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Today I finally figured something out: raising interest rates in a low-rate environment is undoubtedly bad for the entire financial sector. However, if the Federal Reserve raises rates at such a high level, it could actually be good for the entire crypto space! Why is that?
FY2025 (October 1, 2024 – September 30, 2025, ended)
• Total Receipts: about $5.235 trillion (precisely $5,234.6–5,235 billion)
• Total Outlays: about $7.010 trillion
• Fiscal Deficit: about $1.775 trillion (around 5.8–5.9% of GDP)
• U.S. debt size: $40 trillion, with net interest close to $1 trillion
Losing about $2.7 trillion net every year, where does the money come from to cover this? Printing money, cutting interest rates (which is basically impossible now since the Fed wants to control inflation), so only printing money and dollar devaluation remain! For the crypto space, isn't this great news? Here comes the monetary narrative again! Moreover, U.S. debt requires us crypto enthusiasts to buy stablecoins, so the SEC keeps pushing U.S. stocks onto the blockchain, plus the midterm elections, and Trump also needs money from crypto billionaires! #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $BTC Bitwise has filed the final prospectus for a spot ETF on NEAR.
The document is dated September 24, the fund ticker is NRR, and the listing is proposed on NYSE Arca.
At the same time, Bitwise published its investment case for NEAR — a 39-page document co-authored by the company's CIO, Matt Hogan.
In it, Bitwise models three price scenarios for $NEAR by 2030:
🟢 base case — $155
🚀 optimistic — $562
🔴 pessimistic — $1.63
These are Bitwise's scenarios, not guaranteed price forecasts.
To justify the optimistic scenario, the company compares NEAR to Visa.
In 2024, Visa processed about $15.7 trillion in payment volume, and its market capitalization was approximately $701 billion.
Bitwise's logic is that blockchain networks can gradually become infrastructure not only for cryptocurrencies but also for payments, financial services, and AI applications.
In such a scenario, NEAR is viewed as an infrastructure asset, not just another L1.
Separately important is the ETF's structure itself. Coinbase Custody will act as the custodian of NEAR, and the fund plans to stake the assets. Investors are expected to receive about 67% of the staking rewards.
Bitwise already uses a similar model for its Solana product.
This creates a potentially interesting mechanism for the market: inflows into the ETF mean not only buying NEAR but also possibly moving some tokens into staking.
Accordingly, part of the asset may be temporarily removed from the liquid supply.
When Bitwise filed the application, NEAR was approximately 27th by market capitalization, with an average daily trading volume of about $272 million.
Now NEAR gains access to another type of capital: investors can gain exposure to the token through a traditional brokerage account without directly buying cryptocurrency.
Therefore, the main change is not just the ETF itself.
NEAR is gradually moving from an asset category mostly accessible to crypto users to a format that can be integrated into traditional investment infrastructure.$PHA is up more than 63% and sitting around 0.08312. That kind of expansion makes me even less interested in chasing the current candle. I’d rather see the first pullback find buyers and then reclaim the breakout area.
Entry: 0.0760–0.0790
Confirmation: Reclaim 0.0835 and hold it on retest
SL: 0.0720
TP1: 0.0880
TP2: 0.0950
TP3: 0.1050
TP4: 0.1200
Around 0.0775 entry, that gives roughly 1.9R, 3.2R, 5R and 7.7R.
The key for me is whether volume stays elevated while price holds the pullback.The interesting part isn’t only the size of the positions, but how differently each trade is performing. ### $ETH — 25,000 ETH | 25x Long * Unrealized P&L: **+$1.2997M** * Entry: **$2,523.95** * Liquidation: **$2,518.29** * Funding paid: approximately **-$825.8K** ETH is currently the only profitable position in the portfolio. However, the liquidation level is extremely close to the entry price, leaving very little room for even a small adverse move. With 25x cross-margin leverage, the position First, the price slid from around $0.0018 to $0.0015. That drop made it look like the shorts had finally got control, and plenty of traders probably started feeling confident. Then, barely 15 minutes later, everything flipped. $ONE suddenly ripped toward $0.0022, sending short positions straight into liquidation. But the crazy part came next. As soon as the shorts were cleared out, the market reversed again and started punishing the longs. And yes… I was one of the people who chased the upside. The most fragile link in the rebound is actually mistaking "recovery" for "confirmation." Is this wave truly a new round of initiation, or just a fake-out in a downtrend continuation? When I watch the market, what I care about most is not how much it has risen, but whether the cross-market linkage has genuinely connected. BTC now looks like a main switch: holding 80K keeps the structure decent; 82K to 83K is the area that needs volume confirmation—without volume, even if it surges up, it’s easy to be pushed back down. This looks more like a divergence phase in the trend, not a clean start phase. Snapshot of data, the signals I see: - BTC: 80K is the structural bottom line, 82K–83K is the volume verification zone; until surpassed, it’s considered a rebound. - ETH: Technical indicators show signs of warming; 2.55K–2.60K is a pressure zone that must be watched. - SOL: Risk appetite is more exposed; 110–115 is the touchstone for sentiment strength. - Cross-market: ETF subscriptions/redemptions, OI changes, US tech stocks and dollar rhythm are the keys to whether this round of linkage can continue. Momentum signals and risk signals should be viewed separately. The bullish path is: ETF funds flow back in net, OI rises moderately rather than surging, BTC breaks above 83K with volume, ETH simultaneously recovers 2.60K, SOL holds above 115; only then will altcoin sentiment truly ignite, and risk appetite shift from defense to offense. The bearish path is: BTC repeatedly fails to break 82K–83K, ETH stagnates around 2.55K No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. During the bottom grinding in the session, $BTC never broke 79,076.1, and BTC buy orders gradually strengthened. I knew someone was catching below, so after signaling to go long, I took a partial position first. While everyone else was still watching, the price had already started to move up.
Now with 83,908.5 in front of me, +611.03% income in sight, it was worth the wait. You don't have to catch the whole fish every time; taking a portion is already great.
Better to miss a rally than to catch a flying knife and end up bleeding.
Take profit on 70% of the position first, keep the remaining 30% at cost price as protection. Let profits run if it continues to rise, and don't let gains turn uncomfortable if it falls back. Time to enjoy a good meal, but don't let greed ruin the rhythm.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Watch for new structures to emerge; opportunities remain, so don't be anxious.
$ADA $BNB No hiding, no pretending everything is fine. Here’s the real account update: Total P&L: -$8,455.92 Maximum 30-day drawdown: 73.18% Win rate: 41.02% That equity curve has been painful to watch. There were plenty of nights when I seriously questioned whether I could turn things around. But I’m still in the game. Today, I managed to pull a small win from $BTC. I opened a short at 84,485 and closed at 83,927, booking +426 U, or roughly +56% on the position. Compared with an $8,455 loss, $426 is obvi$META is really surging hard this round, from 679 to 780, hardly looking back along the way. This AI concept is really hitting the mark.
Muse is making quite a splash, even the Connect conference dedicated a segment to it, with both hardware and smart glasses integration. Morgan Stanley even came out saying it might be the most widely used consumer AI application after ChatGPT. The market's reaction is pretty honest too, with the stock price shooting up, and the market cap heading toward 2 trillion.
But honestly, the rise to 780 has started to lose steam. In the past two days, it dropped directly from 780 to 752, down nearly 30 dollars. This pattern looks familiar—expectations were hyped up, and when it’s time to cash out, the funds exit first, leaving others stuck wondering if Muse is really monetizing or just another story.
From my perspective, the AI hardware plus Agent shopping logic is quite appealing. Smart glasses connecting to Muse, Agents helping you place orders at Walmart—this definitely sounds like the next generation of interaction. But commercialization involves a lot between concept and execution. Before the financial reports truly reflect it, this recent surge has a bit of speculative expectation baked in.
Now that it’s pulling back at this level, whether it’s just a shakeout before continuing up or a temporary peak is honestly hard to tell. The MACD green bars are narrowing, indicating short-term momentum is weakening. For those holding, watch closely these days—don’t buy in at the peak of the hype, and don’t panic sell on the first day of the pullback.
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 Last night I made one of the simplest mistakes, and honestly, one of the most expensive ones. I removed my stop-loss and then refused to close the position when I had the chance to exit around breakeven. The result? A good chunk of my earlier profit was given straight back to the market. $ZEC Big reminder for myself: having a plan means nothing if you abandon the risk controls when the trade starts moving against you.Long-term U.S. Treasury yields continue to climb, increasing financing pressure.📈
This signal is more worrisome than short-term yields. Long-term yields are the true anchor for global asset pricing; when they rise, it means valuations of all long-duration assets must compress accordingly.
Why is this troublesome? Because this isn’t something the Federal Reserve alone can fix. U.S. debt has surpassed 40 trillion, with new bonds continuously issued, creating excessive supply. Coupled with high oil prices and sticky inflation, buyers demand higher risk premiums to take on the debt. Long-term yields are being forcibly pushed up.
The impact on the crypto space is direct. With a 5% risk-free return available, why would institutional funds take the risk to buy crypto assets? Bitcoin is just oscillating around 83,000, with no large on-chain capital stepping in—everything is propped up by on-exchange leverage. In this environment, even if altcoins have localized rebounds, their sustainability is very weak.
Operationally, keep holding on. Those with spot positions should hold steady; reduce leverage on contracts and avoid betting on direction. During this high-interest suppression period, preserving your USDT is more important than anything. Only when long-term yields truly peak and fall will the big rally in risk assets come. Don’t die before dawn.⚖️
How high do you think this wave of long-term U.S. Treasury yields will go?👇
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Instead, I opened a short on $ETH. I’ve been saying for a while that when the market starts struggling, ETH is usually the first one I look at for a short setup—so I followed that idea again. — I honestly expected the market to sell off hard around 9:30 today. Last year, October 11th saw a sharp drop begin around that same time, so I thought history might repeat itself. But this time, nothing major happened. The market barely moved lower, and that actually made me more nervous. Now I’m questioni"Sideways for the Third Day: Who Will Blink First"
It's been three days, and the market seems like someone hit the pause button. BTC and ETH neither fall nor rise, just grinding back and forth, with the market waiting for a direction.
ETH is hovering around 2670, reaching a high of 2705 but unable to hold. I'm still holding my 2700 short position: took profit once the day before yesterday, added back on the rebound yesterday, and continuing to hold today. BTC isn't doing much better, tugging between 84,000 and 85,000, touching 84,900 and 82,800, but refusing to pick a side. Those chasing longs will probably be staring at their screens in a daze tonight.
ZEC is quite eye-catching, jumping from 1500 to 1550, up three percent. A speculative coin is a speculative coin; while the main market moves sideways, it plays on its own. But this kind of rise raises questions about sustainability; if it really falls, it won't be subtle.
After being squeezed out to the point of doubting life a few days ago, these past days of sideways grinding have worn down patience. Both bulls and bears are uncomfortable. I'm not in a hurry and continue to hold shorts. Until a direction emerges, oscillation is the main theme.
Bulls don't die, bears don't stop. Keep waiting, don't rush.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 "Liquidation Heatmap and Liquidation Magnet: The Micro-Operational Logic of Bitcoin's Short-Term Volatility"
In the crypto market dominated by derivatives, short-term price movements often follow the logic of "seeking the largest liquidity liquidation pool," meaning prices tend to move toward the areas with the densest network-wide liquidation orders.
Driving Mechanisms of the Liquidation Heatmap:
1. Magnetic Effect of Leveraged Positions: High-leverage longs and shorts leave dense forced liquidation price levels on the chart, forming huge passive liquidity pools. Market makers and high-frequency algorithms push prices to break through these thresholds to absorb massive counterparty positions at minimal cost.
2. Accelerated Short-Term Stop-Loss Stampede: When prices are pushed into areas dense with short liquidations, forced market buy orders triggered by the liquidation system create a stampede, which in turn propels prices to spike instantly; the opposite applies as well.
3. Momentum Exhaustion After Liquidity Plundering: Once the dense liquidation pools are fully "ignited" and cleared, the leveraged fuel driving price movement is often quickly consumed, leading to rapid liquidity reversals in the market.
By learning to observe the distribution of dense network-wide liquidation zones, you can understand those seemingly random spikes and avoid becoming fuel for algorithms. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H Capital Rotation Observation
$BTC remains the core anchor of market direction, $ETH is used to observe market breadth, while $ZEC is more suitable for measuring whether high-volatility capital is spreading to other assets.
📊 Latest capital data still shows support: On September 24, US spot ETF data showed BTC net inflow of about $190.7M, ETH about $48.3M, SOL about $32.8M; recently, US crypto ETFs attracted about $3.04B over four trading days, including about $2.25B for BTC and about $603M for ETH.
🔎 Key 1H signals to watch:
🟠 BTC holds $84K → main market trend remains 🔵 ETH retakes $2.65K → breadth begins to improve 🟢 ZEC breaks $1,550 → high Beta capital rotation further strengthens
🔥 BTC stable + ETH/ZEC in sync → 🚀 capital diffusion, market has potential to expand
⚠️ BTC stable + ETH/ZEC weakening → insufficient market participation, beware of BTC strength alone
Don't chase every candlestick. Price gives direction, volume and capital flow confirm it.
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #Crypto #DailyOrbit #CryptoMarket 🔼 The Bull Market Has Been Confirmed.
This signal happens when the STH cost basis confirms crossing above the active LTH cost basis.
By active LTH, I mean the portion of supply that has moved at least once over the past 7 years.
This way, we exclude the portion of supply that can be considered dormant/immobile.【$BTC ｜LTH Profit Supply Signal】
In the past 12 years, this indicator has only turned upward 4 times.
After each of these 4 times, BTC continued to rise.
Now, it has strengthened once again.
The proportion of supply held by Long-Term Holders (LTH) in profit has crossed above the historical median minus 1 standard deviation again, currently rising to 68.41%.
Similar signals appeared in:
2015
2019
2020
2023
and now.
🐼【Indicator Logic】
When this indicator falls below this level, it means a significant portion of long-term holders are at a floating loss.
Historically, these holders usually do not rush to sell during loss phases.
When the indicator crosses back above this level, it often means this portion of long-term holdings is starting to return to profitability on a large scale.
The market has countless narratives every day.
But ultimately, the data is what truly matters.
I hope you keep watching the data instead of being led by narratives.
What do you think about this signal?
Do you believe $BTC will continue to strengthen, or will this time be different?👇Understanding the logic of U.S. Treasury bonds is key to grasping the current market situation✨
Actually, there's no need to overthink the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike news; the real market driver recently has been the movement of U.S. Treasuries.
With long-term yields continuously rising, it's clear that capital has long stopped buying into the Fed's verbal policy expectations. On one hand, policy tightens to stabilize inflation; on the other, massive bond issuance underpins the market. This contradictory approach has caused the market to question the creditworthiness of the U.S. dollar.
The current BTC pricing logic has been completely transformed; it is no longer simply a risk-volatile asset. Facing the ongoing overextension of fiat credit, Bitcoin and gold have become high-quality hedging assets. Coupled with continuous net inflows into ETFs and long-term institutional allocations, the bottom support is very solid.
In contrast, ETH's performance has been weak, falling with the market but not rising with it. Without a credit-hedging narrative and with staking yields lagging behind U.S. Treasury yields, ETH becomes the first asset to see capital withdrawal when liquidity tightens. This is the key reason for its divergence from BTC's trend.
The overall long-term trend remains positive, though short-term volatility after rallies will be more intense. At this stage, there's no need for frequent trading; just patiently wait for interest rates to stabilize and the market to complete credit pricing, then hold your positions calmly～
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Secure the profits, a 40% short-term review in three days
This time I listened to the community friends, didn’t continue to be greedy, and took profits directly. Made 40% profit in three days, with very high capital utilization, the timing was pretty much spot on. The only regret is that the position was only 30,000 U, resulting in about 12,000 U in hand; if it had been 50,000 U, the profit could have been 20,000 U. It’s not true that I’m not a bit upset, but the market is never short of opportunities, what’s lacking is principal and patience.
I probably won’t play with AKE for a while, won’t touch it in the short term. Next, I’ll continue to look for the next Alpha, better to miss out than to make a mistake. $AKE $ONE $ZEC will still be observed, but no rush to act.
The current macro environment is also unsettled: The Federal Reserve has restarted rate hikes, yet BTC still shows resilience; long-term US Treasury yields continue to climb, increasing financing pressure; during earnings season, Costco’s performance exceeded expectations, followed by Micron. Hot sectors rotate quickly, securing profits is more important than paper wealth.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 5.2%—this number on the board is like a black bishop silently pinning my king's wing on f7—not check yet, but the next move will be.
The entire chessboard is being re-evaluated. The Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes is like pushing the queen from d1 all the way to h5 in the midgame, targeting not just a single pawn but the entire king's pawn chain. The 10-year yield at 5.2% is the highest point in 0.7 years; the 30-year at 5.46% shatters a 22-year ceiling. This is not a mere piece exchange; it’s a shift in central control—whoever controls the long-end rates controls the tempo of the entire board.
The most expensive lesson in my career is this: don’t focus on which move your opponent made, but on which space they are preparing for the next move. Expansion of long-end repos, on the surface, is to replenish market liquidity, but in essence, it’s a forced exchange—trading short-term chips for long-term breathing room. But if the piece structure doesn’t improve after the exchange, the endgame only becomes harder to play; this is a cold fact all grandmasters understand.
What does a 7.45% 30-year fixed mortgage mean? It means the ordinary person’s king’s wing pawns can no longer advance. Real estate is the longest pawn chain on the board; once it freezes, all the squares for other pieces to move shrink. Rising corporate financing costs are like the opponent’s knight jumping to capture your central control; and risk asset valuations are downstream of discount rates—interest rates are the water level, and when the water rises, all ungrounded pieces start to drift.
Look at tokens pegged to US stocks, like $xBMNR. Its movement is like a knight in the corner: sharp, jumping far, but on a compressed board, its mobility is gradually eaten away by the limited squares. Long-end rates are its invisible opponent; as pressure on the discount side continues, any position relying on future narratives is forced to reveal its hand early. It’s now in a typical constrained position: you think you’re attacking, but your queen’s wing is already locked by your own king.
What are the true masters calculating now? Not rushing to find checkmate, but first calculating the opponent’s time. The market’s time panic hasn’t arrived yet, but the chess clock is ticking. The most dangerous thing in a high-yield environment is never making a wrong move, but making the right move at the wrong tempo—prematurely sacrificing pieces is like handing over initiative for free.
My judgment: this is not a tactical probe, but a structural change in pawn formation. The midgame for risk assets has just been set, while the distant endgame’s direction is already written—whoever’s pawn chain breaks first only has the draw left.
In the endgame, pawns are more valuable than knights. #USTreasuryYieldsRise #日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged to 3.075%, the highest since August 1996. This is not just Japan's issue; it signals the end of the era of cheap global capital.
The Bank of Japan just raised rates to 1.25% in September, a 30-year high. With government debt exceeding 250% of GDP, rate hikes directly increase interest payment pressure. But inflation can't be suppressed, and the yen is weak, so hikes are unavoidable. The long-term yield breaking 3% indicates the market is pricing in a clash between fiscal loss of control and forced tightening by the central bank.
For BTC, this is solid short-term pressure. Yen carry trades are a major source of global leveraged funds, borrowing cheap yen to buy high-yield assets including US stocks and crypto. As Japanese rates rise, carry trade costs increase, and liquidation pressure will transmit to all risk assets. BTC is oscillating around 85,000, already under pressure from Fed rate hikes and US Treasury yields above 5%. Another move from Japan makes a rebound even harder.
But looking longer term, the logic reverses. Japan's debt monetization is reaching its limit; fiscal loss of control means the yen's purchasing power will continue to be diluted. Debt issues are surfacing in major global economies, and cracks in fiat currency credit are growing. BTC, as a non-sovereign hard asset, benefits from this. Short-term pain, long-term gain.
Operationally, don't rush to bottom-fish. The chain reaction from yen carry trade liquidations may not be over yet. Wait for the market to digest this liquidity shock, then observe BTC's performance at key support levels. The direction hasn't changed, only the rhythm has been disrupted. Be patient for signals $BTC The load-bearing wall has passed inspection—the shear wall at Costco has withstood an 11% vertical load; the membership renewal rate is like its reinforcement ratio, dense enough to have almost no cracks.
On the Micron side, there is a super high-rise building currently pouring the core tube. Everyone is watching its concrete grade—DRAM, NAND, HBM—these three columns determine how many floors the entire building can have. The AI server is a huge additional construction demand suddenly imposed by the client; the blueprints have been revised repeatedly, but the foundation remains the same plot of land. The storage industry has always been a "load cyclic overload" disaster zone; the settlement joints from the previous cycle haven't been fully repaired, and new floor slabs are already being added.
The $xINTC target, in my view, is like an old building renovation project reviewed by an external structural engineer. Its own load-bearing system does not determine its fate; what truly determines its seismic rating are the two giant structures under construction next door—one is a stable shear wall structure for retail consumption, the other is a framed tube structure for storage computing power. The linkage of US stock token targets is essentially wind load transfer: when wind pressure in one direction weakens, displacement in the other direction is amplified.
Looking at targets like Costco, I focus on the foundation depth and long-term settlement curve—stable, slow, and predictable, like a landmark that has been operating for thirty years, hardly needing on-site re-verification. For targets like Micron, I look at stress monitoring data during construction; the first few minutes after opening are the peak pumping pressure during pouring, and everyone wants to know if the formwork will crack.
What is most taboo in design institutes? Reporting with a beautiful rendering that no one has read the structural calculation book for. The AI narrative is that rendering; the capacity expansion of HBM and contract prices of DRAM are the reinforcement in the calculation book. If the calculation book is unsigned, no matter how bright the rendering is, it is an illegal construction.
I have reviewed too many projects; the ones that collapse in the end are always those that skipped a waterproof layer to save time. Market linkage volatility hides in those invisible nodes—the credit spread of AI capital expenditure, the turnover rate of memory spot, and actual sales on the consumer side. These are hidden nodes; once they fail, cracks propagate from the top floor to the foundation in just one quarter.
The current market is a construction phase undergoing structural transformation. The upper part is a framework of consumer resilience, the lower part is the pile foundation of computing power expectations, and the middle transfer beam has not fully solidified. Whoever overloads the transfer layer too much will have to listen to the sound of concrete cracking. #CostcoBeatsMicronNext $ZEC I only realized after liquidating everything that the most hidden leverage in this game was not on the market, but added to my own life. I thought I was just placing a few trades, but in fact, I unknowingly used those steady days, my parents' expectations, and her fallen tears as collateral. The candlestick charts distorted my dopamine threshold, making me numb to all the ordinary warmth in reality. In the end, when the Federal Reserve released a hawkish signal, my dream shattered. When I turned around, the girl who once looked at me with eyes full of hope was gone, and I could barely catch the concern my parents offered. I always thought I was battling the market makers, but in truth, I was just a madman, exchanging the most sincere human emotions for a bunch of illusory bubbles. The moment I shifted the focus of my life to the market, I had already lost After $ETH surged above 2740, it still couldn't sustain the upward momentum.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
The short position was opened at 2709.
As of the time of writing, ETH perpetual contracts have fallen back to around 2695, with only a small profit of a dozen points for now. This range only means the price has just returned below the cost line; it can't be said that the bears have won yet.
In the past 24 hours, ETH's highest was 2743 and lowest was 2665. The 2700–2720 range is the first short-term resistance zone. As long as the rebound continues to be suppressed below this area, the short at 2709 still has observation value.
Look first at 2680 below. If the price breaks below 2680 and the rebound fails to recover above it, the bears start to take control, and then the previous low at 2665 can be watched; if 2665 also fails to hold, then focus on the 2630–2600 area.
But if ETH recovers above 2720 again, it indicates the downward pressure is insufficient, and the price may test around 2740 once more. Only after firmly standing above 2750 does the short position's short-term logic need to be reassessed.
$BTC is currently around 83900, having retreated after attempting to break 85000. If BTC continues to be suppressed below 85000, ETH's upward push will be more difficult; once BTC firmly stands above 85000 again, the ETH short position must guard against being pulled up again.
Hold the short at 2709 for now.
The position is just a bit more comfortable now, but to truly realize profit, an effective breakout is still needed.🌙 Good night, Creators.
The market is still in a high volatility phase, but the capital structure is showing some positive changes. Tonight, focus on these three core assets:
➤ $BTC Bitcoin: around $84.2K
BTC has held key areas after a surge; although short-term momentum has cooled, the overall structure has not significantly weakened yet. More notably, the US spot BTC ETF recorded about $190.7M net inflow on September 24, maintaining inflows for several consecutive days.
➤ $ETH Ethereum: around $2.68K
ETH continues to consolidate above $2.6K, with buyers still providing support at key levels. On September 24, the US spot ETH ETF saw about $66.1M net inflow, indicating ongoing institutional interest.
➤ $SOL Solana: around $117
SOL remains resilient, with recent gains accompanied by increased ETF capital and on-chain activity. Latest data shows SOL rose about 14% over the past week, remaining one of the high Beta assets attracting market attention in the short term.
📊 The market is shifting from a "pure rebound" to a "capital re-pricing" phase.
BTC ETF year-to-date capital flow has reversed from a net outflow gap of about $5.8B in July to a net inflow of about $800M, showing clear improvement in capital conditions.
But volatility has not disappeared.
BTC 🚨Who breaks the deadlock first? BTC sets the direction, ETH provides the elasticity
The next clue for the market lies not in who rises the most, but in who first completes an "effective breakout."
BTC still controls liquidity pricing power. Its breakout is more like a steering wheel: once it firmly holds a key range with volume, risk appetite will spread, and capital will dare to migrate to assets with higher elasticity. ETH acts as an amplifier—if buyers actively sweep up, it may give more aggressive signals faster than BTC. But fast does not mean true.
A spike and a breakout are two different things. Upper shadows, instant surges, and low-volume false breakouts often turn into bull traps. What’s truly worth tracking is: volume expansion, candle close confirmation, and pullback without breaking support. Breakouts without volume support are just emotional pulses; clean breakouts supported by volume can potentially change the short-term structure.
So now we can look at two lines:
BTC for direction—if it breaks first, market risk appetite heats up, and ETH follows suit;
ETH for explosion—if it breaks out with volume first, it may reverse sentiment warming and attract more capital inflows.
I’m more focused on which chart shows the first "clean breakout supported by volume." It’s not about who runs faster, but who confirms first.
$BTC $ETH, are you watching direction or elasticity?
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 The longer you survive in crypto, the clearer one lesson becomes: More coins ≠ more opportunity. Every cycle creates a new obsession — AI, memes, DeFi, gaming, L2s, RWA, DePIN… and the list never ends. But narratives rotate fast. Liquidity arrives → attention explodes → prices run → liquidity leaves. I’d rather build around assets with a stronger structural reason to exist. ₿ $BTC — My Core Position Bitcoin is still the market’s primary liquidity benchmark. After pushing above $87K earlier this ₿ $BTC short plan is underway 📉
This time I have already positioned short orders in advance, with staggered take-profit targets temporarily set at:
🎯 $82.5K
🎯 $78K
🎯 $73.5K
Whether it can "swim to the other shore" smoothly depends on whether this pullback gives the opportunity 😂
Previously, my $ETH long position was entered around $2,480 and held for about a week. Although I didn't catch the most ideal exit point, I still pocketed a few hundred dollars in profit.
This time shorting $BTC, the logic is actually very simple:
If BTC continues to fail to break through $86K–$87K and gradually falls below the demand zone near $83K, then the downside space may open further. Recently, BTC has pulled back from above $87K, and the market is currently watching the support around $83K. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF still sees continuous capital inflows, indicating that bullish and bearish forces remain divided.
Additionally, on September 25th, about $16B worth of BTC options will expire, which may significantly amplify short-term volatility.
So now, no bottom guessing, no chasing the dip.
📌 Holding $83K → Shorts need to be cautious
📌 Breaking $83K → $82.5K → $78K
📌 If further broken → $73.5K enters observation zone
The trading plan is already written, the rest is up to the price. ATR is squeezed thinner than paper, the intraday chart pulled into a straight line. This stagnant market purely tests who acts impulsively first; forcing trades only wastes principal with no meaning. Turn off the screen, go for a run in the afternoon, and let it roll on its own.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI 🔥Are entry and exit points really the most important?
Assuming you have 1000U and only use 1U per trade, obsessing over precise entry points isn't very meaningful. My view: plan your risk management in advance, and you can enter at any position.
The core is position size: if the direction is wrong, decide before placing the order whether to stop loss or add to average down. If you haven't figured it out, just trade lightly and observe.
No one can consistently predict tops and bottoms. Close your position when losses reach your limit, and take profits when satisfied. Getting 100% return on a 50U investment is already very strong; most institutions only achieve 10%~20% annualized.
Take profit and stop loss vary by individual; there is no universal fixed price. Big players with large capital can profit from BTC fluctuations of $500; ordinary traders with smaller capital can't simply copy their contract trading rhythm.
👉Do you prioritize entry points or risk control in your trading?
⚠️This is just personal trading insight and does not constitute investment advice.Let's talk about the BG hot wallet theft.
Surprisingly, the market didn't crash. BTC is still stuck oscillating between 84,000 and 87,000, altcoins are still rotating, with LTC, ZEC, and ONE all seeing gains.
The reason the market isn't falling is simple: this time the stolen funds were from a hot wallet, not a cold wallet. The official statement says user funds are safe, and losses will be covered by the protection fund. On-chain data shows a significant amount of stolen XRP, ETH, and USDT, but relative to the current market size, panic selling hasn't been triggered.
My view: short-term sentiment is affected, but the trend is intact. This rally wasn't supported by any single exchange to begin with; spot ETF funds are flowing in, shorts are covering, and regulatory pressure is actually easing. The theft is bearish news, but the market is voting with its feet, indicating the major players aren't that panicked.
The only thing to watch out for is leverage. The open interest in perpetual contracts has already reached a high of $160 billion. In this structure, any black swan event could trigger a chain of liquidations.
In short: don't get caught up in a single event's noise; just watch where the money flows. $BTC $ZEC $LTC Intraday trend review and summary: A total of ③ trades closed with 2550 points.
① Midday long at 840, evening short at 851 closed with 1080 points
② Evening short at 850, evening long at 840 closed with 1030 points
③ Night long at 838, added at 833, short at 840 closed with 450 points
The trend continued to oscillate. In the afternoon, it broke through the high of the oscillation but was blocked by the previous hour's low point resistance, then returned to the bottom of the oscillation, and broke through the bottom again to test the lower support. Overall, the intraday trend is an upward shift within the oscillation range. Long and short positions are still in a tug-of-war, and since it is Saturday, the trend is expected to maintain the oscillation pattern, with the bottom around 836 to 833 for longs, and the high around 850 to 854 for shorts.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Ethereum's staking queue is expanding. Over 36 million ETH are locked in the beacon chain contract, accounting for 30% of the total supply, while exchange balances have dropped to their lowest since 2016. This is not a retreat but a migration of chips from the circulating supply to the yield layer—the selling pressure is being tamed by time and interest.
On-chain data platform CryptoQuant highlights a subtle turning point: the total market cap of stablecoins grew 4.2% in a single month, and USDT's OTC premium turned positive during the Asian session. Historically, every liquidity inflection point precedes a price breakout. A quieter change is hidden in the Gas fees: Ethereum's daily burn volume has exceeded issuance for three consecutive weeks, making deflation the new normal again.
Capital is being repriced. BTC dominance has slipped from 58% to 54%, with funds beginning to penetrate high Beta assets; SOL ecosystem DEX trading volume increased 37% week-over-week, while MEME coins and the DePIN sector are simultaneously warming up. On-chain researcher Murphy points out that the altcoin season index has risen from 45 to 68, just one step away from a full trigger.
But rotation is not universal. Stablecoin inflows are concentrated on a few public chains, and BTC's chip accumulation has yet to convert into altcoin buying power. The early sparks are not enough to ignite the entire prairie. $BTC's exit is the prologue, $ETH's staking lock-up and $SOL's ecosystem revival are the second chapter; the real broad rally still awaits a secondary confirmation of liquidity. Bull market signals are flashing again, but between signal and realization lie discipline and patience.🚨 The market has finally chosen a direction—breaking upwards! 📈
After a few days of silence, tonight's market is clearly active:
₿ BTC has reclaimed the $85K level, bulls are starting to regain short-term control
Ξ ETH has surged to around $2.70K, retesting key resistance
◎ SOL broke through $120, with a single-day gain exceeding 4% at one point
After several days of sideways consolidation, the market has finally made a directional choice. Those who lost patience due to the volatility and frequently considered switching coins may need to reassess their strategies tonight. 😅
What’s more noteworthy is that the capital flow hasn’t completely cooled off: the US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days, totaling over $2.8B; on September 24 alone, there was about $191M in net inflows.
📌 My limit orders might miss out again.
I was originally targeting a dip-buy at $82.5K, but now it’s getting farther from the current price.
But don’t rush to FOMO after the breakout—
Whether $85K can hold, whether $87K can be reclaimed, and whether ETH/SOL’s strength can continue are the real points to watch next.
Those who patiently endured the consolidation have at least received the market’s answer. 👀
#BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #Crypto $ONE Just now, $ONE made another spike! Bears, stop giving away your positions
This spike on $ONE is basically a warning bell for the bears. If you still want to short it now, you're really going against the flow of funds.
Yesterday I reviewed its contract positions: the long-short ratio is rising, and open interest is increasing. This indicates that funds are continuously adding longs at low levels. In this structure, shorting it is very likely to get you caught on the wrong side.
Some might ask: Isn't the overall market still going to drop? Why wouldn't $ONE follow? The thing is, a market drop means most coins are under pressure, but not every coin has to fall. In every downturn, there are always a few that don't follow the usual path.
Remember the sharp drop at the end of May and early June? The market was in chaos, yet $BEAT and $H still surged fiercely.
So, when the market is weak, shorting the mainstream is safer; don't randomly short altcoins. Especially altcoins where funds have already tilted long—a single spike can wipe out short positions.
My view: If you really want to short, wait for a rebound at a high level to short $ETH; it's much more reliable than randomly shorting altcoins like $ONE. Choosing the wrong direction means even a correct judgment can get you liquidated.$XRP current price is 1.5777, with the first resistance above at the Bollinger upper band 1.6027, and support below at MA20 located at 1.5553. These two lines represent the current dividing line between bulls and bears: breaking above the upper band opens up space, while falling below MA20 indicates short-term weakness.
Comparing three coins over the same period horizontally, the strength and weakness pattern is clear at a glance. $XAI plunged 22.33% in 24h, with MA5 below MA20, MACD histogram turning negative, funding rate at -0.0653%, indicating strong bearish sentiment, a typical weak asset; $LDO rose 10.31%, RSI reached 64.3, close to the overbought zone, with a high risk of chasing the price. In contrast, $XRP rose 3.00% in 24h, a moderate and steady increase, with MA5 (1.57402) firmly above MA20 (1.55534), showing a bullish moving average alignment; RSI at 60.2 is in a healthy, slightly strong range, not overheated; MACD histogram +0.0005497 maintains bullish momentum; funding rate only +0.0026%, indicating that long leverage is not crowded and there is no sign of excessive speculation. The trading volume is 539.2M USDT, the best liquidity among the three, which is especially crucial in a volatile market.
In an environment where the Fear and Greed Index is 71 (Greedy), capital prefers to flow into assets with real depth and trend support. Could $ZEC ever surpass Bitcoin?
Back in 2010, Satoshi wrote that privacy would make Bitcoin significantly better.
But at that time, the problem remained: how to prove that a coin wasn’t double-spent without revealing transaction information.
Zcash offered a solution using ZK-proofs: the correctness of a transaction can be confirmed without revealing all its details. 
Therefore, $ZEC is not just another privacy-featured coin.
Zcash has characteristics similar to Bitcoin: a maximum supply of 21 million coins and a similar halving model.
At the beginning of 2025, $ZEC’s market cap was about 0.05% of BTC’s market cap. Now it’s approximately 1.49%.
For comparison:
ETH — 19.4% of BTC
$BNB — 6.1%
XRP — 5.7%
ZEC — 1.49%
A BNB or $XRP level would mean roughly 4x more.
The bullish scenario is supported by several factors: a small share of privacy coins in the entire crypto market, the 21-million supply cap and halving model similar to Bitcoin, as well as growing institutional interest.
But there are also serious risks.
Only about 29% of ZEC is in the shielded pool. Inflation persists, and part of the block rewards goes to developers.
In 2026, an old vulnerability was discovered. It has been fixed, and there is no evidence of its exploitation.
At the same time, privacy is developing in other ecosystems. Solutions are emerging that allow private transactions on Bitcoin and major networks.
Therefore, the main question is not whether Zcash can literally "flip" Bitcoin.
So, I’m much more interested in whether $ZEC can occupy a unique position at the intersection of three narratives: Bitcoin-like tokenomics, privacy, and potential quantum resistance.
This combination may prove stronger than the usual "privacy coin" thesis.
At the same time, flipping Bitcoin remains an extremely distant scenario and would require a huge change in relative market caps.
Therefore, the current growth of $ZEC is more logically viewed as a reassessment of its role in the crypto market, rather than proof of future superiority over BTC.After a surge, the most easily misjudged factor is not the direction, but the rhythm. You might think the market is waiting for an answer, but in fact, it is just digesting emotions. After the recent push, the market is clearly cooling down, but this is not a crash; it's the kind of quiet where "no one really wants to make the first move." BTC is holding around 80K, ETH around 2.58K, and SOL around 116. It looks like nothing is happening, but this sideways phase is often the most likely time for people to give up their chips or chase highs and get trapped. Let's start with BTC. 80K is the current emotional anchor. Only by reclaiming 84K to 85K can momentum have a chance to strengthen again; once 80K is lost, 77K becomes the next key area to watch. What’s really being traded here is not the price, but the expectation of "whether it can continue to surge." It’s worth noting that the previous rally has already priced in a lot of optimistic sentiment, so the issue now is not a lack of stories, but a lack of new incremental buying. ETH is at 2.58K; it needs to reclaim 2.65K to 2.70K above to regain control, while I’m watching 2.50K below. Its rhythm is more hesitant than BTC’s, indicating that capital’s risk appetite for altcoin leaders hasn’t fully returned. SOL is at 116, stable above 110, but to break out into a new expansion, it needs to surpass 120. Looking at these three levels together, they’re actually telling the same story: the market hasn’t weakened enough to flee, but it’s not strong enough to chase. FOMO and hesitation are currently battling.According to current OKX data, $ENA is quoted at $0.25559, up 16.72% in 24 hours, while BTC fell 0.64% in the same period. This rise roughly coincides with Ethena's announcement of a new collateral strategy. 📊 Key updates: Ethena plans to buy bStocks on Binance as spot collateral for USDe, while shorting the corresponding stock perpetual contracts to earn yield through funding rates and basis. * The risk committee framework has been approved. * The current supply of USDe is about $4.9 billion. * Official website data shows USDe supply is about $5.4 billion. The real significance of this expansion is not just the narrative of "stocks on-chain," but adding a yield source for USDe that has lower correlation with crypto market funding rates. If stock perpetual contracts have sufficient market depth, stable basis, and effective hedging execution, then when crypto market funding rates decline, USDe's yield volatility is expected to be mitigated. ⚠️ However, risks cannot be ignored: if market liquidity is insufficient or there is price deviation between spot and perpetual contracts, the new collateral strategy may increase trading, custody, and basis risks. ENA buyback mechanism and key thresholds: Although the ENA buyback mechanism has been approved by vote, the first phase requires the 14-day average supply of USDe to reach $7.5 billion. According to current The green毛 was directly liquidated. The market made a bullish trap in the evening session, with prices surging upward, looking like a real breakout, but it was just a fake breakout designed to trigger short stop losses and explode high-leverage short positions. The bearish direction for green毛 was indeed correct later on, but the entry timing was wrong, and the position size was too heavy, so it couldn't withstand this fake breakout and finally fell before dawn.
ZEC short position 【50X isolated】
Opening average price: 1,580.16
Closed volume: 20 ZEC｜Loss: -692.39 U
ETH short position 【100X cross】
Opening average price: 2,711.55
Closed volume: 56.493 ETH｜Loss: -1,838.80 U
Direction determines the ceiling, position size and timing determine profit and loss. The worst part of a fake breakout is that it clears you out early even when you are right about the direction. Under high leverage, the margin for error is extremely low; even if you are right about the direction, if the entry timing is wrong and you hold a heavy position stubbornly, it will ultimately be a loss.
$ETH $ZEC $BTC 🚨 $BTC & $ZEC｜Options expiration approaching, volatility may increase
$BTC around $84.5K | $ETH around $2.77K
On Friday, quarterly options expire in concentration, with the market facing about $18B in BTC and ETH options settlements, which may bring noticeable short-term capital rebalancing and volatility.
📉 BTC currently remains significantly above the Max Pain area shown by some mainstream data sources for expiration, around $75K–$78K; the related level for ETH is around $2.35K. Note that Max Pain is only an options structure indicator and does not necessarily mean the price will return to that level.
👀 Recently, BTC surged above $87K+, then retreated to around $84K, indicating significant high-level contention.
⚡ If short positions continue to be crowded and BTC/ETH strengthen again before expiration, a short-term squeeze may occur, further amplifying price volatility.
📊 Key points to watch next: • BTC: Can it hold above $84K again
• Resistance zone above: $86K–$87K
• ETH: Can it hold around $2.7K
• Capital flow and position changes after options expiration
No chasing the rally, no blind shorting—first watch structure and volume confirmation.
#BTC #ETH #ZEC #BTCPullback #AltRotation #CryptoOptions $ONE negative funding rate? Don't rush to go long, this is an invitation from the shorts.
With ONE's current situation, a -0.47% funding rate immediately caught many people's eyes: can you still get subsidies for going long? Aren't the shorts going to be forced to liquidate? Charge!
But the ledger doesn't lie.
Longs nominally hold 2.73 million U, the funding rate is received, but they are underwater losing over 500,000 U.
Shorts nominally hold 2.19 million U, willing to pay high holding fees without retreating, with a profit rate of 61.13%.
Got it?
That small funding subsidy is not a red envelope, it's bait.
Whoever rushes in for a few candies is fueling the shorts.
I'm not going to waste time with the longs.
For ONE, I've maxed out leverage, direction is down.
This round, I'm targeting those dazzled by the negative funding rate.
If you want to follow, weigh your position yourself. One player shared:
$BTC gave a nice signal then got slapped down
A few hours ago it just broke 84.8k with a strong candle. Thought the buyers were in control, but BTC reversed and dropped to 83.2k, leaving a long wick then pulled back to 83.8k.
A strong breakout isn’t necessarily a real breakout. A failed retest shows buyers couldn’t hold the price zone they just broke.
Bitcoin hasn’t broken structure yet, but it also hasn’t given buyers a clear enough answer.
$BTC #FedHikesBTCResilience In 2022, I studied various candlestick charts, knowledge, and market analysis every day. In the end, I lost 850,000 through contracts, spot trading, and mining machines, so I deleted all trading software. I even felt nauseous just looking at candlestick charts for a while. Until recently, a friend asked me to try quantitative trading, so I deposited 1000 USDT, but of course, there was no significant profit. Eventually, I had 980 USDT left in the account and bought Ethereum. Until recently, I saw the coin surge again, and I felt my mindset was different from before. I deeply understand that when you calm down, all market analysis is false and just seems to guide you. So I slowly tried a few contract trades again. Currently, in one month, I have grown from 1000 USDT to 3700 USDT, aiming to reach 100,000 USDT."Inflation Rate Drops Below 0.8%: Bitcoin Scarcity Triggers Macro Revaluation Against Gold"
After the most recent halving, Bitcoin $BTC's annualized inflation rate has officially dropped to about 0.8%, marking the first time in history that it is comprehensively lower than physical gold (approximately 1.5%~2%).
Macro implications of scarcity quantification evolution:
1. Hardness metric surpasses gold: The ratio of stock to annual production has further widened, meaning the dilution speed of new coins sold daily by miners against the total market cap has reached the extreme limit among global hard assets.
2. Immutable mathematical commitment: Unlike gold, which may increase annual production by improving mining technology during price surges, Bitcoin $BTC's algorithmic hashrate adjustment mechanism ensures its issuance rate will never expand due to price increases.
3. Preferred balance sheet hedge: Against the backdrop of rising global sovereign debt and long-term fiat purchasing power dilution, the ultra-low issuance rate grants it an irreplaceable macro anti-inflation premium.
When the mathematical rigidity of the algorithm overcomes the elasticity of physical mining, the valuation framework of assets is undergoing a profound historic shift. $ETH $MUBARAK I'm not trading this coin anymore because if it goes up, a lot of people are waiting to short it, and if it goes down, a lot of people are waiting to buy the dip. The only result of entering at this point is getting repeatedly shaken out. Unless there's a strong breakout signal and it rallies all the way up, I would be bullish. But shorting it now isn't safe either because this coin likes to spike sharply.🚨 $BTC — THE COST-BASIS FLIP IS NOW IN PLAY
Bitcoin has reclaimed the ~$82.2K average cost basis of U.S. spot ETF holders, a level last recovered in January.
That zone previously acted as a major ceiling before BTC eventually dropped toward $58.5K.
Now the market structure has changed:
₿ BTC: ~$84.3K
🎯 Cost Basis: ~$82.2K
🛡️ Key Support: $82K–$83K
🚀 Resistance: $86K–$87.4K
The bigger signal: ETF holders are back in profit, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another +$190.7M inflow on Sept. 24, extending the positive streak to six sessions.
If $82K holds on retests, the former resistance can become a demand zone. A clean reclaim of $87K would put the next major psychological area near $90K back on the radar.
But if BTC loses $82K decisively, the cost-basis flip would weaken and the market could return to range mode.
Resistance → Reclaim → Retest → Support.
That is the structure to watch now. 👀
#DailyOrbit #BTC #Bitcoin #ETF #CryptoA whale address that hasn't moved for 4 years just transferred out 4,500 BTC, dumping $381 million into the market. Meanwhile, another address bought 536 BTC during the decline, accumulating 2,460 BTC over 20 days. Metalpha withdrew 11,100 ETH from Binance, Bitget wallets saw outflows of 183 million involving ETH, USDT, AVAX, and other tokens. Analysts flagged this as abnormal, likely a hacker. Funds are turning over violently.
A truck was parked at the community entrance, I went out to direct the reversing, then came back to continue watching the market.
BTC current price is 83,834, stuck near the 4-hour MA20 at 83,796, KDJ shows a death cross, RSI is oscillating. Looking at the liquidation chart, there is a cluster of long liquidations waiting to be swept at 83,338, while shorts are heavily pressed between 85,000 and 86,000. Short-term bias is bearish.
For trading, enter shorts on a rebound to the 84,500–85,000 range, stop loss at 85,700, first target 82,000. Reduce position at that point, then push the rest to breakeven and watch 81,000. Avoid longs for now; wait to see support near 82,000 before considering.
Don't chase the rally; whale transfers are never bullish.
$BTC
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
@OKX星球 🔥BTC and ETH continue to grind sideways, the market is waiting for a breakout direction
This round of consolidation has lasted exactly three days.
$ETH is oscillating around 2670, surging to 2705 but unable to hold above.
I continue to hold my short position opened at 2700, took some profit the day before yesterday, added to the short again on yesterday's rebound, and today is still in the grinding phase.
$BTC is also stuck in the 84,000 range.
The highest touched 84,900, the lowest dipped to 82,800, and it has yet to choose a breakout direction.
Friends who chased longs will most likely endure the pain of the market again tonight.
$ZEC rose against the trend by 3%, pulling from 1500 to 1550. The characteristics of a speculative coin are fully displayed; while the main market consolidates sideways, it independently moves. But the sustainability of this independent rally is questionable, and the pullback speed is equally fast.
Recently, there was a continuous short squeeze that made many doubt their lives.
These days have entered a sideways tug-of-war, making both bulls and bears uncomfortable.
No rush to close positions for now, continue holding and waiting.
Before the direction is confirmed, the market remains in a consolidation pattern.
As long as the bulls are not completely extinguished, the bears will not stop. Hold patiently and wait for the choice.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 Find a new angle to support the view: the current market is not a bear market rebound
┈➤ The current market is different from May
As shown: the upper pane is the altcoin market cap divided by the total crypto market cap excluding stablecoins, which is the altcoin ratio excluding stablecoins (hereinafter referred to as the altcoin ratio).
The lower pane is BTC.
In May this year, the altcoin ratio and BTC basically moved in opposite directions, meaning when BTC rose, altcoins barely followed.
But now, it is clearly different from the bear market rebound in May. Overall, the altcoin ratio and BTC trend upwards synchronously, which means altcoins are starting to recover, and market sentiment and funds are developing in an optimistic direction.
Therefore, the current market cannot be considered a rebound within a bear market.
┈➤ Focus on oil prices
Brother Feng has always believed that the conditions for a bull market are insufficient, mainly due to uncertainties involving the US-Iran relationship, the Strait, and oil prices.
Currently, there is a slight breakthrough in US-Iran relations, and Iran is becoming proactive. The next focus is on oil prices.
Of course, US Treasury bonds also have an impact, as their expansion is too rapid. Today oil prices fell, but the 30-year US Treasury yield still rose significantly. It should be noted that short-term US Treasury yields also fell intraday, indicating that the rise in Treasury yields is not due to rate hike expectations but rather a relatively pessimistic long-term outlook on US Treasuries.
Overall, Brother Feng's view: still cautiously expect volatility, altcoins are starting to activate but will fluctuate along with BTC.