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🚨 On the eve of the FOMC, I'm actually a bit hesitant to chase anymore
The market these past two days has been quite interesting.
BTC started the week near 79,800, gradually grinding down to around 77,000.
After the PPI and CPI releases, rate hike expectations have clearly heated up. The market's main concern now isn't "will there be volatility," but rather:
Will the FOMC deliver another blow to the market?
Currently, I'm mainly watching a few key levels.
$BTC
76,000 is the first line of defense.
If 76K holds, I think there's still a chance to retest 80,000 or even 82,000.
But if 76K breaks down with volume, don't try to catch the fall; look again at 75K and 72K below.
At this point, the most uncomfortable position isn't the bulls or the bears.
It's those who opened high leverage positions, trying to profit on both sides.
$ETH
Around 2,500, there's been repeated tug-of-war.
Continuous inflows into ETH ETFs are indeed a relatively strong fundamental support right now, but until the FOMC decision lands, I still say:
A rebound is just a rebound; don't rush to call it a reversal.
Only if it firmly holds above 2,600 will I start seriously looking at upside potential.
$SOL
The $100 level is increasingly feeling like a psychological battle.
If it climbs back above 100 → there's still a chance to keep grinding.
If it stays below 100 → around 95 might be the real test.
As for DOGE...
Elon Musk hasn't spoken, so the dog can only lie low. 😂
My biggest feeling right now is:
Before the FOMC, the market easily creates the illusion of "about to take off."
Suddenly a spike up, shorts get liquidated;
Suddenly a drop, longs get wiped out.
Then everyone starts guessing:
"Is this the bottom?"
"Is the bull market back?"
Actually, it's still too early.
Before the decision comes out, I'd rather keep some bullets in reserve.
Wait for the direction to be clear before making a move; there's no shame in that.
After all, the biggest fear in trading isn't missing a move,
but wiping out your position early just to avoid missing out.
Tonight, do you think 76K will hold, or will 75K break?
$BTC $ETH #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 RISK / REWARD — THE MARKET IS TELLING A DIFFERENT STORY
I used to see red numbers and think the market was breaking. Today, the picture looks different.
$BTC -0.66% is holding better than $ETH -1.77%,$SOL -1.93%, $XRP -1.64% and $DOGE -1.50%.Capital appears more defensive, while ALT risk is being repriced.
Risk:ALT weakness continues if BTC stays below resistance.
Reward:If BTC stabilizes,ALT could rebound harder.
The question isn’t “what’s falling?” It’s where does Risk/Reward turn in my favor?Now I’m down to just 50U. Instead of giving up, I’m starting a small-account challenge to work my way back. 🎯 Stage 1 target: 1,000U Today I opened a new $ZEC short. Entry: 1,333 Current: 1,109 The trade reached more than 100% profit, adding around 20U to the account. $ZEC finally delivered the downside move I was waiting for this afternoon, so I decided to lock in the gains rather than stay greedy. Why close here? Because I believe the current correction could become much deeper, but protectinThe most easily misunderstood aspect of the Symbiosis security incident is the "46.1 billion syBTC".
The BridgeV2 anomaly message did indeed generate about 2^62 smallest units, equivalent to about 4.61 billion syBTC; however, the attacker has confirmed that only about 4.39 WBTC was exchanged, with actual cash-out around $336,000.
The team currently states that about 15 BTC have been recovered and the Bitcoin Bridge route has been suspended, with the final loss still being calculated.
Therefore, the most important fact to study right now is: the scale of abnormal minting does not equal the scale of real loss.
What really needs to be verified is whether the remaining assets can be recovered, when the BTC routing will resume, and how the final review explains why cross-chain message verification failed. #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% $FLOCK $FLOKI $FLOW
The flock market experienced intense volatility. The 24-hour trading range was 0.06189‑0.08675, with the current price at 0.08191, a daily increase of 11.36%, ranking 3rd on the platform's new coin list.
The one-hour candlestick chart clearly shows the price surged to 0.08675 but faced resistance and fell back, quickly dipping to 0.06189 for a deep retracement, then funds flowed back in, pulling the price back near 0.08 with back-and-forth tugging. The new contract order book depth is weak, liquidity is insufficient, frequent long wicks occur intraday, stop losses for both longs and shorts are repeatedly triggered, resulting in prominent long-short liquidation, and high leverage easily leads to liquidation.
Contract account data shows retail shorts account for 61.19%, longs only 38.81%, with a long-short ratio of 0.63. Retail traders are heavily shorting, posing a potential risk of a short squeeze and washout. Technically, short-term resistance is at 0.08675, the supertrend lower band at 0.0704 is key support, and the current price is oscillating near the moving averages, with no clear winner between bulls and bears yet.
The coin's market is entirely driven by DeAI thematic sentiment, the project commercialization is still in the pilot stage, and a large amount of tokens are yet to be unlocked, posing mid-to-long-term unlocking selling pressure. During the contract's initial volatile period, leverage should be kept low. #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 South Korea's law is stuck behind the budget bill in the queue
South Korea's upcoming "Basic Digital Asset Act" was originally planned to be pushed through within the year.
Now it looks very likely to be postponed to the first half of next year.
Where is it stuck:
The National Assembly is first busy with the national audit, then busy with the budget bill.
The bill is behind them in the queue—not rejected, just not yet its turn.
How this is calculated:
This month is for public hearings, and it will only enter review in November.
There are two procedural steps in between, and that's how the time gets squeezed out.
The STO roadmap has already been divided into phases, and institutions are testing the system.
The regulatory discussion is shifting to implementation, but implementation depends on scheduling.
After the public hearing, the bill text will be reviewed clause by clause.
#CLARITY替代修正案公布，贝森特呼吁参院推进 $ZEC BTC
Without getting too caught up in the details of the move, what stood out for me once again was price rejecting from the 50W MA - which ive sold... once again...
Its a bull market if price can convincingly reclaim and find acceptance above it... ideally supported by strong passive flows, rather than simply shorts unwinding before price rolls over again - as per today..
Still a range until it isn’t...
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% Inflation data exceeded expectations, sending Bitcoin on a roller coaster ride. Core month-on-month rose 0.3%, and rate hike bets quickly heated up. Logically, tightening expectations suppress risk assets, but the market initially moves in the opposite direction: BTC surged sharply in the short term, ETH followed, forcing shorts to cover; then buying momentum faded, and prices retraced. Currently, there is significant divergence: one side sees year-on-year decline, cooling oil prices, and ETFs continuously attracting funds; the other side focuses on the approaching FOMC, high interest rates, and tightening liquidity. Amid hedging, neither rises nor falls have sustained momentum. Avoid chasing the sharp rally after data release, as it’s easy to catch a falling knife. Keep light positions before the meeting, don’t bet on a one-sided move. Spot holdings can be maintained, but use leverage cautiously. Wait for the FOMC outcome, then the direction will become clear. Save your bullets, don’t get shaken out by intraday noise. Two hours ago, the $ETH level of 2,510 was breached downward. The previous public judgment stated: after breaking below, if the rebound cannot hold above, treat it as a continuation of weakness. The current public market price is about 2,483, with an intraday low of 2,474; the first half of the condition has appeared, and now only the question remains whether the rebound can reclaim this level.
This should not be packaged as a "successful prediction." The previous round provided conditions, and the market has just touched the breakdown; only if the subsequent rebound continues to be suppressed will the weak structure be more complete. If the price quickly recovers above 2,510, today's breakdown judgment immediately becomes invalid.
My adjustment is: do not chase shorts near 2,474, nor rush to bottom-fish. I will wait to see the trading performance of the rebound; only after reclaiming 2,510 will I talk about recovery, and if the rebound fails, prioritize the risk.
Do you want to see if the rebound can reclaim 2,510, or first observe the support at 2,474? This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice.【$SOL breaks below 100, RSI falls below 14 — collective holding of breath before FOMC plays out simultaneously across multiple major coins】
SOL fell below the $100 integer mark today, dropping to 99.79, with RSI(6) hitting 13.97, a rare deep oversold reading recently, and no clear corresponding news catalyst found. This kind of decline driven purely by sentiment without specific news support is often harder to judge the bottom than a drop with clear negative news, because it’s not digesting a known bad event but discounting an outcome yet to be revealed.
Considering the current big picture: with only two days left until the September 15-16 FOMC, the market generally chooses to "reduce positions first, then wait and see" before major decisions, rather than heavily betting on a direction before the results are announced. Multiple major coins showing similar magnitude technical pullbacks at the same time usually indicates a market-wide position shrinkage, not a problem with the narrative of any single coin.
An extreme RSI reading of 13.97 theoretically means short-term selling pressure is quite sufficient, but before major macro events officially land, emotional venting often lasts longer than technical indicators suggest. The real directional confirmation will most likely only become clear after the FOMC decision is officially announced.
DYOR, this is not investment advice.
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温 After the launch of the new contract, the market experienced intense volatility. The 24-hour price range was 0.06189‑0.08675, with the current price at 0.08191, up 11.36% intraday, ranking 3rd on the platform's new coin list.
From the one-hour candlestick chart, it is clear that after the price surged to the high of 0.08675, it failed to continue upward, then quickly dropped to the low of 0.06189, completing a deep retracement, and later pulled back near 0.08.
The new contract has just started trading, with shallow order book depth and uneven liquidity distribution, causing frequent spikes during the session. Stop-loss orders on both long and short sides were repeatedly hit, resulting in a double liquidation; high-leverage accounts are very prone to liquidation.
Technically, the super trend upper band is at 0.1014, the lower band support at 0.0704, and the current price is running near the Bollinger middle band, with no clear short-term winner between bulls and bears.
The coin is driven by DeAI narrative speculation rather than fundamental factors. The short-term resistance is at 0.08675; only if it holds above this level is there a chance for further rally; if it breaks below the 0.0704 support, a new round of correction will begin. The new contract phase is not suitable for high-leverage speculation.
$FLOCK In this wave, do you expect a breakout above the previous high or continued consolidation?Weekend semiconductor and AI negative news intensifies, with the core issues being "supply disruption + demand doubts + high valuation."
· Semiconductor: Memory manufacturers have suspended price quotes, causing a "supply cut" in the supply chain; HPE states chip supply remains a bottleneck; DeepSeek reduces HBM usage; Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung and other memory stocks plunge; DRAM price hike expectations are revised downward, customers begin resisting high prices; the National IC Fund reduces holdings in Spreadtrum Communications, with major funds significantly flowing out.
· AI: OpenAI announces no IPO in 2026; Anthropic calls for AI "slowdown," with rare agreement from Musk and Altman; ECB President Lagarde warns of AI overvaluation; US-China AI regulatory competition escalates; Hong Kong AI model stocks under pressure.
· Micron: Taiwan factory union is brewing a strike, with over 80% member support, demanding reform of the bonus system; Micron proposes a 35–68 month salary bonus plan to quell unrest; if the strike happens, it will impact global DRAM and HBM supply.
· Oracle: AI cloud revenue surges, but capital expenditure is huge, free cash flow is negative, and gross margin declines; adds $700 million for restructuring and layoffs; $664 billion order fulfillment cycle is long, market worries about unsustainable AI spending.
Overall: On the supply side, there is a risk of Micron strike; on the demand side, Oracle's heavy spending raises doubts; combined with AI slowdown and valuation warnings, semiconductor and AI sectors sentiment is bearish on Monday. This isn’t simply a bet on a lower price. What caught my attention is that Uniswap’s token economics are becoming much more closely connected to the actual revenue generated by the protocol. Previously, that was one of my biggest concerns with UNI. Uniswap could process massive amounts of trading activity, but there was a relatively weak connection between that activity and direct value accruing to the UNI token. The situation is changing. Following the UNIfication governance upgrade, Uniswap ha$CORE Is CORE really a hopeless case? Disappointing everyone time and again.
Core DAO (CORE) Burn Situation
1. Largest single official burn (2026-09-03 v1.0.26 hard fork)
Over 150 million (150M+ CORE), due to a validator reward bug, burning the excess issued CORE. The official did not disclose the exact number, only stating 150 million+.
2. Routine fee/block reward burns
CORE originally had a fee burn mechanism similar to Ethereum, where each block reward plus transaction fees were burned according to the DAO's set ratio; however, the official has not released a cumulative total of fees burned. On-chain data can be queried block by block, but there is no unified summary.
The new whitepaper states: the project is gradually canceling the permanent burn mechanism; fees will no longer be sent to the burn address but will be used for network operations, validator incentives, and ecosystem funding.
3. Conclusion
- Confirmed one-time large burn: >150 million CORE
- No official cumulative total for early long-term fee burns, so no complete historical total burn figure
- CORE hard cap total supply: 2.1 billion tokens; this burn does not change the 2.1 billion hard cap, it only removes the excess issuance.Most people are focused on this move on the board, but I am calculating the pawn structure twenty moves ahead—$LRC In this game, Black has not gained a decisive advantage; they have only pushed a half-step pawn on the flank.
A 24-hour drop of 2.21% looks like a small-scale piece exchange, but looking at the piece arrangement: the short-term RSI has already fallen back to 33.4, just one elephant step away from the oversold zone; the long-term RSI is 46.7, steadily below the midline. This is a midgame stalemate, not an endgame collapse. In a collapse scenario, the long-term indicator would fail first.
The real information is hidden on the line. The short-term Bollinger Bands show the price standing at only 18% position, just 0.3% from the lower band—equivalent to my king being forced to the corner but still one step away; the mid-term is even more extreme, 11%, 0.9% from the lower band, while there is still a 6.6% gap above the upper band. The asymmetry is extreme; this is an open line. Once a heavy piece cuts in, the rebound speed will exceed most people's calculation depth.
So I don't chase. A grandmaster never chases a pawn that has already left the center.
My move is clear: wait for it to probe down another 4.7% to hit the entry point, let the opponent first damage the structure, then I will start from the counterattack point at the lower band. This is called regaining the initiative after a positional sacrifice.
📈 Long:
Entry: $0.01 (current price -4.7%)
Take Profit 1: $0.01 (+6.0%)
Take Profit 2: $0.01 (+6.6%)
Stop Loss: $0.01 (-16.0%)
The first target is only 6.0%, directly facing the 6.6% resistance line of the mid-term Bollinger Band upper band; the second target 6.6% is an extension of the same line, a passed pawn before promotion, to be exchanged once reached, no greed. Half of the first target is taken off the table first because in the midgame, the most valuable thing is not money, but initiative.
As for the stop loss set sixteen percentage points away—frankly, this requires courage. This is not a small exchange in the endgame, but leaving the king in the center and holding firm. Whoever presses with full force is like sending the queen prematurely into the opponent's firepower net. I will build my position gradually at a "three pawns for one elephant" pace, exchanging time advantage for spatial advantage, rather than going all-in on one line.
The current situation is: the short-term has given a buy signal, the long-term is still watching. Pieces are in place, initiative undecided. Whoever moves first bears the risk of being counterattacked. And I judge that the 0.3% lower band line can hold—because at this position, the bears no longer have enough pieces to complete a checkmate.ETH, SOL, and XRP all broke short-term lows, with the seven-coin trading volume dropping 8.41%
From 17:00 to 18:00, ETH, SOL, and XRP closed below 2488.17, 99.94, and 1.3457 respectively. The seven-coin sample trading volume was 44.7932 million USDT, down 8.41% sequentially, breaking support without volume confirmation across the full sample.
ETH holdings decreased by 49.9364 million USD. At least two coins remain below their breakdown lines in the next 1H candle, confirming weakness; if all three coins recover above, the breakdown is invalidated. When multiple coins break support and total trading volume contracts, which subsequent data would make you reconsider your judgment?
Source: OKX Spot and Derivatives API; as of 18:00, confirm=1. Sample: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, OKB, UNI.
#ETH #SOL #XRP #MainstreamCoins BTC’s relative resilience looks more defensive than bullish. A 0.72% decline versus steeper losses of 1.82% in ETH and 2.02% in SOL suggests risk appetite is tightening. My read: capital is favoring the largest asset, with limited evidence of conviction further out on the risk curve.
Not financial advice—just analysis.
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% We’ve seen this movie before. Ahead of the previous Fed decision, $ETH first dumped, then suddenly reversed higher and rallied nearly 200 points. Everyone started talking about a new bull run. And what happened after the meeting? Most of that entire move disappeared within just two days. The traders who chased the breakout near the top were left holding the bag. Now look at the current structure. ETH fell sharply from the 2667 area and has spent the last couple of days hovering around 2520. PricThe most dangerous part on a blueprint is not the load-bearing points marked in red, but the pile that everyone assumes will not settle. $LDO is currently conducting settlement monitoring—24 hours probing down 1.92%, and the market is beginning to question the pile's embedment depth.
First, let's clarify the structural load. The short-term RSI is at 37.8, which is not a collapse but a low-pressure state in a neutral zone; the long-term RSI is still at 61.9, indicating that the axial force of the main framework is still being transmitted upward. What really deserves attention is the position relationship of the Bollinger Bands: the short-term price is at the 38th percentile of the channel, only 1.3% from the lower band, and the upper band leaves you a clearance of just 2.1%—this is a construction surface compressed to the extreme, where any breakout in either direction will cause instantaneous deformation. The mid-term is even more critical; the price is at the 24th percentile of the channel, with a 2.8% buffer from the lower band but an 8.9% clearance to the upper band. In other words, below is a short-span dense ribbed floor slab that cannot be penetrated; above is a full-height atrium, which once opened up becomes a large open space.
This is my conclusion after performing structural verification on this building: the current pullback is not a crack but the pile foundation undergoing normal consolidation on the bearing layer. The real entry point should not chase the high zone but wait for it to fill back to the bearing platform elevation.
📈 Long:
Entry: 0.36 (current price -2.9%)
Take Profit 1: 0.39 (+3.8%)
Take Profit 2: 0.40 (+8.9%)
Stop Loss: 0.32 (-12.9%)
From the perspective of construction organization, the risk span of this trade is 12.9%, while the first target clearance is only 3.8%, so the margin for error is not wide. Therefore, I will not fully commit but do layered vibration—place the first batch at 0.36, and if volume shrinks around 0.34, add the next batch to compress the average cost near the centerline of the bearing platform. The stop loss is set at 0.32, which is the waterproof line of the basement exterior wall; once breached, it means the foundation is sliding rather than settling, invalidating all structural assumptions of the building, and the formwork must be dismantled and redone.
I have studied the underlying logic of the LDO chain for a long time: it is not a conceptual tower supported by a whitepaper facade; its load-bearing wall is the real sedimentation and liquidity premium of pledged assets. The recent short-term weakness is more like a pause during a construction elevator shift change, not a tower crane collapse. The mid-term asymmetric clearance of 2.8% below and 8.9% above is exactly the eccentric compression form that structural engineers prefer—dense backfill below and sufficient free segment above.
I do not predict the weather; I only verify the structure. As long as the settlement of a pile is within allowable deviation, the blueprint remains unchanged. #kelpdaobridgerevival#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $450 million from September 8 to 10. The 10th was the most intense day, with a single-day net outflow of $283 million, as BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, and ARK all withdrew. Just the previous week, from September 2 to 4, also three trading days, there was a net inflow of $1.01 billion. In just one week, the sentiment shifted decisively from accumulation to withdrawal.
Why the sudden change? Just look at the calendar. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision is on September 16, and the BTC and ETH quarterly options expire on September 25, with BTC options alone having a notional value as high as $14.39 billion. With these two major events looming, institutions are choosing to avoid risk first—a typical defensive move. Once funds withdraw, the market immediately reacts, surging then falling back, with upward momentum clearly weakening. Without continuous ETF inflows, the market cannot sustain a one-sided rally relying solely on on-exchange funds. Someone asked me if Dogecoin has a chance to become the next Bitcoin?
Comparing Bitcoin and Dogecoin in terms of winning or losing is asking the wrong question. One is digital gold, the other is digital copper coins; the former is for hoarding, the latter for spending—two tracks, two ways of life.
$BTC has high fees and slow confirmations, with a block every ten minutes, and on-chain transfers costing several dollars. This is not a flaw, but a positioning. Gold isn’t used to pay at convenience stores; it sits in vaults to preserve value. Bitcoin competes for gold’s market value: fixed supply, institutional holdings, ETF entry, following a store-of-value path. Being expensive and slow is part of this threshold.
$DOGE goes the opposite way. One-minute blocks, fees as low as a few cents, used for tipping, small payments, daily pocket money—transferring it doesn’t hurt. It targets the small payment segment, scenarios gold can’t cover—no one pays for coffee with gold bars, but copper coins can.
So this isn’t a life-or-death competition, but an ecological niche differentiation. Store of value and circulation are the two poles of the monetary system. More copper coins don’t affect the value of gold bars, and expensive gold bars don’t hinder copper coin circulation. One sets the ceiling, the other lays the floor; the market is big enough for both to go their own way. The research director at CoinShares put it bluntly: in the short term, CPI is suppressing it, but in the medium term, it could be pushed up by the Treasury's repo failure.
Core CPI for August rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than expected, and the market briefly priced in an 85% chance of the next rate hike. This is the immediate wall.
But what the opposing side should really watch is the other end: the repo failed to suppress long-term yields, and if it continues to fail, larger-scale intervention will be on the table, and currency depreciation trades will return.
What I admire is this approach of separating the two directions, not taking sides, just marking their respective effective conditions.
The short-term ceiling is below $80,000, and the medium-term bullishness still depends on "if it continues."
So the question now is not whether to be bullish or bearish, but which condition you plan to wait to be fulfilled first?
#PPI, CPI released, multiple institutions raise September rate hike expectations #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% LSK has stunned people these past few days.😱
Today I suddenly realized something: some projects aren’t dead, they just tear down the old house to move into a new store.🤔️
The chain officially announced it would shut down on October 31, yet the coin has been crazily driven up by capital. The coin was forcibly pulled up to around $1.4. Many people's first reaction was, "If it’s delisting, why bother trading?" But looking at the timeline more broadly, it seems more like a hard transformation being revalued by the market.
Lisk has been working on public chain/L2 for ten years, realizing that relying on issuing coins to support the ecosystem only leads to more selling and the chain failing to heat up.
So they shut down the old chain when it expired and changed the business to a capital operation platform for corporate finance teams, integrating bank transfers and stablecoins into one account, with approval, payment, and cross-border settlement all on one workstation.
The underlying USD balance runs on USDL issued by Bridge under Stripe, so fiat and on-chain money don’t need to be shuffled back and forth. #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% $BTC may have already printed the daily low.
the $76.7K area lines up with both the mVWAP and the 0.618 Fib measured from the recent high — a pretty clean confluence.
for me, that makes this zone interesting for a potential reversal.
I’m mainly watching Sunday evening into Monday Asia for the move to show its hand. Staring at the screen waiting for a data point, the core CPI came in at 0.3%, slightly higher than expected. The feeling at that moment was not anger, but a reaffirmation: short-term direction is never decided by holders.
The chain is actually clear. Inflation readings are high, rate hike bets once reached 85%, and $BTC's immediate upside was suppressed. But at the same time, the Treasury's expansion of bond repurchases did not suppress long-term yields; this failure is more critical—it means subsequent interventions might be larger, and concerns about currency depreciation actually support $BTC and gold.
So in the short term, there is a limit below 80,000, but the mid-term logic is moving in the opposite direction.
What really needs attention is the long-term yield: if it continues not to fall, this mid-term chain holds; if repurchases start to take effect, the judgment must be overturned.
#PPI, CPI released, multiple institutions raised September rate hike expectations
#BTC spot ETF outflows near $450 million in three days #US Treasury yields approach 5%, repurchases struggle to ease long-term pressure $BTC #SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% If a whale had just sold over $300,000 and the coin price surged vertically two minutes later, then what really matters next isn't how bad he is, but what his new position has exposed. Guess what he's most struggling with right now is floating losses or direction? I've been staring at this set of data for a long time. On the surface, it seems like he's repeatedly on the wrong pace, but beneath it, the derivatives structure is sending very different signals. He last took a loss of 320,000 U and exited, and two minutes later the market soared. Such timing is so coincidental that it's normal for the community to go wild. But more importantly, he didn't stop. Once his emotions calmed, he immediately spread out his positions, going long across multiple coins at once. But the market reversed, and now the four positions have a combined floating loss of 971,600 U. Breaking it down: ETH 30x long order, open position 6,445.312 coins, open position 2,538.99, current price 2,520.13, floating loss about 121,500 USD. CP 2x long order, 26 million coins, position opened 0.0173, current price 0.01405, floating loss about 84,300 USD. BTC 50x long order, 200 tokens, open position 79,872.4, current price 77,197.5, floating loss about 535,000 USD. DOGE 10x long order, 45.06 million coins, open position 0.08983, current price 0.0847, floating loss about 230,800 USD. The most striking part here is not the loss figure, but the leverage distribution. BTC at fifty times, ETH at thirty times—these two mainstream assets have huge long exposures, showing he's betting not on slow recovery, but on a quick reboundLate session funds are starting to reposition. Who will grab tonight's first baton among BNB, DOGE, and SUI?
#After the release of PPI and CPI, multiple institutions have raised their expectations for a September rate hike
The market looks like a mall elevator after dinner; the downstairs isn't crowded yet, but several popular floors already have people pressing the button early—BNB, DOGE, and SUI are all waiting for late session funds to choose a direction. This spot is prone to early moves, but a sudden surge only proves someone is testing the waters. Only if the price holds after the pull-up does it show that the following funds are truly willing to join.
#BTC spot ETF outflows near $450 million in three days
$BNB still acts like a ballast stone; its volatility may not be the most eye-catching, but as long as it holds the lows, funds dare to rotate around it; DOGE is an emotion amplifier—once trading heats up suddenly, it easily drags in the wait-and-see players, but after surging, it must not quickly retreat; SUI is more aggressive—if the market gives a little room, high Beta funds may pile directly onto it.
Bulls are waiting for three signals: BNB actively pushing higher, $DOGE standing firm after volume expansion, and SUI breaking resistance and continuing to rotate. If any two appear, late session risk appetite may continue to heat up; bears are waiting for a false breakout in SUI, then to see if DOGE's sentiment-driven funds retreat.
Looking ahead, upward moves depend on BNB stabilizing the market, DOGE igniting, and $SUI accelerating; downward moves depend on DOGE losing momentum first and SUI falling back to the consolidation zone. Anyone can grab the first baton in the late session, but true strength is running ahead and then looking back to see more funds chasing to get on board.The UK-listed company The Smarter Web Company (LSE: SWC) plans to issue perpetual preferred shares "MORE" on the London Stock Exchange main board, targeting to raise approximately £15–25 million (with a minimum threshold of £10 million to launch). It claims to be the UK's first GBP-denominated perpetual preferred shares linked to a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Holders receive cumulative floating weekly preferred dividends plus liquidation preference but have no voting rights; dividend sources may include operating cash flow, cash reserves, Bitcoin holdings, and refinancing. The shareholders' meeting is scheduled for 9/28 for approval, and FCA prospectus approval is also required. The company holds about 2,747 BTC but has not specified that this fundraising is exclusively for increasing holdings—leaning more towards acquisitions and working capital. The crypto treasury is diverging: some continue buying coins, while others innovate structurally using preferred shares. #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ $BTC Here's some arbitrage tips for the bros!
【Calendar Spread Arbitrage · Same Coin Different Month Price Spread】
📌 Applicable: When there is a stable price spread window between the same coin's current month and next month contracts.
🔍 Five steps to operate:
1️⃣ Monitor: Observe the percentage price spread between current and next month, record the median over three days.
2️⃣ Entry: Only act when the spread expands ≥0.25% and the trend continues for two consecutive days.
3️⃣ Positioning: Take equal and opposite positions (long current month + short next month, or vice versa), equal position size is key.
4️⃣ Holding: Do not hold overnight; proactively close positions the day before settlement to avoid delivery liquidation.
5️⃣ Exit: Close all positions once the spread returns to the median ±0.05%, do not hold on.
⚖️ Fee calculation: Net profit per set = spread profit − both sides' fees − both sides' funding costs − withdrawal bridging fees. Cut positions immediately if net profit is negative after fees.
🚦 Three red lines:
• Single set position ≤ 5% of total position;
• If spread reverses and expands over 0.5% for two consecutive days, close all positions;
• If any leg's forced liquidation warning reaches 80%, immediately reduce positions proportionally.
💡 Perspective: Compared to spot-futures arbitrage, calendar spread arbitrage does not bet on direction but on changes in the term structure. The threshold is low but requires disciplined monitoring and fee calculation skills. Beginners should start with the smallest position for a month before scaling up. Why is it not advisable to frequently open positions in the crypto market over the weekend?
Traditional financial markets are closed on weekends, ETFs and institutional funds pause, professional market-making teams reduce participation, order books thin out, and the market is dominated by retail investors and a few market makers, resulting in significantly weakened overall support.
First, transaction quality declines. Prices that are usually easily filled during the week may only be partially filled on weekends, with the remaining portion slipping to worse levels; the same applies when closing positions, where take-profit and stop-loss orders may not execute at planned prices.
Second, price noise increases. In a thin market, a few large orders can cause sharp rises and falls, frequent false breakouts and long wicks appear, reducing the reliability of chart signals, making chasing orders prone to buying at the peak and selling at the bottom.
Third, sudden news impacts are greater. If regulatory, security, or macro surprises occur over the weekend, the lack of counterparties can cause the market to swing dramatically in an instant, making it difficult to exit positions due to insufficient opposing orders.
Fourth, Monday gap risk. Holding positions over the weekend may lead to gaps on Monday when trading resumes, skipping preset stop-loss or take-profit levels, resulting in actual losses exceeding expectations.
Conclusion: It’s not that there are no opportunities on weekends, but the margin for error is low and randomness is high. It’s better to wait for the weekday market to recover depth and clearer signals before trading, prioritizing more liquid assets like BTC and ETH.
The above is only personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 $ETH $BTC $ZEC The reason I believe $BTC deserves attention is its proof-of-work settlement layer, which provides finality, censorship resistance, and a globally verifiable ledger. Most protocols typically offer only one or two of these properties, but Bitcoin combines all three at the base layer. That unique combination is what makes it worth watching as a foundational network.
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OracleAICloudUp121% At Sunday's close, BTC was 76,752, down 0.8% in 24 hours, down 3.9% over seven days. ETH was at 2,483, down 1.9%. Basically flat for seven days. SOL at 99.8, then fell back below 100. The total market was 2.71 trillion, down 1.2%. BTC dominance was still at 56.9%. Money was still sitting on the safest chair, not getting up. Yesterday I wrote that SOL just broke 100. If it breaks out, you have to hold for three days to count. Don't rush to add on the first day. Today it fell back down, holding for less than two days. That's not how accurate my prediction was Liquidity is thin over the weekend—if someone lifts it casually, it can cross the threshold. If no one picks up on Monday, you just slip down. Weekend breakouts basically require a retest. The real numbers worth mentioning today aren't on the K-line. The US spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net outflows for four consecutive trading days, with a total outflow of $462.6 million this week. Last week, net inflows were close to $1 billion. Within a week, the market went from rushing to buy to lining up, with no explosive news in between. This is the biggest difference between retail investors and institutions Retail investors look at prices to determine sentiment, institutions look at interest rates to determine positions. This week, prices barely moved, but funds have quietly shifted positions. It's kind of like that relationship. On the surface, you two still chat every day and reply instantly, but the other side has started scheduling weekends for others. The problem is never chat records, but time allocation. So don't just focus on price changes. ETF flows are a thermometer of institutional attitudes—they speak before prices. Looking ahead, this weekIs $BTC a short yet? BTC is hovering near $77K after pulling back ~4% from this week’s $80.45K high. For now, the structure looks weak but not broken. $76K is the key line: hold it and BTC could reclaim $78.5K, then retest $80–80.5K. A volume breakout above $80.5K could target $82–85K. Lose $76K and fail to reclaim it, and $74–75K comes into focus, with $72K possible. With the Fed meeting ahead, I’d avoid chasing shorts near $77K. Watch $76K closely.#SeptHikeOddsHit90% #BTCSpotETF450MOutflow $LSK is not a fundamental change. Although the DAO treasury said it destroyed 25% of its 100 million tokens, which sounds great, it doesn't change the circulating supply!
This is a zombie coin's fake revival narrative and shouldn't be seen as a fundamental value change. This positive news is artificially created by the whales to have a reason to pump the price and to trick retail investors into buying.
On-chain TVL is only $139K, DEX 24h volume is $1,700, revenue $3.88. You read that right, and I’m not exaggerating—there’s basically no one using it on-chain.
Because the circulating tokens are all in the hands of the whales, they can pump it as high as they want or dump it whenever they want; it’s just about maximizing their profit.
Now the RSI is at 98, which means the whales have succeeded.Crude Oil Trend
Currently, crude oil is experiencing intense fluctuations at a high level, with an overall strong bias.
WTI: Latest around $100 per barrel
Brent: Around $104.6 per barrel; briefly surged to about $110 last Monday
Last week, oil prices rose more than 8%, mainly influenced by the Middle East situation, transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on Saudi energy facilities.
The biggest variable today remains the situation in the Strait of Hormuz: if transportation is further obstructed, oil prices may still surge; if diplomatic negotiations make progress, a rapid decline may occur.
My short-term judgment
Bullish bias, but not recommended to chase the highs.
Key levels to watch for WTI:
$100: Psychological threshold and short-term dividing line between bulls and bears
$102–104: After stabilizing above, may challenge previous highs again
$107–113: Important resistance/target zone above
$93–95: If it falls below $100, this may become an important support in the next phase
Technically, Reuters points out an important gap near $107.77 above WTI; if it breaks through and maintains strength, the next target could be $111–113; on the downside, watch $102, $100, and $93.5.
**Key risk:** The current rise in oil prices is largely driven by geopolitical factors rather than pure demand growth, so if the Strait of Hormuz situation eases, oil prices may experience a very rapid pullback. Meanwhile, the EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to reach about 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026, and increased supply will limit medium- to long-term gains. #美国柴油价格首次突破6美元 #日银年内再加息成焦点 $BTC Bitcoin usually only becomes “clear” to the majority after a big move has occurred.
Currently, the market continues to filter out impatient investors, while liquidity is gradually being accumulated at lower price levels.
If BTC breaks out of the accumulation zone with strong enough momentum, market sentiment can reverse within just a few hours.
The issue is not about guessing each candlestick correctly, but whether you have prepared your position before the market confirms — or will you chase after when everything is already too obvious?
#BTCBTC's relative resilience looks defensive, not bullish. A 0.72% decline against losses of 1.82% in ETH and 2.02% in SOL suggests risk appetite is narrowing. My read: this is a market favoring the largest asset, with little evidence of conviction further out on the risk curve.
Not advice, just analysis.$BTC $ETH $SOL
Bitcoin's rise drives a slight rebound in long-term holder activity, overall still relatively calm in 2026
On September 13, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that this cycle might be the most active cycle for Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH). He observed related changes through the CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) heatmap, an indicator that counts the number of days BTC is held before being spent or transferred; transfers by long-term holders usually indicate selling intent. The increased LTH activity this cycle may benefit from spot ETFs and companies building Bitcoin treasury reserves, bringing more market liquidity. However, a rise in CDD does not only appear at market tops; it may also reflect some holders surrendering. He added that Coinbase previously transferred 800,000 BTC, with many tokens held for over 6 months, and such asset movements can cause short-term CDD spikes but are considered isolated events. Currently, with Bitcoin's recent rise, LTH activity has slightly increased, possibly because some holders want to take quick profits; but overall, related activity in 2026 remains relatively calm, with long-term holders still waiting. whale divergence increases. Some addresses transfer large amounts of BTC to exchanges during price rebounds to realize profits; meanwhile, another group of long-term whales continue withdrawing coins from exchanges to cold wallets during pullbacks, showing clear high-level chip turnover. Combined with continuous ETF outflows, short-term institutional whales tend to reduce exposure overall, with no significant one-sided bottom-fishing actions, awaiting the outcome of the interestI DON’T EXPECT THE MARKET TO FLUSH IMMEDIATELY.
There could be one more push higher first:
Rally → confidence grows → FOMO returns → traders get comfortable → then the flush.
If that happens, these are the levels I’ll watch:
🟠 $BTC → $74K
🟣 $ZEC → $750
🔵 $ETH → $2,350
🟢 $SOL → $95
⚫ $HYPE → $73
Scenario, not prediction. I’m tracking liquidity and structure while staying ready for either direction.
Patience > FOMO.
#SeptHikeOddsHit90% Staring at the screen waiting for a data point, the core CPI came in at 0.3%, slightly higher than expected. The feeling at that moment was not anger, but another confirmation: the short-term direction is never decided by holders.
The chain is actually clear. Inflation readings are high, rate hike bets once reached 85%, and $BTC's immediate upside was suppressed. But at the same time, the Treasury's expansion of bond buybacks did not suppress long-term yields, and this failure is more critical—it means subsequent interventions may be larger, and concerns about currency depreciation actually support $BTC and gold.
So in the short term, there is a limit below 80,000, but the mid-term logic is moving in the opposite direction.
What really needs attention is the long-term yield: if it continues not to fall, this mid-term chain holds; if buybacks start to take effect, the judgment must be overturned.
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 #美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力 $BTC BTC ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive days, while ETH ETFs are aggressively attracting funds. This is not a coincidence; it's a rotation of capital.
On September 12, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $13.28 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of losses. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $216 million on the same day, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $149 million.
The core CPI for August rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike in September to 90%. Both Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have changed their stance from "no change" to "expecting a 25 basis point hike." BTC was hammered from above 80,500 down to around 77,000, dropping 3.3% in a week. However, ETH barely fell, with ETFs continuously attracting funds and the price holding steady around 2,500.
There is also an on-chain detail: a whale who had been dormant for 8 months bought 1,075 BTC over 4 days by spending 85.42 million USDC at an average price of 79,412. This whale had sold off 50,000 ETH at an average price of 2,921 at the end of last year, making a profit of 19 million. Now, he has swapped ETH for BTC.
My personal judgment is that in the short term, ETH shows more capital elasticity, while in the medium term, BTC has the whale bottom.
With a 90% chance of a rate hike fully priced in, the negative factors are basically accounted for, but capital flows don't lie—BTC ETFs are bleeding, ETH ETFs are filling up. If no black swan events occur after the CLARITY vote on the 15th and the FOMC meeting on the 16th, ETH will have greater short-term elasticity than BTC. But don't overlook that whale; those who built positions with real money above 79,000 are looking at a longer timeframe $FLOCK contract account data worth noting:
The one-day cycle long-short account ratio shows short accounts have reached 61.19%, longs only 38.81%, with a long-short ratio of 0.63. Retail short positions significantly exceed long positions. FLO itself is a highly elastic thematic coin, and retail investors concentrating on one-sided bearish views often increase the probability of sharp spikes designed to trap them. The market repeatedly experiences sharp spikes up and down, driven by sentiment trading without fundamental support.
Currently, the overall bullish structure is not yet broken, but volume continues to shrink, short forces steadily rise, and the market has entered a phase of long-short contention. Privacy coins rely entirely on hot sentiment; once the main trend recedes, the pullback speed will be rapid.
Going forward, focus on volume; only a volume breakout above resistance will allow upward movement; if support fails, the correction will further intensify.
With FLO retail shorts clustered, do you think this will trigger a short squeeze rally? $BTC $ETH $ZEC
The more storage prices rise, the more worried I become about the downstream.
In this cycle, the strongest in semiconductors is clearly storage.
DRAM, NAND, HBM prices are rising; $SNDK, MU, SK Hynix are all benefiting from AI expansion, but the problem is obvious:
The more storage prices surge, the costs will ultimately be passed on to servers, phones, and PCs.
So now, I’m less concerned about "how much longer storage can keep rising" and more about:
When the downstream will start to buckle.
Whether high Beta semiconductor ETFs like $SOXL can continue to surge essentially depends on whether AI expansion and liquidity can keep supporting it.
The crypto space is actually similar; BTC and ETH recently have also been driven by risk appetite and liquidity logic.
So the most critical question now isn’t "can it keep rising," but rather:
Is this the mid-phase of a super cycle, or the final acceleration?Long positions wiped out 320 million! $BTC $ETH The capital trend is completely reversed
BTC retreated from the CPI night high of 79,880 and is now weakly oscillating near 77,300, with a sharp drop triggering a wave of liquidations.
Coinglass's data is clear: in the past 24 hours, $436 million was liquidated across the network. The majority were long positions—323 million were swept up, and only 114 million was short, clearly targeting bulls chasing highs.
Interestingly, the distribution of liquidations: ETH liquidations totaled 141 million, higher than BTC's 53.96 million. Compared to the CPI night of the frenzied short squeezes, the market landscape reversed sharply, and funds chasing earlier gains are now being slashed one after another.
A rare situation occurred on the capital side: BTC spot ETFs saw outflows for four consecutive days, losing 14.36 million yuan in a single day. However, ETH instead attracted funds wildly, with a net inflow of 223 million yuan in a single day, while BlackRock's ETHA product alone brought in 136 million yuan.
In short: the funds haven't left the crypto world, they've just moved from BTC to ETH.
Macroeconomic pressure is also mounting, with the probability of a rate hike in September priced at 76%. Traders predict several more hikes ahead, putting overall pressure on risk assets. CPI and PPI data have already been released, and the Fed's decision is the biggest hurdle.
#PPI. After the CPI was released, many institutions raised their expectations for a rate hike in September
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4 50 million USD 📌 $ETH This rebound is fueled by short covering, not genuine buying. Once the short positions are fully cleared, if there is no spot demand to follow through, losing price support is just a matter of time.
📌 Both PPI and CPI are hot, making a rate hike almost certain. Multiple investment banks have collectively shifted their stance; the market is no longer debating "whether to hike," but "how many times to hike."
📌 The 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%, and funds are being pulled out of risk assets. Rising Treasury yields are purely negative for the stock and crypto markets, and the capital siphoning effect has already begun.
A rebound ≠ a reversal. The surge caused by short liquidation comes fast and goes fast.
Do you think ETH can hold steady at $2,500? Share your judgment in the comments below 👇
#PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
#财报观察员：甲骨文AI云收入增121% ETH at $2480, are you ready to buy the dip?
First, look at the surface: a spike followed by a pullback, retail investors are complaining.
After Friday's CPI, ETH surged to 2665, and the whole network was shouting "3000 is not a dream." What happened? It was hammered back to 2480 in two days, a 7% drop. The candlestick tells you: the high-volume bullish candle on September 11 was a classic "liquidity sweep false breakout," a bull trap that lured buyers and then crushed the chase.
First thing: ETFs are buying, Wintermute is selling, who do you trust?
On September 11, the US spot ETH ETF had a net inflow of $216 million, with BlackRock ETHA alone contributing $149 million. The overall weekly inflow contrasts sharply with the continuous outflow from BTC ETFs — capital is rotating from BTC to ETH.
But on the same day, Wintermute transferred $160 million worth of ETH to exchanges, interpreted by the market as potential selling pressure or market-making hedging. Whales are also offloading.
Second thing: 34% of ETH is locked up, circulating supply is drying up.
The staking ratio has risen to 34%, with over 41 million ETH locked. Corporate treasuries like Bitmine continue to accumulate and stake, nearing 4.9% of circulating supply. Tom Lee still says: ETH is the settlement layer, the infrastructure for AI and Wall Street.
The Glamsterdam upgrade will land in 2026, raising the gas limit to 200 million, enabling parallel execution, ePBS, doubling L1 throughput. L2, RWA, and stablecoin settlements all run on the ETH ecosystem.
ETH is now an interest-bearing asset, a foundational asset for institutional allocation.
Third thing: FOMC rate hike, the first since 2023.
August CPI year-over-year is 3.4%, core stickiness remains. The federal funds rate is 3.50%-3.75%. For the FOMC on September 15-16, the probability of a 25bp hike has surged above 80%.
This is the first rate hike expectation since 2023, a major shift after the 2025 rate cut cycle.
Rate hike = liquidity withdrawal = pressure on risk assets
If the tone is hawkish and the dot plot is revised upward, ETH could drop to 2400 or even 2350.
If the hike happens but the tone is dovish, the "bad news is priced in," and a rebound to 2600+ is possible.
Bull vs. bear, you decide.
On one side:
ETH ETFs continue net inflows, BlackRock $149 million in a single day
34% staked and locked, circulating supply shrinking
Corporate treasuries accumulating, Tom Lee bullish
Mid-term structure bullish, monthly chart still uptrend
On the other side:
Wintermute transferred 160 million ETH, market makers selling
Whales offloading, short-term selling pressure real
FOMC hike probability 80%, liquidity tightening risk
2550 failed three times, 2665 was a false breakout
Resistance above: 2500-2550 (upper box) → 2600-2665 (previous high) → 2700
Support below: 2470-2480 (today's low) → 2425-2430 (20-day MA) → 2400 (psychological level)
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Light long positions at 2480-2470, stop loss below 2420, target 2520-2550. If breaking and holding above 2550, add positions targeting 2600-2665.
If rebound stalls at 2520-2550, light short positions with stop loss at 2580, target 2480-2430. Suitable for hedging existing positions, avoid heavy one-sided shorts.
Swing traders:
After FOMC decision, if hike but dovish tone, follow the trend to go long; if hawkish beyond expectations, wait for a drop to 2400-2350 to scale in.
Long-term believers:
Buy and hold below 2400. Staking lockup + ETF inflows + upgrade rollout, mid-term target 3000-3500.
ETH now is like Bitcoin in 2020 —
Everyone thought it couldn't rise, but ETFs and staking have drained the circulating supply.
The day 2550 breaks,
you'll realize:
It's not that ETH is weak, it's that you kept getting scared into selling before FOMC.
At 2480, do you dare to buy the dip?
$ETH $BTC $ZEC $BTC currently quoted at about $77.4K. Looking at this year's trading distribution, the $77.8K–$81.1K is currently a clear long-term supply zone, with a large number of chips turning over here. Therefore, every time the price rebounds into this area, selling may occur again. 📊 Recently, spot ETFs have seen weak capital flows for several consecutive trading days, echoing the current supply pressure above, indicating institutional funds remain cautious in the short term. If the market continues to move sideways over the weekend, it does not mean the structure has turned bearish: 🔹 $75.2K → short-term bullish defense 🔹 at $79.1K → first breakout 🔹 confirmation level at $80.8K–$81.4K → Major supply zone 🔹 at $83.6K → Key resistance for further strengthening of the medium-term trend As long as $BTC holds $75.2K, the overall structure remains intact. However, if the price continues to fail to break back above $79.1K, then it should be understood as a technical rebound rather than the start of a new trend. ⚠️ The focus is not on guessing the top, but on whether the price can truly consume the upper supply with volume #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #DailyOrbitI haven't been paying close attention to the market these past two days and missed some of the price action. Looking back now at Ethereum's movement, Wave 1 is actually complete.
I really didn't expect Ethereum to surge above 2600 and trigger a short squeeze. I originally thought that only when Bitcoin reached 82800 would Ethereum have a chance to hit 2620. The reality is, 【the selling pressure above Bitcoin is too heavy.】
There are two important upcoming time points: In the early morning of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision; then on September 18, the Bank of Japan will announce its rate decision.
Before these two announcements, funds will most likely move to avoid risk in advance. So next week, I am more inclined to expect a round of decline, a Wave 2 correction.
But personally, I believe 【the 73K–75K range, and right-side long positions confirmed after a bottom near 75K, can still be traded.】 Although Bitcoin faces heavy selling pressure, there is also strong buying support below.
I am not optimistic about a Fed rate hike, but the statements at that time may be hawkish. After the news is released and hawkish expectations are fully priced in, we will see how the market moves. Even if it rises again, I currently only see 82K as a target because the current correction is not strong enough.
The above content is only my personal market analysis and trading ideas and does not constitute any investment advice. Please control your position size and risk according to your own situation. On the afternoon of September 14, the market overall showed weak fluctuations, with BTC pressured around $77,200, repeatedly grinding sideways. The bulls lacked strength to push higher, and selling pressure above continued to accumulate. ETH was consolidating sideways around the $2,520 range, with short-term elasticity weakening. The mainstream market overall saw reduced volume and consolidation, lacking momentum to continue upward.
The core underlying logic of this round of fluctuations comes from traditional finance benchmarking and catching up with the crypto market.
The biggest financial advantage of the crypto circle is that BTC and ETH trade 24/7 nonstop, with no market close and no gaps, which is the fundamental reason why global speculative and institutional funds favor the crypto market.
However, recently, global stock markets have collectively reformed to extend trading hours, continuously compressing the unique advantages of the crypto circle. The short-term high-frequency funds originally settled in BTC and ETH have begun to be diverted and absorbed by traditional stock markets, directly causing the recent continuous shrinkage of market volume and the market's inability to break through.
From the market structure perspective, the mid-term bullish structure of BTC and ETH still exists, but the upward momentum has clearly weakened. The bearish forces are steadily increasing, and the market has shifted from a one-sided bullish bias to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
At this stage, there is no clear trend direction; it is a high-level shakeout and turnover consolidation phase. As long as volume cannot be effectively released, mainstream coins will find it difficult to start a new major upward trend.
Overall, the barriers between traditional finance and the crypto market are continuously narrowing, and subsequent cross-market linked fluctuations will become more frequent, with market volatility continuing to expand. In the short term, it is mainly a wait-and-see approach to choose direction #PPI、CPI公布后，多家机构上调9月加息预期