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$ONE is pulling up.
My judgment is correct.
$ONE is indeed not suitable for shorting anymore.
Shorting is quite risky.
——————————————————
I analyzed its data a couple of days ago.
I found that a lot of funds are going long.
Generally speaking,
when a large amount of funds are going long, shorting is not suitable.
I want to make a point here:
Not suitable for shorting does not mean suitable for going long.
Because many coins will have wicks up and down after falling to a certain level,
so actually neither long nor short is suitable.
However,
I am not confident to say it is not suitable for going long,
so I can only say it is not suitable for shorting.
My main purpose is to remind some bears.
——————————————————
I don't want to pay attention to $ONE for now,
because I don't really like trading coins that have spot trading.
Most coins with spot trading tend to have a slow decline with wicks,
which is both torturous and painful to trade.
Right now, I am mainly focusing on mainstream coins,
because I believe the market is about to crash.
The current market situation is very bad,
and there is a high chance of large wicks appearing.Those targeting the big cluster below the lows seem to have forgotten how large the cluster around 140K was after price broke the HTF uptrend and shifted into a downtrend.
This is the same thing. Price has just broken the HTF downtrend and shifted into an uptrend, yet most are still targeting that cluster. It won't get taken.
Price isn't going below 60K and likely won't go below 70K again. 🃏 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H
BTC anchors the market structure. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta participation.
Price + volume + OI remain the core confirmation layer.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC confirm → 🚀 Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC diverge → ⚠️ Narrow Strength
Participation must validate structure. 🔥$BTC 🔥
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta demand.
If activity fails to follow price, the structure becomes less convincing.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC strengthen Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC weaken Divergence#FedHikesBTCResilience #USTreasuryYieldsRise #StablecoinRulesAdvance This load-bearing structure is fundamentally unqualified—but during market panic sell-offs, no one ever looks at the rebar grade.
The current position of $ATH is like a project mistakenly judged as a dangerous building: it only dropped slightly by 0.44% in 24H, indicating the main framework hasn't collapsed, just a few pieces of the exterior wall have fallen off. However, the short-term RSI has already dropped to 31.1, approaching the oversold zone, which is equivalent to local stress concentrating at a critical point. More importantly, the price is already stuck below the short-term Bollinger Band lower band, deviating by about -6%, a typical "foundation sinking" signal—the lower band is at -0.1%, the upper band at +1.7%, and the bandwidth is compressed to the extreme, with the reversal window being cast and formed.
From a mid-term perspective, the Bollinger Band position is at 25%, the lower band still supports a +2.4% distance, and the upper band ceiling is at +7.3%. Translated into construction terms: the building's elastic layer hasn't been breached yet, and the main structure still has room to rebound. The long-term RSI is 48.2, neutral to slightly weak, indicating the blueprint hasn't changed, only that the construction team has temporarily withdrawn.
My operational logic is simple—the real architect never bottoms out amid the sound of collapse but enters when the rebar is exposed and the formwork is reset. The current price still has a -3.5% sinking space to my entry point; I will wait for this floor slab to fully bottom out and the load to be released before erecting the frame.
📈 Long:
Entry: Current price -3.5% (waiting for foundation consolidation)
Take Profit 1: +5.4% (first horizontal beam)
Take Profit 2: +7.3% (reaching the mid-term upper band ceiling)
Stop Loss: -13.2% (load-bearing wall breached, dismantle immediately)
The fault tolerance of this blueprint isn't pretty; the stop loss range is nearly twice that of Take Profit 2, so the position must be allocated according to a cantilever structure—light load, slow pouring, layered acceptance. Once the price retraces to the position and RSI forms a golden cross at a low level, that is the moment of concrete initial setting.
At this point, it's not a start order but waiting for the acceptance report.Circle has launched a new chain called Arc, with BlackRock and Visa collectively becoming nodes
On September 16, Circle's Arc mainnet went live, and this is a much bigger deal than it appears on the surface.
The USDC issuer no longer rents someone else's chain but built its own Wall Street clearing pipeline. The founding validator list includes: BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, DTCC, ICE, Standard Chartered, SBI, Sumitomo, MoneyGram, Galaxy... 12 nodes, all regulated financial institutions.
This is not a decentralized utopia; it's an on-chain privileged network where "whoever produces the block sets the rules." Arc uses USDC directly as gas, has a built-in foreign exchange engine, and supports optional privacy.
BlackRock even plans to deploy the BUIDL tokenized fund on Arc, allowing institutional investors to subscribe and redeem directly on-chain.
Finance blogger @LingJingShuZhi comments: "Arc is essentially a VIP channel built by traditional finance on blockchain. Whether retail investors can access it remains to be seen, but the direction is clear—RWA and stablecoins are the next trillion-dollar track."
USDC circulation has already reached $75.2 billion, and the ecosystem potential of this chain is vast.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC I’ll make this $BTC range simple for you all.
If we lose $83K, which is the local range support and May high pivot, we’re heading back to $81K to sweep the liquidity at the breakout point.
If we reclaim $85.2K as support instead, the $87K highs will be next.
Those are your trading pivots.
Because until one of those happens, this range is going to do what ranges do best. BTC cools off, $83,000 becomes the short-term decisive point
Crypto market sentiment is cooling down. $BTC no longer continues the strong rally of the past few days; the price has entered a sideways tug-of-war, making short-term trading significantly more difficult. At this time, staying out of the market is not necessarily negative, but rather a form of discipline.
The bulls were strong and unstoppable the past two days, as if riding the trend would easily make money. But yesterday, a spike down to $83,000 quickly pulled optimistic sentiment back to caution. The market begins to ask: will it happen again today? If there is a pullback, where can one buy in? Or should one simply wait for a rebound at a high level to short?
In my view, $83,000 is a key observation level. It is not just a round number but more like a psychological defense line between bulls and bears. If the price effectively breaks below it, accompanied by a death cross of moving averages, the bearish signal will be stronger, and opening short positions following the trend would be more reasonable than blindly bottom-fishing. Conversely, if support repeatedly holds near $83,000, the market may continue to consolidate sideways, using time to digest the panic.
Currently, the worst thing is chasing highs and selling lows. The bull-bear logic is switching, and whether rotation has started still needs confirmation. Rather than guessing the bottom, wait for signals: break the key level to short, hold support to consider going long. Today, focus on the gain or loss of $83,000 and whether volume supports it. In trading, it is better to miss out than to make mistakes.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
(For market observation only, not investment advice.)Many people chase the top gainer in the 24h increase list, which is a typical misconception — a large increase does not equal high relative strength; the key is to see if it is truly leading within the same sector. $AERO This round's +23.61% gain is very clear when compared within the DEX/DeFi sector: during the same period, $UNI only gained +3.49%, and UNI's MACD histogram is still at -0.01165, indicating a bearish structure, with an RSI of only 50.6, which is a weak follow-up; $SYN is even down -2.48%, with MA5<MA20 bearish alignment, and RSI 41.7 not even reaching neutral. In other words, AERO is the only variety in the sector showing a bullish trend, with MA5=0.8434 having crossed above MA20=0.7867, and RSI 78.1 entering overbought territory but combined with MACD histogram expansion of +0.004592, indicating strength rather than exhaustion.
Operationally, it is preferable to buy on pullbacks rather than chase highs. The current price of 0.8566 is close to the Bollinger upper band at 0.890749, so chasing long directly has a poor risk-reward ratio. Entry reference is 0.8320-0.8450, near MA5, which is a resonance point of trend support and short-term moving averages. Take profit 1 is at 0.8900, corresponding to the Bollinger upper band resistance; take profit 2 is at 0.9280, the measured extension target after breaking the upper band. Stop loss is set at 0.7980; breaking below MA20 means the bullish structure fails. The funding rate of +0.0050% is neutral, with no overheating signs, and there is still room in market sentiment.Monthly open pivot approaching.
6/7 times, $BTC has seen a pump around the monthly open, usually because PA was bearish heading into it.
So if we dump into October, I’d expect a push higher afterwards. If we pump into it instead, I’d be far more cautious.$BTC
126K in 2027...
Those targeting the big cluster below the lows seem to have forgotten how large the cluster around 140K was after price broke the HTF uptrend and shifted into a downtrend.
This is the same thing. Price has just broken the HTF downtrend and shifted into an uptrend, yet most are still targeting that cluster. It won't get taken.
Price isn't going below 60K and likely won't go below 70K again. 🃏A: Bro, I’m about to break. Started with $100 aiming for $100,000, worked hard for a month, ended up losing $30. This week shorting just knocked me back to square one.
B: Shorted what?
A: ZEC, ETH, altcoins, shorted them all, got hit one by one. At most, I had a dozen short positions open simultaneously, bulls kept surging wave after wave, I could only keep cutting losses repeatedly.
B: Didn’t hold on?
A: At first, I thought it was just a pullback, so I held on hoping it would drop. Later I realized, it’s not that the market didn’t give chances, I was just using bear market thinking in a bull market. Lost all profits from three months and started eating into principal. Monthly returns once hit 80%, now just looking at it makes me want to cry.
B: Which hurt the most?
A: ZEC. If I had admitted my mistake earlier, I wouldn’t have lost so much. The profits I made later from going long all went to cover margin on short positions. I still didn’t learn, went to short ONE again.
B: Bull markets cure all kinds of stubbornness. Just because it’s risen a lot doesn’t mean it has to fall.
A: Yeah, now I feel not losing is already good. In such a crazy market, staying alive and at the table is more important than anything. The journey from $100 to $100,000 isn’t over yet, but the next step isn’t making money, it’s learning to preserve capital first. 🔥 The most interesting thing is not whether the market is bullish, but why everyone is bullish yet unwilling to keep putting money in?
🟠 $BTC: Currently, the weighted long position ratio remains high, but the nominal amount continues to decline, indicating a clear divergence between bullish sentiment and actual funds. Simply put, the "direction is bullish, but positions are more cautious."
🔵 $ETH: Funds have also not shown significant expansion. After previous large fluctuations, some funds may prefer to wait for the price to return to a more comfortable level rather than chase during high volatility.
🟣 $SOL: Its high volatility and high elasticity make funds more sensitive. As long as the macro environment is not completely clear, wanting to be bullish and daring to take heavy positions are two different things.
🟢 This is actually a signal worth paying attention to in the current market: ETF funds are still absorbing, and prices have not obviously broken key structures, but the nominal amount of smart money has not increased correspondingly. Whether they are waiting for opportunities or managing risk still needs to be verified by subsequent capital flows.
🟡 So simply put now: don’t just look at the "long position ratio," but also see "whether new money is coming in." The market’s true attitude is often not just shouting bullish, but whether the next batch of funds actually enters the market.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Stopped placing orders, continuing to review the trades. Couldn't hold onto the long profits, nor the short profits. Watching the profits repeatedly give back is really painful, falling into the quagmire of stubbornly holding onto floating gains and stubbornly resisting floating losses. My self-control is still not good enough; I keep hoping to get rich all at once, completely underestimating the market's volatility. Plus, my trading frequency exceeded my own limits. Although overall profitable this time, looking at the trades over the past two or three days, it was a complete failure. Will continue reviewing and try again after some time!ETH, Sandisk, ZEC 9.26 Overview
ETH is reported at about $2,688, up 3% this week and 7% this month. It has broken through a downtrend line lasting over a year, but the $2,800 level was resisted twice within a week. A volume-backed close above $2,807 would confirm the breakout, while a drop below $2,627 could lead to a new round of lower highs. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net inflows for five consecutive days, with BlackRock's ETHA accumulating net purchases exceeding $13 billion.
Sandisk (SNDK) closed at $1,777.80 on September 25, up 1.38%. Rosenblatt initiated a "Buy" rating with a target price of $2,400, based on the core logic that AI is reshaping NAND from commoditized storage into a key component of AI infrastructure. The company has signed long-term agreements with the world's top 8 NAND customers, locking in about 65% of production for fiscal year 2028.
ZEC is currently around $1,548, having plunged 4.4% from $1,620 within 4 hours. Grayscale's ZCSH asset size has surpassed $1 billion, but excluding DCG physical swaps, external new funds are only about $200 million, signaling a need for caution regarding the quality of the signal. The $1,428 level is critical support, while the $1,585–$1,640 range has dense trapped positions.
This is only a technical overview and does not constitute investment advice.$FIL retail investors collectively bullish can only create emotional hype, which does not equal a price increase.
The essence of FIL's stagnant rise: bullish sentiment is sufficient, but incremental off-exchange funds are lacking; there is huge selling pressure from existing low-cost chips; all positive news is anticipated, and paid orders have basically not exceeded expectations; there are shortcomings in token demand transmission.
Unless real paid storage orders continue to explode and form sustained genuine buying, it will most likely remain volatile, continuing to be under pressure after repeated pulses. #垃圾 🔥 BTC surged then pulled back again, but altcoins did not collectively dive, this market divergence is worth close attention!
🟠 $BTC: Pulled from 83387 to 85258 around midnight, then retreated to near 84000, currently around 82000 remains an important support. The short-term key is not a single surge, but whether it can hold steady after the pullback. If support holds, a subsequent volume breakout is possible; previous highs and around 89000 remain worth watching.
🔵 $ETH: High touched 2742, getting closer to the previous high of 2807, currently oscillating near 2700. ETH is relatively strong short-term; whether 2700 can sustain support is a crucial observation point for judging future momentum.
🟣 Altcoins: NEAR, ENA, LINK, PUMP, etc. are active; when BTC pulled back, there was no obvious collective dive, indicating that risk appetite among funds is still present, and high-elasticity sectors remain in focus.
🟢 But strength does not mean no risk; the faster the rise, the more caution is needed against a sharp pullback. Whether a breakout can be confirmed by a retest is more important than simply chasing a big bullish candle.
🟡 So simply put now: BTC watches 82000, ETH watches 2700, altcoins watch rotation. First watch support, then wait for confirmation; the hotter the market, the more important it is to control position size.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Friday Night Session Snapshot: Five Brothers, Different Fates
$BTC holds steady near 85,000, pulling back from 83,672 with effective support at 83,500. The shadow of rate hikes remains, but key levels haven't broken, and the price bounced back sharply. 85,000 is the short-term threshold; only after surpassing it will 86,000 be targeted.
The real highlight is $ENA: 0.2227, up 8.44%, about 14% over two days. The stablecoin yield narrative is heating up; 0.22 has turned from resistance into a springboard, with a breakout target of 0.25.
$ASTER closed at 0.7047, up 2.85%. After a 5.18% drop the previous day, 0.68 held as support, and the DEX followed the market recovery. As long as contracts remain active, the fee logic persists.
$HYPE lags behind at 91.7, down 1.17%. While the market bounced back, it did not; 90 is the critical support—if lost, look for 88; fortunately, buybacks provide a floor, so deep drops have support.
$SNDK is the weakest at 1770, down 3.29%. Cooling AI hardware combined with rate hike expectations; if 1750 breaks, look down to 1700.
In short: BTC is resilient, ENA is soaring, ASTER is recovering, HYPE is under pressure, and SNDK is taking hits. The market shows both warmth and chill; keep some room in your positions.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 There isn't a single asset in the entire watchlist that has even touched the threshold. When there are no opportunities, holding cash is the best bulletproof vest; forcing trades in a bad situation is just asking for trouble. Wrapping up early today.
$AVAX $LINK $SEI $BTC 🔥
BTC sets the rhythm. ETH measures breadth, while ZEC tracks higher-beta demand.
If activity fails to follow price, the structure becomes less convincing.
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC strengthen Expansion
BTC holds + ETH/ZEC weaken Divergence#FedHikesBTCResilience #CostcoBeatsMicronNext #StablecoinRulesAdvance BTC cools off, $83,000 becomes the short-term decisive point
Crypto market sentiment is cooling down. $BTC no longer continues the strong attack of the past few days; the price has entered a sideways tug-of-war, making short-term trading significantly more difficult. At this time, staying out of the market is not necessarily negative but rather a form of discipline.
In the past two days, the bulls were full of momentum, as if they could make money just by following the trend. But yesterday, a spike hit $83,000, quickly pulling optimistic sentiment back to caution. The market begins to ask: will it happen again today? If there is a pullback, where can one buy? Or should one simply wait for a rebound at a high level to short?
In my view, $83,000 is a key observation level. It is not just a round number but more like a psychological defense line between bulls and bears. If the price effectively breaks below it, accompanied by a death cross of moving averages, the bearish signal will be stronger, and it would be more reasonable to open short positions following the trend rather than blindly bottom-fishing. Conversely, if support repeatedly holds around $83,000, the market may continue to consolidate sideways, using time to digest panic.
Currently, the worst thing is chasing highs and selling lows. The bull-bear logic is switching, and whether rotation has started still needs confirmation. Rather than guessing the lowest point, wait for signals: follow shorts after breaking the key level, and talk about longs only after support holds. Today, focus on the gain or loss of $83,000 and whether volume cooperates. In trading, it is better to miss out than to make mistakes.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
(This is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice.) 2026年3月底，我第一次真正踏进币圈。那时候的我，对这个市场几乎什么都不懂。 K线看不明白，资金费率不知道是什么，爆仓价格更是一头雾水。每天看着BTC、ETH涨涨跌跌，感觉自己像是站在赌场门口，知道里面的钱很多，却不知道该怎么把钱拿出来。 我最开始其实没想赚多少钱。我只是想着，既然年轻，总得试试看。 于是我拿着自己攒下来的一点钱，开了交易所账户，开始进各种群、看各种博主、各种所谓的“老师”。然后，我在一个名为成长学院的新手群里面认识了杨哥。 一开始，我真的觉得自己运气很好。刚开始的时候，他给我的感觉和那些满嘴“稳赚”“百倍币”“梭哈”的人完全不一样。他说话比较有条理，也会讲一些行情逻辑。什么时候可能上涨，什么时候要注意回调，哪里是压力位，哪里可能出现反弹。 最关键的是，他判断确实挺准。至少在我这个什么都不懂的新手眼里，他简直像是开了透视。有几次我跟着他的思路做，真的赚到了钱。赚得虽然不算特别多，但是那种感觉非常可怕。 因为你第一次发现：原来真的有人可以判断行情。从那以后，我对他的信任开始一It has been 27 hours already, and withdrawals are still not allowed.
There is already a 20-30% discount for off-exchange coin purchases.
September 24, 18:31 UTC (around 2:31 AM on September 25 Beijing time): Anomalous transfers were detected in some hot wallets, with the final confirmed amount involved approximately $387.5 million (initial estimate was about $351.6 million, later supplemented with ZEC, TRX, etc.)Yesterday, a retail investor who missed the chance to buy BTC at a low price shared a monologue.
I originally placed an order around 81800, hoping to catch BTC as it dropped. Later, the market really went down, hitting a low of 82812, just a thousand points away from my position. It’s not false to say I was tempted at that moment, even a bit regretful, feeling like I missed the low buy again.
But looking at it today, not having the order filled isn’t entirely bad. The market didn’t continue to drop; instead, it slowly recovered from 82800 and is now back near 84800. The 1-hour BOLL middle band reached 84129, with resistance first at 85000, then above that the previous high pressure zone at 86600-87000.
This kind of market is the most torturous: when you miss the catch, you feel left out; when it rises back, you can’t help but want to chase. This time, I’ll hold back. If 81800 didn’t fill, it didn’t fill; not every trade is a train you have to catch.
Sometimes, the money you didn’t make and the money you didn’t lose are two completely different things.
$BTC $BTC
Backtesting is complete. Now let's see if my scenario will play out.
The price just surged upward again, briefly breaking above the high of the LTF range and retesting the gray area.
After sweeping those highs, BTC was immediately rejected from my level and continued to close back inside the range.
Therefore, this currently looks more like a false breakout/liquidity grab rather than a sustainable breakout to me.
If the price starts moving down from here now, I will look for a sweep of the lows near $82.8K, potentially followed by a continuation into the area where I am interested in longs, between $81K and $82K. Bitcoin may have just done something NEVER seen before.
If the June low was the cycle bottom, $BTC bottomed without touching the CVDD for the first time in its history.
Every previous major cycle bottom reached this level.
Is the Bitcoin cycle changing?👇$CORE $CORE CORE 9.25 Evening X (Twitter) Updates
1. Official X Evening Updates
Today, the official CORE account did not release any major product announcements, focusing mainly on ecosystem retweets and follow-up content from overseas roadshows:
1. Retweeted posts from overseas partner organizations, reiterating that discussions with US banks are ongoing, focusing on BTC-Fi compliant integration and institutional fund custody solutions, with no formal signing or landing announcements yet.
2. Retweeted ecosystem developer updates: Iterative updates of BTC native staking ecosystem DApps, opening new test interactions, continuously laying the groundwork for SatPay's preliminary development.
3. Official community admins replied to overseas user questions in the comments, addressing token unlocking and mainnet performance concerns, emphasizing that the roadmap pace remains unchanged but did not provide a definite launch date for SatPay.
2. Overseas influencer discussions on X platform (community division is huge) #OKXPlanet Now is not the stage for chasing gains; it is a tug-of-war period of washing out positions and strategic play. Are you also waiting for that volume breakout candlestick? BTC is grinding back and forth around 84400, with 85000 above like a thin lid and 83000 below propped up by some support. The market looks calm, but the derivatives side is not easy. In this narrow range oscillation, open interest usually doesn't drop significantly, indicating neither bulls nor bears have left; both are just waiting for the other side to make a mistake. If the funding rate remains neutral to slightly positive, it means the bulls are still paying to hold, but the sentiment hasn't reached a frenzy; this structure is actually quite subtle. My own feeling is that the market is trading a very short-term expectation: breaking above 85000 and holding there would clearly strengthen the short-term structure, and the chasing gains sentiment might heat up quickly, with ETH and altcoins also catching a breather. But note, this is not a trend confirmation, just the first step of sentiment repair. If it can't even touch 85000, it means buyers are not in a hurry, and the consolidation period will be extended. Conversely, if it falls back below 83000, don't rush to catch the dip. From the derivatives perspective, this position is prone to two types of squeezes: one is long stop-loss hunting, the other is short-term profit-taking by shorts. What really needs to be observed is whether there is volume on the breakdown; if there is no volume, it might just be a shakeout; if there is a volume breakdown, the short-term structure will become fragile, and altcoins usually experience larger pullbacks because capital tends to favor BTC and stablecoins more. Bullish path: holding above 85000, moderate funding rate, no explosive increase in open interest, indicating healthy turnover and room to run. Potential risk: false breakout followed by a quick fall, or 24.5 Billion in Privacy Coins: Not a Broad Rally, but a Solo Show by ZEC
On the morning of September 24, $BTC fell below $82,000, and $ETH weakened in sync. $ZEC also couldn't completely defy the trend, retreating from around $1,550 to about $1,500, but its pullback was still smaller than BTC's.
Looking at a 5-month span, the gap is even more striking: the total market cap of privacy coins rose from $11.97 billion to $36.51 billion, a net increase of $24.54 billion, about a 205% rise. But this $24.5 billion was not shared by everyone. ZEC alone accounted for $20.27 billion, capturing over 80% of the increase; XMR added $4.33 billion. Together, they total about $24.6 billion, even exceeding the sector's net increase, indicating that other privacy coins not only missed out but their market caps actually shrank.
There are catalysts behind ZEC: the SEC ended related investigations in January, ZCSH started trading on August 25, and on September 8, DCG exchanged about $100 million worth of ZEC for ZCSH shares. The combination of capital, narrative, and regulatory expectations has pushed it to be the sole protagonist in the privacy sector.
The price also tells the story: ZEC rose from $319 to around $1,500, while XMR went from $330 to $555. The former is a revaluation, the latter more of a follow-up.
Therefore, this is not an evenly distributed privacy coin rally, but a unipolar rally led by ZEC. When BTC falls, ZEC also pulls back, but over the 5-month ledger, among the $24.5 billion increase, the one truly benefiting is only ZEC.
#ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 Will the two major storage positives collide in the US stock market this Monday?
Will both SK Hynix and MU break out this time?
1. First, let's look at the positives for SK Hynix
Solidigm is reportedly planning an IPO as early as 2027, with a potential valuation reaching up to $150 billion.
Seeing this number, my first reaction is: is this a bit too optimistic? (150 billion is no small amount)
But from another perspective, if the market is really willing to give this valuation, it means the imagination space for SSD and NAND assets has been significantly raised. Don't let me down again.
2. Next, let's look at the positives for MU
Micron will release its earnings report on September 30. The previously given guidance of $50 billion revenue and about 86% gross margin is already very high.
So what I want to see now is: after SK Hynix raises its valuation expectations, can MU's earnings report meet these expectations?
If MU can continue to exceed expectations, then the logic for the storage sector will be more complete.
To summarize:
Waiting for Monday's storage sector: first look at SK Hynix's valuation expectations, then see if MU's earnings report can meet these expectations, and finally see if SanDisk $SNDK can continue to keep up. (I want to buy a bit of all, haha
(SanDisk is not the main dish, but its performance can actually show whether this wave of storage sentiment has spread.)
$SKHY $MU $SNDK Which major coin is the strongest today?
Just woke up after the holiday, news of an exchange hack pushed BTC down to 83524, right into my order zone. Bought long at 83500, came back at noon to find it bounced back to 84500, closed the position, lunch money secured. Got itchy hands tonight, shorted a bit, still holding now.
$BTC current price 84447, up 0.88%. Tested high at 85205, low at 83524. Holding 83500 means the rebound can continue; if it can't break 85200, it will keep consolidating.
$ETH current price 2716, up 2.27%. Back above 2700, stronger than BTC in the short term. Support at 2650, next target 2750.
$SOL current price 120.7, up 5.6%. The strongest today, pulled straight from 114 to 121. Chasing highs is risky, a pullback near 118 is safer.
$OKB current price 120.9, up 1.98%. Range between 118.5 and 121.1, slow but steady. If 119 holds, it will keep consolidating; breaking 121 opens up space.
Tonight's conclusion: BTC sets the tone, ETH strengthens, SOL charges ahead, OKB follows the pack. For review only, not investment advice.
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Midday Review: One Red, One Green, Don't Loosen Risk Control
At midday, I glanced over my positions; the market has its ups and downs, so I need to keep a steady mindset.
$SOL is 20x long, $LTC is 10x short, currently one red and one green. The long position caught the rebound, the short was pulled up, overall barely breaking even. With high leverage, don't add to winning positions, don't stubbornly hold losing ones.
Short positions on $XRP and $ADA are more passive, floating losses are expanding. Small coins spike frequently; holding against the trend is mentally exhausting. Fortunately, the positions aren't heavy, preparing to find opportunities to reduce.
Leverage trading means profits and losses come from the same source. Don't get carried away when winning, don't gamble when losing, risk control always comes first. There are many market opportunities; survival is key to the next trade.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
⚠️For review and communication only, not investment advice#高利率下，黄金还能走多远？
In a high interest rate environment, the space for gold is a tug-of-war between the suppression of real interest rates and two major forces: central bank gold purchases and concerns over the US dollar's credit.
Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset; high real interest rates mean the opportunity cost of holding gold rises, theoretically suppressing gold price gains. This is the most critical short-term constraint. As long as US core inflation remains sticky and the Federal Reserve maintains "higher rates for longer," with US Treasury real yields running high, gold is unlikely to experience a sustained, unilateral rally and will most likely fluctuate within a range.
However, this round of gold has new structural support: global central banks continue strategic gold purchases, not targeting short-term profits and losses, persistently allocating on dips to hedge dollar reserve risks, which underpins the gold price floor; combined with the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and debt scale, the market worries about the long-term credit of the US dollar. This force can partially offset the negative impact of high interest rates, so gold has not fallen as deeply as in previous rate hike cycles. When geopolitical conflicts intensify, safe-haven buying will also temporarily push prices up.
Regarding market rhythm, the short-term focus is whether real interest rates can continue to rise. If inflation rebounds again, the Fed restarts rate hikes, and US Treasury yields continue to rise, gold will face pressure and pull back; if inflation slowly declines and the market begins to price in rate cuts, with real interest rates peaking and falling, gold will open up a larger upside.
In summary: during high interest rate phases, gold struggles to enter a strong bull market and mainly oscillates; the height of the rally depends on whether central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks can outweigh the suppression from real interest rates; a true trend market requires real interest rates to turn downward.#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Everyone says they're bullish, so why is no one willing to add more positions?
Today, I was a bit stunned when I saw the smart money data: the weighted longs for BTC, ETH, and SOL are quite high. But then I noticed the total nominal amount is actually dropping. It feels like a table full of people saying "this dish is good," but no one wants to order another plate.
Optimists might say this is healthy. The market just went through a big swing a few days ago, so not chasing the highs and holding positions might mean they're waiting for a cheaper entry point. ETFs are still seeing inflows, the external faucet hasn't been turned off; as long as the price doesn't break key lows, staying in the market itself is a stance.
But I also wonder, what if it's not "waiting for opportunity," but "fear of risk"? If people were really certain, why are the nominal amounts for BTC, ETH, and SOL all decreasing? Maybe interest rates, the dollar, and macro news are making everyone hesitant to go all in at once.
So: being bullish doesn't mean daring to add positions in $BTC $ETH. The truest sentiment in the market might not be what people say, but whether the next batch of money actually enters.剛到隱私鏈 Zano 說 Gateway Addresses 出了脹漏洞，沒別的辦法，要把鏈上大 24 小時史整段回滾。官方叫大家先別動 ZANO 跟 Confidential Assets，損失承諾賠，但回滾高度、修版、賠償流、到底多印了多少——項都還沒放。 Gateway Addresses 是 8 月底 Hard Fork 6 才上的，本意是交易所、接一條好接的帳戶型餘額。在這扇門反來成了要擦掉一天記錄的理由。 先停手、再等數字。回滾之後，那一天裡正常成交怎麼對帳，大也會吵一陣子My ETH short thesis is playing out: under the same market pressure, ETH is showing weaker relative strength than BTC. My view right now: • Higher Treasury yields = pressure • Rising Fed hike expectations = risk-off • Recent crypto security losses = added uncertainty • Large ETH holdings from the incident could become future selling pressure BTC is holding better, but the broader market still looks fragile. ⚠️ One thing I’m watching closely: crypto has gone unusually long without a major volatili$SOL waited all night and knew it was going to surge today, confidently shorted, but ended up losing 1000 USD and ran away. Shouldn't have opened such a large position. Just as I was about to sleep, a sharp drop came. Hope I wake up to a good result. If it continues to break through, then I have no choice but to admit defeat and exit.
Short trading logic: The bottom doubled from 60 to 120. Planning to short between 120-140, a short-term short. Today I looked at the market, daily divergence, hourly divergence plus a death cross. Even knowing it would rise after the divergence and wipe out short stop losses, I couldn't resist entering early. In the end, I couldn't withstand the pressure, feared it would rise to 140, closed 50% of the position, took some loss and exited, leaving half with a stop loss at the previous high. If it loses, then exit. Personally predicting 117, 107, 97 for taking profit depending on the situation. If it falls below 90, I will buy in full position without hesitation. If it holds at 120 or 110, I will buy in small positions. Personally analyzing that this wave probably won't be one-sided, it may range sideways for a few weeks or months, then a big one-sided move, with a small chance of breaking below 60. Will watch the market then. Going to sleep! Bitget can definitely raise compensation funds by selling BTC over-the-counter, which can reduce the direct impact on the market; however, whether disposed of on-exchange or off-exchange, the market will worry about potential selling pressure. Therefore, before the issue is completely resolved, BTC will indeed face some pressure to continue a strong rally in the short term, and the market is more likely to choose to wait and see. The real test comes after the drop. OKB, HYPE, and BICO all retraced, but each gave a different response: one still stands on a key line, one fell back from a new high to find support, and one returned to a low-level range.
$OKB is currently around 119. The 117–118 area must be held now; if maintained, there's a chance to reclaim 120 and then test 123–125; if 117 breaks, the short-term strength is overturned.
$HYPE is currently around 92.5. After a new high at 98.04, it retraced, with continuous support near 92. Resistance is first at 94–94.5 above; only breaking above that can we talk about 96–98; if 91.5 is lost, profit-taking may continue to push it down.
$BICO is currently around 0.0216. The 0.0207–0.021 range must not be broken; upward, it must first pass 0.0223–0.0224, and only recovering 0.023 can it be considered improved.
Summary: Watch 117 for OKB, 92 for HYPE, and 0.0224 for BICO. Among retracements, the one who first regains lost ground is the real strong one.
#Anthropic加快IPO进程，AI估值进入验证期
#布油重返100美元，特朗普称选后将下跌 MPLX current price is 0.338460, don't touch it. The chart data source points to PHA, the price is lagging, the system shows 0.0847 which is four times off from the current price. Liquidity is dried up, depth is zero, this is a zombie asset. ZAMA is actually rising, up 42% in 24 hours, a historical high of 0.085, market cap 210 million, trading volume 110 million, driven by product updates, confidential vault expansion plus confidential incentives. The total market cap is 3.58 trillion, weekly increase 4.16%, but 24-hour volume is shrinking, sentiment is greedy but funds are selective.
Just finished the half box of leftover boxed meal from last night in the security booth, put down the chopsticks and saw this data.
MPLX has no entry value at all, arbitrage and speculation are prohibited. There is no defensive point to talk about because there is simply no opposing position. If you want to play, focus on ZAMA, you can buy on the pullback to the 0.078 to 0.080 range, take profit at 0.095, set defense at 0.072. Keep your position light, altcoins can spike sharply anytime. The shrinking volume in the market indicates weak willingness to chase highs, don't be greedy.
$MPLX
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
@OKX星球 $ETH could be a key link when the market shifts from defense to risk expansion. When $BTC stabilizes, the relative strength of $ETH will help assess whether capital is moving away from the leading asset to seek new opportunities. $SOL continues to represent the high beta group but with greater volatility. Therefore, watch ETH/BTC, SOL/ETH, volume, and OI instead of just looking at the percentage gains. Data must lead emotions. Wait for more data before increasing risk. ETH/BTC and SOL/ETH are both improving well.$ONDO Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, but this morning I realized it was completely unnecessary concern.😮💨
Before going to bed last night, I was still hesitating whether to reduce some positions. At the 0.4067 level, it neither fell further nor rose decisively; funds quietly entered, bottoming out without breaking the level. In the end, I didn’t change anything and kept my original position.
This morning when I opened the market, it immediately surged to 0.5399, with an unrealized profit of +1636.34%. The wait was worth it; this gain feels great, and everyone on board must have woken up smiling.✨
I took profit on 70% and moved the remaining 30% to break-even to protect it. When in profit, the worst thing is to fidget and trade back and forth.
Don’t get greedy when profitable, don’t despair during pullbacks. Hold as long as the trend is intact; if it breaks, exit—don’t fall in love with the market.
Waiting for the next move; I’ll notify you immediately when a new structure emerges.
$LAB $ZEC 140U Challenge 10000U｜Day 169
Initial Principal: 140 USDT
Current Total Assets: 16308.54 CNY
Today's Profit: -180.05 (-1.09%)
BTC｜Current Price 83769.1
Key Resistance: 84856.6
Key Support: 79216.6
After peaking at 87374, the market has quietly completed a structural shift from bullish to bearish.
The hourly chart shows a continuous decline in highs, with each rebound weakening layer by layer, and the price consistently pressured below the short-term moving averages. The moving averages have completely switched from support to resistance; every small rebound offers bears a second chance to push prices down.
The most fatal issue is not the decline itself, but the rebound without volume.
Recent rallies have been severely lacking in volume, indicating that major funds have long withdrawn from the highs, leaving only retail investors engaged in emotional battles. The upper level of 84856.6 has become the absolute short-term lifeline; failure to break it will result in continued weak consolidation, while a breakthrough could restart the bullish trend.
The lower level of 79216.6 is the last bottom line of this upward structure. Once broken, the high-level oscillation will end completely, and a deep correction will begin.
It took 169 days to fully understand: the market never rushes to fall.
It first exhausts your patience with oscillations, then uses sharp spikes to knock out your positions.
When technical structures weaken, do not force bullish views; when signals are not confirmed, firmly stay out and wait. In trading, the final battle is not about win rate, but restraint.
Understand the trend, control greed, endure the oscillations, and only then can you survive this brutal game until the end. BTC touched 85,200, is it considered stable now?
On the evening of September 25, during the hour from 19:00 to 20:00 Beijing time, the BTC perpetual contract reached an intraday high of 85,242.2 USDT, but closed back at 84,540.1 USDT. The closing prices of the next two hourly candles continued to decline, closing at 83,881.7 at 22:00.
This surge did not hold near the high at the hourly close. I would interpret this as a spike followed by a pullback; just touching that price does not confirmIf you're waiting for $BTC to drop to 78k, the clock is ticking — you probably have about two weeks.
78k is the 50-week moving average. It's trending upward while the price is consolidating sideways. Two more weeks like this? It'll be close to 79k. Four weeks? That would be 80k.
The support in the bull market is continuously rising. Simply put, this is actually bullish.Account Position Divergence Radar
$DOGE Top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.558, top positions long-short ratio is 0.791; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.828; price dropped 0.62%, position value change -0.02%.
$PEPE Top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.107, top positions long-short ratio is 0.801; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.669; price dropped 0.91%, position value change -1.08%.
$WLD Both top accounts and top positions are short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 0.715, top positions long-short ratio is 0.896; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 2.149; price dropped 1.37%, position value change -0.71%. The account number structure and position distribution of the top group are aligned.
DOGE, PEPE: The side dominating in account numbers is opposite to the side dominating in positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution.
DOGE, PEPE, WLD: The overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the top positions' bias.Looking back at these two DOGE trades, Xiao Chen feels deeply moved
One DOGE long position, opened at 0.082, closed at 0.089, 50x full position, gained +85% profit;
The other, anticipating a pullback, opened a short early at 0.092, the market rose against the trend, finally painfully exited at 0.105, -320%, the heaviest lesson since entering the market
Just like the saying: The market never changes direction because of your judgment
In trading too, the market won’t obey my predictions or my positions. Even if many previous trades were profitable and the win rate looks high, just one time of stubbornly holding against the trend can swallow up profits in big chunks.
The market’s “unfairness” is the norm.
Catching the trend and riding the market is luck plus thought; but the market can always exceed expectations, this is a reality we must accept.
When making money, the market gives opportunities; the losing trade was because I was eager to catch the turning point and pulled the trigger before confirming the signal.
A high win rate doesn’t mean you won’t face heavy blows.
Even with 90 profitable trades, just one time of losing control over position size and leverage can be extremely costly
This post is Xiao Chen’s money-losing memoirs 😭, hoping all partners won’t give up because of this, let’s work hard together, make big money together, get back up after falling, don’t fear difficulties.
⚠️ Reminder: This is only personal trading insight, not any investment advice. Contract high leverage carries great risk.
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒🪙 This is the first #BTC bear market that never closed below the Realized Price.
This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time.NEW: 🟠 #Bitcoin's June low never closed below the Realized Price ($77K True Market Mean), unlike 2018-19 and 2022-23 bear markets where price stayed below it for months.
If current levels hold, this marks the shallowest bear-market low since 2017, per Glassnode data. 📈Don't be fooled by that profit screenshot; what really matters is not how much he earned. Do you think the hardest part about 100x leverage is predicting the direction? I've been watching these trades for a long time, and the more I look, the more I feel everyone's focus is misplaced. BTC average price 83138 entry, 84502 exit, less than five hours, 4.5 coins position, +158%. ETH entered at 2672, exited at 2683, 37% gain in 45 minutes. ZEC used 50x leverage, entered at 1547, 15 coins, currently floating profit of 169U. The numbers are indeed impressive, but that's not what I want to emphasize. What really concerns me is the position structure. BTC used 4.5 coins, ETH stacked up to 30 coins, ZEC only 15 coins. This is not random; there is selection involved. Mainstream coins get enough volume, altcoins have controlled exposure, indicating the operator clearly knows which leg can bear weight and which leg is just testing the waters. Many only see that he dares to go 100x leverage, but don't see that the number of coins in each trade is actually controlling risk. What does this mean for the market? BTC rebounded from around 83000 to 84500, ETH almost simultaneously followed, and even small-cap ZEC was pulled up in the short term, indicating that risk appetite is warming up and funds are willing to probe directions with greater elasticity. But note, the ETH trade exited after only an $11 fluctuation, indicating even the longs themselves don't believe this is a trend to hold, more like a rhythm of catching a rebound. The bullish path is, if BTC can hold above 84000, ETH will catch up with a supplementary rise, and altcoins will become active, short