentiment under pressure (biggest impact) Direct impact logic: Changxin raised tens of billions to fully expand DRAM production and lay out automotive/server DDR5 and HBM high-end memory; Currently, 90% of the global DRAM market share is monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Changxin's 2028 global market share target is 17%, directly dividing Micron's global DRAM base. Domestic government, enterprises, and cloud providers (Alibaba, ByteDance, automakers) prioritize purchasing of domestic Changxin, Micron lost massive domestic server and consumer electronics DRAM orders, significantly weakening its pricing power. The three overseas giants can no longer jointly control production and drive up memory prices, the storage price hike cycle has peaked, suppressing Micron's gross margin. Short-term market reaction: On the day news of Changxin's listing was announced, the US storage sector plunged across the board, with Micron dropping nearly 7% in a single day, as funds priced in in the expectation of "domestic expansion squeezing overseas market share." Buffer and Hedging Point: Micron's strengths lie in high-end HBM and automotive-grade storage🧵 BTC long-bear extreme battle! ETFs have seen large outflows for two consecutive days, with the fear index hitting a low of 29. Are institutional players picking up chips or preparing to dump?
Market segment: BTC is currently quoted at $65,218, up 1.16% in 24H. Today, after hitting a low of $64,236, it rebounded strongly and reached a high of $65,461, with fluctuations exceeding $1,200. Currently, the price is repeatedly tuggling around $65,200, which serves as the support level of the daily Bollinger middle band, with a significant divergence between bulls and bears. On the hourly chart, after a short break from $65,100 to $65,460 in early Asian trading, there was a clear pullback, indicating considerable selling pressure above.
On-chain segment: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows over the past two consecutive trading days—$225M outflow on July 23, and another $240M outflow on July 24. This is not a good sign. But looking at July as a whole, net ETF inflows for the month still reached $970M+, indicating institutional bottom-ups. On the Solana side of smart money, CBBTC (Coinbase Wrapped BTC) led with a net inflow of $970,000. CBBTC is the core channel bridging BTC into the Solana ecosystem, indicating that on-chain funds are accumulating. JIMOTHY and CRCLX also saw net inflows exceeding $700,000, and sentiment on the Solana chain has clearly warmed up.
My judgment: The fear index of 29 is still hovering in the Fear range, so short-term ETF outflows are more like a temporary profit-taking rather than a trend reversal. Remain bullish until $64,200 is not broken, but $65,600 is a key resistance level this week; if it fails to break through, a pullback to $63,800 is highly likely. Medium- and long-term holders should actually be happy at this point—when others panic, their chips are cheaper. Short-term traders should pay attention to controlling leverage, as volatility is clearly amplifying.2026年7月27日（周一）以太坊今日分析——承接上周“1,836低点→1,900分水岭失守→周末地缘缓和反弹”的节奏，今天亚盘强势突破1,920–1,950阻力区，现报 约1,948–1,954美元（24h +3.7%~+4.3%），表现明显强于BTC，属于上升笔延伸+资金向ETH轮动的修复阶段，但FOMC（7/29-30）前仍按“反弹”而非“反转”处理。
一、实时盘面（截至午间12:30）
现价：≈ 1,950 美元，24h +3.7%~+4.3%，日内高 1,954–1,967、低 1,885–1,900 一带
结构：自1,836低点反弹，已实体突破1,920–1,950前阻区；小时MACD零轴上金叉放量，日线MACD零轴下绿柱急剧萎缩、快慢线粘合，中期空头压制减弱但未转多。
情绪：恐慌贪婪 26–30（恐惧边缘，未过热）；ETH/BTC比价回升至0.0298–0.0300附近，资金从BTC向ETH轮动迹象明确。
资金：7/24 ETH ETF单日净流出7,062万（结束5连入），但周度仍净流入1.039亿、月度累计流入3.38亿，现货ETF偏好阶段性偏向ETH；链上质押率33.6%新高、退出队列归零，抛压被结构性压缩。
二、今日核心驱动
地缘降温（直接催化）：特朗普暂停对伊扩大打击+霍尔木兹谈判进展→布油从100+跌回86–92→通胀/加息叙事缓和，10年美债4.66%高位边际回落，无息资产机会成本下降，ETH高β属性弹性释放。
ETH独立利好：质押锁仓创纪录（250万ETH排队进场）+ CLARITY/GENIUS法案参议院冲刺预期，ETH供给端+监管端双托底，弹性强于BTC。
BTC带节奏但未压制：BTC收复65,200，ETH/BTC回升说明不是纯跟涨，有自身买盘；但FOMC前机构仍防御，反弹高度受限于宏观悬剑。
技术过热：1小时指标钝化、4h靠近超买，1,950–1,967是近期前高压力区，直接追多盈亏比差。
三、今日关键价位（沿用前几日框架上移）
上方阻力：1,960–1,967（近期前高压力区）→ 1,980–2,000（整数关+多空转换带，站上才中期修复）→ 2,030–2,050（前密集成交区）
短线支撑：1,920–1,950（刚突破的阻力转支撑，回踩不破则结构健康）→ 1,900–1,915（小时均线共振+整数关）→ 1,885–1,890（昨夜低点/强支撑）
多空分水岭：1,920 小时线收盘——站稳偏上升笔攻1,960；有效跌破1,900则反弹结构受损看1,885。
四、今日（日间+晚间）思路
主基调：1,950上方不追多，等回踩1,920–1,940企稳低多；1,960–1,967无量短空。FOMC前仓位≤10%、杠杆减半。
回踩 1,920–1,940 缩量企稳、15min收下影→轻仓试多（≤8%），止损1,908下，目标1,960 / 1,980。
反抽 1,960–1,967 缩量长上影→小仓短空（≤5%），止损1,978，目标1,940 / 1,920。
放量1h站上 1,980→右侧看2,000–2,030；放量破 1,900→不接飞刀，等1,885 / 1,850承接。
今晚盯：美股开盘纳指方向、布油是否再冲90、10年美债能否落回4.60下，三者决定1,920是真支撑还是假突破。
基于公开行情与多源研报整理，仅供参考，不构成投资建议；ETH波动大于BTC，严控止损。
今晚ETH就盯一条线：1,920小时线能否收住，配合ETH/BTC能否稳0.030、BTC 65,200分水岭判断上升笔延续性。$ETH ETH's current bearish logic: after rebounding around 1966 over the weekend, bullish volume clearly weakens, making it hard to sustain the rise without volume; Combined with dense resistance above 1960-1970, short-term overbought means increase pressure to revert to the mean. On-chain data shows that if it falls below 1818, the liquidation strength of mainstream CEXs long positions will reach $720 million, potentially opening up the lower limits.
· Entry reference: Short on rallies around 1960-1970
· Stop-loss reference: above 1982-1988 (conservative above 1975)
· Take-profit reference: look at 1900, 1860-1850, break out at 1820-1800, aggressive move can reach 1650Changxin is aiming for a valuation of 3 trillion to 3.3 trillion yuan. I can only say: watching the show is fine, but be cautious about taking the baton.
Hynix's Q1 net profit is about 8 times that of Changxin, yet its market cap is less than double; Changxin's profit is roughly 13.6% of Hynix's, but its valuation has already exceeded a 30x PE. This is not just a bit expensive; it's a clear valuation inversion.
More importantly, the gap is not just in profits.
Changxin has crossed the mainstream DRAM mass production threshold, but its main products are still concentrated in DDR4, DDR5, and LPDDR; Hynix has already taken the lead in HBM3E and is pushing forward with HBM4 mass production and customer adoption. Technology, orders, certifications, packaging capabilities, and moat are not even in the same league.
So the question is straightforward:
Profit is 8 times different, technology is far behind, moat is much weaker, so why is the market cap less than double?
Of course, a small float, capital driving, and the Chinese characteristic valuation system could indeed continue to push it higher, even to more exaggerated levels.
But that looks more like a chip game, not profit realization.
If you buy in at 3 trillion, rising to 5 trillion is a story; falling back to 1 trillion means nearly a two-thirds drop.
For cyclical stocks, the biggest danger is not that they can't rise, but that one day the market suddenly stops telling stories and re-prices based on performance and cash flow.
Whether it can rise and whether it should be bought are two different things.
Focus on logic, not opinions.
Do you think Changxin is worth 3 trillion, or has it already overdrawn many years of future growth? #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 ❓ Why is it that the S&P has barely fallen, yet the tech stocks in your holdings may have dropped significantly? Because right now, the US stock market isn't a broad rally, but rather capital is reselecting investors within tech stocks. As of 12:27 Beijing time on July 27, 2026, US stocks were still closed for the weekend. The latest effective closing data was: Stock's daily closing price change: SPY $738.93 +0.10%, QQQ $684.23 -1.12%, DIA $518.76 +0.48%, AAPL333.02 USD +3.53%, NVDA206.84 USD -0.92%, MSFT381.70 USD +0.03% META595.19 USD -1.80%, TSLA313.03 USD -2.08% 🍎 Apple won, but the tech sector did not. Apple closed at $333.02, just about 0.59% away from the 52-week high of $334.99. But QQQ fell 1.12%, while Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla all weakened. This shows that funds are not withdrawing from US stocks, but are instead betting more heavily on a few strong companies. The index is still trading sideways, and individual stocks have already started to stratify: Apple represents strong capital grouping, Microsoft represents temporary sideways trading, Nvidia and Meta represent absorption at high levels, Tesla continues to release volatility risks 🔍. What to watch for next trading day? First, can Apple break through $335? If other tech stocks follow the rally after the breakout, it will be considered a sector recovery. Second, can QQQ reclaim $690? It won't hold backThis is going to be a very interesting week for $BTC.
Over the past 12 months, eight of the last nine FOMC meetings have been followed by a relatively large sell-off.
Across those eight flushes, $BTC declined roughly 10% on average over the following week.
During last month’s meeting, price was trading in almost exactly the same region as it is today.
$BTC traded around $66K, then dropped roughly 12% to $58K, setting new cycle lows.
The one exception was the previous meeting in May, when $BTC produced the opposite reaction and rallied roughly 5%.
So another bearish reaction is not necessarily guaranteed. We have already seen this pattern fail once during the current bear market.
But 8 out of 9 is still not a statistic I am interested in betting against.
If the same reaction plays out again, we’re likely to see a key test of the range lows.
I’m personally watching whether $61K can hold as support.
That level is the gatekeeper between another pullback inside the current range and a potential flush to new lows.
$BTC #DailyOrbit $ETH 's relative move today warrants a closer look. At roughly three times BTC's 24-hour gain, with the Iran strike pause pulling risk appetite back into markets, the outperformance looks positioning-driven rather than narrative-driven. Rotation into ETH ahead of broader alt momentum is a known pattern; whether this is that setup or just a one-session catch-up is still unclear.
The macro backdrop adds friction. Jobless claims dropping gives the Fed less reason to move quickly on cuts, keeping real rates elevated and limiting the liquidity tailwind crypto needs to sustain a rally. Google and Tesla earnings this week matter more than most traders expect; a growth miss there could reprice the whole risk-on move. I'd want more confirmation before treating this bounce as structural.
Just my read, not advice.
#DailyOrbit Forma Chain shuts down and reverts Ethereum $ETH—opportunities for these four types of track coins have arrived
Forma Chain, a modular application chain built on Celestia + Astrya, announced its shutdown. All core assets were migrated back to Ethereum. Core events will have layered impacts on the modular track, NFT track, and emerging application chain-related tokens. We categorize them by the strength of impact:
1. Direct pressure: Small and medium-sized modular DA layers & dependent application chain tokens
1. Celestia is a small and medium-sized dependent application chain token
Celestia once spawned a large number of L3 application chains built by following trends through its "modular data availability layer" narrative. The collapse of Forma will re-question the market: whether small application chains that simply ride on Celestia's architecture without a real ecosystem have long-term value.
Those niche L3 tokens developed solely on Celestia and focused solely on NFTs and art will face capital flight flights, and the market fears they will become the next projects to shut down and relocate.
2. Astria ecosystem native token
Forma is a representative implementation case of the Atria ecosystem. If the project directly terminates operations, it will weaken Astria's narrative in the app chain scaling track, suppress token speculation in the short term, and temporarily delay capital investment in new projects in the Astria ecosystem.
2. Indirect Weakness: Independent niche public chain coins focused on NFT narratives
Many niche sidechains and self-built L2 public chains originally had the core selling point of "lower NFT minting fees" to attract Ethereum art NFT users.
Now, Forma is moving the entire set of NFT assets back to Ethereum, leading users to consensus that niche chain NFTs could lose liquidity completely at any time if the public chain collapses.
Therefore, the following two types of coins will continue to be under pressure:
- Non-mainstream independent public chain tokens focused on NFT trading and digital collectibles
- Layer 2 network tokens focused on low-cost mint NFTs, but with sluggish daily activity and weak team cash flow
These coins will drain resources from NFT project teams, and new projects will no longer choose to issue collectibles on niche chains.
3. Positive news: Core tokens in the Ethereum ecosystem
Safe-haven capital clustering will tilt toward Ethereum's native assets:
1. Ethereum $ETH
For more small chain projects, the optimal solution when facing survival crises is to migrate back to Ethereum, continuously strengthening Ethereum's position as the asset's "final destination" and solidifying Ethereum's value foundation over the long term.
2. Ethereum NFT infrastructure tokens
OpenSea-related ecosystem tokens, Ethereum NFT confirmations, and royalty tool tokens will benefit. As more NFT collectibles migrate, demand for on-chain transactions and rights confirmations will increase.
3. Ethereum's official flagship L2 token
After users abandon the niche modular L3, scaling demand will concentrate on mature Ethereum Layer 2 networks, and leading L2 tokens will receive more ecosystem traffic.
4. Valuation cooling: Altcoins riding the modular concept with air coins
The previous bull market's batch of fake tokens, which only packaged concepts of "modularization, sharding, and application chains," without actual products or NFT/DeFi users, will face valuation bubbles bursting.
Investors will be more cautious about distinguishing between projects that truly build underlying modular infrastructure and those that simply shell and exploit hot topics by issuing coins to reap the rewards. These air coins will continue to be abandoned by the market.
Supplementary objective summary
This incident will not completely destroy the entire modular sector; it will only eliminate small and medium-sized application chains that lack cash flow and rely on narrative to survive. In the future, resources in the modular track will only concentrate on leading infrastructure like Celestia and the Ethereum ecosystem, making industry polarization increasingly apparent.
⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is for industry objective analysis only and does not constitute any buy or sell investment advice. Please do not participate in cryptocurrency related trading speculation.Today's Core Judgment: Today is Monday, and US stocks will resume trading tonight. There is no new spot closing data for SPCX; the latest price remains at $115.07 on July 24; the real new risk comes from the Middle East shipping situation. The U.S. and Iran have paused their attacks for two consecutive days, leaving room for negotiations, but Hormuz's traffic remains at a three-week low, and alternative export routes in the Red Sea are also under threat. This creates a contradictory environment: diplomatic ceasefire expectations favor a rebound in risk assets, but actual shipping and energy supplies have yet to recover, and any breakdown in negotiations could cause sharp volatility again in oil prices, tech stocks, SPCX, and cryptocurrencies. ⸻ I. Key News 1. SPCX: Market enters the waiting phase before earnings reports and unlocks. Confirmed facts $SPCX closed at $115.07 in the most recent trading day, with an intraday range of $110.25–$118.10. It is still about 14.8% below the issue price of $135, and has drawn nearly half from its post-listing high. Approximately 911.5 million shares will gradually gain trading qualifications, but obtaining sale qualifications does not mean the relevant shareholders will immediately reduce their holdings. SpaceX is expected to announce its first quarterly results after listing on August 4; Subsequently, about 911.5 million shares may qualify for trading. At recent prices, this batch of potential unlocked shares is worth over 1,000On July 24, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice numbered 2026 No. 21, effective that day. Assets placed in offshore trusts by Chinese people will now be subject to tax. Over the past twenty years, placing assets in a Cayman or BVI family trust has been a standard move for Chinese tycoons: putting equity in, no tax on appreciation, no tax on dividends, and no tax on passing on to children. China's announcement on offshore trust personal income tax has broken the unspoken rules of this wealthy circle. The rules themselves are not complicated, mainly taxed at three times: Establishment: At the moment the property is placed in the trust, 20% is paid at the market price minus the cost—at this time, the property hasn't been sold, the money hasn't arrived, and taxes must be paid first. Sustainability: From then on, the trust earns annually, regardless of whether it is distributed to the settlor, is paid at 20% annually. Management and attorney fees cannot be deducted, and losses cannot be offset. Termination: When the trust is terminated, the settlor changes nationality, or passes away, a final liquidation is conducted based on the market value at that time. Looking at the tax rate alone, twenty percent is considered moderate. In the United States, trusts pay up to 37%, while in Japan, the tax on trust beneficiary rights is as high as 55%. The weight of this announcement does not lie in the tax rate; it comes in two places: first, the timing of tax collection is moved forward before the value is realized. Second, old debts need to be restored—those deposited after 2023 will be taxed in retroactive installments; money earned by the trust before 2025 will be bundled and paid within ninety days. Late fees will not be charged now, and fees will be calculated separately if overdue. There is now a lot of information circulating online about wealthy individuals paying taxes, so we will follow the State Taxation Administration's guidelinesHehe 😁, thanks to the staff for their recognition—the topic direction was inspired by the staff's templates, and while farming data, I noticed something: the queue exit queue went from 2.67 million ETH backlog straight to zero. This twist was too extreme. At the time, I felt something was off, so I dug down. At the entry point, nearly 2.5 million coins were lined up. So many were coming in and out, which was very unusual.
While writing, I thought of making the technically technical thing of "validator queues" understandable to everyone. Finally, he used the comparison of "a network no one goes to vs. a threshold many people want to enter," translating the data into emotions. Vitalik's proposal and ETF inflows were added later, to make the logic more complete—no one exited, queued up to enter, institutions were buying, money was shrinking, and all directions pointed to the same conclusion.
What I most want to say is actually one thing: on-chain behavior reveals true expectations earlier than candlesticks. Exiting to zero doesn't mean no one wants to sell; it just means long-term funds feel it's not worth selling now. Many people's first reaction when seeing Ondo Chain is: Will there be an airdrop? Can ONDO be staking? Can ordinary users run nodes? However, as of July 2026, the Ondo Chain mainnet has not officially launched, and specific applications, parameters, and participation rules may still be adjusted. At this stage, what is more suitable for discussion is not specific operations, but what entry points it might provide in the future, and what risks each entry point carries. 1. What is Ondo Chain's positioning? Ondo Chain is a public PoS Layer 1 aimed at institutional-level RWA. It is not simply copying meme, NFT, and blockchain game ecosystems on ordinary public blockchains, but aims to provide a more dedicated environment for issuance, trading, collateralization, and settlement of tokenized stocks, US Treasuries, funds, and other real financial assets. It plans to adopt a "network open, validators permissioned" model. In principle, regular users and developers can use the web or deploy applications, but validators are expected to be mainly involved by organizations that meet requirements and are subject to ongoing supervision. This means that a more realistic entry point for ordinary users to participate is through the network and applications, rather than directly running validator nodes. The official plan also includes price data, proof of reserves, cross-chain communication, and compliance tools. Simply put, Ondo Chain aims to solve not just "issuing assets as tokens," but also whether the price is trustworthy, whether the asset is sufficient, whether the issuer can set holding and transfer qualifications at the contract layer, and more