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#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
For a long time, the global DRAM market has been monopolized by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with these three companies together holding over 90% of the market share and controlling pricing power and advanced technology. With Changxin Technology listing on the STAR Market, the global storage landscape has entered a key shift, shifting the market from a "three-way standoff" to a four-way competition.
The funds raised from this IPO will support Changxin's capacity expansion, process iteration, and high-end memory R&D, continuously releasing production capacity and solidifying its position as the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer. As the only domestic IDM company to achieve large-scale mass production of DRAM, Changxin fills gaps in its domestic supply chain, weakens overseas suppliers' monopoly, and provides domestic cloud computing and consumer electronics companies with stable domestic options, reducing supply disruption risks caused by geopolitical environments.
On the competitive front, Changxin leverages DDR5 and LPDDR5 products to capture the general-purpose storage market, filling the market space left by overseas giants shifting to the high-end HBM track, and curbing the oligopoly's ability to coordinate price control. However, the challenges are equally prominent: in advanced processes and AI core HBM products, Changxin still has a significant generation gap compared to international leaders; The storage industry is highly cyclical, and overseas giants may squeeze new entrants through capacity expansion and price wars.
In the long run, Changxin's listing does not mean a short-term disruption of the existing landscape, but it represents China's official and deep participation in the global storage landscape, promoting diversification of the global storage supply chain, and opening up long-term space for the growth of the domestic semiconductor industry chain. $ESPORTS The regular gainers on the gainers list in the past two days have already been halved by more than 50%.
Originally, I didn't want to open any more deals over the weekend and just spent it peacefully. Unable to resist the brothers' itch to get hands, they insisted on seeing if there were any knockoffs to do, treating it as a lucky bet, but I wanted something with a higher probability. I checked $BANK$ake but these two chips were too similar and showed no signs of selling. Instead, I saw that esports had already broken above resistance above 0.06788, so I waited for on-chain addresses to move before bringing the brothers in.
This wave seized the opportunity of on-chain address movements, opening at the highest point and triggering a cliff-like waterfall drop. Those still holding short positions don't need to panic and hold onto it. Many whales have already sold off, so retail investors won't be allowed to take in soon. $BTC The cryptocurrency market this week is expected to face many short-term price fluctuations as more than $636.4 million worth of tokens are officially unlocked (Token Unlocks).
The focus of attention will be on 3 major projects: Sui (SUI), EigenCloud (EIGEN) and Kamino (KMNO).
Details of Notable Token Unlock Schedules
1. Sui (SUI) – Unlocked on 01/08
The Sui project will issue 13.72 million SUI (worth about $9.91 million, equivalent to 0.34% of the circulating supply). This amount of tokens is specifically allocated to:
• Investors Monday Market Update: $BTC & $ETH Strategy Last week’s plan worked. We faded the bounces. BTC tagged ∼67,000 and ETH ∼1,960, then both dropped to 63,600 and 1,840. Riding that trend was the play. About this weekend’s bounce — reversal? I don’t see it. Markets priced in US-Iran escalation and an oil/inflation spike. By Friday that fear faded, so we got a sentiment relief rally. Nothing changed fundamentally. What’s actually happening: ETF outflows are still on. Institutions aren’t buying yet. With all companies competing for RWA market share, which chain is the biggest winner?
RWA assets can be simply divided into:
- Distributed (distribution): Truly issued on-chain, allowing investors to hold and transfer funds using their own wallets.
-Represented: Assets are off-chain, only the records are written on-chain, and cannot circulate on-chain.
If ranked by distributed assets, Ethereum Chain leads $ETH $15.5B, BNB Chain $BNB $5.2B drops to one-third, and the third to tenth places are at $3~0.4B, with the top two together accounting for over 60% of the top ten.
🔵 Among them, Ethereum is the only token with both large institutional products and retail commodity tokens, such as BlackRock's BUIDL fund (1 billion), JPMorgan's JLTXX fund (810 million), and the gold token PAXG (1.8 billion), which is available to regular retail investors.
🟡BNB Chain is the only chain in the top ten to exceed 5 billion in scale, 100% distributed in scale. It hit a record high of 5.2 billion in July, up 32% month-on-month, indicating high value, but about 4.7 billion of that is tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds, accounting for 90%, indicating a highly concentrated asset class.
🔴 Looking at Avalanche $AVAX, which has a very high proportion of gray, the distribution type alone is $1.91B (ranked 5th), while the representational type surges by $11.41B to a total of $13.32B (ranked 2nd in this chart). Representational accounts for 85.6%, and 97% of representational types come from a single project. The distribution type mainly consists of institutional products, with the largest being BlackRock's BUIDL (about $900 million), while the rest are mostly private funds, with only single-digit holders. Notably, distribution sales rose from $370 million in Q1 2026 to $1.91 billion in July, a monthly increase of 60.47%.
➡️ In summary, Ethereum currently leads RWA development by a wide margin, mainly benefiting from stablecoin volume and smart contract maturity. Tokenized fund subscriptions and redemptions are settled with stablecoins, so issuers consider whether investors have sufficient stablecoin depth when redempting. Since Ethereum's launch in 2015 has never experienced a chain break, this is the risk issue institutions prioritize.
Another notable point is that the RWA market share on Ethereum fell from 58.4% in February to 47.9% in July, a decrease of 10.5 percentage points in half a year. The capital trends are clear: BNB Chain 12.1%, Solana 9.8% (its RWA holders surpassed Ethereum for the first time in mid-2026), and BUIDL increased by $436 million in Avalanche in a single week. Ethereum Chain's advantage comes mostly from its early first-mover advantage. Breaking it down, none of these are the optimal choices. Ultimately, it falls behind Avalanche, costs lag behind Solana and L2, and throughput lags behind most new chains. As long as these competitors run for an extra year and chain operations remain stable without issues, the gap narrows slightly.$SOL rebounded from $73 to $76.3, but large orders and retail investors taking in formed a chip divergence, with on-chain leveraged bulls heavily concentrating and smoothing out liquidity safety cushions, putting the market in a structurally fragile period.
In the past five sessions, large orders saw net outflows exceeding 40,000 coins, indicating that main funds are using the rebound to extract liquidity; Small orders keeping the three-hour total account positive and boosting retail investors' chip concentration.
The on-chain spot leverage long-short ratio surged to 7.9 times, an increase of nearly 40% compared to yesterday. Coupled with the continued decline in total borrowed coins, this indicates that a small number of leading leveraged funds are making extremely concentrated one-way bets. At the same time, over 60% of active sell orders in derivatives contracts remain at a positive funding rate, with bulls continuously paying premiums to shorts, increasing the burden on positions for multiple parties.
In terms of driver priority, large orders with net outflows and active selling pressure are in the top tier, determining short-term upward resistance; The concentrated positions of spot leveraged long positions are in the second tier, becoming the main trigger for downward liquidation.
The upward scenario requires that the proportion of active sales drops below 50%, and the net outflow of large orders turns positive. If large orders stop falling and cover the price and break through the $76.3 resistance level, the funding cost for long positions will be absorbed, temporarily removing liquidation risk. This script fails as a signal that the volume of large orders continues to expand.
The downside scenario triggers a large order with sustained selling and market liquidity unable to keep up. If the spot price breaks through the $73 support, the concentrated leverage corresponding to the 7.9x long-short ratio will be forced to trigger cascading liquidations, triggering a stampede of pins. This scenario failed signaling a sudden sharp rebound in total borrowed coins.
In the next 24 hours, the key focus is on whether the net outflow of large orders has stopped bleeding, and whether the spot leveraged long-short ratio can fall back to a reasonable range.
#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? #AFX跨链桥被盗2415万USDC #贝莱德等九机构组建安全联盟Today's top five gainers have changed: DIA, ON, BTW, AKE, TAG. It looks like they've risen thirty to forty percent, but the money behind them is completely different.
DIA is currently up 38.5%, with a turnover of 176 million USD. OI has increased from 3.2 million to 5.61 million USD, with both price and position size increasing together. It just released DIA ZK a few days ago, and after the news spread, funds reignited today. The DIA ZK rate just turned positive from negative territory, and the gap between long and short positions among large players is close to a 50-50 split. Among the five coins, I am most optimistic about DIA's continuity. There has been some selling around 0.20, but this wave has not yet pushed the bulls into a one-sided trend.
ON rose 36.6%, with a turnover of only 25.6 million USD, and OI increased from 4.66 million to 6.44 million. About 63% of major players' positions are in the long position. It just unlocked 24.6 million tokens on July 24, and after increased supply, the price actually rose, indicating that the unlocked tokens have been temporarily eaten up by the market. ON unlocking information: This type of trend tends to keep pushing, but the bulls are already crowded, and with every subsequent rally, someone will cash out.
BTW rose 34.5%, with open interest rising from 9.45 million to 14.3 million, with new positions even faster than ON. The problem is that the fee rate has already risen to 0.065%, with about 63% of whales being overweight, and in recent hours, active selling volume has slightly exceeded buying volume. Currently, BTW is pushing upward through new long positions, with continuous resistance near 0.10. My view is cautious; the gains are still ongoing, but internal fluctuations have already begun to loosen.
AKE was the craziest today, plunging from 0.0036 to 0.0069, then falling back to 0.0042, with a 24-hour turnover of 437 million USD. During the rise, OI actually dropped from 47.7 million to 31.8 million, with a large number of positions being wiped out; The rate remains negative, with major players still holding a bearish margin of 53%. It had already multiplied several times in the previous seven days, and today's long upper shadow looks more like a momentary acceleration brought by short liquidation. AKE Recent Market Background: Among the five coins, AKE has made money the fastest and has the most severe drawdowns. I wouldn't treat it as a stable rise.
TAG rose 26.3%, with a turnover of only 8 million USD, OI rising to 11.05 million, about 63% of whales slightly higher, and the fee rate also reached 0.053%. A few days ago, TAG just completed its Alpha migration to spot trading, and today there is still some lingering warmth. TAG Migration Announcement: However, with trading volume below OI, the price is easily pushed by a few positions, making it the weakest among the five coins.
My ranking was clear: DIA first, ON second; By the way, it's already on the hot side; AKE is in a liquidation phase; TAG is boosted by small turnover. Today, all top five roses. Whether it can continue depends on whether OI is increasing, decreasing, or has all been pushed into the bulls.🔥 Changxin goes public, creating the largest market cap in the A-share market! The global storage "duopoly" becomes a "trio," will the AI computing power narrative be rewritten?
Changxin Technology debuted on the STAR Market today, with its market cap soaring directly to ¥3.31 trillion, topping the A-share market. Meanwhile, Anthropic concentrated its orders last week to Samsung and SK Hynix—on one side, the Korean duo securing orders, on the other, A-share funds voting for Changxin.
Here are the questions:
❶ Is the storage supply chain layout in place?
I have diversified allocations in Korean ADRs, tokenized US stocks, and A-share storage chips. After Changxin's listing, I will slightly increase my position in the A-share storage ETF but will not reduce my Korean stock holdings—short term, Changxin is "valuation-driven first," and performance ramp-up still needs time.
❷ Can the three-player structure hold steady?
With AI storage demand exploding, HBM and DDR5 are in short supply, so the three companies can share the market. But the most stable position, in my view, is SK Hynix—leading in HBM technology and most deeply tied to NVIDIA. Changxin is catching up quickly in DRAM capacity but still lags in high-end process technology.
❸ Is "domestic substitution" materializing or just a valuation bubble?
Changxin is indeed the true leader in domestic storage, with substantial progress in capacity ramp-up and yield improvement. But a ¥3.31 trillion market cap already exceeds the global storage leader Micron (about ¥1.2 trillion RMB)—this is clearly a "domestic substitution" narrative premium, and the fundamentals currently do not support this valuation.
💡 My judgment: Long-term optimistic about the rise of Chinese storage, but short-term valuation is high; wait for a pullback before heavy positions. Continue holding Korean stocks; AI storage demand is large enough, and all three parties have opportunities.
#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 The Trump family's digital currency revenue exploded, but the real interesting thing is—regulation actually got stuck because of it.
Guess what signals are hidden beneath this surface-level "good news"?
Just saw Trump's 2025 financial report, with cryptocurrency revenue exceeding $1.4 billion, nine times last year's figure. Of this, $TRUMP contributed 635 million, and World Liberty Financial took 770 million. It looks like a lavish personal wealth celebration.
Don't just focus on the numbers to get happy. What really stopped me was another thing: on the Senate side, the CLARITY Act couldn't be pushed forward. The Democrats say a president who made 1 billion in crypto controls the currency—how can you trust that? Republicans were also embarrassed, saying the bill shouldn't be written around one person. Although the current draft prohibits current officials from issuing new currency, the family project cannot be controlled—the moral loophole is as thin as paper.
This is actually a classic cross-market linkage signal: political and personal interests are entangled, freezing the pace of crypto policy advancement. The market is not trading this risk at the moment, because everyone is watching price movements. But once the bill is completely shelved, regulatory uncertainty will spread again, institutional funds will hesitate, and risk appetite will quietly contract.
- Bullish path: Trump's wealth story will attract more retail investors to follow suit, and short-term sentiment can still hold up.
- Bearish risk: Political deadlock narrows compliance paths, and once negative news emerges (such as escalating investigations), the market quickly rates expectations of a "regulatory winter."
My feeling is that this current wave of excitement is more like a local emotional pulse driven by "personal narratives" rather than a structural inflow of funds. Real capital preferences are actually just waiting—they're waiting for regulation to take effect, not for how much one person can earn.
Don't be blinded by the numbers; keep an eye on the direction of the bill.
Disclaimer: Personal observation and does not constitute trading advice. $BTC $TRUMP #CLARITYAct #CryptoPolicyOil prices have fallen, US stock futures have rebounded—can the crypto world breathe a sigh of relief today?
There was some external positive news today: after the US-Iran conflict paused, oil prices fell significantly, and US stock futures rebounded.
This is good news for the crypto world in the short term.
Because the market feared most recently was that oil prices would keep surging, US Treasury yields would be suppressed, and risk assets would shrink along with them.
But I won't go long just because of this.
The reason is simple: this week also includes the Federal Reserve, GDP, PCE, and a host of tech earnings reports. The real major fluctuations may be yet to come.
My judgment today:
BTC doesn't break down; let's first look at a recovery.
If ETH is stronger, the altcoins have a chance.
But before the Fed takes office, it's not the time to get too carried away.
Do you think this is the start of a rebound, or a breather before the FOMC?Want to ask Gate: Are the facts as you describe?
The 100,000 USDT and 800,000 ALD paid by our side first flowed into third-party wallets, after which Gate Alpha automatically scraped ALD tokens. The platform refused to disclose the personnel and process for this listing, and the assets were then transferred from third-party wallets to Gate Alpha for airdrop.
All transfer hashes are traceable, and evidence is publicly available for verification.
After the project completed payment and successfully went live for trading, the platform unilaterally claimed that the communication and liaison personnel were external scammers.
The project ultimately successfully listed on Gate Exchange. This explanation alone cannot dispel all doubts; this matter has seriously damaged Gate's market credibility. We demand a transparent and complete official response.Babylon's TBV vault went live, along with access to Aave lending yields. So, how many BTC friends are actually suitable to participate?
1. First, understand the total annual return: OKB's annual return from cooperation with Babylon is 0.68%; The loan yield on Aave is 0.25%. That means the combined annual growth is 0.93%. (No wonder BTC's DeFi development is so poor—mainly because the returns are so weak. This is already the highest in the entire industry.)
2. However, staking requires gas (Gas). If you participate on the mainnet, you need to spend two gas cycles: one staking and one unstake. Because Bitcoin gas is very expensive, basically starting at 20 sat/vb, which means the total gas starts at about 4uU.
3. Based on the current total of 0.93% of the year, if we stake 1 BTC, the annual profit is 624 U, which is 1.7 U per day. It takes 2.35 days to stake to earn back gas. If you have 0.1 BTC, it takes 23.5 days to earn it back. So strictly speaking, this is still a game for the big players, not suitable for regular users.
4. Of course, staking directly through OKX does not require gas fees. But the essence hasn't changed: if you stake 0.1 BTC, the daily interest is 0.17u, which is very low.
5. So if you ask whether $BABY will surge because of Babylon's TBV trustless vault testnet launch, or whether it will surge due to cooperation with lending protocols like Aave V4, I can only say: very low. Last year, the project team backed many community users, which had a poor reputation, and retail investors holding BTC were reluctant to stake their money.A new week has begun, and this week is destined to be anything but peaceful.
Let's start with geopolitical issues. The US and Iran have exercised mutual restraint and temporarily suspended armistices, reopening negotiation windows. Brent crude oil has fallen below $90, at least allowing risk markets to breathe a sigh of relief this week. The decline in oil prices and cooling of safe-haven sentiment are positive for stocks and crypto assets.
There was a major move on the A-share market today: Hefei Changxin Technology was officially listed. Changxin is a leading domestic DRAM company and one of the largest IPOs in STAR Market history, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan and a listing valuation of about 580 billion yuan. Its listing directly puts "domestic storage independent control" in the spotlight and will prompt the market to reassess the value of the entire storage industry chain.
The real highlight is Wednesday. SK Hynix released its Q2 financial report. In my view, the importance of this report is no less than that of Nvidia. It is one of the core indicators of this AI market—HBM orders, gross margin, and guidance for the second half of the year—which can almost determine the market's confidence in AI storage demand. If the earnings report is good, the entire storage sector and the AI chain will experience sentiment; If the report is average, short-term fluctuations are inevitable.
On Thursday, two major events collided on the same day: the US core PCE data and the Federal Reserve's FOMC rate decision.
PCE tells the market what is really going on with inflation. If the core PCE monthly rate is higher than expected, the market will further bet on sustaining high interest rates longer, with U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening, potentially putting pressure on tech stocks, Bitcoin, and gold; If it falls short of expectations, rising expectations of improved liquidity will be clear positive for AI tech stocks and crypto assets.
The FOMC directly tells you what the Fed is preparing to do. The interest rate decision, dot plot, and statement wording will set the tone for next week and even the next quarter.
After the U.S. market closed on the same day, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and ARM are also set to release their Q2 2026 earnings reports. Along with SK Hynix, these companies have almost all the key players in the global AI industry chain. Their performance and guidance will jointly determine the direction of AI tech stocks and risk assets for the coming quarter.
After this week ends, the market will get more clues about the third and fourth quarters. Looking back then, the outline of the risk market will become much clearer $NVDA $SKHYNIX Strange, since Dugospay and Coinbase support depositing with U, why can't you deposit directly with U from OKX/Binance, and instead have to go through a wallet transfer? It turns out that from Dugospay and Coinbase's perspective, exchanges like OKX/Binance are considered less secure, so a wallet transfer is required.
The most commonly used wallet is the MetaMask Fox wallet,
MetaMask is great! There's also a MetaMask Mastercard that can be linked to Google Pay...In the first half of the year$BTC fell from $90,000 all the way down to below $60,000, and bull market faith was shattered. By July, the market finally showed some change.
BTC has returned to $65,000, with spot ETFs cumulatively net inflows of about $699 million in July, with 11 out of 15 trading days recording inflows. Funds were still retreating sharply in June, and in July they started buying back. Big money is clear about the $60,000 area: this price can be reallocated.
Macro is also helping. After U.S. inflation cooled, market concerns about short-term rate hikes diminished, and BTC surged directly to around $64,800 that day. However, there's no need to expect rate cuts for now. The Fed's investigation path leans toward maintaining rates until 2027, and the July meeting is highly likely to remain unchanged.
So my understanding of this round of rally is straightforward: ETF funds are flowing back, interest rate hike concerns are easing, long-term funds are taking on the $60,000 mark, and BTC is slowly climbing back to $65,000.
Next, let's look at $68,000. This is the most pressing pressure to address during the July rebound; only after winning it can they qualify to negotiate between $72,000 and $75,000. My target for the second half of the year is temporarily around $75,000, provided ETFs continue to flow in and BTC cannot fall below $62,000.
The most common mistake the market makes now is not daring to buy at $60,000, then chasing after it when it rises to $70,000. July has already put the signals on the table: retail investors are still skeptical, and big funds have started buying again.The market continues to price regulatory expectations! The probability of the CLARITY Act being implemented within the year continues to be lowered
Industry institutions have recently assessed that the U.S. Senate has a busy schedule, making it difficult to complete the final vote before the August recess, and it is highly likely to be postponed to the September election cycle.
During the election phase, party rivalry intensifies, the pace of bill advancement is likely to slow, and the likelihood of full implementation by 2026 is reduced.
Market Impact: Previously, some long funds in the market bet on clear regulatory benefits, expecting a delay to continue suppressing bullish sentiment; In the short term, it is difficult for a major rally driven by regulatory news to occur. $BTC $SENT – I'm still looking up at 4H.
My main scenario is continued growth.
The first target is 0.01302.
Next, I look at 0.01358 and 0.01440, if the momentum continues.
I would not catch up with the price.
The ideal entry for me is a pullback to the 0.01262-0.01252 zone with a bullish reaction.
Bullish engulfing, a strong pin bar, or a reversal on a lower timeframe can provide confirmation.
It will be especially interesting to see sweep below 0.01252 with a quick return above the level.
But if the price confidently fixes below 0.01252, my bullish scenario will be canceled.
As long as the key support holds, I continue to look for a long one. ❓ 美股的钱到底去了哪里，为什么指数之间像在交易两个不同的市场？ 截至北京时间2026年7月27日16:48，美股尚未开盘，最近交易日留下了一张非常明显的“搬家清单”。 📦 搬出区域：高波动科技股 QQQ：684.23美元，-1.12% NVDA：206.84美元，-0.92% META：595.19美元，-1.80% TSLA：313.03美元，-2.08% 纳指承压，几只高波动科技龙头同时走弱。资金不是彻底离开市场，而是在减少对高估值、高波动方向的集中暴露。 🏠 搬入区域：传统大盘与少数强者 DIA：518.76美元，+0.48% SPY：738.93美元，+0.10% AAPL：333.02美元，+3.53% MSFT：381.70美元，+0.03% DIA比QQQ多涨约1.60个百分点，苹果与特斯拉之间的单日表现差距更达到5.61个百分点。 这不是普通分化，而是资金在明确表达态度： 可以继续留在美股，但不愿意给所有科技股同样的估值。 🔑 下个交易日的“门禁密码” QQQ：690美元 重新站上690美元，说明科技资金可能回流；继续被压在下方，资金搬家还没结束。 苹果：335The market is mostly green, but the liquidity structure is telling a more differentiated story 👀
One of the biggest mistakes many traders make is seeing a few bullish candles and assuming the entire market is about to explode. Don’t rush to chase the rally; look deeper.
Prices are indeed rising, but funds are not flowing evenly across all sectors. Liquidity is highly concentrated in a few assets, while many altcoins are still struggling, with buying interest failing to spread effectively. Open interest has cooled down, but trading volume remains healthy, indicating that market participants have become more selective and rational, no longer blindly chasing every pump.
Assets with clearly concentrated current funds: $JELLYJELLY, $OPG, $SLX, $LAB, $BSB, $ALLO, $CHIP, $MEME, $EDEN, $HUMA, $ZKP, $METIS
Phase market leaders: $BTC as the core liquidity magnet, $ETH as the institutional favorite, $SOL as the high Beta Layer1 leader, $DATA with AI infrastructure narrative, $WLD with AI + digital identity, $HYPE as the risk sentiment barometer, $DOGE and $ZEC as key indicators of retail participation
Notably, the following assets show significantly limited participation: $BEAT, $EDGE, $COAI, $TRUMP, $RAVE, $SPACE, $SOPH, $IP, $AVNT, $ZAMA, $OFC, $PIEVERSE, $VIRTUAL, $ACU, $H, $MEGA
Key insight: Understanding where funds are not going is as important as knowing where they are going. Not every breakout is worth putting your real money into. Watch the liquidity flow, wait for confirmation, let the market validate the direction, then consider entering.
This is not financial advice; please be sure to do your own research. $BTC OrderFlow delivered
...we got the weekend bounce driven by the trapped shorts we had been tracking.
But unless spot buyers and new longs step in soon, the higher-probability outcome is a quick move back toward the lows!
Quick recap:
1 - Bullish absorption: At the start of the weekend, aggressive shorts opened into passive buyers who kept absorbing the selling. Despite the increase in short exposure, price failed to move lower.
2 - Sellers became trapped: Spot buyers gave price a small push higher, putting those shorts underwater. Even then, more sellers continued stepping in, and still failed to produce downside only "adding fuel to the fire".
3 - Short covering fueled the bounce continuation: Once shorts started closing their losing positions, they had to buy back at market. That created the predictable buying pressure we discussed and drove the move higher. At the same time, spot began distributing into that forced buying.
What comes next?
The fuel from trapped shorts now looks mostly exhausted. Spot is selling into the bounce, and we are not seeing meaningful intent from new longs. Without fresh spot demand or aggressive long positioning, there are few genuine buyers supporting the move. This bounce is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. Unless spot buyers and new longs step in soon, the higher-probability outcome is a quick move back toward the lows.Recently, the AI sector has experienced a valuation correction, with ten S&P 500 companies having pulled back more than 40% from their peak levels. This round of declines is merely the market revising the profit forecasts of some AI companies, and does not mean the overall long-term growth logic of AI has ended. The triggers for this round of correction fall into several points: First, the previous bubble and valuation have returned to rationality. Over the past two years, AI-themed stocks have surged across the board, with many listed companies' stock prices far outpacing their own earnings growth; As funds began to question whether AI investments could deliver returns, overvalued stocks were the first to be sold off by capital. Second, major tech companies have invested hundreds of billions to build AI computing power centers, with sustained high capital expenditures, making investors increasingly concerned about short-term cash flow pressure and significantly extending capital return cycles. Furthermore, the pace of AI application implementation is falling short of earlier market optimism, and enterprises' willingness for large-scale procurement is weak, causing stock prices of AI software, servers, and computing infrastructure companies to weaken together. Finally, the market capital style shifted significantly, with a large amount of money withdrawing from high-end AI growth stocks and shifting to low-valuation defensive sectors like finance and utilities for safe havens. However, the overall market remains resilient: the S&P 500 is still hovering around its all-time highs, with the entire index relying on leading tech giants providing support. Although core AI leaders like Nvidia and Microsoft have experienced increased market volatility, the market still recognizes the long-term upside potential of AI and does not bear the overall development of the sector. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $Let's talk about the trade:
Still mainly trading BTC, gold, crude oil, and some US stock trading stocks
The main market theme going forward will still revolve around the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and cuts (US Treasuries and inflation)
As I mentioned last time: the main theme is still rate cuts. Rate hikes are just lip service expectations, and when those expectations will materialize is unknown and may always be talked about.
Therefore, in summary:
The macro main theme is implicitly positive
But the market has been upward in twists and downs
Because the process will be repeatedly affected by the US-Iran situation and other reasons
The price has already firmly reached the 60,000 yuan mark
It is currently undergoing repeated oscillations, waiting to hold above the 65K-67K threshold
The next hurdle is between 71K and 73K
The next range is 76K-78K
Every hurdle may have its ups and downs
But the main direction remains unchanged
Buying on dips is the main theme, including this policy meeting window, next month's nonfarm payroll data, and CPI data. Every time you buy in a few times, the negative impact will likely be minor, but these are all opportunities to buy on dips
The near term is a good time for swing trading, so you can switch to swing strategies for trading
$BTC $XAU Friends, SK Hynix's trillion-yuan order can't hide the stock price hesitation. Before the earnings report, bulls and bears are waiting for direction. SK Hynix was near $1238.27 before the market opened, up 1.28% intraday, with a 24-hour fluctuation range of $1176.87 to $1257.14. However, since its 52-week high on June 25, the stock has fallen more than 40%, with a cumulative decline of about 30% since July—a truly devastating loss. The fundamentals are actually not bad. Last weekend, SK Group reached a long-term chip supply agreement worth $750 billion with NVIDIA and others; The Q2 financial report, to be released this Wednesday (July 29), shows market consensus expecting revenue of 84.1 trillion won and operating profit of 64.1 trillion won, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 600%. In July, South Korea's pension fund had a net purchase of 425.8 billion KRW in SK Hynix. But the stock price just wouldn't rise. The market is concerned that the $950 billion deal is more like an "industry vision" than an immediate and certain revenue; Morgan Stanley warned that storage pricing growth is peaking; Moreover, most of the previous AI positive news has already been priced in, so funds choose to "cash in" rather than chase the rally. Technically, MA5 (1228) and MA10 (1225) have been recovered, but MA20 (1298) and MA30 (1399) are still holding heavy resistance above. Whether the financial report can act as a catalyst will be a key short-term signal of market reversal. The above analysis and personal views are for reference only! $SKHY $XSKHY $BTC #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds variables SOL 76.3, four points bounced up from 73, looks decent, right?
But the flow of funds is interesting. Large orders saw a net outflow of over 40,000 yuan in the past five sessions, continuing to move outward. The three-hour total account is calculated positively because small orders are being received. Retail investors take over, big players sell—is this the same scenario again?
On-chain leverage is also ridiculous: spot leveraged long-short ratio is 7.9 times, and all those who borrowed money to go long suddenly came back, nearly 40% higher than yesterday. But the total amount of borrowed coins is still declining, indicating fewer borrowers, while those borrowing are all going long, with a high concentration.
On the contract side, more than 60% of the active sell orders are active, and the funding rate is still positive, with the bulls paying the bears.
So at this level, retail investors are buying, large orders are running, contracts are dumping, and only a group of leveraged bulls on the chain are holding on. The structure isn't very stable; let's see if they can hold out tonight.
#sol $SOLGridClimb gave me a direct reminder this time: having a product doesn't mean the token is worth watching. The game page and leaderboard are real, but after GCLB migrated to PumpSwap, a single non-liquid pool wallet held about 27.16%, with the pool holding only about $5,411; The post-migration window price fell by about 71.5%, with 265 sell trades, higher than 148 buys. Adding 500 paid promotions, I don't want to treat address growth as a natural need, so I first removed it from observation.
GCLB：DyFGNzidqg1CJtUNfXkLd9mQ5BsoxKUxiBHx54vDpump
Among the few left, I only put HBULL in a regular observation: the main pool is about $130,000, with 24-hour transactions around $1.18 million, but the creator holds 8.835%, six identified locked addresses totaling 15%, and the project's source tokens about 23.84%. The previous 2.5% that returned to the creator's wallet has not yet been re-locked.
HBULL：7V6Sk63y8Rr1MvcN5mYNp61wgFhy4EeQg5gUASk9pump
Next, let's look at three things: creators no longer add more, the 2.5% is re-locked or the use is given verifiable instructions, and staking program permissions are made public. If any project's source wallet experiences synchronized coin transfers or obvious liquidity loss, I will give up.
FAL and TAPBALL are still in the ultra-early stage: FAL burns have shown two consecutive slow growth, with zero transactions in the last hour; The proportion of TAPBALL creators rose to 3.911%, but there are still no verifiable on-chain records for game payments.
FAL：0xBD6E8d6Db9e330569eaaC4b1D92aC5648D51c7a6
TAPBALL：BnEcYQxC8p8vMLXFzi5PpnqdRjwnwc3F9XndoMU8pump
These are high-risk observations, not trade advice.📊 $XAUT Liquidation Overview
Liquidation Scale
· 1 hour: $49.11
· 4 hours: $82,000
· 12 hours: $95,800
· 24 hours: $96,200
Long and Short Distribution
Period Long Liquidation Short Liquidation Long Ratio
1h $0 $49.11 0%
4h $64,500 $17,500 78.7%
12h $64,900 $30,900 67.7%
24h $64,900 $31,300 67.5%
Long and Short Interpretation
Long liquidations overwhelm shorts across all periods (24h long ratio 67.5%), indicating a sustained one-sided downtrend. The 4-hour window is the harshest for longs, with a long ratio as high as 78.7%; although shorts had some liquidations in 12h and 24h, longs still dominate absolutely. The ultimate winner: shorts — price shows a continuous downtrend with longs repeatedly stopped out.
Time Distribution
· 1 hour accounts for 0.05% of 24 hours
· 4 hours accounts for 85.2% of 24 hours
· 12 hours accounts for 99.6% of 24 hours
Liquidations are extremely concentrated in the 12-hour period (nearly 100%), indicating the main down wave concentrated and basically completed within 12 hours; the 24-hour total is almost equal to 12 hours, with very limited increase in the latter 12 hours. Currently at the tail end of a short-dominated sustained decline, long positions have mostly cleared out, and short-term attention should be on volume contraction signals.
One-sentence Summary
$XAUT 24-hour long liquidations of $64,900 account for 67.5% of total, with the main down wave concentrated in 12 hours; shorts decisively win.
🔥 Market Indicator | July 27
Today's three hot topics point to the same theme: AI narrative entering a "validation season" — from the valuation frenzy of domestic storage, to the Fed's interest rate decision, to tech giants' earnings tests, the market is re-examining whether the high investment model in AI can deliver high returns.
📈 Changxin Technology IPO: 3.66 trillion market cap "domestic substitution" frenzy
On July 27, domestic DRAM leader Changxin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan/share, opening with a surge of 471.59%, and market cap briefly surpassing 3.66 trillion yuan, overtaking ICBC as the largest A-share market cap. IPO raised 66.6 billion yuan, the largest since STAR Market inception.
Changxin Technology is the world's fourth largest DRAM manufacturer, expected to net over 50 billion yuan in H1 2026, with global market share rising from 3% to 8%. Nomura Securities set a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of about 7.76 trillion yuan, roughly 30% higher than current SK Hynix.
However, controversy is huge: SK Hynix's quarterly revenue is already more than three times Changxin's half-year revenue; Changxin still lags behind US and Korean giants by about two generations and three years technologically. Whether the 3.66 trillion market cap marks a super cycle start or peak moment is sharply debated.
🏛️ Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday: rate hike expectations simmering
The biggest macro variable this week — the Fed will hold its meeting July 28-29. Economists almost unanimously expect no change (all 104 surveyed economists predict rates unchanged), but futures markets price a 36% chance of a hike.
The divergence stems from oil prices — Brent crude has surpassed $100/barrel, and ongoing US-Iran tensions push geopolitical risk premiums; combined with tariffs and massive AI spending, inflation pressures are rising again. This is Fed Chair Waller's second meeting; whether it will stage a "surprise hike" will be revealed early Thursday.
📊 Microsoft, Meta, Amazon earnings: AI "burn money" model tested
This week Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon release earnings, with market focus unified: can massive AI capital expenditures translate into real revenue?
Microsoft expects revenue around $87.4 billion; whether Azure growth can maintain about 40% is key. Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125-145 billion; Q2 earnings will test if AI spending erodes ad profits. Amazon AWS growth may exceed 30% for the first time since 2022, but concerns remain over negative free cash flow.
Google and Tesla previously sounded alarms with historic negative cash flow — AI is burning faster than expected. These three earnings reports will decide if the "AI narrative" can continue to support tech stock valuations.
💎 Summary
Three events outline the core market contradictions: Changxin Technology's 3.66 trillion market cap is an extreme pricing of "domestic substitution + AI demand"; the Fed's rate decision is a tense game over "whether inflation will return"; tech giants' earnings are the ultimate test of "whether AI spending can be profitable." When valuation frenzy, policy shifts, and earnings validation converge in the same week, the AI narrative is moving from "storytelling" to "answering the test." #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ Deposit stocks were still under pressure yesterday, but today they collectively turned positive before the market opened
The storage sector suddenly strengthened.
$SNDK
SK Hynix rose 6% in pre-market trading, SanDisk rose 5%, Seagate rose 3.9%, and Micron rose 3.6%.
Even Intel, Nvidia, and Broadcom have rebounded together.
This round of rally appears to be capital flowing back into semiconductors, but in essence, it's still the market retrading demand for AI infrastructure.
A few days ago, Intel's earnings exceeded expectations, yet its stock price still fell.
The reason is straightforward.
$ETH
The market is no longer satisfied with revenue growth and is now asking whether capital expenditures can convert into customers and orders, and whether orders can be converted into cash flow.
The same goes for storage stocks.
AI servers require storage products with higher capacity and faster speeds, and the long-term demand logic has not disappeared.
But previously, the sector's gains were too large, and as long as performance didn't continue to exceed expectations significantly, funds would first realize profits.
Today's collective rise before the market suggests that some pressure may have been released from the earlier pullback, but it cannot yet be directly defined as a new round of main gains.
The market will have two things to wait for next.
First, can AI data center orders continue to grow?
$SHIB
Second, can Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix truly turn demand into profit?
My SNDK long position currently has a floating profit of 15.12%, so I'm temporarily betting on the right direction.
But 50x leverage amplifies not only profits, but also every drawdown.
The storage sector is no shortage of stories now.
What is truly lacking is a performance answer that will allow funds to continue increasing their positions.
Whoever first proves that AI demand can be continuously met, the more funds will continue to flow in.
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#财报观察员: Can Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon stabilize the AI narrative? 美股盘面复盘：科技板块持续分化，存储芯片进入剧烈震荡周期
7月24日美股开盘三大指数走势分化，道指上涨0.17%，标普500小幅收涨0.07%，纳指微跌0.12%。盘面最大特征就是科技股强弱割裂，资金开始出现明显取舍。
部分大型科技股依旧保持韧性，甲骨文涨幅接近2%，AMD、微软上涨超1%；另一边高估值标的承压，美光科技下跌3%，SpaceX跌近2%，英伟达小幅回落0.26%，博通跌超1%，市场对于高位科技股估值的警惕情绪持续升温。
其中存储芯片板块波动最为惊心动魄，短短几个交易日走出剧烈过山车行情。
7月21日板块集体走强，闪迪、西部数据大涨接近9%，SK海力士、美光、希捷同步上涨约7%，存储股成为市场领涨主线。
行情仅隔一日就快速反转，7月22日板块迎来大幅回调，多家存储企业出现明显回撤；7月23日大盘整体走弱环境下，存储板块短暂逆势抵抗，SK海力士一度上涨4.8%；等到7月24日再度集体承压，闪迪、西部数据、希捷同步走低，SK海力士ADR大跌3.85%，AI云相关neocloud概念股也普遍下行。
回顾近几日大盘节奏不难看出市场风格变化：
7月21日三大指数全线上涨，存储板块领涨；
7月22日指数小幅调整，存储、AI芯片集体走弱，尾盘部分半导体标的跌幅收窄；
7月23日大盘大幅下挫，特斯拉、谷歌重挫，唯独存储板块走出逆势行情；
7月24日指数涨跌分化，存储板块再度重回调整。
整体来看，现阶段市场没有形成统一趋势，资金轮动速度加快。大型科技股内部出现分化，一部分标的依靠基本面支撑维持强势，高估值品种持续遭遇获利兑现。
而存储芯片板块是当下波动核心，资金博弈剧烈，大涨大跌切换速度极快，很难走出单边持续性行情，短线追涨风险偏高。后续需要持续观察板块能否重新凝聚资金共识，同时联动大盘情绪变化。
$SNDK $SKHYNIX 📊 MARKET ADVICE — MONDAY
The market rewards discipline, not emotions. Keep these rules in mind today:
• 🚫 Don’t chase pumps — wait for confirmation before entering.
• 🛡️ Protect your capital — always define your risk and use a stop-loss.
• ₿ Watch Bitcoin — BTC direction can heavily influence the wider crypto market.
• 🔎 Follow fundamentals — strong projects matter more than temporary hype.
• ⚠️ Respect volatility — when the market gets wild, reduce position size and avoid excessive leverage.
• 🧘 Stay patient — missing a trade is far better than forcing a bad one.
Rule of the Day:
Risk management comes before the perfect entry.
You don’t need to catch every move. You need to stay in the game long enough to catch the right ones. 📈
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Trading #RiskManagement #OKX #OrbitRecently, I've been paying special attention to $BTC's major option orders. Currently, all the whales' positions are suffering from severe unrealized losses, with 1-2 weeks left, and time is getting tighter.
If the underlying asset price of the purchased option remains unchanged for a day, the option is like ice bathed in sunlight. Just as ice accumulates more and more water, the time value of an option will also disappear as its expiration date approaches.
Personal experience: When choosing options contract durations, for short-term swing markets, prioritize 1-3 month mid-term contracts to balance liquidity and time loss speed, avoiding rapid premium consumption due to short-term sideways trading; For medium- to long-term catalysts, such as earnings cycles or implementation of industrial policies, 3-6 month long-term contracts can be chosen to allow ample market fermentation time and reduce holding pressure caused by short-term fluctuations. Try to avoid ultra-short-term contracts expiring within a week. Unless you anticipate a sharp single-day price swing, it's very easy to drop to zero during a sideways market.Concerns about escalating the war were still over the weekend, and on Monday, the market suddenly began a trading ceasefire.
After the U.S. paused its bombing of Iran, Iran signaled a pause in retaliatory actions. Brent crude oil once fell about 4.7%, falling back to around $92; Nasdaq futures rose about 1.3%, and S&P futures gained about 0.8%, as assets previously suppressed by geopolitical risks rebounded collectively.
BTC also climbed back above $65,000, currently around $65,109, with an intraday high of $65,598.
The logic behind this rebound is very straightforward:
Oil prices fell
→ Easing inflationary pressures
→ The probability of Fed rate hikes has decreased
→ U.S. Treasury and dollar pressures eased
→ Risk assets such as tech stocks and BTC rebounded
The market's expectation for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike has also fallen from about 37.4% to 33.7%.
But here, the bull market cannot be called back immediately.
Currently, it is only a temporary withdrawal of war premiums, but it does not mean the Middle East situation is completely resolved. Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities continue, and any new news of conflict could cause crude oil prices to rise again.
This week also includes the Federal Reserve meeting, US Q2 GDP, and earnings reports from several tech giants. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia will all undergo market inspections.
So today's rally feels more like a "risk-relief rebound."
What truly determines whether the rally can be sustained is not just a one-day drop in oil prices, but whether crude oil can stabilize below $100 and whether tech companies can prove that AI investment is truly profitable.
In short: $SHIB
The war pause has eased the grip on the market, but the real referee this week remains the Fed and tech earnings reports. BTC regaining $65,000 is only the first step; whether it can hold is what matters. $BTC $ETH #长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds another variable to the market. Changxin Technology was listed on the STAR Market today, and its market value surged to 3.31 trillion yuan, making it the largest stock by market cap on the A-share market. One storage chip company has outshone all of Moutai, all banks, all new energy vehicles—what does that mean? Previously, the global storage market was ruled by two players: Samsung and SK Hynix, Korea's Micron, and the US. South Korea is America's little brother, so essentially, the US is dominant. Now Changxin has arrived, China has officially entered the market, forming a three-way standoff—or rather, one against two, China fighting the US-Korea alliance Storage has skyrocketed in recent years. HBM prices nearly doubled, and Micron's gross margin reached 74%. Why? Because AI grabbed share, because capacity was locked down, because there was no competitor. Korea's two companies made money lying down, while America's Micron followed suit. Now it's different. Changxin has arrived. Changxin's listing isn't just a story about the capital market; it's China's capacity officially entering the global pricing system. In the past, no one stopped Korea from raising prices; now, if you dare to raise prices, Changxin dares to expand. China's best skill is turning a highly profitable industry into a bargain price. Like photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and storage, it's no exception So my judgment is simple: memory is at its highest price now. AI demand remains, but the supply side has changed. The three companies are fighting for market share, and no one is willing to give in. Price wars are inevitable. Changxin just went public, right at the most desperate time for expansion. Will Samsung just watch its share be eaten up? No, then lower prices to play. Micron follows or not, and it's out. If they do, profits collapse. It's a good day for storage BTC Returns to 65,000: A Real Rebound, or a "Liquidity Hunt" Amid Low Liquidity?
BTC broke through $65,000 over the weekend and early Monday session, putting considerable pressure on the bears. However, this rally triggered by the low liquidity window leans more toward a liquidity sweep targeting short chips. Whether the rally can fully evolve into a trend reversal depends on whether a volume breakout can be achieved at the strong resistance zone at $67,000–68,000.
1. Liquidity perspective: "Liquidation-style" rallies in low-depth environments
From weekend to Monday morning, it is a window period when traditional financial markets are closed and the CEX market is relatively weak. Against the backdrop of thin order listings, main funds only need to push prices up at relatively low costs.
Considering the 4-hour upward trendline, this rally is highly targeted:
Precise liquidation of short positions: Consume the exit and stop-loss chips accumulated earlier in the 64,000 - 65,000 range;
Creating FOMO sentiment: By creating "missing out" anxiety through consecutive bullish candles, it induces wait-and-see funds and retail investors to buy at high levels lacking confirmed volume.
2. Fundamentals and Macroeconomics: Who Is Providing the Bottom for 63,000 - 64,000?
Although the short-term rebound carries a liquidity game, the medium-term market is not lacking in fundamental support:
Macroeconomic resilience: The U.S. tech sector is performing steadily, with the market trading ahead of expectations for Fed rate cuts, and risk assets have not seen large-scale capital withdrawals;
Institutional Acceptance: Spot ETF capital flows remain healthy, with strong buying repeatedly appearing in the $63,000 - $64,000 range to support the bottom, indicating institutional funds maintaining this volatile upward structure.
3. Technical analysis: 67,000 - 68,000 determines the outcome of long and short trades
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour uptrend line remains solid, and after each pullback, the price can quickly rebound, indicating that bulls have temporarily taken the initiative in the short cycle.
Next, let's focus on two core scripts:
Scenario A (Volume Breakout): If a large energy bar breaks out and stabilizes in the 67,000–68,000 range, the upside will be fully opened, and the price is expected to directly challenge the $70,000 level.
Scenario B (False Breakout / Second Shakeout): If volume deviates significantly during the rally, it easily evolves into "liquidity exhaustion after short liquidation is completed," with the price likely to retest the 63,000 or even 62,000 area to complete the shakeout.
Before the market has given a clear direction, blindly chasing higher prices is a major taboo in trading. It is recommended to focus on the following ranges and manage stop-losses well:
Long Watch/Position Area: 63,500 - 64,000 (trend line overlapping zone with chip support)
Key Defense Level: 62,800 (Breaking below will result in 4-hour upward structural destruction; strict stop loss enforced)
First target above: 67,000 - 67,500 (strong resistance concentrated area; decide whether to stay or sell by observing volume increase)
#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
#长鑫科技上市, global storage competition adds new variables Today, Changxin Technology officially listed on the STAR Market, attracting widespread market attention. After going public, the company's market value once reached 3.66 trillion RMB, equivalent to about 539 billion USD, surpassing Intel and entering the ranks of the world's largest tech companies. This figure made me start to ponder: Why have more and more high-cap tech companies started to focus on listing in recent years? From Microsoft, Google, and Amazon in the internet era, to Tesla and CATL in the new energy era, and now to today's artificial intelligence, semiconductor, and robotics industries, each wave of technological revolution will give birth to new super companies. Capital markets are pricing in the future ahead of time. But at the same time, a question worth watching has arisen: when capital frantically embraces the future, is it discovering the future or overdrawing it? Changxin Technology's IPO may just be the beginning. In the coming years, fields such as AI, chips, and robotics may see the emergence of more super companies, and this wave of capital will reshape the global asset landscape. Throughout history, every technological revolution has produced a batch of super companies. And every concentrated listing of super companies also changes the structure of the capital market. In the 1990s, the Internet revolution rose. Companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are gradually becoming global giants. In the 2010s, the mobile internet and new energy revolution exploded. Companies like Tesla, CATL, and BYD have risen to prominence. Today, a new wave of industries is taking shape: artificial intelligence, semiconductors, robotics, commercial aerospace, and digital finance. A group of enterprises representing future productivity are entering the capital#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The situation in the Middle East remains tense. If the tension does not ease and energy prices stay relatively high, inflation will rise, making rate cuts unattainable. Not raising rates would be a good thing.
Personally, I believe this rate decision will keep rates unchanged—no hike, no cut. However, the subsequent statements should be closely watched to see what signals are sent—hawkish or dovish? That is the key point we need to focus on!
I will outline three possible scenarios for you:
1. If the decision is hawkish, the US dollar and US Treasury yields will strengthen, and growth stocks and crypto risk assets will pull back.
2. If the tone is moderate, the market could see a short-term rebound.
3. The most extreme case is a direct rate hike, which would likely trigger a sharp sell-off in high-risk assets (I expect this possibility to be very low, almost impossible). $BTC is approaching around $65,300 in August.
And here I would not ignore seasonality.
The median return for August has historically been -7.87%.
At the same time, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States slowed down noticeably:
$197.40M → $33.79M for the week ending July 24th.
The price is still holding, but the flow of capital already looks much weaker.
I wouldn't blindly buy growth just because $BTC is above $65K.
August may turn out to be much more difficult than most people now expect. BTC surges to 65,000, ETH approaches 2,000! The real market is just starting this week! Bitcoin has now climbed back above $65,000, and Ethereum has rebounded to around $1,960. From the market perspective, Ethereum has clearly outperformed Bitcoin this round, indicating that market risk appetite is recovering, and some funds have already started rotating from BTC to ETH. However, I believe what truly determines whether this rally can continue to rise is not technicals, but this week's global macro data. Why do I say this? This is because the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision this week, and the Bank of England will also announce its latest interest rate policy. Global markets are waiting for an answer: will dollar liquidity continue to tighten or start to become more accommodating? The biggest variable influencing the Fed's decision is inflation. Walsh has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed hopes to keep inflation stable around 2%. Until inflation truly returns to target, the Fed will not easily send easing signals. However, recently, the situation in the Middle East still faces the possibility of reversal. If the US-Iran conflict escalates again, international oil prices could rise again. Rising oil prices not only affect the energy sector, but also further push up transportation, manufacturing, and consumption costs, increasing the risk of inflation rising again in the future. If inflation rises again, the Fed may maintain high interest rates for longer, and may even continue to send hawkish signals. For Bitcoin, this means market liquidity is still being suppressed. So, what the market really focused on this week was not whether there would be a rate hike, but ratherAlarm sounding! 🚨 The earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon this Wednesday and Thursday are like three giant oil tankers simultaneously driving into a fire scene—Google has already been burned due to increased capital expenditures, and Tesla has recorded its worst weekly drop since 2022. Now, all firefighters are watching the capital expenditure guidance of these three cloud giants: will this AI investment blaze continue to spread, or is the fire finally cooling down? The growth rate of cloud computing and AI monetization capability are the only evidence to judge whether this "firefighting budget" is actually hitting the fire source.
You know? What firefighters fear most is not the open flame, but the hidden smoldering fire in the wall cracks—you think the fire is out, but it’s still burning quietly. The market’s hidden fire now is the evidence of AI monetization landing. OKX has tokenized these targets—Microsoft, Meta, Amazon—into products (XMSFT, XMETA, XAMZN), trading 24/7, with quotes anchored to the latest closing price and priced in USDT. This is equivalent to building an emergency escape route around the fire scene—the main fire is during the US stock market trading hours in the day, while the night session and weekends are the firefighters’ shift rest areas. But beware! The liquidity of these tokens is like the water pressure in the fire pool—it looks available, but can it hold up at critical moments? Google's surge in capital expenditure causing stock sell-offs indicates the market is reevaluating the firefighting efficiency of every drop of water (every penny).
Now in the candidate tags, I see "Google40BAnthropicBet"—Google’s $40 billion bet on Anthropic is like throwing a firebomb into the blaze. Also "FOMC:BTCBullsLoad"—the Federal Reserve’s temporary command center attitude is like a weather vane. But the most critical is still "NvidiaHBMIntact"—Nvidia’s HBM memory is intact, indicating computing power supply is still uninterrupted. If the three cloud giants continue to increase capital expenditures, it’s like connecting the fire hose to the oil pump—the more you fight the fire, the fiercer it gets.
🚒 Remember: in a fire scene, the first to fall are always the reckless rookies who rush in with water guns. The ones who truly survive are the veteran firefighters who have planned three escape routes. The market is now testing whether the firebreaks of these three cloud giants are effective—if their capital expenditure guidance shows cracks, then the firefighting alarm for the entire AI sector should sound again. #AIEarningsWatch Don't bring up anything else—ETH is a kind of interesting signal
Today, we're not talking about candlesticks or news events, but about one thing: Ethereum's 'gate' is changing direction.
The exit queue was cleared. You read that right—if you want to leave the validators list now, just click and you can leave, with zero queue. A month ago, this would have been unimaginable—back then, running would mean waiting in the cold wind for half a month.
But that's not the real interesting part. On the other side—2.48 million ETH are blocking the entry gate, queuing for staking to enter, estimated to be waiting 43 days.
On one side was a deserted exit, on the other was a crowded entrance. Pledged funds have shifted from "rushing out the door" to "rushing onboard," with net flows turning the tables.
Currently, 40.9 million ETH are locked across the network, accounting for 33.55% of the total, with nearly 900,000 validators guarding the market, at an annualized rate of 2.64%. Is the yield high? To be honest, it's not high. But don't forget, this is an "interest-generating underlying asset," not a local mining pool.
I've always felt that in terms of security and decentralization, ETH is the pinnacle of Layer 1 and nothing worth arguing about. The biggest suspense now is one — when will the U.S. legislation actually take effect?
Don't bring up technical bottlenecks with me—that's just old history. What is lacking now is not performance, but rules. Once the bill becomes clear, the issue of institutions will no longer be "willing to join," but "how to squeeze in." By then, on-chain operations will not only be DeFi, but real cash and physical businesses.
So, back to the title: Is ETH about to take off? I don't know how the price will move tomorrow, but I do know—the direction of the funds has already voted for you. The rest is waiting for the wind to come. Just as I brushed away the millennia-old dust from Sumerian clay slabs, the violent tremors of the bay's geological faults traveled from the tip of the Luoyang shovel to my palm—as soon as the black gold wars of the Persian Gulf subsided, the ancient ghosts of capital eagerly rose from the grave.
The "geo-easing" that has emerged in the strata today, if you look through the war history between the Roman Senate and the Parthian Empire two thousand years ago, is nothing more than another fragment of parchment photocopied with a modern typewriter. The US military pauses airstrikes, Omani envoys shuttle between Tehran, Iranian troops remain inactive, and the 75% probability of those betting on an agreement before August 31 is essentially no different from the copper coins scattered among the ruins of ancient Greek city-states betting on the outcome of the Colosseum. Today's new stories are tomorrow's unearthed artifacts.
Brent crude oil immediately plunged 6% to $91, while WTI crude broke through the $84 mark. This black asphalt, known as the lifeblood of modern industry, was used by the ancestors of Mesopotamian three thousand years ago to bond the Tower of Babel, and three thousand years later, it still controls the breathing rhythm of geopolitical empires. As soon as the smoke of war dissipates, the inflationary layers lifted by panic instantly collapse, releasing the liquid heat squeezed deep within the rock layers.
Look, Nasdaq futures jumped 1.4% in response, and the digital city-state's "golden relic" Bitcoin climbed back to the $65,000 mark. The younger generation claims every bull and bear cycle is unprecedented, but if you look through history, it's all copies. If you use the carbon-14 dating method to mark these market sentiments, you'll find the underlying logic is terrifyingly old: the war alarm is lifted, the ice of safe-haven assets melts, and funds flood into the riskiest fringes like the floodwaters of the Nile.
In this geological movement, the $XPL of US stock token tokens has attracted particular attention. To archaeologists, $XPL is like a stone bridge across the sea connecting the ancient Roman council chamber and the modern digital cathedral. When the tech edifice of the Old World injects liquidity again, these magical runes that map physical assets onto the chain trigger strong resonance in the fiber vein. When the Earth's crust moves in the Old World, the digital mirror of the New World immediately stirs up massive waves—this is nothing more than a replay of the classical financial expansion history on the crypto stratum.
From the mud tablets of Mesopotamia to the flashing codehashes on screens, humanity's passion for pursuing gains for centuries has never changed. Safe-haven funds flow out of the black asphalt, rushing to pour into the cracks of risk assets #OilDropsOnCeasefire #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量
A-share storage market value skyrockets to first place overnight: Discussing the scarcity premium and fundamental realities behind Changxin
Changxin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is rushing to go public, pushing the entire A-share storage chip sector's market value to unprecedented heights. Recently, many friends involved in US semiconductor stocks and A-share chips have asked me: Does this surge truly represent the "domestic substitution" narrative coming to fruition, or is it just another case of capital driving prices up with "valuation ahead of fundamentals"?
As a trader who closely watches Samsung and SK Hynix earnings reports and tracks Changxin's on-chain derivatives and secondary market chips, my judgment is very clear: this is a classic case of "valuation and narrative significantly ahead of short-term fundamentals," but the market still has to factor in the "scarcity premium" in its chip game.
Let's talk about the three layers of real logic behind this.
First, looking at fundamentals, objective reality must be respected. The global DRAM memory market is still dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, controlling over 90% of the share. Especially in this AI-driven storage bull market, the core profit growth points are concentrated entirely in HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and high-end DDR5. SK Hynix's Q2 operating profit exceeded 6 trillion KRW, all thanks to HBM's supply-demand imbalance. Currently, Changxin's main production capacity remains focused on DDR4 and mid-to-low-end LPDDR5. Coupled with upstream equipment bans imposing physical constraints, it is difficult for Changxin to capture the most lucrative segment in the top-tier AI computing supply chain in the short term. From the perspective of real cash flow and performance realization, the current valuation is clearly running far ahead of fundamentals.
But why does capital still dare to push the valuation to this level? This is the second layer of logic—the A-share market's chip pricing for "uniqueness" and "independent controllability." In the current A-share market, Changxin is an extremely scarce DRAM physical manufacturing leader. Previously, Pre-IPO contracts on Hyperliquid pushed Changxin's implied valuation to an extremely exaggerated level. A-share investors prefer logic that doesn't focus on how much you earn now but on whether you are "the only one who can replace imports." This chip structure means that at the initial listing stage, its price is determined jointly by "strategic scarcity" and capital scale, rather than by traditional PE or PB rational calculations.
Finally, about my personal position and response actions. Facing such a "narrative ahead of performance" target, my practical principle is simple: never use leverage to chase highs, and never blindly short. Chasing highs exposes your position to extremely high risk from valuation bubbles, with poor cost-effectiveness; shorting a target with strong local policy backing and scarcity premium is essentially opposing the market's chip structure. My strategy is to maintain spot positions linked to global real performance leaders like SK Hynix as the base, and for Changxin-related A-share targets, only look for right-side opportunities near defensive lines after lock-up expirations or pullback confirmations.
When you consider Changxin's listing, do you value its strategic substitution role more, or worry about a high valuation correction? Feel free to share your trading logic in the comments.
The above content represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment advice. DYOR, NFA. 7.27 Monday — $BTC & $ETH Weekly Strategy Last week played out exactly as we planned. Stayed bearish on bounces and it paid. $BTC tapped ∼67K, $ETH ∼1960, then both flushed to 63.6K and 1840. Trading with the trend felt good. Is the late-week bounce a reversal? I don’t think so. Markets priced in US-Iran escalation + higher oil/inflation. By Friday that fear faded, so we got a sentiment relief rally. Nothing fundamental changed. Right now: ETF outflows are still happening. Institutions aren’tI just looked at the BTC options data from the end of July, and there are several signals worth paying attention to.
On Friday (July 31), nearly 60,000 BTC options expired, with a Put/Call ratio of 0.65, showing a clear advantage on the call side. The maximum pain point is around 65,000—the options market expects the price to move in this direction before delivery.
I flipped through the delivery records from the past few months: the week before each monthly settlement, the price did tend to converge toward Max Pain. It's not mysticism—it's the hedging behavior of option market makers driving it.
There's another signal: BTC's 30-day implied volatility (IV) has dropped from 62% in early June to around 48% now. IV Continued decline indicates that the market believes there will be no major events in the short term. But after a few years here, I have a simple rule—the lower the IV, the fiercer the burst.
My current strategy is simple: hold your position steady and wait until delivery is complete before looking at the direction. When the market is quiet, staying patient is more important than anything.
$BTC $ETH $SOLTalking about Changxin Changxin’s listing isn’t just another chip IPO. It’s a re-rating signal for the whole memory sector. When people hear “AI” they think $NVDA, GPUs, and data centers. But AI is starving for more than compute. It needs memory, bandwidth, and reliable supply. That’s why Changxin matters. Globally DRAM has been a 3-player game: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron. $MU is the classic US storage cycle name. Changxin becoming the world’s 4th largest DRAM maker doesn’t flip the market share On July 26, 2026, The Wall Street Journal exclusively reported that Nvidia is negotiating with OpenAI to provide about $250 billion in financing guarantees for its 10-gigawatt data center project developed by SB Energy, a subsidiary of SoftBank, in southern Ohio. The total cost of the project (including chips) may exceed $500 billion, with the first phase of 800 megawatts expected to be operational in 2028. The electricity mainly comes from natural gas power facilities built by Japan under the framework of the US-Japan trade agreement, with power generation assets controlled by the US government. Guarantees cover leasing and debt financing, but do not include the chips themselves; NVIDIA is also discussing financing support of up to about $350 billion for OpenAI's chip procurement. This is not ordinary commercial endorsement, but an unprecedented vendor financing experiment. It directly transforms chip suppliers' balance sheets into a credit engine for customer expansion, locking in the computing power demand for years to come. If the market were honest enough, a healthy and organically growing industry wouldn't need sellers to use their credit to "create" buyers' payment power. The very appearance of such arrangements is a signal. Transaction Mechanism: Closed Loop of Credit Packaging and Demand Creation As a private company without stable profitability, OpenAI lacks investment-grade credit ratings and finds it difficult to independently bear hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure debt at reasonable costs. Nvidia uses its nearly $5 trillion market value as a credit package to cover leasing and construction debtLending sector capital flows: a wild ride 🚀 Early 2025: deposits sat at $55–65B. A small dip to $50–55B in April, then we recovered. H2 2025 went parabolic. Fueled by leverage demand and yield loops, TVL nearly doubled to ∼$125B by Nov–Dec. That lined up perfectly with $BTC breaking $122K ATH. Aave led with ∼50% market share, while Morpho, Spark, Maple, Fluid, and Kamino all scaled fast. 🟢📊 2026 told the opposite story. By July deposits crashed to $55–60B. Over 50% gone. What broke it? $BTC Holding B or Holding U Before the Crisis Breaks Out
USDT reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds--
According to Tether (the issuer of USDT), the scale of its stablecoins is enormous, and a very high proportion of its reserve assets are held in U.S. Treasury bonds. As of March 2025, Tether's issued stablecoins such as USDT will be close to $150 billion, with US Treasury bonds held in its reserve assets accounting for nearly $120 billion, accounting for about 80%. In addition, its reserve asset structure also includes short-term dollar financial assets such as U.S. Treasury bills (64.9%) and Treasury repurchase agreements (11.1%).
The Impact of the U.S. Treasury Collapse on USDT--
If the U.S. Treasury market crashes, USDT will face severe tests in the following dimensions:
1. Significant depreciation of underlying assets and risk of "de-anchoring."
The core of stablecoins lies in maintaining a 1:1 peg to the US dollar. The collapse of U.S. Treasury bonds means bond prices have plummeted and yields have soared. Since about 80% of USDT reserves are U.S. Treasuries, the value of its underlying assets will be directly affected. If the asset impairment exceeds USDT's overcollateralization buffer range, USDT faces a serious "depeging" risk, meaning the market price falls below $1.
2. Triggering runs and liquidity crises
The collapse of the U.S. Treasury debt and the shrinkage of underlying assets will directly destroy market trust in USDT. Once the market panics, many holders rush to convert USDT back to the US dollar, triggering a run. To cope with redemptions, Tether will be forced to urgently sell off its holdings of hundreds of billions of dollars in U.S. Treasuries during the bond market crash. This concentrated sell-off could not only exacerbate the crash in the U.S. Treasury market, but also put USDT at risk of bankruptcy due to its inability to liquidate assets in time.
3. Risk transmission and systemic crises
Because USDT is deeply pegged to US Treasuries, the credit and liquidity risks of US Treasuries are directly transmitted to the stablecoin market. If Tether goes bankrupt due to its assets being unable to be monetized, this crisis could spread from the crypto market to traditional financial markets, triggering a chain of financial turmoil similar to the 2008 Lehman crisis. At that point, the risks of U.S. Treasuries will essentially be passed on to global stablecoin holders.
USDT invests massive reserves in U.S. Treasury bonds, providing traditional credit backing, but also deeply binding it to U.S. sovereign debt risks. If U.S. Treasuries collapse, USDT will not only be unable to remain unaffected, but could even become the trigger for a larger-scale financial crisis.#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve may be facing the toughest decision of the year this time.
Because the two signals before Powell are moving in different directions.
On one hand, inflationary pressures are beginning to ease.
After the easing of the US-Iran situation, oil prices have quickly fallen back, and energy prices no longer put pressure on the market as they did previously.
For the Federal Reserve, this is undoubtedly good news.
After all, a large part of the resistance to rate cuts in recent years has come from recurring inflation.
But on the other hand, economic data has not given clear signs of a recession.
Last week’s initial jobless claims dropped to 187,000, below market expectations, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient.
This makes the problem more complicated.
If a stronger rate cut signal is released now, the market might think the Fed is easing policy prematurely before the economy has clearly cooled, and inflation could rise again in the future.
But if it continues to stay tough, it might miss the window to adjust policy.
That’s why the market is now focusing not just on what the rate will be this time.
But on how Powell will describe the future.
One sentence could affect the pricing of all assets in the coming months.
If the Fed sends dovish signals, the beneficiaries won’t be just US stocks.
Tech stocks, gold, and the crypto market could all gain new liquidity expectations.
But if Powell emphasizes that inflation risks still exist, the market might readjust rate cut expectations, and high-valuation assets will face pressure.
What’s more interesting is that this time the market is mixed with another variable.
AI giant earnings reports.
Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are about to release their results; investors are not only watching profits but also how much they will invest in building AI infrastructure in the future.
The market is actually waiting for several answers:
Whether inflation can continue to decline.
Whether the economy can maintain growth.
Whether AI investment is truly a worthwhile deal.
The Fed is not facing a simple choice between raising or cutting rates this time.
It is seeking a balance between controlling inflation, protecting the economy, and stabilizing the market.
And what the capital market fears most is that the answers are delayed.
Because in times of uncertainty, capital will always choose to wait and see first.
$XAU $CL Let's dig into the bottom chip structure of the last bear market
Finally, after the double top ends, it appears
Large peaks for chips below 20,000 and flattened chips between 30,000 and 60,000 are trapped
Looking at the current peak around 60,000 and the bonded chip structure above 80,000,
Obviously, the peak isn't high enough, and the trap zone isn't flat enough. Not to mention starting a bull market at 200,000, even 100,000 is almost impossible. The selling pressure is too severe. As for whether this is the bottom right now, I personally think time will take to verify
Of course, I'm not good at on-chain chip analysis myself. Let's see if any experts can analyze #ChangxinTechnologyListingAdds Variables to Global Storage Competition $BTC Market value is rising, but new money really hasn't flowed in. ✨
Do you know what signals are most easily overlooked right now?
Prices are turning green, but participation is actually quite picky. Funds are not distributed evenly; instead, they are clustered in a small handful of assets, with a large number of altcoins still standing in a daze. This isn't a general price hike; it's more like a carefully selected party—inviting only a select few.
I checked the data: open interest is cooling down, but trading volume remains relatively stable. This combination usually indicates that traders have become more cautious, no longer blindly chasing gains, but starting to be picky. True trend confirmation requires seeing widespread capital inflow, rather than just a few green candlesticks hyping themselves.
On the bullish side, the core narrative still supports the emotions:
- BTC remains the anchor of liquidity
- ETH continues to attract attention from institutions
- SOL represents the L1 exposure with high beta
- Risk appetite indicators like AI tracks (DATA, WLD) and HYPE are still attracting attention
- DOGE and ZEC act as barometers of retail investor sentiment
But don't forget, there are risk warnings hidden among the weaker groups: coins like BEAT, EDGE, TRUMP, and VIRTUAL are still bleeding. Where capital doesn't go, it often signals that sector rotation isn't complete yet, or the market simply doesn't plan to rotate at all.
The key lesson is actually quite simple: knowing where money isn't flowing is more important than knowing where it goes. A few bullish candles do not represent a new trend. Patience and confirmation are key, and when price and liquidity reach consensus, then increasing positions is the correct approach at this stage.
Summary: Green does not mean safety; the picky food market requires you to control it even more.
⚠️ This is just my personal observation, not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $DATA $WLD $HYPE $DOGE $ZEC #风险管理 #市场观察 #加密货币