What I want to see most in Xiaomi's latest earnings report is not how many phones were sold, but how much imagination space the automotive business is really starting to bring to Xiaomi. If I could only choose one business line, I would choose automotive. Phones remain Xiaomi's most mature and stable foundation, and the push towards high-end models is ongoing, but growth in the phone industry is becoming increasingly competitive, making it difficult for sales, prices, and profit margins to see any particularly dramatic leaps. Automotive is different. What’s most worth watching in Xiaomi now isn’t simply whether the SU7 sells well, but whether the automotive business can transition from rapid expansion to scalable profitability. If this earnings report shows continued growth in car deliveries, improved per-vehicle profitability, further narrowing of automotive business losses, or even approaching profitability, I think that would be the truly important signal. Because once the automotive business succeeds, Xiaomi’s logic changes. In the past, people looked at Xiaomi mainly through the lens of phone, IoT, and hardware profits; going forward, we may need to recalculate whether Xiaomi can truly become a "people-car-home full ecosystem" company in the real sense. So for this earnings report, what I look forward to most is not a pretty revenue number, but how far the automotive business is from profitability. Phones determine how stable Xiaomi is now; automotive determines how big Xiaomi can be in the future. #财报观察员：小米即将发布财报，你更看好哪条业务线？ $XIAOMI

A brief analysis of BTC's sudden surge close to 2000 USD in the early morning This move is really quite strong; BTC quickly rallied from around 62,600 USD to about 64,400 USD, gaining nearly 2,000 points in a short time. People online have already started shouting "bull market restart," but I think it's better not to jump to conclusions yet. This rise seems more like several factors coinciding: support near 62,000 strengthened, short positions became crowded, and after the price reclaimed 63,000 and 64,000, it easily triggered stop-losses and liquidations, with short covering pushing the price further up. More importantly, macro pressures are not as severe as before. Recently, inflation hasn't worsened, and market concerns about the Fed tightening policy further in September have eased, which is clearly a positive signal for BTC. But I won't directly call this the start of a bull market for now. What really matters is whether 62,400 can become the new low for this cycle, and whether the area around 64,000 can shift from resistance to support. If BTC next retests 64,000 without breaking it and then challenges 65,000 or even higher, then the nature of the market will be completely different. For tonight's move, I prefer to interpret it as: It's not that BTC suddenly turned bullish, but that the shorts are starting to realize they might be on the wrong side. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 $BTC

Has a bowl of beef noodles really won? Has Erbing really, really underperformed a bowl of Lanzhou beef noodle ramen in five years? What exactly has changed in five years? A bowl of Lanzhou beef noodles used to cost 12 yuan, now it's 20 yuan, a 67% increase. Ethereum used to be $4200, now it's $1875, down 55%. The most heartbreaking part is here: you realize that assets can fall back to their value from five years ago, but living costs rarely go back with you. Salaries rise a little slower, rent is a bit more expensive, food costs a bit more, transportation costs a bit more, daily expenses creep up bit by bit, and in the end you realize — it’s not that you suddenly became poor one day, but that the money in your hand is quietly becoming less and less valuable. So what this chart really wants to say might not be that Ethereum has underperformed a bowl of Lanzhou beef ramen. But rather, in the past five years, as we worked hard to earn money, save money, and invest, have we actually outpaced the cost of living? If an asset’s price drops 55% after five years, but what you face every day has become 67% more expensive, then the most important question isn’t "when will it go back up." It is: Is 100 yuan five years from now still the same as 100 yuan five years ago? $ETH #波动雷达：币种异动观察

The most critical thing about SNDK tonight is not how much it rises Tonight, I lean towards three scenarios for SNDK. First, a high open followed by a continued surge, even challenging previous highs. With 8 customers and about $9.39 billion in long-term agreements, plus the company's mid-to-high double-digit growth and high margin targets, there are indeed reasons for funds to keep going long. Second, which I think is the most likely: a high open of about 5%, a further surge during the session, then intense volatility, and finally a significant narrowing of gains. After all, it has already risen continuously before, and the positive news didn't just appear tonight; short-term funds are likely to take profits on the high open. Third, a high open followed by a decline or even a significant pullback. If it quickly breaks key levels after opening with a noticeable increase in volume, it means funds are switching from a "long-term growth logic" to "profit-taking on good news." But my subjective judgment is quite clear: a direct big drop tonight is not the most likely outcome for now. I prefer: high open → surge → intense volatility → narrowing gains. SNDK now is no longer just about speculating on NAND price increases; what is truly being repriced is the revenue certainty brought by long-term agreements and the imagination space for future profit margins. So what I care about most tonight is not how many points it rises at the open, but whether there is support after the high open. If the surge can hold steady, it means funds are still willing to continue valuing it; if the high open is smashed directly, even with volume pushing the price below the opening price, that is the real warning signal. My scenario is simple: not afraid of a high open, most afraid of no support after a high open. #闪迪长期协议成焦点，开盘表现待验证 $SNDK

BTC trading volume has shrunk to this extent, but I’m actually less willing to directly interpret it as "capital leaving the market." It’s more like capital is starting to pick directions. Recently, BTC spot and ETF buying have indeed been noticeably weaker than before, but interestingly, institutional funds in ETH have been more active. In July, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs were about $365 million, while BTC ETFs only saw about $205 million; capital rotation has already begun. (crypto.news) So now, what I’m more focused on isn’t the low BTC trading volume, but who can attract incremental capital back. If BTC ETFs see continuous net inflows again, I’m still more optimistic that BTC will break out first because it has a deeper institutional capital pool and ETFs have already formed relatively mature allocation channels. Conversely, if BTC continues to trade sideways while ETH ETFs keep attracting funds, it indicates that this round of capital might really be shifting from "safe-haven mainstream assets" to "high-elasticity assets." My own approach won’t rush to choose one over the other. BTC and others will reconfirm capital, while ETH deserves appropriately increased attention. The most dangerous thing now isn’t the lack of market movement, but that capital has already started rotating while you’re still betting with last round’s logic. #BTC成交萎缩，ETF买盘能否回暖 $BTC

The bull has arrived, and it’s not over yet. After several rounds of rallies and pullbacks, it actually hasn’t shown a complete collapse; instead, it looks more like a high-level shakeout. At its peak, the market cap once surged close to $30 million. Although it later retreated, the overall hype didn’t just disappear. That’s why I’m still keeping an eye on it. For Meme, fundamentals have never been the most important thing; attention is. The movie topic "The Bull Has Arrived" is still fermenting, and the eponymous Meme has already formed some market recognition. As long as there’s continued capital to follow up, it could very well enter a second round. Of course, the key now isn’t guessing how much more it can rise, but whether it can hold the current range. If trading volume can be maintained, and after price pullbacks there’s still capital absorbing, even challenging previous highs again, that means the story isn’t over yet. Conversely, if volume keeps shrinking and hype drops quickly, that’s when real caution is needed. So for the current bull, I’m not rushing to say it’s over. I prefer to see it as a Chinese Meme undergoing a second round of capital testing. Whether it can transform from a "one-day wonder coin" into a real hotspot that lasts several days or longer depends on whether a second group is willing to take over the chips from the first group. This is the most worth watching aspect right now. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

What the US stock market fears the most has never been high gains In Q2, the S&P 500 earnings grew 31% year-over-year, significantly exceeding previous expectations. On the surface, this is very positive, but I actually think the biggest risk now is not insufficient earnings, but that the market has already priced in too much of the "earnings continuing to exceed expectations" scenario. The higher the index goes, the less the subsequent rise can be driven by stories and must rely on solid profit realization. Especially in this AI cycle, if corporate earnings continue to grow rapidly, 8000 points or even higher is not impossible; but once earnings growth starts to slow, valuation pressure will quickly intensify. So the 7894-point target, in my view, is not Wall Street being bearish on US stocks, but a reminder of one issue: the current index is no longer cheap, and every future increase requires more profits to support it. If continuing to allocate to US stocks, I still prefer to focus on AI technology and companies that can truly convert AI investments into revenue, profits, and cash flow, rather than simply chasing the index. What truly determines whether US stocks can continue to hit new highs in this cycle is not whether earnings grow, but whether earnings can continue to outperform expectations. As long as this logic holds, US stocks can still reach new highs; once expectations begin to loosen, valuations may move before earnings do. #标普盈利超预期，华尔街为何仅看7894点 $SNDK $

This time, when Duan Yongping bought SpaceX, I think the real point of interest is not that he made $5.45 million in 20 days, but that he openly revealed his "psychological price". On July 24, he sold 1,000 contracts of $115 Put options, collecting $2.326 million in premiums; on August 5, he bought 100,000 shares of the underlying stock at $108.68. Looking at these two transactions together, the meaning is quite clear: SpaceX can fall and fluctuate wildly, but if it really drops near $115, he is willing to take it. This is a completely different logic from simply chasing to buy at $140. Now many people are focused on SpaceX's sharp pullback after surging past $200, worrying about lock-up expiration, valuation, and volatility, but Duan Yongping instead revealed his price to catch the stock during market panic. So this $5.45 million is just a surface number; the truly interesting part is his bottom price. If SpaceX continues to fall and the Put options are exercised, he will actually receive more shares. In short, he is not betting on whether SpaceX will rise in the short term, but whether the $115 level is worth catching in the long term. $SPCX

CPI and PPI are cooling down simultaneously, and the expectation of a rate hike in September is indeed starting to loosen, but I actually think it's not yet time to be overly optimistic. It's good that inflation is going down, but the real dilemma for the Federal Reserve lies here: if inflation continues to cool but employment and economic data do not significantly worsen, a rate hike may not be completely ruled out. What's more troublesome is that if internal divisions within the Fed continue, the market will keep trading expectations back and forth. So recently, when I trade, I don't simply increase my BTC position just because a CPI report is lower than expected. What I pay more attention to is whether several sets of data can form the same direction: declining inflation, weakening employment, and cooling economy. Only if these signals appear simultaneously will risk assets be more likely to usher in genuine easing expectations. What’s most worth watching now is no longer just whether there will be a rate hike in September, but whether the next set of data will continue to push market expectations toward easing. When macro data changes daily, moving positions more slowly actually makes it easier to survive. $BTC #CPI与PPI同步降温，加息分歧扩大

The real highlight of SpaceX is not that Musk still holds 48.4% As of June 30, the latest SEC disclosure shows that Musk still owns 48.4% of SpaceX shares. But today is already August 14, so the real point of this data is not "how much money Musk has," but what this 48.4% still represents two months later. SpaceX has gone public, and its stock price has experienced a cycle of a crazy surge, a significant pullback, and then a recovery. What the market is facing now is actually a very typical game: on one side, newly unlocked shares bring additional circulating chips; on the other side, Starlink, AI computing power, and space infrastructure continuously tell new valuation stories. And Musk’s nearly half stake is one of the biggest stabilizers in this story. If the major shareholder does not significantly reduce holdings, it means that large chips have not yet flooded the secondary market crazily. This is very important for a newly listed stock with a very high valuation. But this does not necessarily mean SPCX will definitely rise. On the contrary, the upcoming unlocks are the real stress test. If new chips keep entering the market and the stock price can still absorb the selling pressure or even continue to rise, it means that capital truly begins to recognize SpaceX’s future valuation logic. But if the stock price keeps under pressure once the unlock happens, it means the current valuation may have already overdrawn too much of the future in advance. So I won’t just watch how many points SPCX rises today. What I want to see more is: whether Musk will reduce holdings, how many of the unlocked shares are actually sold, and whether SpaceX can support this exaggerated valuation now with growth from Starlink and AI businesses. 48.4% is not a simple shareholding ratio. It’s more like a ruler helping us judge: after SpaceX’s listing, is it truly completing a value re-evaluation, or is it once again selling the future story to the market in advance. $SPCX