#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
About FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
After its first 25bp hike in over three years, the Fed may not be done. CME puts the odds of another 25bp move in October at 55.4%, while the dot plot shows most officials expect at least one more hike this year. Energy, tariffs and AI infrastructure spending are keeping inflation hot, but growth, jobs and earnings remain resilient. With the 10-year yield above 5% and 30-year mortgage rates at 6.95%, are stocks and BTC truly absorbing higher rates, or betting this was a one-off?
Hot
Latest
FedOctHikeOddsHit55% Popular posts
Pinned
Morgan Stanley's Interpretation of Interest Rate Hikes: Will There Be More Rate Hikes?
TL; DR
The Fed's 25 basis point rate hike in September was expected, but Morgan Stanley believes this move should not be simply interpreted as a one-time policy adjustment.
From the Fed's decision-making logic, once the long pause ends and rate hikes resume, the committee usually considers a series of actions rather than believing that 25 basis points is enough to change the macro outlook.
However, a large part of current inflation comes from supply-side factors such as tarif
Bitcoin faced two major negative events within 48 hours: procedural voting obstruction of the CLARITY Act and a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, yet the price still showed some resilience, dropping once to a monthly low of about $75,900 and currently holding around $76,500. QCP pointed out that Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $450 million and $296 million on September 15 and 16 respectively, but reversed to a net inflow of $159 million on the 17th#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
The Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike, yet $BTC and $ETH showed limited downside.
➤ $BTC sits near $75.8K after testing $75.3K. $75K remains the key support, while $77.5K is the level bulls need to reclaim.
➤ $ETH trades around $2.38K, stuck between $2.37K and $2.43K. $2.35K is support, with $2.45K overhead.
For now, the market looks cautious, not panicked.
#NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve
#LongYields5%NewNormal Rate cuts aren't pulling long-term borrowing costs down 👀
The Fed cut 25bps, yet the 10-year returned near 5% and the 30-year stayed above it.
What caught my attention is the disconnect. Short rates can follow the Fed while long yields increasingly price growth, AI capital demand, inflation and term premium independently.
If 5% becomes the new floor, the real question isn't how fast the Fed cuts. It's how expensive capital stays for stocks, AI and crypto.
Everyone expected a rate hike to hurt risk assets.
But the opposite happened.
US stocks had their best day in six weeks, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.93%.
That tells us something:
Markets don’t only react to the rate decision.
They react to what the decision says about future inflation and Fed credibility.
For BTC, watch inflation expectations and long-term yields—not just the headline rate.
Is the market starting to trust the Fed again?
The market is holding up better than I expected after the Fed hike.
$BTC is around $76.5K, while $ETH is near $2.47K and $SOL is around $101.5. OKX is showing large buy and sell orders appearing around these levels, which tells me the battle for direction is still active.
The Fed raised rates by 25bps, but crypto absorbed the initial shock without a major breakdown.
Now I’m watching one thing:
Can buyers keep absorbing the selling?
If yes, momentum can build.#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
$BTC x $ETH post-Fed 📊
Fed delivered a 25bps hike, unanimous, with Warsh sounding hawkish. The move was largely priced in—no major dump, but no breakout either.
$BTC ~ $75.8K, wick to $75.3K. $75K is key support; lose it and $73K comes into focus. Bulls need $77.5K back.
$ETH ~ $2.38K, holding $2.37K–$2.43K. $2.45K resistance, $2.35K floor.#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
The real pressure on $BTC may be coming from U.S. Treasuries, not bears.
With the 10Y yield above 4.8% and a divided Fed, the macro backdrop remains challenging.
When risk-free yields approach 5%, Bitcoin needs a stronger narrative to compete for capital.
$ETH $SOL
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
Why crypto is pumping
The hike was already priced in, so the sell-off happened ahead of the print.
Shorts got squeezed, oil cooled off, and altcoins led the move — especially ZEC, HYPE, and DeFi.
This doesn’t look like fresh liquidity entering the market. Rates actually moved higher, while ETFs are still seeing outflows.
$80K BTC remains the key level.
For now, this looks more like a relief rally than a regime change.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
🔥 FED HIKE, BUT CRYPTO STAYS STEADY
The Fed raised rates by 25bps, but $BTC and $ETH avoided a major selloff.
➤ $BTC is around $75.8K after dipping to $75.3K. $75K remains key support, while bulls need to reclaim $77.5K.
➤ $ETH trades near $2.38K, holding the $2.37K–$2.43K range. $2.35K is support, with $2.45K as the next resistance.
For now, the market looks cautious rather than panicked. 📊
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #OKX1MillionStrategist
$BTC x $ETH post-Fed 📊
Fed delivered a 25bps hike, unanimous, with Warsh sounding hawkish. The move was largely priced in—no major dump, but no breakout either.
$BTC ~ $75.8K, wick to $75.3K. $75K is key support; lose it and $73K comes into focus. Bulls need $77.5K back.
$ETH ~ $2.38K, holding $2.37K–$2.43K. $2.45K resistance, $2.35K floor.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
加密貨幣888
ZEC has clearly entered an independent market phase in this wave.
🔥【ZEC Market Flash On one side, ZCSH ($ZEC Spot ETF) AUM has surpassed $700 million, with spot capital attention continuously increasing; on the other side, $ZEC derivatives OI is rapidly growing, indicating market leverage is also concentrating. The current $ZEC situation can be summarized as: ETF spot demand 🟢 + high leverage 🔥 = high volatility market Next, focus on 3 key signals: ① Whether ZCSH holdings continue to increase ② Whether $ZEC can hold at high levels ③ Whether OI experiences a