#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
About FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
After its first 25bp hike in over three years, the Fed may not be done. CME puts the odds of another 25bp move in October at 55.4%, while the dot plot shows most officials expect at least one more hike this year. Energy, tariffs and AI infrastructure spending are keeping inflation hot, but growth, jobs and earnings remain resilient. With the 10-year yield above 5% and 30-year mortgage rates at 6.95%, are stocks and BTC truly absorbing higher rates, or betting this was a one-off?
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Morgan Stanley's Interpretation of Interest Rate Hikes: Will There Be More Rate Hikes?
TL; DR
The Fed's 25 basis point rate hike in September was expected, but Morgan Stanley believes this move should not be simply interpreted as a one-time policy adjustment.
From the Fed's decision-making logic, once the long pause ends and rate hikes resume, the committee usually considers a series of actions rather than believing that 25 basis points is enough to change the macro outlook.
However, a large part of current inflation comes from supply-side factors such as tarif
Bitcoin faced two major negative events within 48 hours: procedural voting obstruction of the CLARITY Act and a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, yet the price still showed some resilience, dropping once to a monthly low of about $75,900 and currently holding around $76,500. QCP pointed out that Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $450 million and $296 million on September 15 and 16 respectively, but reversed to a net inflow of $159 million on the 17th#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
The Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike, yet $BTC and $ETH showed limited downside.
➤ $BTC sits near $75.8K after testing $75.3K. $75K remains the key support, while $77.5K is the level bulls need to reclaim.
➤ $ETH trades around $2.38K, stuck between $2.37K and $2.43K. $2.35K is support, with $2.45K overhead.
For now, the market looks cautious, not panicked.
#NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve
The market is holding up better than I expected after the Fed hike.
$BTC is around $76.5K, while $ETH is near $2.47K and $SOL is around $101.5. OKX is showing large buy and sell orders appearing around these levels, which tells me the battle for direction is still active.
The Fed raised rates by 25bps, but crypto absorbed the initial shock without a major breakdown.
Now I’m watching one thing:
Can buyers keep absorbing the selling?
If yes, momentum can build.#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%
The real pressure on $BTC may be coming from U.S. Treasuries, not bears.
With the 10Y yield above 4.8% and a divided Fed, the macro backdrop remains challenging.
When risk-free yields approach 5%, Bitcoin needs a stronger narrative to compete for capital.
$ETH $SOL
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
SMART TRADERS AREN’T WATCHING THE RATE HIKE ANYMORE.
The Fed already made the decision.
+25 bps → 3.75%–4.00%. �
Federal Reserve
Now comes the interesting part:
Does crypto absorb it?
If BTC holds → watch the reaction.
If BTC breaks → watch liquidity.
If BTC reclaims → watch whether volume confirms.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #NvidiaChipDoubleOutlook
#LongYields5%NewNormal Rate cuts aren't pulling long-term borrowing costs down 👀
The Fed cut 25bps, yet the 10-year returned near 5% and the 30-year stayed above it.
What caught my attention is the disconnect. Short rates can follow the Fed while long yields increasingly price growth, AI capital demand, inflation and term premium independently.
If 5% becomes the new floor, the real question isn't how fast the Fed cuts. It's how expensive capital stays for stocks, AI and crypto.
Why crypto is pumping
The hike was already priced in, so the sell-off happened ahead of the print.
Shorts got squeezed, oil cooled off, and altcoins led the move — especially ZEC, HYPE, and DeFi.
This doesn’t look like fresh liquidity entering the market. Rates actually moved higher, while ETFs are still seeing outflows.
$80K BTC remains the key level.
For now, this looks more like a relief rally than a regime change.
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
Everyone expected a rate hike to hurt risk assets.
But the opposite happened.
US stocks had their best day in six weeks, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.93%.
That tells us something:
Markets don’t only react to the rate decision.
They react to what the decision says about future inflation and Fed credibility.
For BTC, watch inflation expectations and long-term yields—not just the headline rate.
Is the market starting to trust the Fed again?
$BTC x $ETH post-Fed 📊
Fed delivered a 25bps hike, unanimous, with Warsh sounding hawkish. The move was largely priced in—no major dump, but no breakout either.
$BTC ~ $75.8K, wick to $75.3K. $75K is key support; lose it and $73K comes into focus. Bulls need $77.5K back.
$ETH ~ $2.38K, holding $2.37K–$2.43K. $2.45K resistance, $2.35K floor.#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The Fed just hiked 25bp for the first time in over three years — and markets are already pricing another one in October at 55.4% 📈
The dot plot isn't subtle: most officials expect at least one more hike this year. This wasn't a one-and-done 👀
The inflation drivers keeping them hawkish: energy (Brent near $108), tariffs, and AI infrastructure spending that's injecting massive capex into the economy. All three persistent, none easy to solve with rate hikes alone 🫠
But here's the tension — growth, jobs, and earnings are all still resilient. The economy is absorbing higher rates better than most expected. Which raises the question: are stocks and BTC pricing in "one hike then pause," or genuinely comfortable with a prolonged higher-rate environment? 🤔
10-year yield above 5%. 30-year mortgage at 6.95%. These aren't small numbers 📉
First hike in three years, October odds already at 55% — is the market right to shrug this off, or is the real pain still ahead? 👇