Global Macro Guidance for August 17–23: The data has already provided the answer; the U.S. economy has shifted from "anti-inflation" to "stall prevention." This week requires verification, with the July FOMC meeting minutes feedback on the Fed's future expectations becoming the focus. Crude oil and Japan remain the two major external risks and continue to be latent key risks! The macro environment this week is not optimistic. Market anchors are mainly energy and inflation expectations, while the U.S. economy has already moved from anti-inflation expectations to the dangerous edge of stall prevention. If the already fragile economic expectations for energy rebound, beware of rising "stagflation" expectations. The biggest macro change this week is the shift from macro data to policy interpretation and verification. Last week, our macro data provided three answers: Has inflation spiraled out of control again? Temporarily, no. Has U.S. demand weakened? Yes, and significantly more than market expectations. Is the soft landing expectation valid? The short-term soft landing expectation has been shaken. This week, the data interpretation and verification aim to answer three questions: How hawkish was the July Fed meeting minutes? Is the Fed alert to the risk of economic stall? How does the Fed view the risks of inflation and economic stall? Is the U.S. consumer economy experiencing a short-term stall or an expansion of systemic risk? Are crude oil and Japan reintroducing overall inflation or even U.S. stagflation expectations, as well as liquidity risks!? First, the Fed meeting minutes: How hawkish was July? What were the hawkish focuses? Did it interpret employment risks? Did it anticipate economic stall risks in advance? There are no scheduled Fed official speeches this week, and Wash has no speaking agenda, which means that in the face of last week's data, the market cannot promptly obtain Fed officials'...

August 19 Latest US-Iran Developments Summary and Analysis: Facing escalating Iranian diplomatic and military pressure, Trump has little time left. Is it all in? Or seeking compromise? There are not many options for Trump to mediate! 1. Iran crossed UAE airspace to conduct cross-regional interference in the Strait, causing a missile to fall into UAE territorial waters, provoking UAE's dissatisfaction and leading to a temporary suspension of foreign trade, financial, and commercial activities with Iran. The US-Iran geopolitical risk clearly shows signs of spillover, increasing risks in overseas regions. #成品油价差破百，能源通胀会否回升 2. Qatar's diplomatic spokesperson for the first time clarified the precondition for US-Iran negotiations — the Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement. The spokesperson stated that the Iran-Oman Strait agreement is simpler than the US-Iran negotiations. 3. Following Saudi Arabia, Iraq officially established a mechanism to "bypass the Strait of Hormuz for crude oil exports." The actions of these two important Gulf countries undoubtedly heighten concerns about the US-Iran region, further lowering expectations that Strait navigation equals energy supply restoration. 4. Kpler data shows that on Tuesday, 6 cargo ships passed through the Strait, lower than Monday's 9 ships. However, the good news is that a VLCC large empty tanker passed through the Oman side into the Strait, meaning that although overall navigation is sluggish, large vessels are still tentatively entering. 5. Iran stated that if Trump expands military actions against Iran, Iran will retaliate against European US military bases. This is a typical escalation of military pressure, combined with Iran's recent statement shifting from a defensive to an offensive strategy, the whole

Policy benefits are driving the price up, but BTC is not yet at a fully optimistic stage! Today is a rare case where the US stock market and #Bitcoin show opposite trends, and given the unfavorable macro environment, this is clearly due to the exclusive crypto benefits—the White House crypto meeting on August 19 #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ This meeting is obviously Trump’s attempt to push crypto reform through SEC and CFTC administrative regulatory measures after seeing the "Clarity Act" stalled in Congress. Remember on August 12, SEC Chair Gary Gensler tried to push the "Cryptocurrency Regulation" administrative bill toward an SEC meeting, but it was quickly canceled due to a "scheduling conflict," showing the difficulty in advancing the bill. The biggest issue for the SEC is still the unresolved conflict with the CFTC over crypto regulation. This White House crypto meeting, with Trump taking the lead now, is likely to focus on how to delineate SEC and CFTC regulatory responsibilities, which can be seen as the best contingency plan to prevent the "Clarity Act" from failing. So for crypto, this is an exclusive industry benefit. However, although the benefits have driven #BTC’s rise, the overall trend has not yet turned fully optimistic. The first issue is that ETF inflows have not been confirmed to be increasing; secondly, BTC remains in a low liquidity phase recently. This rebound is more likely caused by short covering. Currently, around 65,000

Home Depot, as the world's largest furniture, building materials, and home decoration retailer, kicked off this week's earnings season. It turns out that the earnings reports of consumer giants are not overly concerning, especially amid the trend of AI narratives. However, due to the unexpected weakness in U.S. consumer data last week, the market needs to verify the actual state of U.S. consumption through various signals. As a retail giant, Home Depot has become a key focus this week. The earnings report was generally good, with revenue exceeding expectations, strong year-over-year growth, EPS beating estimates, global same-store sales improving, and U.S. same-store sales strengthening. But one key factor must be excluded from this report: Home Depot received a $730 million tariff refund, of which $685 million was accounted for as a reduction in cost of sales. #财报观察员：小米Q2财报出炉，是汽车救场还是手机拖后腿？ Home Depot's earnings report sends several signals to the market: 1. The U.S. real estate market remains weak, but demand for home repairs has not collapsed. High interest rates suppress consumers' home-buying demand, leading them to spend money on repairs, maintenance, or small renovations. 2. Data shows that U.S. home demand has entered a cautious weakening phase, with large renovations postponed, high-ticket projects approached cautiously, maintenance continuing, and small improvement projects temporarily stable. Clearly, from the home industry perspective, the U.S. economy is weakening but has not yet experienced a cliff-like drop. 3. Home Depot maintains its full-year guidance, which is logical: high interest rates suppress home-buying demand, which increases rigid consumption of home products, so Home Depot is confident in its future guidance

August 18 Latest Developments and Analysis on US-Iran: Whether the US Military Strikes or Not, Trump Has Already Lost This War! 1. Iranian officials signal military conflict, counter-threatening the US that if it does not comply within the stipulated period, the flames of war will reignite. From diplomatic pressure to military pressure, Iran's intensity is increasing, starting the countdown to US-Iran military risk #黄金站上4430美元，期权资金转向看涨 2. Houthi forces have begun attacking Saudi warships near the Red Sea, clearly spilling over US-Iran geopolitical risks, 3. Media reports that Saudi Aramco has significantly expanded its crude oil export system bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, clearly preparing for the worst-case scenario of a prolonged unfavorable US-Iran situation. 4. Turkish President Erdogan spoke with Trump, requesting to act as a regional mediator in the US-Iran situation. As a NATO member bordering Iran, this signal means Europe can no longer sit still and is beginning to try to participate in US-Iran mediation through proxies. This is seen as a positive signal but is unlikely to show results in the short term. 5. Kpler statistics show that on Monday, 6 cargo ships passed through the strait, but no VLCC or large LNG tankers, and the usual recovery numbers only count as a rebound rather than a full recovery; the actual situation remains unfavorable. 6. On Tuesday, August 18, a cargo ship attempting to pass through the strait was attacked. It is not yet confirmed whether this was an attack by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The reappearance of suspected attacks at this stage undoubtedly adds to the insecurity of strait passage. 7. Reuters reported that between August 12-16, Saudi Aramco has attempted to load 3 VLCCs