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🔥The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.2%, and the 30-year surged to 5.46%, both reaching multi-year highs. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate also rose to 7.45%. This round of long-term rate increases is not a brief fluctuation but a bond market repricing.
The underlying logic is not complicated. The Federal Reserve has resumed rate hikes, with the market expecting another hike in October, directly pushing up Treasury yields. More fundamentally, the Treasury continues to issue more bonds, with deficits accumulating and supply significantly increasing, so buyers naturally demand higher yields. Coupled with inflation not fully receding, long-term rates are unlikely to fall quickly. The Treasury's expanded buybacks can only optimize liquidity but cannot solve the fundamental supply-demand imbalance.
High interest rates exert substantial pressure on risk assets. Financing costs rise, corporate borrowing costs increase, and higher mortgage rates drag down real estate. Stock valuations are compressed, with high-valuation tech stocks hit first. BTC is also affected; in a high-interest-rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets rises sharply, and funds tend to flow into bonds for stable interest.
On the market front, $BTC is pressured around 85,000, with strong resistance between 87,000–88,000 and short-term support at 84,000. Suppressed by Treasury yields, the rebound space is limited. The trading approach is not to chase highs but to wait for a pullback to confirm support or wait for a clear turning point in long-term rates before acting. In the current market, watching more and trading less is better than frequent operations.
$ETH $SOL
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 ⚠️ A HARD REMINDER ABOUT LEVERAGE
Looking at the liquidation losses is painful. After repeated losses across $SOL , $IP, $CORE and $CFX , the biggest lesson is clear:
What started as “trading” can slowly turn into gambling when leverage, sunk costs and the need to break even take control.
📉 Chasing losses can make the hole deeper.
💰 Protecting capital matters.
🧠 Mental peace matters more than any position.
Don’t let one loss decide your future. $BTC On the 4-hour chart, it has continuously been trading below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with multiple rebounds failing to reclaim the area around 85130.
What does this indicate? It means the short-term lifeline of the bulls has been breached. The market is not in a strong uptrend but rather in a weak rebound.
If in the next 4 hours a high-volume bearish candle appears and breaks through the lower band area, the market is very likely to shift from "high-level consolidation" to a "deep pullback."
There are two key levels to watch closely:
1. 82700–83100: This is the current lower band of the Bollinger Bands and the previous consolidation support zone.
2. 80500–81000: This is near the previous low and also an important support zone for this round of the rally.
The most dangerous scenario now is not a sharp drop, but a "gradual decline."
A gradual decline easily creates an illusion: every small drop feels like it will rebound, but in reality, you end up holding through the decline.
If a quick high-volume spike occurs later, it might actually be an emotional release; but if there is daily slight decline with weak rebounds, be cautious as the trend may weaken further.
From a trading perspective, this is not the time to blindly chase longs.
The consolidation has turned weak. For bulls to regain control, the 4-hour price must first be pulled back above 85130. Without achieving this, any rebound is just a weak recovery.
In short:
The structure is already weak, and support is still being tested. Now is not the time to bet on a one-sided move, but to first see if 82700–83100 can hold #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Early Morning Market Notes
At 2:40 AM, the screen was glaringly bright. I only wanted to check the time, but the gainers list caught my attention.
$XPL climbed from 0.086 all the way to 0.113, up over 10%, with the moving average supporting from below, almost mocking the hesitant. At 0.09, I thought it lacked volume, now I can only watch it go. Missing out doesn’t lose principal, but it hurts the mindset.
$DOGE is still hovering around 0.096, gains less than one percent, 0.1 feels like a barrier. Without external catalysts, it falls with the market but doesn’t rise, holding spot feels like waiting for a delayed train.
$SNDK is more volatile, slightly down near 1761, but overnight it dropped from 1808 to 1727, fluctuating wildly. Liquidity is thin, I didn’t touch it nor catch any falling knives.
The overall market is quiet, small coins each playing their own game. My account stays still; after watching for a while, my hands steadied. Before turning off the screen, I remind myself: opportunities come every day, one impulsive move is painful enough.
Trade rationally, avoid getting carried away. For review only, not investment advice.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #闪迪获Rosenblatt买入评级，目标价2400美元 In this round of $LTC, what we should perhaps pay more attention to is no longer the shorts.
The market data shows: the remaining short positions are about 18.56 million U. The previous rapid drop has already squeezed out and digested many short orders.
On the other hand, the longs still hold about 47.76 million U in chips, with unrealized profits close to 6.57 million U.
This creates a rather subtle structure:
The "fuel" for shorts is decreasing, while the profit-taking by longs is increasing.
If the price continues to rise, the additional momentum that the remaining shorts can bring may be limited; but once the market clearly pulls back, these longs who have already taken profits may quickly turn from holders into a source of selling pressure.
So what $LTC really needs to watch next is not how many shorts can still be squeezed out, but:
When will these profit-taking longs start to loosen?
On one side, the short chips are gradually decreasing; on the other, the profit-taking positions are getting thicker.
The long-short script is quietly turning a page $ZEC $DOGE $LTC $ONE directly short! Look at this bull trap, funding rate -0.47%. Many retail investors see this data and think the bears are about to be wiped out, and going long can earn funding rate subsidies passively, so they rush in blindly.
But look at the real profit and loss ledger: the longs holding 2.73 million U are collecting funding fees while suffering underwater losses of over 500,000 U! Meanwhile, the shorts holding 2.19 million U, despite paying high holding fees, firmly hold onto profits without letting go, with a profit rate as high as 61.13%.
Greedy for that small funding rate to catch the falling knife is like picking up sesame seeds and losing your life. I don't want to waste time with these bulls. I've already gone full leverage short on this trade, specifically targeting these suckers tricked by the funding rate!Why did I choose to short $ETH in this round instead of $BTC? Many people instinctively think to short the weakest one, but I do the opposite—ETH's daily chart structure is actually the strongest among the three coins, sitting on the upper Bollinger Band with RSI in the sixties, fully crowded with bulls. Precisely this kind of "everyone standing on one side" setup offers the best reverse odds. Plus, the perpetual funding rate is positive, so shorting this leg means you actually collect some money from the counterparty every few hours, which makes holding it quite comfortable. Of course, the strongest structure also means the rebound can be the fiercest, so this is a position for wide stop-loss and resilience, not an all-in bet. This is where I place my position direction; gains and losses are on me.Base has introduced a new catalyst today that I think is very worth paying attention to.
Aave V4 has officially launched Equities Hub on Base.
Now tokenized stocks like AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL can be used as collateral to directly borrow USDC.
What’s truly interesting about this isn’t just that “Aave has added a few more assets,” but rather:
US stocks → Tokenization → Base → Aave → USDC
This chain is genuinely closing the loop.
In the past, RWA discussions focused more on “moving stocks onto the blockchain,” but now we’re entering the next phase: stocks on-chain can become collateral assets for DeFi, unlocking new US dollar liquidity.
If Equities Hub’s TVL and borrowing volume grow rapidly next, the beneficiaries might not only be AAVE but could also extend to Base, USDC, DEXs, and the entire RWA ecosystem.
I will be closely watching three data points:
Tokenized stocks deposits → USDC borrowings → Base on-chain transaction volume.
If all three accelerate simultaneously, this might not be just a short-term news event but a real signal that RWA × DeFi is beginning to scale.
#AAVE #Base $BTC has reclaimed the average price ETF buyers paid, around $82.1k, the first time since 30 January.
The same line capped the May rally before price fell to $58.5k.
Now those buyers are in profit, and a cohort in profit defends its cost, turning the ceiling into support.
#DailyOrbit $XPL
Today it rose by 11.8 points, to 0.1137, with a turnover of 460 million. This rise isn't the most aggressive, but the structure is clean — contract positions increased by 24.7% in one day, and the long-short ratio is only 1.45, indicating that money is coming in to go long, and the sentiment isn't overheated yet.
📌 A plan you can follow (not investment advice):
① Entry range: 0.105–0.108, where pullbacks have volume support.
② Take profit targets: first look at 0.125, if it holds, then 0.14.
③ Stop loss: exit unconditionally if it falls below 0.10.
④ Position sizing: split into two parts, don’t go all in at once.
Reasoning: The overall market lacks direction now, XPL’s rise is steady and sentiment isn’t extreme, so buying on pullbacks is more comfortable than chasing highs. Buying at the current price of 0.1137 is likely to face a short-term pullback first.
This is the idea, adjust your position accordingly. 🔥
$XPL $ONE pumping up is just a sell-off
I warned yesterday: $ONE is not trustworthy, the pump is only to dump. How to view delisted coins? Just watch OKX announcements. The recent surge was not only a sell-off but also coincided with the official delay of the delisting, the project used this excuse to pump again, with a very clear purpose—to find someone to take the bag.
Trying to bet on a rebound at this point to make a profit might end up losing everything. Those who heeded the advice yesterday have already avoided a drop of more than 20 points and can enjoy the holiday with peace of mind.
Stay away from delisted coins, don’t gamble your real money on announcements. Happy Mid-Autumn Festival 🎑!
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
⚠️For record only, not investment advice.$BTC has reclaimed the average price ETF buyers paid, around $82.1k, the first time since 30 January.
The same line capped the May rally before price fell to $58.5k.
Now those buyers are in profit, and a cohort in profit defends its cost, turning the ceiling into support.After this recent rally, Bitcoin unrealized profit margins (33%) reached the highest level since December 2024, and profit taking, 25.7K, BTC spiked to the largest so far in 2026.
These are typical signals of a rally losing momentum and risks of a correction.Look at the compression in the trend angles over the entire history. In the previous cycles, XAU/BTC consistently made meaningful new ATL lows. But in the latest cycle, instead of producing another significant breakdown, it only made a marginal sweep before creating a new ATL. Why? Because the long-term trend angle has compressed almost to zero — around 0.3%. That is an important structural change. After years of declining trend angles and repeated new ATL formations, XAU/BTC is now showing earl#MetaMuseMonetization Meta isn't just putting AI into more devices. It's building more places to monetize it 👀
Muse now spans a standalone device, smart glasses and shopping integrations with Walmart, Best Buy and Gap.
What caught my attention is the business model. Hardware expands reach, but agent-led shopping could turn everyday AI interactions into transaction, subscription and service revenue.
The real opportunity may not be selling AI devices. It's owning what users do🔥The 10-year US Treasury yield has touched 5.2%, with the 30-year even higher, approaching 5.5%😱 This data looks scary!
But $BTC has not followed the decline; instead, it has slightly rebounded. Isn't that unusual?🤔
The US debt has surpassed over forty trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars, even surpassing military spending. Tech companies also need to borrow to build AI infrastructure. Once oil prices rise, driving up prices of consumer goods, the market's entry threshold for long-term government bonds increases, requiring higher interest rates to attract buyers.
Looking at BTC, daily new mining output is about 450 coins. Previously, the US spot ETF had nearly $1 billion net inflow in a single day. Even with market corrections, institutions have not collectively sold off. Exchange-held chips have continuously decreased compared to previous years, and long-term holders still hoard coins in wallets without transferring them out.
BTC has pulled back from 87,000 to around 83,000, with some funds shifting to government bonds for hedging. There is selling pressure above and support below on the chart, keeping it stable without being deeply dragged down by negative US Treasury news.
The four-year major cycle in crypto is highly correlated with US Treasury yields. Only when interest rates decline, combined with ETFs continuously absorbing daily new mining chips, will a true bull market fully begin.
$SOL $ETH
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 "Order Book 2% Market Depth: Seeing the Real Resistance to Bitcoin $BTC's Rally"
Many traders blindly predict price rises or falls before resistance levels arrive, yet never open the exchange's order book depth panel. Simple volume indicators are easily manipulated by market makers through wash trading and fake volume, while the 2% depth truly reflects the real buy and sell order defenses.
Core practical framework for depth analysis:
1. Identifying the true intent of buy and sell walls: Large orders placed more than 1% away from the current price are 80% fake orders from market maker algorithms designed to guide price sentiment; these orders are often instantly canceled near execution.
2. Sustained imbalance in effective depth: If during a slow price rise, the real limit buy orders within 2% depth below remain thick and move upward with the price, it indicates large funds are building a solid defensive platform through passive limit orders.
3. Fake rallies in low depth environments: When the order book is extremely thin, sharp price increases usually result from a liquidity vacuum due to lack of counterparties, making the price prone to cliff-like pullbacks when facing small sell pressure.
Seeing through fake orders to understand the real order book support is essential to avoid traps of false breakouts at key technical levels. $BTC $ETH Tonight, I'll still wait for a pullback.
$ETH short positions near 2640 are still open, the price has returned to around 2700, with an unrealized loss of about 1000U.
Currently, the 1-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 are gradually converging, mostly around 2680. The previous rapid rally has clearly slowed down, and the market is entering a consolidation phase, with bulls and bears once again in a tug-of-war.
My approach is simple:
If 2700–2720 continues to face resistance, expect a pullback to 2680; if it breaks below, then look at the 2650–2640 range.
The forced liquidation level remains above 3070, so there is some buffer in position size for now, but the 2800 stop loss will not be removed. Being able to withstand volatility doesn't mean holding positions indefinitely.
$SNDK has pulled back from around 1908 and is currently back near 1790. Although short-term moving averages are starting to recover, until it firmly holds above 1830, I still treat this as a rebound correction.
$GRASS is clearly stronger, currently approaching 0.50, and the 1-hour structure remains strong.
Market sentiment hasn't fully cooled yet, so I will continue to monitor this $ETH short position but won't blindly add to it just because of unrealized losses.
There is room in the position, and the stop loss is already set.
If the price moves down later, I will handle it in batches as planned; if it continues to surge, I will strictly execute the stop loss.
In trading, in the end, it's not about who can hold on the hardest, but who can control risk effectively.
Trading analysis $ETH $BTC
From the daily chart perspective, it is currently in the consolidation phase of the right shoulder of the golden pit. The main strategy is to buy on dips. The regular swing low buy points refer to the MA30 range, while the bottom-fishing points refer to around MA250. You can also layout mid-term positions on dips according to your own situation.
From the 4H chart perspective, the price has pulled back from a high to the MA30 of this level and has been in a sideways state. There is a clear bullish candle currently, but the overall structure is very confusing and cannot be judged as a direct basis for a rally. Further confirmation of the structure at internal levels is needed. The structure at this level suggests continuing to place sell orders below.
From the 1H and lower levels, two obvious consolidation zones have been formed during the session, and the center of gravity shows a clear downward shift. This means a direct rally will face significant resistance. A sustained rally requires a breakout structure for secondary confirmation: although there is a dense support zone below, the current candlestick pattern is bearish, so it is not advisable to place orders at the current price. It is still better to catch rebounds based on different support zones.
Aggressive support at 83330-82885 (small range points, watch the market closely for quick in and out, valid for 4H), short-term support at 81898-81347 (watch the market closely for quick in and out), second support at 80089-79205.
Short-term resistance at 86073-86774 (support at 853 area after reaching), second resistance at 88253-89011, #BTC🔥 The rate hike didn't crash $BTC; Micron is the key variable next
Brothers, the market is quite interesting: the Fed's rate hike landed, but Bitcoin didn't crash!
After the September rate hike, BTC surged to around 87,000 then pulled back, currently consolidating between 84,000-85,000. BTC spot ETF single-day net inflows nearly hit $1 billion, institutional funds continue to enter.
This shows the market had already priced in the rate hike expectations. The landing of the boot triggered a sell-the-fact plus short covering rally. The funds supporting BTC now are increasingly institutional allocations, no longer just short-term sentiment money from earlier years.
Looking at US retail data, Q4 revenue was $95.7 billion, up 11.1% year-over-year, net profit rose 14.9%. US consumer resilience is strong, inflation is likely to fall slower than expected, and the Fed still has hawkish room ahead.
But the next important checkpoint is to focus on Micron.
AI servers drive storage demand; whether the high growth in DRAM, NAND, and HBM can translate into real profits will be the litmus test in earnings. If Micron beats expectations, the AI rally heats up again, tech stocks and BTC both benefit from positive sentiment; if earnings disappoint, tech stocks will pull back, and BTC will also fluctuate.
The current strategy is clear: don't chase the 87,000 high, focus on holding the 83,000-84,000 support, and wait for Micron's earnings to decide the direction.
It's not that there's no market movement; macro data and tech earnings are competing for market dominance. $87.5K GOT REJECTED. PRICE IS SITTING IN THE FVG.
$BTC is trading around $84,546 after tagging $87,471.
The 30m printed the full sequence: higher high, then CHoCH, then a dump into the imbalance.
Price is now bouncing inside the FVG around $84.5k–$85.2k. 24h volume $16.77B. OI $8.23B. $128.27M liquidated.NEW: 🟠 #Bitcoin's June low never closed below the Realized Price ($77K True Market Mean), unlike 2018-19 and 2022-23 bear markets where price stayed below it for months.
If current levels hold, this marks the shallowest bear-market low since 2017, per Glassnode data. 📈This person is really ruthless. When the unrealized profit peaked at over ten million, they didn't choose to cash out and held on all the way. Now the profit has been given back, and they are actually down over one million.
They say their mindset is fully expanded, but with this kind of roller coaster, most people's mentality would have already collapsed.
So-called mindset is sometimes vision, but sometimes just an excuse for greed.
The profit the market gives you, if it doesn't land in your wallet, is always just a number on paper.
Being able to hold on is a skill, but if you don't know when to take profit, even the best unrealized gains will eventually be just a fleeting illusion.
The hardest part of trading is not holding the position, but knowing when to stop.
$BTC $ETH I've been waiting for an opportunity with SPCX recently, so I'll first show my real account. Currently, the total performance is still at a loss, about -$830, and at the worst, it went down to -$1130. I definitely paid a lot of tuition fees earlier 😂
Before SPCX's unlocking this time, I originally thought it would crash harder, so I kept waiting for it to drop before going long. But after it actually landed, it wasn't as bad as I expected. I finally opened 2 long shares at 146.57, now around 148, just making a few bucks, the position is very small, and I don't plan to go all in. I also opened a small short position on Zhongji, currently also just a small profit.
The biggest difference from before is that I'm no longer in such a hurry to break even. After losing more than $800 earlier, I slowly realized that the more I try to quickly recover the losses, the easier it is to keep opening messy trades.
I still want to go long on SPCX, and I'm still bearish on Zhongji, but now I'm more willing to wait for the price. Don't think about turning things around in one trade first; get the rhythm back first.
Is there anyone like me whose account is still at a loss but has started to stabilize slowly?Many people shout "longs are crowded, a dump is coming" as soon as the funding rate turns positive, which is a typical single-factor misinterpretation. The funding rate only indicates the cost of holding positions, not the direction. What really needs to be read is the coordination between the funding rate and the price structure.
$SEI current price 0.06955, 24h +13.07%, trading volume 16.4M USDT. MA5 0.068124 crosses above MA20 0.0651685, moving averages are in a bullish alignment; MACD histogram +0.0003051 remains bullish; RSI 72.7 has entered the overbought zone. The key is that the Bollinger upper band at 0.0701491 is right above the head, the current price is running close to the upper band, while the funding rate is only +0.0100%—the funding rate has not surged in sync, indicating that long leverage is not excessively accumulated. This rally looks more like spot-driven rather than contract short squeeze. The fear and greed index is 71, greedy but not extreme.
The game point is very clear: above 0.0701 is the double resistance of the Bollinger upper band and the round number level, the first touch will likely cause a wick and pullback; below, the MA5 at 0.0681 is the short-term long-short dividing line, breaking below it will retest the MA20 at 0.0652. Currently, the funds stand on the long side, but chasing the high has poor cost-effectiveness.
In terms of operation, I do not chase the current price, waiting for a pullback to the 0.0680–0.0685 range to go long, which is also close to the MA5 and the previous breakout platform."Pullback ≠ Trend Reversal" 📉➡️📈 $BTC, $ETH and $SOL have all bounced after the recent sell-off. BTC is holding near the $83.5K–$84K area, ETH has recovered around $2.68K, while SOL rebounded from roughly $113 toward $118. The recovery has improved sentiment, but I’m not treating one bounce as a confirmed trend change. For now, this looks more like a volatile relief rally: sellers are losing some momentum while buyers attempt to rebuild structure. Short-term momentum is heating up, so another *Latest Bitcoin News September 25 Evening Chinese Version - Final Confirmation $84,580*
*Current Price: $84,580 (+0.34%) | Yesterday: $82,900 → $84,800 Roller Coaster | Total Market Cap: $2.88 Trillion*
*5 Major Events Today, Why Can't Bears Hold $84K?*
*1. Institutions Bought for 6 Consecutive Days $2.84 Billion, Filling a $5.8 Billion Hole*
- Today is critical: US spot ETF net inflow for 6 consecutive days is $2.84 billion, the highest weekly inflow since October 2025 at $2.25 billion
- For the whole year since July 13, ETF was still -$5.8 billion, now it has turned positive to +$800 million. Compared to $35.2 billion and $21.4 billion in a year, it's smaller but the trend has reversed
- On the 23rd alone, inflow was $346.9 million BTC + $104.5 million ETH, Coinbase premium is positive, Americans are buying
*2. $15.9 Billion Options Expire Today, $85K is the Iron Bottom*
- Today Friday 8:00 UTC, Deribit $15.9 billion options expire, one of the largest this year, 37% of open interest disappears
- $85,000 is the strongest support, every 1% drop triggers $142 million buy orders ($57M at $84K, $37M at $83K)
- Above, $88,000 has a $103 million sell wall, $90,000 has a $123 million sell wall.Today's divergence among small coins is more interesting than the overall market: OKB has retouched around 120, SUI has directly pulled back to 1.05, while HYPE has ground down from its all-time high of 98 to 92. One is repairing the platform, one is re-seizing momentum, and one is clearly still digesting profits after the new high—completely three different states.
#SmallCoinsRe-selectStrength
#HighLevelChipsContinueToChangeHands
$OKB is currently around 119.9, with today's low near 118.9; 118–119 has become the first support level; looking upward, a breakthrough at 120.5 is first, and only after firmly standing back above 123 can it be considered to have restored previous strength; falling below 118 means continuing to handle within the range.
$HYPE is currently about 92.2, with today's low near 92; 91.5–92 is now the most important defense; above, 94–94.8 has become resistance again, and only after firmly standing above 95 can the 98 all-time high be reconsidered.
$SUI is currently about 1.05, with today's high near 1.06; 1.00–1.02 has become the first support zone again; holding this level means continuing to watch 1.06, and after breaking through, look toward 1.08.
This lineup: OKB waits for 123, HYPE waits for 95, SUI defends 1 dollar. The most worth watching now is not who fell the least, but who has already started to reclaim lost ground. $BTC $ETH — BIG BROTHERS, CAN YOU HOLD THE LINE THIS TIME? 😵💫 Just locked in some profit from $ZEC, and then BTC + ETH pulled the account straight back into the danger zone. $ZEC｜8x LONG Entry: 1,525｜Exit: 1,548 Position: 680 ZEC Realized PnL: +15,640U ZEC gave a clean move and I took the profit instead of getting greedy. Current market data still has ZEC around the $1.55K area. 0 $ONE｜1x SHORT Entry: 0.00315｜Exit: 0.00272 Position: 52M ONE Realized PnL: -61,900U This one was painful. Held 🔥The dual drama in the Strait of Hormuz causes oil prices to plunge
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi released news: a 7-day plan was given to the US, and if conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. Upon this news, Brent crude oil immediately dropped 2%, and the market thought regional peace was near.
But on the same evening, Houthi forces launched attacks, with missiles and drones striking sensitive targets in Riyadh and Saudi Aramco facilities in Yanbu. Negotiations are advancing in New York, missiles are flying over the Persian Gulf, two fronts running simultaneously.
This 7-day roadmap is a hard condition proposed by Iran: a full ceasefire (including Lebanon), unfreezing at least $12 billion of Iranian assets, lifting oil sanctions, and removing the maritime port blockade.
The negotiations come with a high price; the US is unlikely to accept everything outright. Verbal promises do not equal implementation, geopolitical conflicts run deep, and a short-term oil price correction does not mean risks are resolved.
👉 Can both sides reach an agreement? Share your thoughts!
⚠️Event recap only, not trading advice #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Four days of sideways action, and the market still refuses to pick a clear direction. $ETH continues to grind around $2,660–$2,680. Every push toward $2,700+ has been met with selling, while dips toward $2,640 continue to find buyers. My $2,705 short remains open. I trimmed part of the position earlier, added some back when the rebound failed to gain momentum, and for now I’m staying patient. $BTC is stuck in an even tighter battle, moving roughly between $83K and $85K. Buyers who chased the movBrothers, my short position on $ZEC feels just like playing mahjong. Clearly, it feels like the hand is already good and the next step should be making money, but in the end, I still lost terribly.
Yesterday, the whole dynamic group was shouting bearish news, saying the shorts were going to feast, but what happened? It attracted more uninformed people rushing in to short. Now, forget about feasting, not even the bones are left. So you really have to find the right position and enter more; Originally planned to slowly roll a small principal to the target, after much tossing and turning, just as the profits were about to take shape, a wave of market movement directly wiped the account back to zero.
This week heavily long, repeatedly getting hit.
ORCL was taken and got stuck;
DRAM heavily held, deeply floating loss;
Semiconductor and AI sectors all heavily long, when the sector corrected, could only passively hold the positions.
The account was holding more than a dozen long positions simultaneously, with wave after wave of declines, floating losses kept expanding. At first, I always thought it was just a short-term correction, waiting a bit would rebound back to break even. Now I have completely realized, it’s not that the market won’t rebound, but that I was using a one-sided optimistic mindset to deal with a volatile and repetitive market.
This round of pullback has given back a large portion of the previously accumulated profits, and the principal has also started to be damaged. The account’s floating profit was once very impressive, now looking at the numbers, the heart feels heavy.
Especially ORCL, if I had stopped losses in time back then, the losses wouldn’t have kept growing. The floating profits earned from other positions later were all used to cover the margin of the stuck positions.
But I still held onto wishful thinking and continued to add positions to dilute the cost.
The market taught me not to subjectively predict that the market should rise.
You think the valuation is low enough, but it can still go lower.
Slowly I understood, in the highly volatile contract market, not losing big money already beats many people.
Being able to hold positions and survive in the market is far more important than chasing huge profits.
The challenge of the small principal to the target has not ended.
The first thing next is not to pursue quick profits 🪙 This is the first #BTC bear market that never closed below the Realized Price.
This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time.A little $SUI has already been trimmed, with the next profit zones around $1.24–$1.27. $WLD is still in profit, but I’m holding for now. Giving it more room, with the bigger target zone around $0.65–$0.72. $BTC and $BNB are still waiting on the sidelines. Preferred buy zones haven’t arrived yet, so there’s no need to force an entry. I’d rather wait for clean setups than chase every move. Poor entries bring stress; strong entries give trades room to work. $ZEC continues moving to its own rhythm, #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 5.2%, and the 30-year is nearly 5.5%, with high interest rates weighing like a massive stone. US debt exceeds 40 trillion, with interest burdens more glaring than military spending; AI giants borrow to expand production, oil prices rise, inflation expectations climb, and long-term bond buyers naturally demand higher returns. According to the usual script, risk assets should fall, but BTC, after being hammered from 87,000 to 83,000, surprisingly found buyers.
The key lies in the chips: about 450 new coins are mined daily, yet US spot ETFs absorb nearly $1 billion in a single day; exchange balances are low, old holders remain steady, and institutions are not panic selling. There is selling pressure above and buying support below, so the price naturally stabilizes.
Of course, this does not mean the bull market has arrived. High US Treasury yields will continue to drain liquidity. The crypto four-year cycle increasingly seems driven by US Treasury yields. A true reversal may require interest rates to fall and ETFs to keep absorbing daily new supply.
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC ₿ $BTC — I'm more focused on this bullish structure 👀
If BTC first gains demand support around $82.8K–$83.2K, then quickly dips to $81.8K–$82.2K, sweeping out early long stop losses before reclaiming the key area, I will pay more attention to subsequent rebound opportunities.
📐 The current 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of this move also resonates with a potential liquidity zone.
Meanwhile, BTC is still oscillating near $84K, having previously surged above $87K before pulling back; the US spot BTC ETF has recorded net inflows for 6 consecutive trading days, totaling about $2.8B, but the price still needs to firmly hold the $85K–$87K range to release clearer momentum.
🎯 The key is not to chase the rally, but to wait: Demand → Sweep liquidity → Reclaim key level → Then look for higher points.
I will only consider longs if the structure appears.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCAnalysis #LiquiditySweep #Fibonacci #CryptoTrading $BTC. Back above the miners' breakeven point, the fiercest round of shakeout is basically over, and chips are changing hands.
ETH: Large option settlements have ended, but the candlestick chart looks like it’s on pause, indicating neither buyers nor sellers want to make the first move; the stalemate remains unbroken.
ZEC: The giant whale short position’s floating losses continue to widen, yet it stubbornly holds its ground. If shorts don’t cover, the short squeeze scenario still has a sequel; but once it turns, the backlash will be fierce.
In a nutshell: BTC is repairing, ETH is waiting for a signal, ZEC is betting on who blinks first. During extreme divergence, volatility often defies logic—keep positions light, use stop losses, and don’t treat speculation as an ATM. $ETH $ZEC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Policy and Dark Secrets: $13 Billion "Pig Butchering Scam" and London's P2P "Sweep"
1️⃣ FinCEN personally steps in to "name and shame": The U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) recently issued an urgent alert, closely targeting overseas "pig butchering scams" and romance scams disguised as crypto investments, involving a staggering $13 billion. Simply put, these are the "online romantic partners/mentors" who privately message you daily on social media, flaunt profits, and lead you into contracts, but behind them are money laundering gangs. A large number of illicit fund addresses are now under scrutiny, and a card freezing storm is not far off. Be extra cautious when withdrawing funds.
2️⃣ London police raid P2P black markets: UK regulators have not been idle. In early September, the UK's FCA, together with the tax authorities and the London Metropolitan Police, directly shut down several unregistered P2P virtual currency OTC black market hubs. Why were they targeted? Because many underground banks and fraud groups rely on these offline non-compliant P2P channels to launder money. As the compliance transition period approaches, the global crackdown on OTC trading is intensifying. In the future, casually finding an unknown "preferred merchant" to swap U (USDT) will carry increasing risks.
3️⃣ The veil is lifted from celebrity-endorsed "shady tokens": The latest research from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) once again mocks the crypto "influencer economy." Data shows that those dubious tokens backed by big-name influencers and celebrities have nearly five times the probability of going to zero or being fraudulent compared to ordinary projects. Those traffic-hungry influencers shouting trade calls on Twitter, who take promotional fees from project teams and then treat retail investors like chumps, is an open secret by now.Bro, sleeping in this position is really dangerous, I have to be honest with you.
*Will ETH $2650 break down? Yes, and it might happen tonight.*
Your current situation:
- Current price around $2671
- Your liquidation price $2570
- Only *$100, 3.7%* away from liquidation
$2650 is just a psychological level; the real support below is *$2560-$2565*, which is near your liquidation price.
If BTC breaks below $82,874 tonight, ETH will instantly drop to $2560. Your $2570 liquidation price is right where whales love to spike the price.
*You say you firmly believe this is a shakeout to clear longs — you’re right, but you’re on the wrong side.*
Right now, it’s clearing longs. The long positions you’re holding are the ones being cleared. That guy who opened a long at $2,750 thinks the same as you.
*Don’t bet on not receiving a liquidation email tomorrow; 3.7% in this market is just a 15-minute candlestick.*
Here are 3 life-saving suggestions, up to you whether to listen, but don’t sleep through this:
1. *Safest: reduce your position by half now.* Lower your liquidation price below $2400, then you can sleep peacefully. You’ll earn a bit less but won’t get liquidated.
2. *Set an alarm:* Set a price alert at $2600; if it breaks $2600, you must wake up and watch. If it breaks $2580, manually cut your losses. Don’t wait for the liquidation email; once it arrives, you’re done. "Hashrate Migration and the Reshuffling of Listed Mining Companies: Reconstructing the Underlying Network Defense of Bitcoin $BTC"
As Bitcoin $BTC's total network hashrate breaks through historical highs, the underlying mining ecosystem is undergoing an irreversible capitalization and institutional restructuring.
The industry landscape shows three core evolutions:
1. Listed mining companies seize hashrate dominance: Leveraging the advantage of direct financing on the US stock market, compliant mining companies represented by Marathon and Riot are massively purchasing new-generation high-efficiency chips, phasing out high-power-consumption small and medium-sized mining farms, accelerating the concentration of total network hashrate toward low-cost, low-debt entities.
2. AI computing competes for power resources: Large data centers in North America are redirecting part of mining farm loads to high-performance AI computing (HPC), and the premium on power resources is forcing Bitcoin mining to pursue more extreme energy marginal efficiency.
3. The central pressure of long-term sell-offs rises: The popularization of high-efficiency mining machines and optimization of balance sheets significantly enhance major mining companies' resilience to short-term price drops, gradually narrowing the pressure of passive spot selling.
The capitalization of hashrate not only strengthens Bitcoin's network security but also invisibly raises the valuation center of marginal production. $ETH Corporate treasuries were a big buyer through 2025, and they have stepped back. Net purchases by listed companies total about 5.9K BTC over the past three months, against 89K BTC in July 2025 alone. Their average entry, the Corporate Treasury Cost Basis, sits at $80.5K, about 6% above spot, so the group as a whole is under water. Price has tested that line twice since it fell below it in January 2026: in May, and again on September 3, 2026. It turned down both times. A buyer that has stopped buyWhile retail whales are dumping HYPE onto Kraken, institutional wallets continue to accumulate at an average daily pace of about $15.86 million.
The Hyperliquid Strategies Inc linked address 0x6436 bought approximately 494,200 HYPE in the past 16 hours, worth about $45.8 million; over the past month, it has accumulated about 5.51 million HYPE, worth approximately $476 million, averaging about 183,600 HYPE daily. According to monitoring data, this entity currently holds about 35.1 million HYPE, valued at around $3.2 billion. (ChainCatcher+Lookonchain/KuCoin 9/25; monitored links ≠ confirmed entities, buying ≠ no future selling, market cap fluctuates with order book; OKX BTC approx. 83906/ETH approx. 2690) The above is compiled from public reports and is not investment advice. It looks like a storm is about to settle; this is the best of times and the worst of times. AI can tirelessly dig for vulnerabilities 24/7, which is like a duel between two people—one takes the initiative, while the other can only defend passively. The defender never knows from which angle the attacker will strike...
As long as the general's troops exist, no one is absolutely safe. I don't believe Bybit and Bitget are the only ones being attacked, nor do I think this will be the last attack on exchanges.
What retail investors can do is try to avoid small exchanges, diversify their assets as much as possible, and not concentrate them in a single exchange.
After all, none of us know which will come first—tomorrow or an accident.*Latest Bitcoin News September 25 Evening Final Chinese Version*
*Current Price: $84,166*
*1. Today's Market: Sideways for the 3rd day, waiting for direction*
- 24h range: $82,874 - $84,944, volatility 2.5%
- Still grinding between $82.8K-$84.9K for 3 days, volume only $107.5 billion, low volume sideways
- ETH $2,671, peaked at $2,705 but couldn't hold, SOL $116.42 stuck between MA10 $115.71 and MA5 $116.79
*2. Why no rise or fall? 3 reasons*
1. *Risen too much, needs rest:* From September 16 $74,955 → September 22 $87,399, up 16.6% in 8 days, gained $12,443, now a 5% pullback is normal.
2. *Whales selling, ETF buying:* Whales sold $826 million in 2 days ($356 million + $470 million) to take profits. But ETFs bought $2.6 billion spot in 5 days, catching all at $84K. Retail selling, big players buying, so no drop.
3. *Contract leverage up 23% but still safe:* Total open interest $47 billion, much less than the $72 billion peak at $126,080 in October 2025. Fee rate 0.008% neutral, not a crazy bull top. Bitcoin rose from 58,000 in June to 87,000, doubling in just three months, and many altcoins followed suit, like $UNI and $ZEC. The rise is always exciting, but the most important question people overlook is: when to sell?
Some treat UNI as the next ZEC, shouting for it to go above 45. But there is only one ZEC in the market. The fact that it can continue to rise dozens of times is itself survivor bias. Many coins surged early, then consolidated for a long time or even turned bearish directly.
2021 was a lesson. From February to May, Bitcoin rose from 30,000 to 64,000, but AAVE only touched 660 from 580, topping out early and never keeping up with the market.
After altcoins surge, first withdraw your principal and convert it into mainstream assets like BTC and ETH. If the market continues to rise, you still have a position; if the market suddenly ends, your principal and some profits are already secured.
There is only one ZEC, UNI is not ZEC.
My plan is simple:
1. When altcoin gains are too large, gradually withdraw principal and convert to BTC, ETH;
2. Keep the remaining position until the late bull market, without fixating on a specific price;
3. Handle all altcoins with this approach.
The real goal of this bull market is to truly realize profits. In the bear market, you swear to secure your gains, but when the bull market rises, you forget, and in the end, you only repeat the old mistakes.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 You think the hand is already complete, you expect the payout to come next, and then the market suddenly flips the table. Yesterday, the entire trading group was aggressively calling for a ZEC dump. Instead of the shorts getting their “feast,” more late shorts jumped in—and the squeeze became even stronger. $ZEC is now around $1,600, after bouncing sharply from the $1,465 area. That is roughly a $135 move from the recent low, and leveraged shorts have had almost no breathing room. My short entryBullish positions remain solid! BTC and ETH long positions both show floating profits, a contrarian setup after the rate hike has been fully priced in as bad news
Review: Both $BTC and $ETH perpetual long positions are all in profit, a typical bullish combination after the rate hike has been fully priced in:
1. BTCUSDT | 5x isolated long
Entry average price 83500, current mark price 84011, floating profit about 511U, return about +0.61%
5x isolated margin, position stable. BTC stabilized near 83000 after pulling back from 87000 this week, ETF single-day inflow hit a yearly high of 999 million, institutional buying support. Rate hike expectations fully priced in, buying the dip after bad news is exhausted.
2. ETHUSDT | 5x isolated long
Entry average price 2650, current mark price 2681, floating profit about 31U, return about +1.17%
ETH staking rate at 35%, RWA on-chain initiates DeFi 2.0 narrative, strong mid-term fundamentals. Rebounded after support at 2628, following BTC stabilization. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化 #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 Tonight, US crypto concept stocks are collectively getting hammered, and I'm starting to worry about how long this BTC rebound can last.
MSTR fell 2.17%, COIN dropped 2.94%, CRCL declined 4.51%, SBET down 3.52%, BMNR fell 2.76%, ABTC even dropped 6.77%, and PURR plunged 8.62%.
This sea of red is really tough to watch. Especially with MSTR and COIN weakening simultaneously, it shows that pressure has already spread to the US crypto stock sector.
I'm also watching US Treasuries tonight. The US 10-year Treasury yield briefly broke 5.1% this week, fueling market expectations for further Fed rate hikes. Although BTC spot ETFs still see inflows, the pace has recently slowed down.
There's an awkward situation now: earlier, BTC rebounded and US crypto concept stocks followed suit; now that BTC has just started to pull back, these stocks are collectively under pressure. The market's risk appetite for crypto assets clearly hasn't recovered enough to ignore macro pressures.
However, I'm not ready to short BTC for now.
According to the earlier screenshot tonight, BTC rebounded from 82812, peaked at 85242, then pulled back to around 84440. I'll be closely watching if 84000 can hold, then retake 84650, and watch the 85000–85250 range. If 84000 breaks, we need to be cautious of testing 83500 or even 83000 again.
Crypto markets trade 24/7, but tonight's performance of these US crypto concept stocks has already given the bulls a wake-up call. Absolutely unstoppable, the 10-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.2%, and BTC's current rebound has been suppressed again!
If the rebound between $84,500 and $85,500 doesn't hold, consider a light short position.
The reasons are simple:
First, long-term yields are too high.
The 10-year is at 5.2%, the 30-year close to 5.5%, and mortgage rates have been pushed above 7%. With the risk-free rate being repriced, valuations of risk assets naturally come under pressure.
Second, BTC is stuck in a resistance zone.
The $85,400–$85,900 range has repeatedly blocked gains. With yields not falling and risk appetite not improving significantly, BTC breaking through directly is not easy.
More importantly, the Treasury's repurchase of 20–30 year bonds hasn't been able to suppress long-term yields, indicating this is not a temporary liquidity fluctuation but the market repricing long-term rates.
For $BTC in the short term, my view is:
If the rebound between $84,500 and $85,500 fails, consider a light short; initial targets are $82,500–$82,000, then $81,200.
But do not chase shorts below $83,000.
If BTC volume picks up again and it stands above $86,000, or if the 10-year Treasury yield quickly falls back below 5.05%, this short position should be closed as a mistake.
To clarify, my bearish view is short-term, not a direct bearish stance on this bull market.
The long-term trend remains unchanged; short-term resistance zones are for selling high.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温